964 resultados para Survival analysis (Biometry) Mathematical models


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Objectives: The study objective was to derive reference pharmacokinetic curves of antiretroviral drugs (ART) based on available population pharmacokinetic (Pop-PK) studies that can be used to optimize therapeutic drug monitoring guided dosage adjustment.¦Methods: A systematic search of Pop-PK studies of 8 ART in adults was performed in PubMed. To simulate reference PK curves, a summary of the PK parameters was obtained for each drug based on meta-analysis approach. Most models used one-compartment model, thus chosen as reference model. Models using bi-exponential disposition were simplified to one-compartment, since the first distribution phase was rapid and not determinant for the description of the terminal elimination phase, mostly relevant for this project. Different absorption were standardized for first-order absorption processes.¦Apparent clearance (CL), apparent volume of distribution of the terminal phase (Vz) and absorption rate constant (ka) and inter-individual variability were pooled into summary mean value, weighted by number of plasma levels; intra-individual variability was weighted by number of individuals in each study.¦Simulations based on summary PK parameters served to construct concentration PK percentiles (NONMEM®).¦Concordance between individual and summary parameters was assessed graphically using Forest-plots. To test robustness, difference in simulated curves based on published and summary parameters was calculated using efavirenz as probe drug.¦Results: CL was readily accessible from all studies. For studies with one-compartment, Vz was central volume of distribution; for two-compartment, Vz was CL/λz. ka was directly used or derived based on the mean absorption time (MAT) for more complicated absorption models, assuming MAT=1/ka.¦The value of CL for each drug was in excellent agreement throughout all Pop-PK models, suggesting that minimal concentration derived from summary models was adequately characterized. The comparison of the concentration vs. time profile for efavirenz between published and summary PK parameters revealed not more than 20% difference. Although our approach appears adequate for estimation of elimination phase, the simplification of absorption phase might lead to small bias shortly after drug intake.¦Conclusions: Simulated reference percentile curves based on such an approach represent a useful tool for interpretating drug concentrations. This Pop-PK meta-analysis approach should be further validated and could be extended to elaborate more sophisticated computerized tool for the Bayesian TDM of ART.

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A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyse the effectiveness of bevacizumab and irinotecan (BVZ/CPT-11) as a second-line treatment in patients with primary glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) in comparison with a control group that were not administered BVZ/CPT-11 at the first recurrence. The difference in overall survival (OS) between the two groups was used as a predictor of effectiveness. OS was calculated according to prognostic factors and gender. A total of 28 and 32 patients were enrolled in the BVZ/CPT-11 cohort and control group, respectively. The median OS was 17.94 months (95% CI, 14.91-20.96) in the BVZ/CPT-11 treatment cohort and 10.97 months (95% CI, 7.65-14.30) in the control cohort. The results obtained on the effectiveness of BVZ/CPT-11 treatment in patients with primary GBM are consistent with data from previous studies. No significant differences were identified in OS based on prognostic factors; therefore, the latter cannot be used to select patients who would incur the greatest benefits from BVZ/CPT-11 treatment.

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The human pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa has been shown previously to use similar virulence factors when infecting mammalian hosts or Dictyostelium amoebae. Here we randomly mutagenized a clinical isolate of P. aeruginosa, and identified mutants with attenuated virulence towards Dictyostelium. These mutant strains also exhibited a strong decrease in virulence when infecting Drosophila and mice, confirming that P. aeruginosa makes use of similar virulence traits to confront these very different hosts. Further characterization of these bacterial mutants showed that TrpD is important for the induction of the quorum-sensing circuit, while PchH and PchI are involved in the induction of the type III secretion system. These results demonstrate the usefulness and the relevance of the Dictyostelium host model to identify and analyse new virulence genes in P. aeruginosa.

