Using one-year claim development to chose a large claim reserving technique

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

Ivabradine Improves Heart Rate Variability in Patients with Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background: Ivabradine is a novel specific heart rate (HR)-lowering agent that improves event-free survival in patients with heart failure (HF). Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the effect of ivabradine on time domain indices of heart rate variability (HRV) in patients with HF. Methods: Forty-eight patients with compensated HF of nonischemic origin were included. Ivabradine treatment was initiated according to the latest HF guidelines. For HRV analysis, 24-h Holter recording was obtained from each patient before and after 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine. Results: The mean RR interval, standard deviation of all normal to normal RR intervals (SDNN), the standard deviation of 5-min mean RR intervals (SDANN), the mean of the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals for all 5-min segments (SDNN index), the percentage of successive normal RR intervals exceeding 50 ms (pNN50), and the square root of the mean of the squares of the differences between successive normal to normal RR intervals (RMSSD) were low at baseline before treatment with ivabradine. After 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine, the mean HR (83.6 ± 8.0 and 64.6 ± 5.8, p < 0.0001), mean RR interval (713 ± 74 and 943 ± 101 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN (56.2 ± 15.7 and 87.9 ± 19.4 ms, p < 0.0001), SDANN (49.5 ± 14.7 and 76.4 ± 19.5 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN index (24.7 ± 8.8 and 38.3 ± 13.1 ms, p < 0.0001), pNN50 (2.4 ± 1.6 and 3.2 ± 2.2 %, p < 0.0001), and RMSSD (13.5 ± 4.6 and 17.8 ± 5.4 ms, p < 0.0001) substantially improved, which sustained during both when awake and while asleep. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that treatment with ivabradine improves HRV in nonischemic patients with HF.

Heart Rate and Systolic Blood Pressure Variability on Recently Diagnosed Diabetics

Background:Diabetes affects approximately 250 million people in the world. Cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy is a common complication of diabetes that leads to severe postural hypotension, exercise intolerance, and increased incidence of silent myocardial infarction.Objective:To determine the variability of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in recently diagnosed diabetic patients.Methods:The study included 30 patients with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes of less than 2 years and 30 healthy controls. We used a Finapres® device to measure during five minutes beat-to-beat HR and blood pressure in three experimental conditions: supine position, standing position, and rhythmic breathing at 0.1 Hz. The results were analyzed in the time and frequency domains.Results:In the HR analysis, statistically significant differences were found in the time domain, specifically on short-term values such as standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN), root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), and number of pairs of successive NNs that differ by more than 50 ms (pNN50). In the BP analysis, there were no significant differences, but there was a sympathetic dominance in all three conditions. The baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) decreased in patients with early diabetes compared with healthy subjects during the standing maneuver.Conclusions:There is a decrease in HR variability in patients with early type 2 diabetes. No changes were observed in the BP analysis in the supine position, but there were changes in BRS with the standing maneuver, probably due to sympathetic hyperactivity.

Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction in Patients with Morbid Obesity

Abstract Background: Morbid obesity is directly related to deterioration in cardiorespiratory capacity, including changes in cardiovascular autonomic modulation. Objective: This study aimed to assess the cardiovascular autonomic function in morbidly obese individuals. Methods: Cross-sectional study, including two groups of participants: Group I, composed by 50 morbidly obese subjects, and Group II, composed by 30 nonobese subjects. The autonomic function was assessed by heart rate variability in the time domain (standard deviation of all normal RR intervals [SDNN]; standard deviation of the normal R-R intervals [SDNN]; square root of the mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals [RMSSD]; and the percentage of interval differences of successive R-R intervals greater than 50 milliseconds [pNN50] than the adjacent interval), and in the frequency domain (high frequency [HF]; low frequency [LF]: integration of power spectral density function in high frequency and low frequency ranges respectively). Between-group comparisons were performed by the Student’s t-test, with a level of significance of 5%. Results: Obese subjects had lower values of SDNN (40.0 ± 18.0 ms vs. 70.0 ± 27.8 ms; p = 0.0004), RMSSD (23.7 ± 13.0 ms vs. 40.3 ± 22.4 ms; p = 0.0030), pNN50 (14.8 ± 10.4 % vs. 25.9 ± 7.2%; p = 0.0061) and HF (30.0 ± 17.5 Hz vs. 51.7 ± 25.5 Hz; p = 0.0023) than controls. Mean LF/HF ratio was higher in Group I (5.0 ± 2.8 vs. 1.0 ± 0.9; p = 0.0189), indicating changes in the sympathovagal balance. No statistical difference in LF was observed between Group I and Group II (50.1 ± 30.2 Hz vs. 40.9 ± 23.9 Hz; p = 0.9013). Conclusion: morbidly obese individuals have increased sympathetic activity and reduced parasympathetic activity, featuring cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction.

