Learning curves for Gaussian processes models: fluctuations and universality

Based on a statistical mechanics approach, we develop a method for approximately computing average case learning curves and their sample fluctuations for Gaussian process regression models. We give examples for the Wiener process and show that universal relations (that are independent of the input distribution) between error measures can be derived.

The politics of exclusion:institutions and immigration policy in contemporary Germany

Immigration is one of the most sensitive issues of modern European politics. Nowhere is this more the case than in Germany, as a result of its history and the sheer scale of immigration it has experienced since 1945. Yet despite this background, Germany's immigration, residence and citizenship policy has been more restrictive when compared to that of many other countries; indeed, official policy long maintained that Germany was not a 'country of immigration'. But why has this been the case? The politics of exclusion provides a new analytical perspective on immigration in Germany, tracing the country's immigration and citizenship policy since the Second World War. The book argues that institutional politics are central to understanding why Germany's policy structures have experienced only incremental change over the past 20 years, and have remained comparatively restrictive. With its lively and accessible style, the book will appeal to advanced scholars and students of immigration and Germany.

Inter-organizational co-operation, conflict and change

Relationships between organizations can be characterized by cooperation, conflict, and change. In this dissertation we study cooperation between organizations by investigating how norms in relationships can enhance innovativeness and subsequently impact relationship performance. We do so by incorporating both beneficial aspects of long term relationships as well as “dark side” factors that may decrease innovativeness. This provides a balanced assessment of the factors increasing and decreasing the performance of relationships. Next, we study conflict between organizations by taking a network view on conflict which helps explain why organizations react to conflict. We find stakeholders to have an effect on channel conflict responsiveness. Finally we study change by means of an organization’s ability to successfully add an Internet channel to their distribution system in order to sell its products or services directly to the end-user. We find that an Internet channel is best implemented by organizations that are flexible and we identify several circumstances under which this flexibility is highest.

Forecasting exchange rates with linear and nonlinear models

In this paper the exchange rate forecasting performance of neural network models are evaluated against random walk and a range of time series models. There are no guidelines available that can be used to choose the parameters of neural network models and therefore the parameters are chosen according to what the researcher considers to be the best. Such an approach, however, implies that the risk of making bad decisions is extremely high which could explain why in many studies neural network models do not consistently perform better than their time series counterparts. In this paper through extensive experimentation the level of subjectivity in building neural network models is considerably reduced and therefore giving them a better chance of performing well. Our results show that in general neural network models perform better than traditionally used time series models in forecasting exchange rates.

Investigation of the effects of low energy high dose ion bombardment in metals and compound semiconductors

The effect of low energy nitrogen molecular ion beam bombardment on metals and compound semiconductors has been studied, with the aim to investigate at the effects of ion and target properties. For this purpose, nitrogen ion implantation in aluminium, iron, copper, gold, GaAs and AIGaAs is studied using XPS and Angle Resolve XPS. A series of experimental studies on N+2 bombardment induced compositional changes, especially the amount of nitrogen retained in the target, were accomplished. Both monoenergetic implantation and non-monoenergetic ion implantation were investigated, using the VG Scientific ESCALAB 200D system and a d. c. plasma cell, respectively. When the samples, with the exception of gold, are exposed to air, native oxide layers are formed on the surfaces. In the case of monoenergetic implantation, the surfaces were cleaned using Ar+ beam bombardment prior to implantation. The materials were then bombarded with N2+ beam and eight sets of successful experiments were performed on each sample, using a rastered N2+ ion beam of energy of 2, 3, 4 and 5 keV with current densities of 1 μA/cm2 and 5 μA/cm22 for each energy. The bombarded samples were examined by ARXPS. After each complete implantation, XPS depth profiles were created using Ar+ beam at energy 2 ke V and current density 2 μA/cm2 . As the current density was chosen as one of the parameters, accurate determination of current density was very important. In the case of glow discharge, two sets of successful experiments were performed in each case, by exposing the samples to nitrogen plasma for the two conditions: at low pressure and high voltage and high pressure and low voltage. These samples were then examined by ARXPS. On the theoretical side, the major problem was prediction of the number of ions of an element that can be implanted in a given matrix. Although the programme is essentially on experimental study, but an attempt is being made to understand the current theoretical models, such as SATVAL, SUSPRE and TRIM. The experimental results were compared with theoretical predictions, in order to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms responsible. From the experimental results, considering possible experimental uncertainties, there is no evidence of significant variation in nitrogen saturation concentration with ion energy or ion current density in the range of 2-5 ke V, however, the retention characteristics of implantant seem to strongly depend on the chemical reactivity between ion species and target material. The experimental data suggests the presence of at least one thermal process. The discrepancy between the theoretical and experimental results could be the inability of the codes to account for molecular ion impact and thermal processes.

