Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Mapping out customer segments and marketing channels in the Finnish Homelift market

Työn tavoitteena oli saada selville ketkä ovat uuden tuotteen, eli kotihissin asiakkaat. Mitkä ovat tuotteen mahdollisuudet Suomen markkinoilla ja onko markkinoilla odotettavissa kasvua, sekä miten tähän mahdolliseen kasvuun päästäisiin käsiksi. Kotihissin ominaisuudet vaikuttavat siihen, että se on tarkoitettu asennettavaksi yksityisiin pientaloihin. Uuden tuotteen ansiosta KONE voi liittää nykyiseen vahvaan toimialaansa, eli kerrostaloihin, uuden aluevaltauksen; Pientalot. Tämä 'laajentuminen' tuo mukanaan kuluttajamarkkinoiden haasteet. Markkinatilanteen selvittämiseen käyttin jo olemassa olevaa tietoa hyväkseni; sanomalehdistä markkinatutkimuksiin. Asiakasryhmät kartoitin tutustumalla messutapahtumissa saatuihin kontakteihin. Päätutkimusmenetelmänä käytin haastatteluja. Niihin osallistui kaikkiaan 14 vastaajaa. He vasatsivat kysymyksiin ostomotiiveista ja tuotteesta. Eräs haastattelujen tärkeimmistä teemoista liittyi yhteydenpito- ja jakelukanaviin, joista 12 vastaajaa antoivat mielipiteitään. Työni tulokset viittaavat siihen, että markkinatilanne näyttää positiiviselta KONEen kannalta. Tutkimuksesta sain selville kotihissin asiakassegmentit ja myös miten nämä potentiaaliset asiakkaat saadaan tehokkaimmin tavoitettua.

Prevalence of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients Suspected for Pulmonary Embolism or Acute Aortic Syndrome: Rationale for the Triple Rule-out Concept.

BACKGROUND: The aims of the study were to evaluate the prevalence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) among patients presenting with atypical chest pain who are evaluated for acute aortic syndrome (AAS) or pulmonary embolism (PE) with computed tomoangiography (CTA) and discuss the rationale for the use of triple rule-out (TRO) protocol for triaging these patients. METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis of patients presenting with atypical chest pain and evaluated with thoracic (CTA), for suspicion of AAS/PE. Two physicians reviewed patient files for demographic characteristics, initial CT and final clinical diagnosis. Patients were classified according to CTA finding into AAS, PE and other diagnoses and according to final clinical diagnosis into AAS, PE, ACS and other diagnoses. RESULTS: Four hundred and sixty-seven patients were evaluated: 396 (84.8%) patients for clinical suspicion of PE and 71 (15.2%) patients for suspicion of AAS. The prevalence of ACS and AAS was low among the PE patients: 5.5% and 0.5% respectively (P = 0.0001), while the prevalence of ACS and PE was 18.3% and 5.6% among AAS patients (P = 0.14 and P = 0.34 respectively). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of ACS and AAS among patients suspected clinically of having PE is limited while the prevalence of ACS and PE among patients suspected clinically of having AAS is significant. Accordingly patients suspected for PE could be evaluated with dedicated PE CTA while those suspected for AAS should still be triaged using TRO protocol.

Most of the Abundant Protein Fractions of Embryonic Cerebrospinal Fluid are Produced Out of the Brain Anlagen

The microenvironment of the central nervous system is important for neuronal function and development. During the early stages of embryo development the cephalic vesicles are filled by embryonic cerebrospinal fluid, a complex fluid containing different protein fractions, which contributes to the regulation of the survival, proliferation and neurogenesis of neuroectodermal stem cells. The protein content of embryonic cerebrospinal fluid from chick and rat embryos at the start of neurogenesis has already been determined. Most of the identified gene products are thought to be involved in the regulation of developmental processes during embryogenesis. However, due to the crucial roles played by embryonic cerebrospinal fluid during brain development, the embryological origin of the gene products it contains remains an intriguing question. According to the literature most of these products are synthesised in embryonic tissues other than the neuroepithelium. In this study we examined the embryological origin of the most abundant embryonic cerebrospinal fluid protein fractions by means of slot-blot analysis and by using several different embryonic and extraembryonic protein extracts, immunodetected with polyclonal antibodies. This first attempt to elucidate their origin is not based on the proteins identified by proteomic methods, but rather on crude protein fractions detected by SDS-PAGE analysis and to which polyclonal antibodies were specifically generated. Despite some of the limitations of this study, i.e. that one protein fraction may contain more than one gene product, and that a specific gene product may be contained in different protein fractions depending on post-translational modifications, our results show that most of the analysed protein fractions are not produced by the cephalic neuroectoderm but are rather stored in the egg reservoir; furthermore, few are produced by embryo tissues, thus indicating that they must be transported from their production or storage sites to the cephalic cavities, most probably via embryonic serum. These results raise the question as to whether the transfer of proteins from these two embryo compartments is regulated at this early developmental stage.

Voyage into the Golden Screen

Digitoitu 19. 9. 2008.