Estudos experimentais sôbre a origem do milho

1) It may seem rather strange that, in spite of the efforts of a considerable number of scientists, the problem of the origin of indian corn or maize still has remained an open question. There are no fossil remains or archaeological relics except those which are quite identical with types still existing. (Fig. 1). The main difficulty in finding the wild ancestor- which may still exist - results from the fact that it has been somewhat difficult to decide what it should be like and also where to look for it. 2) There is no need to discuss the literature since an excellent review has recently been published by MANGELSDORF and REEVES (1939). It may be sufficient to state that there are basically two hypotheses, that of ST. HILAIRE (1829) who considered Brazilian pod corn as the nearest relative of wild corn still existing, and that of ASCHERSON (1875) who considered Euchlaena from Central America as the wild ancestor of corn. Later hypotheses represent or variants of these two hypotheses or of other concepts, howewer generally with neither disproving their predecessors nor showing why the new hypotheses were better than the older ones. Since nearly all possible combinations of ideas have thus been put forward, it har- dly seems possible to find something theoretically new, while it is essential first to produce new facts. 3) The studies about the origin of maize received a new impulse from MANGELSDORF and REEVES'S experimental work on both Zea-Tripsacum and Zea-Euchlaena hybrids. Independently I started experiments in 1937 with the hope that new results might be obtained when using South American material. Having lost priority in some respects I decided to withold publication untill now, when I can put forward more concise ideas about the origin of maize, based on a new experimental reconstruction of the "wild type". 4) The two main aspects of MANGELSDORF and REEVES hypothesis are discussed. We agree with the authors that ST. HILAIRE's theory is probably correct in so far as the tunicata gene is a wild type relic gene, but cannot accept the reconstruction of wild corn as a homozygous pod corn with a hermaphroditic tassel. As shown experimentally (Fig. 2-3) these tassels have their central spike transformed into a terminal, many rowed ear with a flexible rachis, while possessing at the same time the lateral ear. Thus no explanation is given of the origin of the corn ear, which is the main feature of cultivated corn (BRIEGER, 1943). The second part of the hypothesis referring to the origin of Euchlaena from corn, inverting thus ASCHERSON's theory, cannot be accepted for several reasons, stated in some detail. The data at hand justify only the conclusion that both genera, Euchlaena and Zea, are related, and there is as little proof for considering the former as ancestor of the latter as there is for the new inverse theory. 5) The analysis of indigenous corn, which will be published in detail by BRIEGER and CUTLER, showed several very primitive characters, but no type was found which was in all characters sufficiently primitive. A genetical analysis of Paulista Pod Corn showed that it contains the same gene as other tunicates, in the IV chromosome, the segregation being complicated by a new gametophyte factor Ga3. The full results of this analysis shall be published elsewhere. (BRIEGER). Selection experiments with Paulista Pod Corn showed that no approximation to a wild ancestor may be obtained when limiting the studies to pure corn. Thus it seemed necessary to substitute "domesticated" by "wild type" modifiers, and the only means for achieving this substitution are hybridizations with Euchlaena. These hybrids have now been analysed init fourth generation, including backcrosses, and, again, the full data will be published elsewhere, by BRIEGER and ADDISON. In one present publication three forms obtained will be described only, which represent an approximation to wild type corn. 6) Before entering howewer into detail, some arguments against ST. HILAIRE's theory must be mentioned. The premendelian argument, referring to the instability of this character, is explained by the fact that all fertile pod corn plants are heterozygous for the dominant Tu factor. But the sterility of the homozygous TuTu, which phenotypically cannot be identified, is still unexplained. The most important argument against the acceptance of the Tunicata faetor as wild type relic gene was removed recently by CUTLER (not yet published) who showed that this type has been preserved for centuries by the Bolivian indians as a mystical "medicine". 7) The main botanical requirements for transforming the corn ear into a wild type structure are stated, and alternative solutions given. One series of these characters are found in Tripsacum and Euchlaena : 2 rows on opposite sides of the rachis, protection of the grains by scales, fragility of the rachis. There remains the other alternative : 4 rows, possibly forming double rows of female and male spikelets, protection of kernels by their glumes, separation of grains at their base from the cob which is thin and flexible. 