Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

A multimodal physiotherapy programme plus deep water running for improving cancer-related fatigue and quality of life in breast cancer survivors

The aim of the study was to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of aquatic‐based exercise in the form of deep water running ( DWR ) as part of a multimodal physiotherapy programme ( MMPP ) for breast cancer survivors. A controlled clinical trial was conducted in 42 primary breast cancer survivors recruited from community‐based P rimary C are C entres. Patients in the experimental group received a MMPP incorporating DWR , 3 times a week, for an 8‐week period. The control group received a leaflet containing instructions to continue with normal activities. Statistically significant improvements and intergroup effect size were found for the experimental group for P iper F atigue S cale‐ R evised total score ( d = 0.7, P = 0.001), as well as behavioural/severity ( d = 0.6, P = 0.05), affective/meaning ( d = 1.0, P = 0.001) and sensory ( d = 0.3, P = 0.03) domains. Statistically significant differences between the experimental and control groups were also found for general health ( d = 0.5, P < 0.05) and quality of life ( d = 1.3, P < 0.05). All participants attended over 80% of sessions, with no major adverse events reported. The results of this study suggest MMPP incorporating DWR decreases cancer‐related fatigue and improves general health and quality of life in breast cancer survivors. Further, the high level of adherence and lack of adverse events indicate such a programme is safe and feasible.

A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Experimental Study of crack propagation in carbon steel using acoustic emission

Acoustic emission technique has become a significant and powerful structural health monitoring tool for structures. Researches to date have been done on crack location, fatigue crack propagation in materials and severity assessment of failure using acoustic emission technique. Determining severity of failure in steel structures using acoustic emission technique is still a challenge to accurately determine the relationship between the severity of crack propagation and acoustic emission activities. In this study three point bending test on low carbon steel samples along with acoustic emission technique have been used to determine crack propagation and severity. A notch is introduced at the tension face of the loading point to the samples to initiate the crack. The results show that the percentage of load drop of the steel specimen has a reciprocal relationship with the crack opening i.e. crack opening zones are influenced by the loading rate. In post yielding region, common acoustic emission signal parameters such as, signal strength, energy and amplitudes are found to be higher than those at pre-yielding and at yielding.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.

Inhaled corticosteroids for sub-acute cough in children (Protocol)

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: To evaluate the efficacy of inhaled corticosteroids in reducing the severity of cough in children with sub-acute cough (defined as cough duration of two to four weeks).

Reawakening reflective capacity in the psychotherapy of schizophrenia : a case study

Disturbed sense of self has long been identified as a common experience among people suffering with schizophrenia. More recently, metacognitive deficits have been found to be a stable and independent feature of schizophrenia that contributes to disturbed self-experience and impedes recovery. Individual psychotherapy designed to target poor metacognition has been shown to promote a more coherent sense of self and enhanced recovery in people with schizophrenia. We provide a report of a 2-year individual psychotherapy with a patient suffering with chronic schizophrenia. Progress was assessed over the course of treatment using the Metacognition Assessment Scale and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. The patient experienced improved metacognitive capacity and reduced symptom severity over the course of therapy. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

Potential role of bioactive lipids in the development of non-antibody mediated transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI)

Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) has been the leading cause of transfusion-related morbidity and mortality in the UK and the USA in recent years. A threshold mechanism of TRALI has been proposed in which both patient factors (type and/or severity of clinical insult) and blood product factors (strength and/or concentration of antibodies or biological response modifiers) interact to surpass a threshold for TRALI development (Bux et al. Br J Haematol; 2007; 136: 788-99). The risk of developing antibody-mediated TRALI has been minimised by the introduction of risk-reduction strategies such as limiting the use of plasma from female donors. In contrast, there are no strategies currently in place to mitigate the development of non-antibody mediated TRALI as the mechanisms remain largely undefined. Previous studies have implicated non-polar lipids such as arachidonic acid and various species of hydroxyeicosatetranoic acid (HETE) in the development of non-antibody mediated TRALI (Silliman et al. Transfusion; 2011; 51: 2549-54), however the contribution of these lipids to the development of an inflammatory response in TRALI is poorly understood.

Sensorineural hearing loss after treatment for head and neck cancer : a review of the literature

Background Definitive cisplatin-based is increasingly delivered as the treatment of choice for patients with head and neck cancer. Sensorineural hearing loss is a significant long term side effect of cisplatin-based chemoradiation and is associated with potential major quality of life issues for patients. Purpose The purpose of this manuscript was to review the mechanism behind sensorineural hearing loss in patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation, including incidence, the contributions of radiotherapy and cisplatin to sensorineural hearing loss and the impact of the toxicity on patient quality of life. Methods Database searches were conducted through PubMed (National Centre for Biotechnology Information) and OvidSP Medline via the Queensland University of Technology Library website. General article searches were conducted through the online search engine Google Scholar. Articles were excluded if the full-text was unavailable, they were not in English or if they were published prior to 1990. Keywords included hearing loss, ototoxicity, cancer, quality of life, cisplatin and radiotherapy. Results/Discussion The total number of journal articles accessed was 290. Due to exclusion criteria, 129 articles were deemed appropriated for review. Findings indicated that sensorineural hearing loss is a significant, long term complication for patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation. Current literature recognises the ototoxic effects of cisplatin and cranial irradiation as separate entities, however the impact of combined modality therapy on sensorineural hearing loss is seldom reported. Multiple risk factors for hearing loss are described, however there are contradictory opinions on incidence and severity and the exact radiation dose threshold responsible for inducing hearing loss in patients receiving combined modality therapy. Sensorineural hearing loss creates a subset of complexities for patients with head and neck cancer and that these patients face significant quality of life impairment. Conclusion The literature review identified that sensorineural hearing loss is a major quality of life issue for patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation for head and neck cancer. Further investigation evaluating the contribution of cisplatin-based chemoradiation to sensorineural hearing loss and the subsequent effect on patient quality of life is warranted.