Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity

This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces associated with kernels on topological spaces

We analyze reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces of positive definite kernels on a topological space X being either first countable or locally compact. The results include versions of Mercer's theorem and theorems on the embedding of these spaces into spaces of continuous and square integrable functions.

Weak quasi-randomness for uniform hypergraphs

We study quasi-random properties of k-uniform hypergraphs. Our central notion is uniform edge distribution with respect to large vertex sets. We will find several equivalent characterisations of this property and our work can be viewed as an extension of the well known Chung-Graham-Wilson theorem for quasi-random graphs. Moreover, let K(k) be the complete graph on k vertices and M(k) the line graph of the graph of the k-dimensional hypercube. We will show that the pair of graphs (K(k),M(k)) has the property that if the number of copies of both K(k) and M(k) in another graph G are as expected in the random graph of density d, then G is quasi-random (in the sense of the Chung-Graham-Wilson theorem) with density close to d. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 40, 1-38, 2012

SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS ON DIFFUSIVITY FOR THE EXISTENCE AND NONEXISTENCE OF STABLE EQUILIBRIA WITH NONLINEAR FLUX ON THE BOUNDARY

A reaction-diffusion equation with variable diffusivity and non-linear flux boundary condition is considered. The goal is to give sufficient conditions on the diffusivity function for nonexistence and also for existence of nonconstant stable stationary solutions. Applications are given for the main result of nonexistence.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

A new approach for modeling and control of nonlinear systems via norm-bounded linear differential inclusions

A systematic approach to model nonlinear systems using norm-bounded linear differential inclusions (NLDIs) is proposed in this paper. The resulting NLDI model is suitable for the application of linear control design techniques and, therefore, it is possible to fulfill certain specifications for the underlying nonlinear system, within an operating region of interest in the state-space, using a linear controller designed for this NLDI model. Hence, a procedure to design a dynamic output feedback controller for the NLDI model is also proposed in this paper. One of the main contributions of the proposed modeling and control approach is the use of the mean-value theorem to represent the nonlinear system by a linear parameter-varying model, which is then mapped into a polytopic linear differential inclusion (PLDI) within the region of interest. To avoid the combinatorial problem that is inherent of polytopic models for medium- and large-sized systems, the PLDI is transformed into an NLDI, and the whole process is carried out ensuring that all trajectories of the underlying nonlinear system are also trajectories of the resulting NLDI within the operating region of interest. Furthermore, it is also possible to choose a particular structure for the NLDI parameters to reduce the conservatism in the representation of the nonlinear system by the NLDI model, and this feature is also one important contribution of this paper. Once the NLDI representation of the nonlinear system is obtained, the paper proposes the application of a linear control design method to this representation. The design is based on quadratic Lyapunov functions and formulated as search problem over a set of bilinear matrix inequalities (BMIs), which is solved using a two-step separation procedure that maps the BMIs into a set of corresponding linear matrix inequalities. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Conceptual problem for noncommutative inflation and the new approach for nonrelativistic inflationary equation of state

In a previous paper, we connected the phenomenological noncommutative inflation of Alexander, Brandenberger and Magueijo [ Phys. Rev. D 67 081301 (2003)] and Koh and Brandenberger [ J. Cosmol. Astropart Phys. 2007 21 ()] with the formal representation theory of groups and algebras and analyzed minimal conditions that the deformed dispersion relation should satisfy in order to lead to a successful inflation. In that paper, we showed that elementary tools of algebra allow a group-like procedure in which even Hopf algebras (roughly the symmetries of noncommutative spaces) could lead to the equation of state of inflationary radiation. Nevertheless, in this paper, we show that there exists a conceptual problem with the kind of representation that leads to the fundamental equations of the model. The problem comes from an incompatibility between one of the minimal conditions for successful inflation (the momentum of individual photons being bounded from above) and the Fock-space structure of the representation which leads to the fundamental inflationary equations of state. We show that the Fock structure, although mathematically allowed, would lead to problems with the overall consistency of physics, like leading to a problematic scattering theory, for example. We suggest replacing the Fock space by one of two possible structures that we propose. One of them relates to the general theory of Hopf algebras (here explained at an elementary level) while the other is based on a representation theorem of von Neumann algebras (a generalization of the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients), a proposal already suggested by us to take into account interactions in the inflationary equation of state.

