Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Time for change: a roadmap to guide the implementation of the World Anti-Doping Code 2015

A medical and scientific multidisciplinary consensus meeting was held from 29 to 30 November 2013 on Anti-Doping in Sport at the Home of FIFA in Zurich, Switzerland, to create a roadmap for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. The consensus statement and accompanying papers set out the priorities for the antidoping community in research, science and medicine. The participants achieved consensus on a strategy for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. Key components of this strategy include: (1) sport-specific risk assessment, (2) prevalence measurement, (3) sport-specific test distribution plans, (4) storage and reanalysis, (5) analytical challenges, (6) forensic intelligence, (7) psychological approach to optimise the most deterrent effect, (8) the Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) and confounding factors, (9) data management system (Anti-Doping Administration & Management System (ADAMS), (10) education, (11) research needs and necessary advances, (12) inadvertent doping and (13) management and ethics: biological data. True implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code will depend largely on the ability to align thinking around these core concepts and strategies. FIFA, jointly with all other engaged International Federations of sports (Ifs), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), are ideally placed to lead transformational change with the unwavering support of the wider antidoping community. The outcome of the consensus meeting was the creation of the ad hoc Working Group charged with the responsibility of moving this agenda forward.

Anatomical distribution of areas of preserved cartilage in advanced femorotibial osteoarthritis using CT arthrography (Part 1).

OBJECTIVE: To determine subregions of normal and abnormal cartilage in advanced stages of femorotibial osteoarthritis (OA) by mapping the entire femorotibial joint in a cohort of pre-total knee replacement (TKR) OA knees. DESIGN: We defined an areal subdivision of the femorotibial articular cartilage surface on CT arthrography (CTA), allowing the division of the femorotibial articular surface into multiple (up to n = 204 per knee) subregions and the comparison of the same areas between different knees. Two readers independently classified each cartilage area as normal, abnormal or non-assessable in 41 consecutive pre-TKR OA knees. RESULTS: A total of 6447 cartilage areas (from 41 knees) were considered assessable by both readers. The average proportion of preserved cartilage was lower in the medial femorotibial joint than in the lateral femorotibial joint for both readers (32.0/69.8% and 33.9/68.5% (medial/lateral) for reader 1 and 2 respectively, all P < 0.001). High frequencies of normal cartilage were observed at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle (up to 89%), and the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment (up to 100%). The posterior aspect of the medial condyle was the area that most frequently exhibited preserved cartilage in the medial femorotibial joint, contrasting with the high frequency of cartilage lesions in the rest of that compartment. CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle, and at the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment, may be frequently preserved in advanced grades of OA.

Debris flows as a factor of hillslope evolution controlled by a continuous or a pulse process?

Flood effectiveness observations imply that two families of processes describe the formation of debris flow volume. One is related to the rainfall?erosion relationship, and can be seen as a gradual process, and one is related to additional geological/geotechnical events, those named hereafter extraordinary events. In order to discuss the hypothesis of coexistence of two modes of volume formation, some methodologies are applied. Firstly, classical approaches consisting in relating volume to catchments characteristics are considered. These approaches raise questions about the quality of the data rather than providing answers concerning the controlling processes. Secondly, we consider statistical approaches (cumulative number of events distribution and cluster analysis) and these suggest the possibility of having two distinct families of processes. However the quantitative evaluation of the threshold differs from the one that could be obtained from the first approach, but they all agree in the sense of the coexistence of two families of events. Thirdly, a conceptual model is built exploring how and why debris flow volume in alpine catchments changes with time. Depending on the initial condition (sediment production), the model shows that large debris flows (i.e. with important volume) are observed in the beginning period, before a steady-state is reached. During this second period debris flow volume such as is observed in the beginning period is not observed again. Integrating the results of the three approaches, two case studies are presented showing: (1) the possibility to observe in a catchment large volumes that will never happen again due to a drastic decrease in the sediment availability, supporting its difference from gradual erosion processes; (2) that following a rejuvenation of the sediment storage (by a rock avalanche) the magnitude?frequency relationship of a torrent can be differentiated into two phases, the beginning one with large and frequent debris flow and a later one with debris flow less intense and frequent, supporting the results of the conceptual model. Although the results obtained cannot identify a clear threshold between the two families of processes, they show that some debris flows can be seen as pulse of sediment differing from that expected from gradual erosion.

Is it the grain size or the characteristic pore size that controls the induced polarization relaxation time of clean sands and sandstones?

