Forecasting with difference and trend stationary models

Although difference-stationary (DS) and trend-stationary (TS) processes have been subject to considerable analysis, there are no direct comparisons for each being the data-generation process (DGP). We examine incorrect choice between these models for forecasting for both known and estimated parameters. Three sets of Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the analysis, to evaluate the biases in conventional standard errors when each model is mis-specified, compute the relative mean-square forecast errors of the two models for both DGPs, and investigate autocorrelated errors, so both models can better approximate the converse DGP. The outcomes are surprisingly different from established results.

Multiple stationary solutions of an irradiated slab

A mathematical model describing the heat budget of an irradiated medium is introduced. The one-dimensional form of the equations and boundary conditions are presented and analysed. Heat transport at one face of the slab occurs by absorption (and reflection) of an incoming beam of short-wave radiation with a fraction of this radiation penetrating into the body of the slab, a diffusive heat flux in the slab and a prescribed incoming heat flux term. The other face of the slab is immersed in its own melt and is considered to be a free surface. Here, temperature continuity is prescribed and evolution of the surface is determined by a Stefan condition. These boundary conditions are flexible enough to describe a range of situations such as a laser shining on an opaque medium, or the natural environment of polar sea ice or lake ice. A two-stream radiation model is used which replaces the simple Beer’s law of radiation attenuation frequently used for semi-infinite domains. The stationary solutions of the governing equations are sought and it is found that there exists two possible stationary solutions for a given set of boundary conditions and a range of parameter choices. It is found that the existence of two stationary solutions is a direct result of the model of radiation absorption, due to its effect on the albedo of the medium. A linear stability analysis and numerical calculations indicate that where two stationary solutions exist, the solution corresponding to a larger thickness is always stable and the solution corresponding to a smaller thickness is unstable. Numerical simulations reveal that when there are two solutions, if the slab is thinner than the smaller stationary thickness it will melt completely, whereas if the slab is thicker than the smaller stationary thickness it will evolve toward the larger stationary thickness. These results indicate that other mechanisms (e.g. wave-induced agglomeration of crystals) are necessary to grow a slab from zero initial thickness in the parameter regime that yields two stationary solutions.

Draft genome sequence of pseudomonas corrugata, a phytopathogenic bacterium with potential industrial applications

Pseudomonas corrugata was first described as the causal agent of a tomato disease called 'pith necrosis' yet it is considered as a biological resource in various fields such as biocontrol of plant diseases and production of industrially promising microbial biopolymers (mcl-PHA). Here we report the first draft genome sequence of this species.

Sequence analysis of a CTX-M-1 IncI1 plasmid found in Salmonella enterica 4,5,12,i:-, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae on a single UK pig farm

OBJECTIVES: In 2009, CTX-M Enterobacteriaceae and Salmonella isolates were recovered from a UK pig farm, prompting studies into the dissemination of the resistance and to establish any relationships between the isolates. METHODS: PFGE was used to elucidate clonal relationships between isolates whilst plasmid profiling, restriction analysis, sequencing and PCR were used to characterize the CTX-M-harbouring plasmids. RESULTS: Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella 4,5,12:i:- and Bovismorbificans resistant to cefotaxime (n = 65) were recovered and 63 were shown by PCR to harbour a group 1 CTX-M gene. The harbouring hosts were diverse, but the group 1 CTX-M plasmids were common. Three sequenced CTX-M plasmids from E. coli, K. pneumoniae and Salmonella enterica serotype 4,5,12:i:- were identical except for seven mutations and highly similar to IncI1 plasmid ColIb-P9. Two antimicrobial resistance regions were identified: one inserted upstream of yacABC harbouring ISCR2 transposases, sul2 and floR; and the other inserted within shfB of the pilV shufflon harbouring the ISEcp1 transposase followed by blaCTX-M-1. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that an ST108 IncI1 plasmid encoding a blaCTX-M-1 gene had disseminated across multiple genera on this farm, an example of horizontal gene transfer of the blaCTX-M-1 gene.

C. colchicum - variation measured by DNA sequence

Cyclamen colchicum has a mixed history in the hands of botanists. This paper examines the genetic identity of a group of wild Cyclamen populations from the Caucasus to discover whther they are Cyclamen colchicum, C. purpurascens or a mixture of the two. The collections supplemented by material collected at the type locality for C. colchicum, proved to be a single but variable genetic group of C. colchicum that was distinct from C. purpurascens.

Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding

Quasi-stationary convective bands can cause large localised rainfall accumulations and are often anchored by topographic features. Here, the predictability of and mechanisms causing one such band are determined using ensembles of the Met Office Unified Model at convection-permitting resolution (1.5 km grid length). The band was stationary over the UK for 3 h and produced rainfall accumulations of up to 34 mm. The amount and location of the predicted rainfall was highly variable despite only small differences between the large-scale conditions of the ensemble members. Only three of 21 members of the control ensemble produced a stationary rain band; these three had the weakest upstream winds and hence lowest Froude number. Band formation was due to the superposition of two processes: lee-side convergence resulting from flow around an upstream obstacle and thermally forced convergence resulting from elevated heating over the upstream terrain. Both mechanisms were enhanced when the Froude number was lower. By increasing the terrain height (thus reducing the Froude number), the band became more predictable. An ensemble approach is required to successfully predict the possible occurrence of such quasi-stationary convective events because the rainfall variability is largely modulated by small variations of the large-scale flow. However, high-resolution models are required to accurately resolve the small-scale interactions of the flow with the topography upon which the band formation depends. Thus, although topography provides some predictability, the quasi-stationary convective bands anchored by it are likely to remain a forecasting challenge for many years to come.