On existence and uniqueness of positive solutions to a class of fractional boundary value problems

[EN] The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions for the following fractional boundary value problem D 0 + α u ( t ) + f ( t , u ( t ) ) = 0 , 0 < t < 1 , u ( 0 ) = u ( 1 ) = u ′ ( 0 ) = 0 , where 2 < α ≤ 3 and D 0 + α is the Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative. Our analysis relies on a fixed-point theorem in partially ordered metric spaces. The autonomous case of this problem was studied in the paper [Zhao et al., Abs. Appl. Anal., to appear], but in Zhao et al. (to appear), the question of uniqueness of the solution is not treated. We also present some examples where we compare our results with the ones obtained in Zhao et al. (to appear). 2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 34B15

Contractive-like mapping principles in ordered metric spaces and application to ordinary differential equations

[EN] The purpose of this paper is to present a fixed point theorem for generalized contractions in partially ordered complete metric spaces. We also present an application to first-order ordinary differential equations.

Existence and uniqueness of positive and nondecreasing solutions for a class of singular fractional boundary value problems

[EN] We establish the existence and uniqueness of a positive and nondecreasing solution to a singular boundary value problem of a class of nonlinear fractional differential equation. Our analysis relies on a fixed point theorem in partially ordered sets.

Aplicaciones del caos determinista a la detección de outliers

[EN]In this paper the authors show that techniques employed in the prediction of chaotic time series" can also be applied to detection of outliers. A definition of outlier" lS provided and a theorem on hypothesis testing is also proved.

Analyzing the dependence structure of microarray data: a copula–based approach

The main aim of this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of clustering dependent data by means of copula functions with particular emphasis on microarray data. Copula functions are a popular multivariate modeling tool in each field where the multivariate dependence is of great interest and their use in clustering has not been still investigated. The first part of this work contains the review of the literature of clustering methods, copula functions and microarray experiments. The attention focuses on the K–means (Hartigan, 1975; Hartigan and Wong, 1979), the hierarchical (Everitt, 1974) and the model–based (Fraley and Raftery, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007) clustering techniques because their performance is compared. Then, the probabilistic interpretation of the Sklar’s theorem (Sklar’s, 1959), the estimation methods for copulas like the Inference for Margins (Joe and Xu, 1996) and the Archimedean and Elliptical copula families are presented. In the end, applications of clustering methods and copulas to the genetic and microarray experiments are highlighted. The second part contains the original contribution proposed. A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the performance of the K–means and the hierarchical bottom–up clustering methods in identifying clusters according to the dependence structure of the data generating process. Different simulations are performed by varying different conditions (e.g., the kind of margins (distinct, overlapping and nested) and the value of the dependence parameter ) and the results are evaluated by means of different measures of performance. In light of the simulation results and of the limits of the two investigated clustering methods, a new clustering algorithm based on copula functions (‘CoClust’ in brief) is proposed. The basic idea, the iterative procedure of the CoClust and the description of the written R functions with their output are given. The CoClust algorithm is tested on simulated data (by varying the number of clusters, the copula models, the dependence parameter value and the degree of overlap of margins) and is compared with the performance of model–based clustering by using different measures of performance, like the percentage of well–identified number of clusters and the not rejection percentage of H0 on . It is shown that the CoClust algorithm allows to overcome all observed limits of the other investigated clustering techniques and is able to identify clusters according to the dependence structure of the data independently of the degree of overlap of margins and the strength of the dependence. The CoClust uses a criterion based on the maximized log–likelihood function of the copula and can virtually account for any possible dependence relationship between observations. Many peculiar characteristics are shown for the CoClust, e.g. its capability of identifying the true number of clusters and the fact that it does not require a starting classification. Finally, the CoClust algorithm is applied to the real microarray data of Hedenfalk et al. (2001) both to the gene expressions observed in three different cancer samples and to the columns (tumor samples) of the whole data matrix.