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BACKGROUND Recently, some US cohorts have shown a moderate association between red and processed meat consumption and mortality supporting the results of previous studies among vegetarians. The aim of this study was to examine the association of red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with the risk of early death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS Included in the analysis were 448,568 men and women without prevalent cancer, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and with complete information on diet, smoking, physical activity and body mass index, who were between 35 and 69 years old at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of meat consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS As of June 2009, 26,344 deaths were observed. After multivariate adjustment, a high consumption of red meat was related to higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.28, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day), and the association was stronger for processed meat (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.66, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day). After correction for measurement error, higher all-cause mortality remained significant only for processed meat (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25, per 50 g/d). We estimated that 3.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 5.0%) of deaths could be prevented if all participants had a processed meat consumption of less than 20 g/day. Significant associations with processed meat intake were observed for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and 'other causes of death'. The consumption of poultry was not related to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The results of our analysis support a moderate positive association between processed meat consumption and mortality, in particular due to cardiovascular diseases, but also to cancer.

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BACKGROUND Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a modified clinical presentation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) but also a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients with VTE. As it may induce therapeutic modifications, we evaluated the influence of the initial VTE presentation on the 3-month outcomes in COPD patients. METHODS COPD patients included in the on-going world-wide RIETE Registry were studied. The rate of pulmonary embolism (PE), major bleeding and death during the first 3 months in COPD patients were compared according to their initial clinical presentation (acute PE or deep vein thrombosis (DVT)). RESULTS Of the 4036 COPD patients included, 2452 (61%; 95% CI: 59.2-62.3) initially presented with PE. PE as the first VTE recurrence occurred in 116 patients, major bleeding in 101 patients and mortality in 443 patients (Fatal PE: first cause of death). Multivariate analysis confirmed that presenting with PE was associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence as PE (OR, 2.04; 95% CI: 1.11-3.72) and higher risk of fatal PE (OR, 7.77; 95% CI: 2.92-15.7). CONCLUSIONS COPD patients presenting with PE have an increased risk for PE recurrences and fatal PE compared with those presenting with DVT alone. More efficient therapy is needed in this subtype of patients.

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The incidence of second non-breast primary cancer following adjuvant treatment was evaluated using data from patients enrolled from 1978 to 1999 in four International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) trials. The occurrence of these tumours as sites of the first failure was assessed separately for two treatment comparisons: toremifene versus tamoxifen for 5 years in 1035 patients in IBCSG Trials 12-93 and 14-93 with a median follow-up of 8 years and endocrine therapy (toremifene or tamoxifen) versus chemo-endocrine therapy (CMF or AC plus toremifene or tamoxifen) in 1731 patients from IBCSG Trials III, VII and 12-93, with a combined median follow-up of 14 years. No significant differences in second non-breast primary tumours were observed in either comparison. In particular, the incidences of second primary uterine tumours with toremifene and tamoxifen were similar and no significant increase of secondary leukaemias was observed with chemo-endocrine therapy compared with endocrine therapy.

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Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread parasite causing malaria, being especially prevalent in the Americas and Southeast Asia. Children are one of the most affected populations, especially in highly endemic areas. However, there are few studies evaluating the therapeutic response of infants with vivax malaria. This study retrospectively evaluated the parasitaemia clearance in children diagnosed with vivax malaria during the first five days of exclusive treatment with chloroquine (CQ). Infants aged less than six months old had a significantly slower parasitaemia clearance time compared to the group of infants and children between six months and 12 years old (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis; Wilcoxon test; p = 0.004). The impaired clearance of parasitaemia in younger children with vivax malaria is shown for the first time in Latin America. It is speculated that CQ pharmacokinetics in young children with vivax malaria is distinct, but this specific population may also allow the detection of CQ-resistant parasites during follow-up, due to the lack of previous immunity.