8) Three successive stages in the reconstruction of wild corn, obtained experimentally, are discussed and illustrated, all characterized by the presence of the Tu gene. a) The structure of the Fl hybrids has already been described in 1943. The main features of the Tunicata hybrids (Fig. -8), when compared with non-tunicate hybrids (Fig. 5-6), consist in the absence of scaly protections, the fragility of the rachis and finally the differentiation of the double rows into one male and one female spikelet. As has been pointed out, these characters represent new phenotypic effects of the tunicate factor which do not appear in the presence of pure maize modifiers. b) The next step was observed among the first backcross to teosinte (Fig. 9). As shown in the photography, Fig. 9D, the features are essencially those of the Fl plants, except that the rachis is more teosinte like, with longer internodes, irregular four-row-arrangement and a complete fragility on the nodes. c) In the next generation a completely new type appeared (Fig. 10) which resembles neither corn nor teosinte, mainly in consequence of one character: the rachis is thin and flexible and not fragile, while the grains have an abscission layer at the base, The medium sized, pointed, brownish and hard granis are protected by their well developed corneous glumes. This last form may not yet be the nearest approach to a wild grass, and I shall try in further experiments to introduce other changes such as an increase of fertile flowers per spikelet, the reduction of difference between terminal and lateral inflorescences, etc.. But the nature of the atavistic reversion is alveadwy such that it alters considerably our expectation when looking for a still existing wild ancestor of corn. 9) The next step in our deductions must now consist in an reversion of our question. We must now explain how we may obtain domesticated corn, starting from a hypothetical wild plant, similar to type c. Of the several changes which must have been necessary to attract the attention of the Indians, the following two seem to me the most important: the disappearance of all abscission layers and the reduction of the glumes. This may have been brought about by an accumulation of mutations. But it seems much more probable to assume that some crossing with a tripsacoid grass or even with Tripsacum australe may have been responsible. In such a cross, the two types of abscission layer would be counterbalanced as shown by the Flhybrids of corn, Tripsacum and Euchlaena. Furthermore in later generations a.tu-allele of Tripsacum may become homozygous and substitute the wild tunicate factor of corn. The hypothesis of a hybrid origin of cultivated corn is not completely new, but has been discussed already by HARSHBERGER and COLLINS. Our hypothesis differs from that of MANGELSDORF and REEVES who assume that crosses with Tripsacum are responsible only for some features of Central and North American corn. 10) The following arguments give indirects evidence in support of our hypothesis: a) Several characters have been observed in indigenous corn from the central region of South America, which may be interpreted as "tripsacoid". b) Equally "zeoid" characters seem to be present in Tripsacum australe of central South-America. c) A system of unbalanced factors, combined by the in-tergeneric cross, may be responsible for the sterility of the wild type tunicata factor when homozygous, a result of the action of modifiers, brought in from Tripsacum together with the tuallele. d) The hybrid theory may explain satisfactorily the presence of so many lethals and semilethals, responsible for the phenomenon of inbreeding in cultivated corn. It must be emphasized that corn does not possess any efficient mechanism to prevent crossing and which could explain the accumulation of these mutants during the evolutionary process. Teosinte which'has about the same mechanism of sexual reproduction has not accumulated such genes, nor self-sterile plants in spite of their pronounced preference for crossing. 11) The second most important step in domestication must have consisted in transforming a four rowed ear into an ear with many rows. The fusion theory, recently revived byLANGHAM is rejected. What happened evidently, just as in succulent pXants (Cactus) or in cones os Gymnosperms, is that there has been a change in phyllotaxy and a symmetry of longitudinal rows superimposed on the original spiral arrangement. 12) The geographical distribution of indigenous corn in South America has been discussed. So far, we may distinguish three zones. The most primitive corn appears in the central lowlands of what I call the Central Triangle of South America: east of the Andies, south of the Amazone-Basin, Northwest of a line formed by the rivers São Prancisco-Paraná and including the Paraguay-Basin. The uniformity of the types found in this extremely large zone is astonishing (BRIEGER and CUTLER). To the west, there is the well known Andian region, characterized by a large number of extremely diverse types from small pop corn to large Cuszco, from soft starch to modified sweet corn, from large cylindrical ears to small round ears, etc.. The third region extends along the atlantic coast in the east, from the Caribean Sea to the Argentine, and is characterized by Cateto, an orange hard flint corn. The Andean types must have been obtained very early, and undoubtedly are the result of the intense Inca agriculture. The Cateto type may be obtained easily by crosses, for instance, of "São Paulo Pointed Pop" to some orange soft corn of the central region. The relation of these three South American zones to Central and North America are not discussed, and it seems essential first to study the intermediate region of Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. The geograprical distribution of chromosome knobs is rapidly discussed; but it seems that no conclusions can be drawn before a large number of Tripsacum species has been analysed.