Prediseño de modelos a escala para el estudio de fenómenos dinámicos de interacción suelo-estructura en aerogeneradores off-shore sobre monopilotes

Máster Universitario en Eficiencia Energética (SIANI)

Gli assetti proprietari e di controllo nell'agroalimentare italiano

The recent default of important Italian agri-business companies provides a challenging issue to be investigated through an appropriate scientific approach. The events involving CIRIO, FERRUZZI or PARMALAT rise an important research question: what are the determinants of performance for Italian companies in the Italian agri – food sector? My aim is not to investigate all the factors that are relevant in explaining performance. Performance depends on a wide set of political, social, economic variables that are strongly interconnected and that are often very difficult to express by formal or mathematical tools. Rather, in my thesis I mainly focus on those aspects that are strictly related to the governance and ownership structure of agri – food companies representing a strand of research that has been quite neglected by previous scholars. The conceptual framework from which I move to justify the existence of a relationship between the ownership structure of a company, governance and performance is the model set up by Airoldi and Zattoni (2005). In particular the authors investigate the existence of complex relationships arising within the company and between the company and the environment that can bring different strategies and performances. They do not try to find the “best” ownership structure, rather they outline what variables are connected and how they could vary endogenously within the whole economic system. In spite of the fact that the Airoldi and Zattoni’s model highlights the existence of a relationship between ownership and structure that is crucial for the set up of the thesis the authors fail to apply quantitative analyses in order to verify the magnitude, sign and the causal direction of the impact. In order to fill this gap we start from the literature trying to investigate the determinants of performance. Even in this strand of research studies analysing the relationship between different forms of ownership and performance are still lacking. In this thesis, after a brief description of the Italian agri – food sector and after an introduction including a short explanation of the definitions of performance and ownership structure, I implement a model in which the performance level (interpreted here as Return on Investments and Return on Sales) is related to variables that have been previously identified by the literature as important such as the financial variables (cash and leverage indices), the firm location (North Italy, Centre Italy, South Italy), the power concentration (lower than 25%, between 25% and 50% and between 50% and 100% of ownership control) and the specific agri – food sector (agriculture, food and beverage). Moreover we add a categorical variable representing different forms of ownership structure (public limited company, limited liability company, cooperative) that is the core of our study. All those variables are fully analysed by a preliminary descriptive analysis. As in many previous contributions we apply a panel least squares analysis for 199 Italian firms in the period 1998 – 2007 with data taken from the Bureau Van Dijck Dataset. We apply two different models in which the dependant variables are respectively the Return on Investments (ROI) and the Return on Sales (ROS) indicators. Not surprisingly we find that companies located in the North Italy representing the richest area in Italy perform better than the ones located in the Centre and South of Italy. In contrast with the Modigliani - Miller theorem financial variables could be significant and the specific sector within the agri – food market could play a relevant role. As the power concentration, we find that a strong property control (higher than 50%) or a fragmented concentration (lower than 25%) perform better. This result apparently could suggest that “hybrid” forms of concentrations could create bad functioning in the decision process. As our key variables representing the ownership structure we find that public limited companies and limited liability companies perform better than cooperatives. This is easily explainable by the fact that law establishes that cooperatives are less profit – oriented. Beyond cooperatives public limited companies perform better than limited liability companies and show a more stable path over time. Results are quite consistent when we consider both ROI and ROS as dependant variables. These results should not lead us to claim that public limited company is the “best” among all possible governance structures. First, every governance solution should be considered according to specific situations. Second more robustness analyses are needed to confirm our results. At this stage we deem these findings, the model set up and our approach represent original contributions that could stimulate fruitful future studies aimed at investigating the intriguing issue concerning the effect of ownership structure on the performance levels.

Jarrow-Yildirim model for inflation: theory and applications

This thesis deals with inflation theory, focussing on the model of Jarrow & Yildirim, which is nowadays used when pricing inflation derivatives. After recalling main results about short and forward interest rate models, the dynamics of the main components of the market are derived. Then the most important inflation-indexed derivatives are explained (zero coupon swap, year-on-year, cap and floor), and their pricing proceeding is shown step by step. Calibration is explained and performed with a common method and an heuristic and non standard one. The model is enriched with credit risk, too, which allows to take into account the possibility of bankrupt of the counterparty of a contract. In this context, the general method of pricing is derived, with the introduction of defaultable zero-coupon bonds, and the Monte Carlo method is treated in detailed and used to price a concrete example of contract. Appendixes: A: martingale measures, Girsanov's theorem and the change of numeraire. B: some aspects of the theory of Stochastic Differential Equations; in particular, the solution for linear EDSs, and the Feynman-Kac Theorem, which shows the connection between EDSs and Partial Differential Equations. C: some useful results about normal distribution.