Self-assembly of a Model Peptide incorporating a Hexa-Histidine sequence attached to an Oligo-Alanine sequence, and binding to Gold NTA/Nickel nanoparticles

Amyloid fibrils are formed by a model surfactant-like peptide (Ala)10-(His)6 containing a hexahistidine tag. This peptide undergoes a remarkable two-step self-assembly process with two distinct critical aggregation concentrations (cac’s), probed by fluorescence techniques. A micromolar range cac is ascribed to the formation of prefibrillar structures, whereas a millimolar range cac is associated with the formation of well-defined but more compact fibrils. We examine the labeling of these model tagged amyloid fibrils using Ni-NTA functionalized gold nanoparticles (Nanogold). Successful labeling is demonstrated via electron microscopy imaging. The specificity of tagging does not disrupt the β-sheet structure of the peptide fibrils. Binding of fibrils and Nanogold is found to influence the circular dichroism associated with the gold nanoparticle plasmon absorption band. These results highlight a new approach to the fabrication of functionalized amyloid fibrils and the creation of peptide/nanoparticle hybrid materials.

Study of picosecond processes of an intercalated dipyridophenazine Cr(iii) complex bound to defined sequence DNAs using transient absorption and time-resolved infrared methods

Picosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) measurements of rac-[Cr(phen)2(dppz)]3+ (1) intercalated into double-stranded guanine-containing DNA reveal that the excited state is very rapidly quenched. As no evidence was found for the transient electron transfer products, it is proposed that the back electron transfer reaction must be even faster (<3 ps).

Variability of dayside high latitude convection associated with a sequence of auroral transients

10 second resolution ionospheric convection data covering the invariant latitude range from 71° to 76°, obtained by using the EISCAT UHF and VHF radars, are combined with optical data from Ny Ålesund during a sequence of auroral transients in the post-noon sector (∼ 15 MLT). Satellite observations of polar cap convection patterns suggest negative BZ and BY components of the interplanetary magnetic field. Burst-like enhancements of westward (sunward) post-noon convection were accompanied by eastward moving auroral forms at higher latitudes, above the convection reversal boundary. In this case the background convection was weak, whereas the integrated potential drop across the radar field-of-view associated with the westward flow bursts was typically ∼ 20-35 kV. The auroral phenomenon consists of a series of similar events with a mean repetition period of 8 min. A close correlation between the auroral activity and convection enhancements in the cleft ionosphere is demonstrated.

Auroral bright spot sequence near 1400 MLT: Coordinated optical and ion drift observations

Optical observations of a dayside auroral brightening sequence, by means of all-sky TV cameras and meridian scanning photometers, have been combined with EISCAT ion drift observations within the same invariant latitude-MLT sector. The observations were made during a January 1989 campaign by utilizing the high F region ion densities during the maximum phase of the solar cycle. The characteristic intermittent optical events, covering ∼300 km in east-west extent, move eastward (antisunward) along the poleward boundary of the persistent background aurora at velocities of ∼1.5 km s−1 and are associated with ion flows which swing from eastward to westward, with a subsequent return to eastward, during the interval of a few minutes when there is enhanced auroral emission within the radar field of view. The breakup of discrete auroral forms occurs at the reversal (negative potential) that forms between eastward plasma flow, maximizing near the persistent arc poleward boundary, and strong transient westward flow to the south. The reported events, covering a 35 min interval around 1400 MLT, are embedded within a longer period of similar auroral activity between 0830 (1200 MLT) and 1300 UT (1600 MLT). These observations are discussed in relation to recent models of boundary layer plasma dynamics and the associated magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The ionospheric events may correspond to large-scale wave like motions of the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL)/plasma sheet (PS) boundary. On the basis of this interpretation the observed spot size, speed and repetition period (∼10 min) give a wavelength (the distance between spots) of ∼900 km in the present case. The events can also be explained as ionospheric signatures of newly opened flux tubes associated with reconnection bursts at the magnetopause near 1400 MLT. We also discuss these data in relation to random, patchy reconnection (as has recently been invoked to explain the presence of the sheathlike plasma on closed field lines in the LLBL). In view of the lack of IMF data, and the existing uncertainty on the location of the open-closed field line boundary relative to the optical events, an unambiguous discrimination between the different alternatives is not easily obtained.

Controlled variation of monomer sequence-distribution in the synthesis of aromatic poly(ether ketone)s

The effects of varying the alkali metal cation in the high-temperature nucleophilic synthesis of a semi-crystalline, aromatic poly(ether ketone) have been systematically investigated, and striking variations in the sequence-distributions and thermal characteristics of the resulting polymers were found. Polycondensation of 4,4'-dihydroxybenzophenone with 1,3-bis(4-fluorobenzoyl)benzene in diphenylsulfone as solvent, in the presence of an alkali metal carbonate M2CO3 (M= Li, Na, K, or Rb) as base, affords a range of different polymers that vary in the distribution pattern of 2-ring and 3-ring monomer units along the chain. Lithium carbonate gives an essentially alternating and highly crystalline polymer, but the degree of sequence-randomisation increases progressively as the alkali metal series is descended, with rubidium carbonate giving a fully random and non-thermally-crystallisable polymer. Randomisation during polycondensation is shown to result from reversible cleavage of the ether linkages in the polymer by fluoride ions, and an isolated sample of alternating-sequence polymer is thus converted to a fully randomised material on heating with rubidium fluoride.

Draft genome sequence of Pseudomonas corrugata, a phytopathogenic bacterium with potential industrial applications

Pseudomonas corrugata was first described as the causal agent of a tomato disease called ‘pith necrosis’ yet it is considered as a biological resource in various fields such as biocontrol of plant diseases and production of industrially promising microbial biopolymers (mcl-PHA). Here we report the first draft genome sequence of this species.