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BACKGROUND Controversy exists concerning the influence of gender in the prognosis of patients with heart failure and no evidence is available from specific heart failure clinics. HYPOTHESIS Women with ambulatory heart failure are managed differently than men, although their prognosis might be better than men. METHODS AND RESULTS We analyzed the clinical characteristics, complementary test results, treatment, and prognosis in 4720 patients with chronic heart failure seen in 62 specialized clinics forming part of a multicenter registry during a mean follow-up of 40 months. The mean age was 65 +/- 12 years and 71% were men. The men were younger than the women and more often had a history of hyperlipidemia and ischemic heart disease. The men had a more advanced heart failure New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (III-IV) than the women and a greater frequency of systolic ventricular dysfunction. The men more often received treatment with beta-blockers, vasodilators, and antiplatelet aggregators as well as higher mean doses as compared with the women. The overall survival after the follow-up was similar for both genders, although the women had lower rates of survival free of admission for heart failure. CONCLUSIONS Despite the mortality of women and men with heart failure being similar, the rate of readmission for heart failure is greater in women in specialized heart failure clinics. These results may be associated with the pharmacological treatment differences observed.

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We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

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The emergence of novel drugs corresponds with the determination of the effectiveness of the current treatments used in clinical practice. A retrospective observational study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of first-line treatments and to test the influence of the prognostic factors established using the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and the analysis of Mekhail's study for two or more metastatic sites. The primary endpoints were median progression-free survival (mPFS) and median overall survival (mOS) times. A total of 65 patients were enrolled and the mPFS and mOS of the patients treated with sunitinib (n=51) were 9.0 and 20.1 months, respectively, and for the patients treated with temsirolimus (n=14) these were 3.0 and 6.2 months, respectively. In the poor-prognosis (PP) group, a difference of 1.2 months (P=0.049) was found in mPFS depending on the first-line treatment. A difference of 4.1 months (P=0.023) was also found in mPFS when classified by histology (clear verses non-clear cell) in the sunitinib-treatment group. When stratified by the prognostic group, differences of >7 months (P<0.001) were found between the groups. Therefore, it was concluded that the effectiveness of the treatments was reduced compared to previous studies and differences were found in the PP group when classified by first-line drug and histology. Additionally, the influence of prognostic factors on OS and the value of stratifying patients using these factors have been confirmed.

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BACKGROUND: Phase-IV, open-label, single-arm study (NCT01203917) to assess efficacy and safety/tolerability of first-line gefitinib in Caucasian patients with stage IIIA/B/IV, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation-positive non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: TREATMENT: gefitinib 250 mg day(-1) until progression. Primary endpoint: objective response rate (ORR). Secondary endpoints: disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and safety/tolerability. Pre-planned exploratory objective: EGFR mutation analysis in matched tumour and plasma samples. RESULTS: Of 1060 screened patients with NSCLC (859 known mutation status; 118 positive, mutation frequency 14%), 106 with EGFR sensitising mutations were enrolled (female 70.8%; adenocarcinoma 97.2%; never-smoker 64.2%). At data cutoff: ORR 69.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 60.5-77.7), DCR 90.6% (95% CI 83.5-94.8), median PFS 9.7 months (95% CI 8.5-11.0), median OS 19.2 months (95% CI 17.0-NC; 27% maturity). Most common adverse events (AEs; any grade): rash (44.9%), diarrhoea (30.8%); CTC (Common Toxicity Criteria) grade 3/4 AEs: 15%; SAEs: 19%. Baseline plasma 1 samples were available in 803 patients (784 known mutation status; 82 positive; mutation frequency 10%). Plasma 1 EGFR mutation test sensitivity: 65.7% (95% CI 55.8-74.7). CONCLUSION: First-line gefitinib was effective and well tolerated in Caucasian patients with EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC. Plasma samples could be considered for mutation analysis if tumour tissue is unavailable.