There is a wide range of evidence to suggest that permeability can be constrained through of induced polarization measurements. For clean sands and sandstones, current mechanistic models of induced polarization predict a relationship between the low-frequency time constant inferred from induced polarization measurements and the grain diameter. A number of observations do, however, disagree with this and indicate that the observed relaxation behavior is rather governed by the so-called dynamic pore radius L. To test this hypothesis, we have developed a set of new scaling relationships, which allow the relaxation time to be computed from the pore size and the permeability to be computed from both the Cole-Cole time constant and the formation factor. Moreover, these new scaling relationships can be also used to predict the dependence of the Cole-Cole time constant as a function of the water saturation under unsaturated conditions. Comparative tests of the proposed new relationships with regard to various published experimental results for saturated clean sands and sandstones as well as for partially saturated clean sandstones, do indeed confirm that the dynamic pore radius L is a much more reliable indicator of the observed relaxation behavior than grain-size-based models.

Tuning In to Sound: Frequency-Selective Attentional Filter in Human Primary Auditory Cortex.

Cocktail parties, busy streets, and other noisy environments pose a difficult challenge to the auditory system: how to focus attention on selected sounds while ignoring others? Neurons of primary auditory cortex, many of which are sharply tuned to sound frequency, could help solve this problem by filtering selected sound information based on frequency-content. To investigate whether this occurs, we used high-resolution fMRI at 7 tesla to map the fine-scale frequency-tuning (1.5 mm isotropic resolution) of primary auditory areas A1 and R in six human participants. Then, in a selective attention experiment, participants heard low (250 Hz)- and high (4000 Hz)-frequency streams of tones presented at the same time (dual-stream) and were instructed to focus attention onto one stream versus the other, switching back and forth every 30 s. Attention to low-frequency tones enhanced neural responses within low-frequency-tuned voxels relative to high, and when attention switched the pattern quickly reversed. Thus, like a radio, human primary auditory cortex is able to tune into attended frequency channels and can switch channels on demand.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

Production of nanometric particles in radio frequency glow discharges in mixtures of silane and methane

The formation of silicon particles in rf glow discharges has attracted attention due to their effect as a contaminant during film deposition or etching. However, silicon and silicon alloy powders produced by plasma¿enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) are promising new materials for sintering ceramics, for making nanoscale filters, or for supporting catalytic surfaces. Common characteristics of these powders are their high purity and the easy control of their stoichiometry through the composition of the precursor gas mixture. Plasma parameters also influence their structure. Nanometric powders of silicon¿carbon alloys exhibiting microstructural properties such as large hydrogen content and high surface/volume ratio have been produced in a PECVD reactor using mixtures of silane and methane at low pressure (-1 Torr) and low frequency square¿wave modulated rf power (13.56 MHz). The a¿Si1¿xCx:H powders were obtained from different precursor gas mixtures, from R=0.05 to R=9, where R=[SiH4]/([SiH4]+[CH4]). The structure of the a¿Si1¿xCx:H powder was analyzed by several techniques. The particles appeared agglomerated, with a wide size distribution between 5 and 100 nm. The silane/methane gas mixture determined the vibrational features of these powders in the infrared. Silicon-hydrogen groups were present for every gas composition, whereas carbon¿hydrogen and silicon¿carbon bonds appeared in methane¿rich mixtures (R-0.6). The thermal desorption of hydrogen revealed two main evolutions at about 375 and 660¿°C that were ascribed to hydrogen bonded to silicon and carbon, respectively. The estimated hydrogen atom concentration in the sample was about 50%.

Ambulatory assessment of 3D ground reaction force using plantar pressure distribution.

This study aimed to use the plantar pressure insole for estimating the three-dimensional ground reaction force (GRF) as well as the frictional torque (T(F)) during walking. Eleven subjects, six healthy and five patients with ankle disease participated in the study while wearing pressure insoles during several walking trials on a force-plate. The plantar pressure distribution was analyzed and 10 principal components of 24 regional pressure values with the stance time percentage (STP) were considered for GRF and T(F) estimation. Both linear and non-linear approximators were used for estimating the GRF and T(F) based on two learning strategies using intra-subject and inter-subjects data. The RMS error and the correlation coefficient between the approximators and the actual patterns obtained from force-plate were calculated. Our results showed better performance for non-linear approximation especially when the STP was considered as input. The least errors were observed for vertical force (4%) and anterior-posterior force (7.3%), while the medial-lateral force (11.3%) and frictional torque (14.7%) had higher errors. The result obtained for the patients showed higher error; nevertheless, when the data of the same patient were used for learning, the results were improved and in general slight differences with healthy subjects were observed. In conclusion, this study showed that ambulatory pressure insole with data normalization, an optimal choice of inputs and a well-trained nonlinear mapping function can estimate efficiently the three-dimensional ground reaction force and frictional torque in consecutive gait cycle without requiring a force-plate.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Systèmes de délivrance des médicaments pour le segment antérieur: bases fondamentales et applications cliniques [Drug delivery systems to target the anterior segment of the eye: fundamental bases and clinical applications].

