Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Relationship between national culture, democracy and environmental performance: A panel data analysis

This paper demonstrates the significance of culture in examining the relationshipbetween democratic capital and environmental performance.The aim is to examine the relationship among scores on the Environmental Performance Index and the two dimensions of cross cultural variation suggested by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Significantional interrelationships among democracy, cultural and environmental sustaintability measures could be found, following the regression results. Firstly, higher levels of democratic capital stock are associated with better environmental performance. Secondly importance to distinguish between cultural groups could be confirmed.

A method to correct the flow distortion of offshore wind data using CFD simulation and experimental wind tunnel tests

The assessment of wind energy resource for the development of deep offshore wind plants requires the use of every possible source of data and, in many cases, includes data gathered at meteorological stations installed at islands, islets or even oil platforms—all structures that interfere with, and change, the flow characteristics. This work aims to contribute to the evaluation of such changes in the flow by developing a correction methodology and applying it to the case of Berlenga island, Portugal. The study is performed using computational fluid dynamic simulations (CFD) validated by wind tunnel tests. In order to simulate the incoming offshore flow with CFD models a wind profile, unknown a priori, was established using observations from two coastal wind stations and a power law wind profile was fitted to the existing data (a=0.165). The results show that the resulting horizontal wind speed at 80 m above sea level is 16% lower than the wind speed at 80 m above the island for the dominant wind direction sector.

Injuries caused by aquatic animals in Brazil: an analysis of the data present in the information system for notifiable diseases

AbstractINTRODUCTION:We present a review of injuries in humans caused by aquatic animals in Brazil using the Information System for Notifiable Diseases [ Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN)] database.METHODS:A descriptive and retrospective epidemiological study was conducted from 2007 to 2013.RESULTS:A total of 4,118 accidents were recorded. Of these accidents, 88.7% (3,651) were caused by venomous species, and 11.3% (467) were caused by poisonous, traumatic or unidentified aquatic animals. Most of the events were injuries by stingrays (69%) and jellyfish (13.1%). The North region was responsible for the majority of reports (66.2%), with a significant emphasis on accidents caused by freshwater stingrays (92.2% or 2,317 cases). In the South region, the region with the second highest number of records (15.7%), jellyfish caused the majority of accidents (83.7% or 452 cases). The Northeastern region, with 12.5% of the records, was notable because almost all accidents were caused by toadfish (95.6% or 174 cases).CONCLUSIONS:Although a comparison of different databases has not been performed, the data presented in this study, compared to local and regional surveys, raises the hypothesis of underreporting of accidents. As the SINAN is the official system for the notification of accidents by venomous animals in Brazil, it is imperative that its operation be reviewed and improved, given that effective measures to prevent accidents by venomous animals depend on a reliable database and the ability to accurately report the true conditions.

Description of continuous data using bar graphs: a misleading approach

INTRODUCTION:With the ease provided by current computational programs, medical and scientific journals use bar graphs to describe continuous data.METHODS:This manuscript discusses the inadequacy of bars graphs to present continuous data.RESULTS:Simulated data show that box plots and dot plots are more-feasible tools to describe continuous data.CONCLUSIONS:These plots are preferred to represent continuous variables since they effectively describe the range, shape, and variability of observations and clearly identify outliers. By contrast, bar graphs address only measures of central tendency. Bar graphs should be used only to describe qualitative data.

Malaria epidemiology in the State of Piauí, Northeastern Brazil: a retrospective study with secondary data

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Malaria is not considered endemic in State of Piauí. METHODS Malaria epidemiology was examined using surveillance data. RESULTS: During 2002-2013, of the 484 cases of malaria, 217 were classified as probably acquired in Piauí, most frequently in the Campo Largo, Buriti dos Lopes, and Luzilândia municipalities, and 267 were considered probably imported, from the States of Pará, Maranhão, Amazonas, Roraima, and Rondônia. Probably-imported cases occurred throughout the year, while 80.2% of the probably-acquired cases occurred in April-August, peaking at the end of the rainy season. CONCLUSIONS Malaria surveillance should be intensified. Further ecoepidemiological and entomological studies are needed.

Pressure sores among malnourished necropsied adults - preliminary data

Pressure sores are common among bedridden, elderly, or malnourished patients, and may occur in terminal ill patients because of impaired mobility, fecal or urinary incontinence, and decreased healing capacity. The aim of this study was to compare frequency of pressure sores between malnourished and non-malnourished necropsied adults. METHOD: All (n = 201) adults (age ³ 18 years) autopsied between 1986 and 1996 at the Teaching Hospital of Triangulo Mineiro Medical School (Uberaba) were eligible for the study. Gender, race, weight, height and main diagnoses were recorded. Ninety-six cases were excluded because of probable body water retention (congestive heart failure, hepatic insufficiency, nephrotic syndrome) or pressure sores secondary to peripheral vascular ischemia. Body mass index (BMI) was used to define malnourished (BMI < 18.5 kg/m²) and non-malnourished (BMI > 18.5kg/m²) groups. RESULTS: Except for weight (42.5kg; range: 28-57 vs. 60; 36-134.5kg) and BMI (16.9; range: 12.4-18.5 vs. 22.7; range: 18.5-54.6kg/m²), respectively, there were no statistical differences among 43 malnourished and 62 non-malnourished cases in relation to age (54.9 ± 20.4 vs. 52.9 ± 17.9 years), percentage of white persons (74.4 vs. 64.5%), male gender (76.7 vs. 69.3%) and main diagnoses. Five malnourished (11.6%) and 7 (11.5%) non-malnourished cases had pressure sores (p=0.89). CONCLUSION: Pressure sores were equally common findings in necropsied persons with protein-energy malnutrition, as assessed by body mass index.