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There are very few disease-specific studies focusing on outcomes of umbilical cord blood transplantation for Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. We report the outcome of 45 patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia who underwent myeloablative single unit cord blood transplantation from unrelated donors within the GETH/GITMO cooperative group. Conditioning regimens were based on combinations of thiotepa, busulfan, cyclophospamide or fludarabine, and antithymocyte globulin. At the time of transplantation, 35 patients (78%) were in first complete remission, four (8%) in second complete remission and six (14%) in third or subsequent response. The cumulative incidence of myeloid engraftment was 96% at a median time of 20 days and significantly better for patients receiving higher doses of CD34(+) cells. The incidence of acute grade II-IV graft-versus-host disease was 31%, while that of overall chronic graft-versus-host disease was 53%. Treatment-related mortality was 17% at day +100 and 31% at 5 years. The 5-year relapse, event-free survival and overall survival rates were 31%, 36% and 44%, respectively. Although the event-free and overall survival rates in patients without BCR/ABL transcripts detectable at time of transplant were better than those in whom BCR/ABL transcripts were detected (46% versus 24% and 60% versus 30%, respectively) these differences were not statistically significant in the univariate analysis (P=0.07). These results demonstrate that umbilical cord blood transplantation from unrelated donors can be a curative treatment for a substantial number of patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

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Meniere's disease is an episodic vestibular syndrome associated with sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) and tinnitus. Patients with MD have an elevated prevalence of several autoimmune diseases (rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, ankylosing spondylitis and psoriasis), which suggests a shared autoimmune background. Functional variants of several genes involved in the NF-κB pathway, such as REL, TNFAIP3, NFKB1 and TNIP1, have been associated with two or more immune-mediated diseases and allelic variations in the TLR10 gene may influence bilateral affectation and clinical course in MD. We have genotyped 716 cases of MD and 1628 controls by using the ImmunoChip, a high-density genotyping array containing 186 autoimmune loci, to explore the association of immune system related-loci with sporadic MD. Although no single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reached a genome-wide significant association (p<10(-8)), we selected allelic variants in the NF-kB pathway for further analyses to evaluate the impact of these SNPs in the clinical outcome of MD in our cohort. None of the selected SNPs increased susceptibility for MD in patients with uni or bilateral SNHL. However, two potential regulatory variants in the NFKB1 gene (rs3774937 and rs4648011) were associated with a faster hearing loss progression in patients with unilateral SNHL. So, individuals with unilateral MD carrying the C allele in rs3774937 or G allele in rs4648011 had a shorter mean time to reach hearing stage 3 (>40 dB HL) (log-rank test, corrected p values were p = 0.009 for rs3774937 and p = 0.003 for rs4648011, respectively). No variants influenced hearing in bilateral MD. Our data support that the allelic variants rs3774937 and rs4648011 can modify hearing outcome in patients with MD and unilateral SNHL.

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BACKGROUND The combined inhibition of BRAF and MEK is hypothesized to improve clinical outcomes in patients with melanoma by preventing or delaying the onset of resistance observed with BRAF inhibitors alone. This randomized phase 3 study evaluated the combination of the BRAF inhibitor vemurafenib and the MEK inhibitor cobimetinib. METHODS We randomly assigned 495 patients with previously untreated unresectable locally advanced or metastatic BRAF V600 mutation-positive melanoma to receive vemurafenib and cobimetinib (combination group) or vemurafenib and placebo (control group). The primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival. RESULTS The median progression-free survival was 9.9 months in the combination group and 6.2 months in the control group (hazard ratio for death or disease progression, 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of complete or partial response in the combination group was 68%, as compared with 45% in the control group (P<0.001), including rates of complete response of 10% in the combination group and 4% in the control group. Progression-free survival as assessed by independent review was similar to investigator-assessed progression-free survival. Interim analyses of overall survival showed 9-month survival rates of 81% (95% CI, 75 to 87) in the combination group and 73% (95% CI, 65 to 80) in the control group. Vemurafenib and cobimetinib was associated with a nonsignificantly higher incidence of adverse events of grade 3 or higher, as compared with vemurafenib and placebo (65% vs. 59%), and there was no significant difference in the rate of study-drug discontinuation. The number of secondary cutaneous cancers decreased with the combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS The addition of cobimetinib to vemurafenib was associated with a significant improvement in progression-free survival among patients with BRAF V600-mutated metastatic melanoma, at the cost of some increase in toxicity. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech; coBRIM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01689519.).

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The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.