The development of new drug delivery systems to target the anterior segment of the eye may offer many advantages: to increase the biodisponibility of the drug, to allow the penetration of drug that cannot be formulated as solutions, to obtain constant and sustained drug release, to achieve higher local concentrations without systemic effects, to target more specifically one tissue or cell type, to reduce the frequency of instillation and therefore increase the observance and comfort of the patient while reducing side effects of frequent instillation. Several approaches are developed, aiming to increase the corneal contact time by modified formulation or reservoir systems, or by increasing the tissue permeability using iontophoresis. To date, no ocular drug delivery system is ideal for all purposes. To maximize treatment efficacy, careful evaluation of the specific pathological condition, the targeted Intraocular tissue and the location of the most severe pathology must be made before selecting the method of delivery most suitable for each individual patient.

NR2A at CA1 synapses is obligatory for the susceptibility of hippocampal plasticity to sleep loss.

A loss in the necessary amount of sleep alters expression of genes and proteins implicated in brain plasticity, but key proteins that render neuronal circuits sensitive to sleep disturbance are unknown. We show that mild (4-6 h) sleep deprivation (SD) selectively augmented the number of NR2A subunits of NMDA receptors on postsynaptic densities of adult mouse CA1 synapses. The greater synaptic NR2A content facilitated induction of CA3-CA1 long-term depression in the theta frequency stimulation range and augmented the synaptic modification threshold. NR2A-knock-out mice maintained behavioral response to SD, including compensatory increase in post-deprivation resting time, but hippocampal synaptic plasticity was insensitive to sleep loss. After SD, the balance between synaptically activated and slowly recruited NMDA receptor pools during temporal summation was disrupted. Together, these results indicate that NR2A is obligatory for the consequences of sleep loss on hippocampal synaptic plasticity. These findings could advance pharmacological strategies aiming to sustain hippocampal function during sleep restriction.

Frequency and chronology of extraintestinal manifestations in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

Background: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is scarce, especially the one evaluating the time of occurrence of the EIM relative to IBD diagnosis. Aim: To assess the type and frequency of EIM in IBD patients and to evaluate when EIMs occur relative to IBD diagnosis. Methods: Analysis of data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort (SIBDCS) which collects data on a large sample of IBD patients from hospitals and private practices across Switzerland starting in 2005. While parametric data are shown as mean ± SD, non-parametric data are presented as median and interquartile range (IQR). Results: A total of 1143 patients were analyzed (572 (50%) female, mean age 42.1 ± 14.4 years): 629 (55%) with Crohn's disease (CD), 501 (44%) with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 13 (1%) with indeterminate colitis (IC). Of 1143 patients, 374 (32.7%) presented with EIM (65% with CD, 33% with UC, 2% with IC). Of those patients suffering from EIMs, 37.4% presented with one, 41.7% with two, 12.4% with three, 5.3% with four, and 3.2% with five EIM during their lifetime. The IBD patients initially presented with the following EIMs: peripheral arthritis (PA) 63.4%, ankylosing spondylitis (AS) 8.1%, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) 6.0%, uveitis 5.7%, oral aphthosis 5.7%, erythema nodosum (EN) 5.0%, pyoderma gangrenosum 1.8%, psoriasis 0.7%. While 92.9% of EIM occurred once IBD diagnosis was established (median 72 months, IQR 9-147 months, p < 0.001), 7.1% of EIMs preceded IBD diagnosis (median time 28 months before IBD diagnosis, IQR 7-60 months). Over a course of a lifetime, IBD patients presented with the following EIM (total exceeds 100 due to potential presence of multiple EIM): peripheral arthritis 69.3%, oral aphthosis 23%, ankylosing spondylitis 19.4%, uveitis 15.5%, erythema nodosum 14.5%, PSC 7.8%, pyoderma gangrenosum 6%, psoriasis 2.8%. Conclusion: EIMs frequently occur in a lifetime of IBD patients. The vast majority of patients present with EIMs once IBD diagnosis has been established. IBD patients most often present with peripheral arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and PSC as their first EIM. However, peripheral arthritis, oral aphthosis, and ankylosing spondylitis are the most common EIMs in a lifetime of IBD patients.