State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Hepatitis B virus genotyping among chronic hepatitis B patients with resistance to treatment with lamivudine in the City of Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo

INTRODUCTION: Lamivudine is a nucleoside analogue that is used clinically for treating chronic hepatitis B infection. However, the main problem with prolonged use of lamivudine is the development of viral resistance to the treatment. Mutations in the YMDD motif of the hepatitis B virus DNA polymerase gene have been associated with resistance to drug therapy. So far, there have not been many studies in Brazil reporting on genotype-dependent development of resistance to lamivudine. Thus, the aim of the present study was to determine the possible correlation between a certain genotype and increased development of resistance to lamivudine among chronic hepatitis B patients. METHODS: HBV DNA in samples from 50 patients under lamivudine treatment was amplified by means of conventional PCR. Samples were collected at Hospital das Clínicas, FMRP-USP. The products were then sequenced and phylogenetic analysis was performed. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 29 (58%) patients were infected with genotype D, 20 (40%) with genotype A and one (2%) with genotype F. Mutations in the YMDD motif occurred in 20% of the patients with genotype A and 27.6% of the patients with genotype D. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the small number of samples, our results indicated that mutations in the YMDD motif were 1.38 times more frequent in genotype D than in genotype A.

Sand fly captures with Disney traps in area of occurrence of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, mid-western Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The work was conducted to study phlebotomine fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) and aspects of American cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission in a forested area where Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis occurs, situated in the municipality of Bela Vista, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: The captures were conducted with modified Disney traps, using hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) as bait, from May 2004 to January 2006. RESULTS: Ten species of phlebotomine sandflies were captured: Brumptomyia avellari, Brumptomyia brumpti, Bichromomyia flaviscutellata, Evandromyia bourrouli, Evandromyia lenti, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psathyromyia campograndensis, Psathyromyia punctigeniculata, Psathyromyia shannoni and Sciopemyia sordellii. The two predominant species were Ev bourrouli (57.3%) and Bi flaviscutellata (41.4%), present at all sampling sites. Two of the 36 hamsters used as bait presented natural infection with Leishmania. The parasite was identified as Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the results revealed the efficiency of Disney traps for capturing Bichromomyia flaviscutellata and the simultaneous presence of both vector and the Leishmania species transmitted by the same can be considered a predictive factor of the occurrence of leishmaniasis outbreaks for the human population that occupies the location.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus infection and associated factors among prison inmates in state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of HBV infection and associated factors among prison inmates in Campo Grande, MS. METHODS: A total of 408 individuals were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, associated factors and HBV vaccination using a standardized questionnaire. Blood samples were collected from all participants and serological markers for HBV were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and/or antibodies against hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) positive samples were tested for HBV-DNA by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of HBV infection was 17.9% (95%CI: 14.4-22.0). The HBsAg carrier rate was 0.5%; 56 (13.7%) individuals had been infected and developed natural immunity and 15 (3.7%) were positive for anti-HBc only. Ninety eight (24%) prisoners had only anti-HBs, suggesting that they had low vaccine coverage. An occult HBV infection rate of 0% was verified among anti-HBc-positive individuals. Multivariate analysis of associated factors showed that age > 35 years-old, low schooling level and illicit drug use are significantly associated with HBV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the data showed HBV infection prevalence similar or slightly lower than that reported in other of Brazilian prisons. Independent predictors of HBV infection in this population include older age, low schooling level and illicit drug use.

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Determination of the most suitable oil pipeline route using GIS least cost path analysis

The Keystone XL has a big role for transforming Canadian oil to the USA. The function of the pipeline is decreasing the dependency of the American oil industry on other countries and it will help to limit external debt. The proposed pipeline seeks the most suitable route which cannot damage agricultural and natural water recourses such as the Ogallala Aquifer. Using the Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the suggested path in this study got extremely high correct results that will help in the future to use the least cost analysis for similar studies. The route analysis contains different weighted overlay surfaces, each, was influenced by various criteria (slope, geology, population and land use). The resulted least cost path routes for each weighted overlay surface were compared with the original proposed pipeline and each displayed surface was more effective than the proposed Keystone XL pipeline.

Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes among different exposure categories in the State of Pará, Brazilian Amazon

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies concerning HCV genotypic distribution in the Brazilian Amazon are scarce. Thus, this study determined the patterns of distribution of HCV genotypes among different exposure categories in the State of Pará, Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 312 HCV-infected individuals belonging to different categories of exposure, who were attended at the HEMOPA, CENPREN and a private hemodialysis clinic in Belém. They were tested for HCV antibodies using an immunoenzymatic test, RNA-HCV, using real-time PCR and HCV genotyping through phylogenetic analysis of the 5' UTR. The population groups were epidemiologically characterized according to data collected in a brief interview or medical consultation. RESULTS: Genotype 1 predominated in all the different categories of HCV exposure. HCV genotypic distribution among blood donors comprised genotypes 1 (94%) and 3 (6%). All patients with chronic hematologic diseases had HCV genotype 1. The genotypic distribution in illicit-drug users comprised genotypes 1 (59.6%) and 3 (40.4%). In patients under hemodialysis, genotypes 1 (90.1%), 2 (3.3%), and 3 (6.6%) were detected. Finally, the frequency of genotypes 1 and 3 was significantly different between the groups: BD and DU, PUH and DU, PUH and PCHD and PCHD and DU. CONCLUSIONS: The genotypic frequency and distribution of HCV in different categories of exposure in the State of Pará showed a predominance of genotype 1, regardless of the possible risk of infection.

First report of rabies infection in bats, Molossus molossus, Molossops neglectus and Myotis riparius in the city of São Paulo, State of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This paper presents the first report of rabies in three bat species, Molossus molossus, Molossops neglectus and Myotis riparius in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Bats were diagnosed as positive for rabies using the fluorescent antibody test and mouse inoculation test. The isolates were characterized antigenically using a panel of eight monoclonal antibodies. The samples were also genetically analyzed by partial sequencing of the portion of nucleoprotein gene between positions 1157 and 1445nt. RESULTS: Analysis of the results verified that the sample isolated from the species M. molossus presented antigenic variant 6, while the other two samples showed a different profile from that established in the panel, one not previously reported in the literature. The results of genetic analysis revealed that the M. molossus sample segregated with Lasiurus sp. isolates, M. neglectus segregated with a subgroup of Eptesicus furinalis isolates and the Myotis riparius sample segregated with Myotis sp. isolates. CONCLUSIONS: The cases reported in this paper emphasize the need for clarification of the circumstances in which cases of rabies in wildlife occur, principally in urban areas.

Prevalence of intestinal parasites in preschool children in the region of Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Children are an important high-risk group for helminth and protozoa infections. Daycare centers are environments where children have proven to be more susceptible to acquiring intestinal parasites. Thus, the purpose of this study was to verify the prevalence of intestinal parasites in children who attended the two daycare centers maintained by the local government of Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: Fecal samples were collected from 133 children (73 children at the Public Preschool for Early Childhood Education, PPECE A, and 60 at the PPECE B) following identification according to sex and age and agreement to participate by parents or guardians who signed the free, informed consent form. The samples were examined by the Lutz method. RESULTS: Coproparasitological tests performed on 133 children showed that 29.3% of them were parasitized for enteroparasites or commensals, 6.7% of the children presented polyparasitism. Among the protozoa, Giardia lamblia were the most prevalent and Hymenolepis nana were the most frequent among the helminths. CONCLUSIONS: Thus, analysis of the results showed that intestinal parasites still represent a public health problem, especially among children and in areas where the socioeconomic and educational conditions are less favorable.

Study of infection by Rickettsiae of the spotted fever group in humans and ticks in an urban park located in the City of Londrina, State of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Spotted fevers are emerging zoonoses caused by Rickettsia species in the spotted fever group (SFG). Rickettsia rickettsii is the main etiologic agent of Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) and it is transmitted by Amblyomma spp. ticks. METHODS: The study aimed to investigate SFG rickettsiae in the Arthur Thomas Municipal Park in Londrina, PR, by collecting free-living ticks and ticks from capybaras and blood samples from personnel working in these areas. Samples from A. dubitatum and A. cajennense were submitted for PCR in pools to analyze the Rickettsia spp. gltA (citrate synthase gene). RESULTS: All the pools analyzed were negative. Human sera were tested by indirect immunofluorescence assay with R. rickettsii and R. parkeri as antigens. Among the 34 sera analyzed, seven (20.6%) were reactive for R. rickettsii: four of these had endpoint titers equal to 64, 2 titers were 128 and 1 titer was 256. None of the samples were reactive for R. parkeri. An epidemiological questionnaire was applied to the park staff, but no statistically significant associations were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The serological studies suggest the presence of Rickettsiae related to SFG that could be infecting the human population studied; however, analysis of the ticks collected was unable to determine which species may be involved in transmission to humans.