Multi-topic information filtering with a single user profile

In Information Filtering (IF) a user may be interested in several topics in parallel. But IF systems have been built on representational models derived from Information Retrieval and Text Categorization, which assume independence between terms. The linearity of these models results in user profiles that can only represent one topic of interest. We present a methodology that takes into account term dependencies to construct a single profile representation for multiple topics, in the form of a hierarchical term network. We also introduce a series of non-linear functions for evaluating documents against the profile. Initial experiments produced positive results.

Out in psychology:lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans and queer perspectives

There has been a recent explosion of interest in Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans Perspective Psychology amongst students and academics, and this interest is predicted to continue to rise. Recent media debates on subjects such as same–sex marriage have fuelled interest in LGBTQ perspectives. This edited collection showcases the latest thinking in LGBTQ psychology. The book has 21 chapters covering subjects such as same sex parenting, outing, young LGBTQ people, sport, learning disabilities, lesbian and gay identities etc. The book has an international focus, with contributors from UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand List of Contributors. Foreword by Jerry J. Bigner. 1. Introducing Out in Psychology (Victoria Clarke and Elizabeth Peel). 2. From lesbian and gay psychology to LGBTQ psychologies: A journey into the unknown (Victoria Clarke and Elizabeth Peel) 3. What comes after discourse analysis for LGBTQ psychology(Peter Hegarty). 4. Recognising race in LGBTQ psychology: Power, privilege and complicity (Damien W. Riggs). 5. Personality, individual differences and LGB psychology (Gareth Hagger Johnson). 6. Heteronormativity and the exclusion of bisexuality in psychology (Meg Barker). 7. A minority within a minority: Experiences of gay men with intellectual disabilities.(Christopher Bennett and Adrian Coyle). 8. Closet talk: The contemporary relevance of the closet in lesbian and gay interaction (Victoria Land and Celia Kitzinger) 9. Romance, rights, recognition, responsibilities and radicalism: Same-sex couples’ accounts of civil partnership and marriage (Victoria Clarke, Carole Burgoyne and Maree Burns). 10. The experience of social power in the lives of trans people (Clair Clifford and Jim Orford). 11. What do they look like and are they among us? Bisexuality, (dis.closure and (Maria Gurevich, Jo Bower, Cynthia M. Mathieson and Bramilee Dhayanandhan). 12. Heterosexism at work: Diversity training, discrimination law and the limits of liberal individualism (Rosie Harding and Elizabeth Peel). 13. Out on the ball fields: Lesbians in sport (Vikki Krane and Kerrie J. Kauer). 14. Homophobia, rights and community: Contemporary issues in the lives of LGB people in the UK (Sonja J. Ellis). 15. Striving for holistic success: How lesbians come out on top (Faith Rostad and Bonita C. Long). 16. On Passing: The Interactional Organization of Appearance Attributions in the Psychiatric Assessment of Transsexual Patients (Susan A. Speer and Richard Green). 17. Alcohol and gay men: Consumption, promotion and policy responses (Jeffrey Adams, Timothy McCreanor and Virginia Braun). 18. Towards a clinical-psychological approach to address the hetero sexual concerns of intersexed women (Lih-Mei Liao). 19. Educational psychology practice with LGB youth in schools: Individual and institutional interventions (Jeremy J. Monsen and Sydney Bailey). 20. Que(e)rying the meaning of lesbian health: Individual(izing and community discourses (Sara MacBride-Stewart). 21. Transsexualism: Diagnostic dilemmas, transgender politics and the future of transgender care (Katherine Johnson). Index.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

The individual and society in the GDR under Honecker : orthodoxy, dissidence and internal debate.

The thesis offers a comparative interdisciplinary approach to the examination of the intellectual debates about the relationship between individual and society in the GDR under Honecker. It shows that there was not only a continuum of debate between the academic disciplines, but also from the radical critics of the GDR leadership such as Robert Havemann, Rudolf Bahro and Stefan Heym through the social scientists, literary critics and legal theorists working in the academic institutions to theorists close to the GDR leadership. It also shows that the official line and policy of the ruling party itself on the question of the individual and society was not static over the period, but changed in response to internal and external pressures. Over the period 1971 - 1989 greater emphasis was placed by many intellectuals on the individual, his needs and interests. It was increasingly recognised that conflicts could exist between the individual and society in GDR socialism. Whereas the radical critics argued that these conflicts were due to features of GDR society, such as the hierarchical system of labour functions and bureaucracy, and extrapolated from this a general conflict between the political leadership and population, orthodox critics argued that conflicts existed between a specific individual and society and were largely due to external and historical factors. The internal critics also pointed to the social phenomena which were detrimental to the individual's development in the GDR, but they put forward less radical solutions. With the exception of a few radical young writers, all theorists studied in this thesis gave precedence to social interests over individual interests and so did not advocate a return to `individualistic' positions. The continuity of sometimes quite controversial discussions in the GDR academic journals and the flexibility of the official line and policy suggests that it is inappropriate to refer to GDR society under Honecker simply as totalitarian, although it did have some totalitarian features. What the thesis demonstrates is the existence of `Teiloffentlichkeiten' in which critical discussion is conducted even as the official, orthodox line is given out for public consumption in the high-circulation media.