Nota sôbre um possível fator sub-letal em gado Holstein-Friesian

In this note the A. A. relate the occurrence of a possible sub-lethal factor, on the Holstein-Friesian herd of Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", Piracicaba. The sire Horto was mated with his own mother, Brisa, and so, were obtained two calves, a male and a female, consecutively. Both the calves presented flexion and deviation of the fore legs. The sire's death has not alloved further observations. The study of these history cases excludes the mother's nutritional deficiency, as the cause of related phenomenon. In the consulted literature, VEIGA and MEAD et al. relate similar cases, although these are observed in other breeds of cattle The A. A. admit that cause of occurrence is a possible sublethal recessive factor, put in evidence by inbreeding.

Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

Comparative Analysis of Signals Restoration by Different Kinds of Approximation

The comparative analysis of continuous signals restoration by different kinds of approximation is performed. The software product, allowing to define optimal method of different original signals restoration by Lagrange polynomial, Kotelnikov interpolation series, linear and cubic splines, Haar wavelet and Kotelnikov-Shannon wavelet based on criterion of minimum value of mean-square deviation is proposed. Practical recommendations on the selection of approximation function for different class of signals are obtained.

Population biology of the crab Armases angustipes (Crustacea, Decapoda, Sesarmidae) at Brazilian tropical coast

The semi terrestrial crabs are important elements of the fauna of coastal regions. The aim of this study was to analyze the population structure of Armases angustipes (Dana, 1852) at estuaries of the Ariquindá River, considered a non impacted area, and Mamucabas River, considered a few impacted area, on the south coast of state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The species occurred in all months of the year. The number of individuals per month varied, being higher in the months of transition between the seasons. This is probably due to significant seasonal variations of air and burrow temperature and burrow salinity. There was no sexual dimorphism in size of A. angustipes in the mangrove of Ariquindá River, but males were larger than females in the mangrove of Mamucabas River. In both estuaries, the sex ratio did not differ from Mendelian proportion, but showed a deviation for females. The analysis of temporal variation in sex ratio showed significant differences in some months of the year. These variations are due to cyclical events that act distinctly on each sex. In both estuaries, size classes of carapace width were equally represented by both sexes. The ovigerous females of A. angustipes occurred only in some months of the year, especially in summer, in both estuaries. Probably the high phytoplankton productivity observed in summer favors the reproductive activity, since these algae serve as food for the larvae. Specimens of the population of Rio Ariquindá are largest and wider than those of Mamucabas River. This fact, associated with the low abundance of crabs and the lower frequency of ovigerous females observed in Mamucabas River, is an indication that this population may be influenced by the environmental impacts that this estuary has received.