Seroepidemiological study of human cysticercosis with blood samples collected on filter paper, in Lages, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2004-2005

INTRODUCTION: Human serofrequency of antibodies against Taenia solium antigens was determined and risk factors for cysticercosis transmission were identified. METHODS: Individuals (n=878) from periurban and rural locations of Lages, SC, were interviewed to gather demographic, sanitary and health information. Interviews and blood sample collections by finger prick on Whatman filter paper were performed from August 2004 to May 2005. Observation determined that 850 samples were suitable for analysis and were tested by ELISA using vesicular fluid of Taenia crassiceps heterologous antigen. To ensure the reliability of the results, 77 samples of the dried blood were matched with sera. The reactive samples were submitted to a serum confirmatory immunoblot (IB) test using purified Taenia crassiceps glycoproteins. RESULTS: The ELISA results for the dried blood and serum samples were statistically consistent. ELISA was positive in 186 (21.9%) out of 850 individuals. A group of 213 individuals were asked to collect vein blood for IB (186 with positive result in ELISA and 27 with inappropriate whole blood samples) and 130 attended the request. The IB was positive in 29 (3.4%) out of 850 individuals. A significant correlation (p = 0.0364) was determined among individuals who tested positive in the IB assay who practiced both pig rearing and kitchen gardening. CONCLUSIONS: ELISA with dried blood eluted from filter paper was suitable for cysticercosis population surveys. In Lages, human infection was associated with pig rearing and kitchen gardening. The prevalence index was compatible with other Latin American endemic areas.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Epidemiological factors related to the transmission risk of Trypanosoma cruzi in a Quilombola community, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This work was an epidemiological investigation of the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the rural Quilombola community of Furnas do Dionízio, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: Of the 71 animals examined, seven were captured (two opossums, Didelphis albiventris; four rats, Rattus rattus; and one nine-banded armadillo, Dasypus novemcinctus) and 64 were domestic (one canine, Canis familiaris; five pigs, Sus scrofa; two bovines, Bos taurus; five caprines, Capra sp.; and 51 ovines, Ovis aries). Parasitological tests were performed to detect parasites in the blood and to identify the morphology of flagellates. These methods included fresh examinations, buffy coat tests and blood cultures. Molecular analysis of DNA for identification of trypanosomatids was performed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with primers S35 and S36. RESULTS: The parasitological tests showed flagellates in an opossum and two cattle. The molecular tests showed DNA from T. cruzi in an opossum and a pig. Triatoma sordida was the only triatomine species found in the community, and it colonized households (four specimens) and the surrounding areas (124 specimens). Twenty-three specimens tested positive for flagellates, which were subsequently identified as T. cruzi by PCR. CONCLUSIONS: Data analysis demonstrated that T. cruzi has a peridomestic life cycle that involves both domestic and wild mammals.

Atypical lymphocytosis in leptospirosis: a cohort of hospitalized cases between 1996 and 2009 in State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease found in tropical and temperate countries, and its clinical diagnostic confusion with arboviruses (dengue fever, oropouche fever and yellow fever), Brazilian spotted fever, viral hepatitis and hantaviruses has been an ongoing public health concern. The aim of this observational study was to demonstrate an association between findings of atypical lymphocytosis and the progression of endemic leptospirosis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on the demographic, epidemiological, clinical and laboratory aspects of 27 human leptospirosis cases that occurred over a period of 13 years (1996-2009) with no reported epidemic outbreaks in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 11.1% in our cohort of hospitalized cases. However, there was no mortality among patients with atypical lymphocytosis (OR = 11.1; 95% CI = 1.12-110.9; p = 0.04). Two patients who were in the septicemic phase showed signs of expansion of γδ T cell responses in peripheral blood. CONCLUSIONS: Atypical lymphocytosis may be observed in patients with leptospirosis. Our observations suggest that these atypical leukocyte subsets are associated with partial protection during the disease course of leptospirosis.

Epidemiological aspects of dengue in Aracaju, State of Sergipe, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The dengue fever remains to be a disease of serious public health concern, and its incidence has increased in the past decades. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological incidence of dengue in the period 2001-2010. METHODS: This is an epidemiological study of dengue in the municipality of Aracaju, state of Sergipe, in the period between 2001 and 2010, whose data were obtained from the Information System of Diseases Notifications. A descriptive analysis of the number of confirmed cases of dengue, according to year, semester, sanitary district, age, and sex, was performed. RESULTS: There were 16,462 confirmed cases, especially in 2008, which obtained the highest incidence of the disease, with 10,485 confirmed cases. The first semester obtained the highest registration of cases during the years of research; this was predominated by females between 15 and 49 years old. With regard to the territorial distribution, the second district of the municipality obtained the highest number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: In 2008, in the City of Aracaju, SE, a significant increase in the proportion of dengue cases compared with other years was verified. However, a fast decline in the other years was observed, possibly because of the intensification of preventive actions to combat the mosquito that transmits the dengue virus.