Interaction of peptides, peptidomimetics and other drug candidates with the DI/tripeptide transport system in intestinal epithelial cells, using the in vitro caco-2 cell culture system

An uptake system was developed using Caco-2 cell monolayers and the dipeptide, glycyl-[3H]L-proline, as a probe compound. Glycyl-[3H]L-proline uptake was via the di-/tripeptide transport system (DTS) and, exhibited concentration-, pH- and temperature-dependency. Dipeptides inhibited uptake of the probe, and the design of the system allowed competitors to be ranked against one another with respect to affinity for the transporter. The structural features required to ensure or increase interaction with the DTS were defined by studying the effect of a series of glycyl-L-proline and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE)-inhibitor (SQ-29852) analogues on the uptake of the probe. The SQ-29852 structure was divided into six domains (A-F) and competitors were grouped into series depending on structural variations within specific regions. Domain A was found to prefer a hydrophobic function, such as a phenyl group, and was intolerant to positive charges and H+ -acceptors and donors. SQ-29852 analogues were more tolerant of substitutions in the C domain, compared to glycyl-L-proline analogues, suggesting that interactions along the length of the SQ-29852 molecule may override the effects of substitutions in the C domain. SQ-29852 analogues showed a preference for a positive function, such as an amine group in this region, but dipeptide structures favoured an uncharged substitution. Lipophilic substituents in domain D increased affinity of SQ-29852 analogues with the DTS. A similar effect was observed for ACE-NEP inhibitor analogues. Domain E, corresponding to the carboxyl group was found to be tolerant of esterification for SQ-29852 analogues but not for dipeptides. Structural features which may increase interaction for one series of compounds, may not have the same effect for another series, indicating that the presence of multiple recognition sites on a molecule may override the deleterious effect of anyone change. Modifying current, poorly absorbed peptidomimetic structures to fit the proposed hypothetical model may improve oral bioavailability by increasing affinity for the DTS. The stereochemical preference of the transporter was explored using four series of compounds (SQ-29852, lysylproline, alanylproline and alanylalanine enantiomers). The L, L stereochemistry was the preferred conformation for all four series, agreeing with previous studies. However, D, D enantiomers were shown in some cases to be substrates for the DTS, although exhibiting a lower affinity than their L, L counterparts. All the ACE-inhibitors and β-lactam antibiotics investigated, produced a degree of inhibition of the probe, and thus show some affinity for the DTS. This contrasts with previous reports that found several ACE inhibitors to be absorbed via a passive process, thus suggesting that compounds are capable of binding to the transporter site and inhibiting the probe without being translocated into the cell. This was also shown to be the case for oligodeoxynucleotide conjugated to a lipophilic group (vitamin E), and highlights the possibility that other orally administered drug candidates may exert non-specific effects on the DTS and possibly have a nutritional impact. Molecular modelling of selected ACE-NEP inhibitors revealed that the three carbonyl functions can be oriented in a similar direction, and this conformation was found to exist in a local energy-minimised state, indicating that the carbonyls may possibly be involved in hydrogen-bond formation with the binding site of the DTS.

Neuromagnetic investigations of functional organisation within human visual cortex

This thesis describes a series of experimental investigations into the functional organisation of human visual cortex using neuromagnetometry.This technique combines good spatial and temporal resolution enabling identification of the location and temporal response characteristics of cortical neurones within alert humans. To activate different neuronal populations and cortical areas a range of stimuli were used, the parameters of which were selected to match the known physiological properties of primate cortical neurones. In one series of experiments the evoked magnetic response was recorded to isoluminant red/green gratings. Co-registration of signal and magnetic resonance image data indicated a contribution to the response from visual areas V1, V2 and V4. To investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of neurones within area V1 the evoked response was recorded for a range of stimulus spatial and temporal frequencies. The response to isoluminant red/green gratings was dominated by a major component which was found to have bandpass spatial frequency tuning with a peak at 1-2 cycles/degree, falling to the level of the noise at 6-8 cycles/degree. The temporal frequency tuning characteristics of the response showed bimodal sensitivity with peaks at 0-1Hz and 4Hz. In a further series of experiments the luminance evoked response was recorded to red/black, yellow/black and achromatic gratings and in all cases was found to be more complex than the isoluminant chromatic response, comprising up to three distinct components. The major response peak showed bandpass spatial frequency tuning characteristics, peaking at 6-8 cycles/degree, falling to the level of the noise at 12-16 cycles/degree. The results provide evidence to suggest that within area V1 the same neuronal population encodes both chromatic and luminance information and has spatial frequency tuning properties consistent with single-opponent cells. Furthermore, the results indicate that cells within area V1 encode chromatic motion information over a wide range of temporal frequencies with temporal response characteristics suggestive of the existence of a sub-population of cells sensitive to high temporal frequencies.