On Hyperbolic once-punctured-torus bundles II. Fractal tessellations of the plane

We describe fractal tessellations of the complex plane that arise naturally from Cannon-Thurston maps associated to complete, hyperbolic, once-punctured-torus bundles. We determine the symmetry groups of these tessellations.

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Collusion in growing and shrinking markets: empirical evidence from experimental duopolies

We study collusive behaviour in experimental duopolies that compete in prices under dynamic demand conditions. In one treatment the demand grows at a constant rate. In the other treatment the demand declines at another constant rate. The rates are chosen so that the evolution of the demand in one case is just the reverse in time than the one for the other case. We use a box-design demand function so that there are no issues of finding and co-ordinating on the collusive price. Contrary to game-theoretic reasoning, our results show that collusion is significantly larger when the demand shrinks than when it grows. We conjecture that the prospect of rapidly declining profit opportunities exerts a disciplining effect on firms that facilitates collusion and discourages deviation.

Approval voting ion dichotomous preferences

The aim of this paper is to find normative foundations of Approval Voting. In order to show that Approval Voting is the only social choice function that satisfies anonymity, neutrality, strategy-proofness and strict monotonicity we rely on an intermediate result which relates strategy-proofness of a social choice function to the properties of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives and monotonicity of the corresponding social welfare function. Afterwards we characterize Approval Voting by means of strict symmetry, neutrality and strict monotonicity and relate this result to May's Theorem. Finally, we show that it is possible to substitute the property of strict monotonicity by the one efficiency of in the second characterization.

Some things couples always wanted to know about stable matchings (but were afraid to ask)

It is well-known that couples that look jointly for jobs in the same centralized labor market may cause instabilities. We demonstrate that for a natural preference domain for couples, namely the domain of responsive preferences, the existence of stable matchings can easily be established. However, a small deviation from responsiveness in one couple's preference relation that models the wish of a couple to be closer together may already cause instability. This demonstrates that the nonexistence of stable matchings in couples markets is not a singular theoretical irregularity. Our nonexistence result persists even when a weaker stability notion is used that excludes myopic blocking. Moreover, we show that even if preferences are responsive there are problems that do not arise for singles markets. Even though for couples markets with responsive preferences the set of stable matchings is nonempty, the lattice structure that this set has for singles markets does not carry over. Furthermore we demonstrate that the new algorithm adopted by the National Resident Matching Program to fill positions for physicians in the United States may cycle, while in fact a stable matchings does exist, and be prone to strategic manipulation if the members of a couple pretend to be single.

A maximal domain of preferences for tops-only rules in the division problem

The division problem consists of allocating an amount M of a perfectly divisible good among a group of n agents. Sprumont (1991) showed that if agents have single-peaked preferences over their shares, the uniform rule is the unique strategy-proof, efficient, and anonymous rule. Ching and Serizawa (1998) extended this result by showing that the set of single-plateaued preferences is the largest domain, for all possible values of M, admitting a rule (the extended uniform rule) satisfying strategy-proofness, efficiency and symmetry. We identify, for each M and n, a maximal domain of preferences under which the extended uniform rule also satisfies the properties of strategy-proofness, efficiency, continuity, and "tops-onlyness". These domains (called weakly single-plateaued) are strictly larger than the set of single-plateaued preferences. However, their intersection, when M varies from zero to infinity, coincides with the set of single-plateaued preferences.