Memory of Recessions

This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of recessions on potential output. In contrast to the assumption in mainstream macroeconomic models that economic fluctuations do not change potential output paths, the evidence is that they do in the case of recessions. A model is proposed to explain this phenomenon, based on an analogy with water flows in porous media. Because of the discrete adjustments made by heterogeneous economic agents in such a world, potential output displays hysteresis with regard to aggregate demand shocks, and thus retains a memory of the shocks associated with recessions.

Mass migration of juvenile Biomphalaria glabrata snails bred under semi-natural conditions

For the development of studies on snail interspecific competition special in-door laboratory channels were built. In the all five channels seeded with adult specimens of Biomphalaria glabrata mass migration of juvenile snails outside the water was observed. Most of the migrant snails presented apertural lamellae. Data collected during the period of two years, showed the regression of the migration phenomenon and the disappearance of the lamellate snails.

Exclusive Nightclubs and Lonely Hearts Columns: Nonmonotone Participation in Optional Intermediation

In many decentralised markets, the traders who benefit most from an exchange do not employ intermediaries even though they could easily afford them. At the same time, employing intermediaries is not worthwhile for traders who benefit little from trade. Together, these decisions amount to non-monotone participation choices in intermediation: only traders of middle “type” employ intermediaries, while the rest, the high and the low types, prefer to search for a trading partner directly. We provide a theoretical foundation for this, hitherto unexplained, phenomenon. We build a dynamic matching model, where a trader’s equilibrium bargaining share is a convex increasing function of her type. We also show that this is indeed a necessary condition for the existence of non-monotone equilibria.

Synanthropic trends in urban andextraurban taxocenoses of Sarcophaginae (Diptera) in three central european cities

An attempt has been made to characterize the synanthropic trends in Sarcophaginae of three Central European cities, viz. Brno, Bratislava and Budapest. The polar ordination of both sarcophagine taxa and of their taxocenoses revealed clear-cut trends towards culturophily and synanthropy in the male preconnubial aggregations of Sarchophaginae evidencing that this group of high Diptera represent an excellent model for the study of this phenomenon.

Expansió accelerada de l’univers i teories de gravetat modificada a grans escales

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Physics Department de la New York University, United States, Estats Units, entre 2006 i 2008. Una de les observacions de més impacte en la cosmologia moderna ha estat la determinació empírica que l’Univers es troba actualment en una fase d’Expansió Accelerada (EA). Aquest fenòmen implica que o bé l’Univers està dominat per un nou sector de matèria/energia, o bé la Relativitat General deixa de tenir validesa a escales cosmològiques. La primera possibilitat comprèn els models d’Energia Fosca (EF), i el seu principal problema és que l’EF ha de tenir propietats tan especials que es fan difícils de justificar teòricament. La segona possibilitat requereix la construcció de teories consistents de Gravetat Modificada a Grans Distàncies (GMGD), que són una generalització dels models de gravetat massiva. L’interès fenomenològic per aquestes teories també va resorgir amb l’aparició dels primers exemples de models de GMGD, com ara el model de Dvali, Gabadadze i Porrati (DGP), que consisteix en un tipus de brana en una dimensió extra. Malauradament, però, aquest model no permet explicar de forma consistent l’EA de l’Univers. Un dels objectius d’aquest projecte ha estat establir la viabilitat interna i fenomenològica dels models de GMGD. Des del punt de vista fenomenològic, ens hem centrat en la questió més important a la pràctica: trobar signatures observacionals que permetin distingir els models de GMGD dels d’EF. A nivell més teòric, també hem investigat el significat de les inestabilitats del model DGP.L’altre gran objectiu que ens vam proposar va ser la construcció de noves teories de GMGD. En la segona part d’aquest projecte, hem elaborat i mostrat la consistència del model “DGP en Cascada”, que generalitza el model DGP a més dimensions extra, i representa el segon model consistent i invariant-Lorentz a l’espai pla conegut. L’existència d’altres models de GMGD més enllà de DGP és de gran interès atès que podria permetre obtenir l’EA de l’Univers de forma purament geomètrica.

Inseguridad ciudadana subjetiva/miedo al delito: límites para la viabilidad de la transferencia de políticas de seguridad

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en el Centre of Criminology de la University of Toronto, Canadà, entre 2006 y 2008. El miedo al delito como ámbito temático lleva 40 años de andadura y cuenta con cientos de investigaciones en su acervo. Dicha subdisciplina ha utilizado la expresión “miedo al delito” para referirse a un conjunto de conceptos académicos que ella misma va desarrollando, así como a lo que considera una experiencia subjetiva que pretende estudiar. Tanto el concepto como la experiencia han sido vagamente catalogados de respuesta emocional frente al delito o imágenes asociadas a éste. A pesar de los estudios más empíricos y de las teorías más positivistas, que tratan el miedo al delito como un fenómeno que puede ser medido y a cuyo conocimiento nos podemos ir aproximando cada vez con mayor precisión, con el trabajo de este proyecto se puede concluir que el miedo al delito constituye un elemento semántico-conceptual de las categorías académica y popular de delito. Los enfoques culturalistas o hermenéuticos han apuntado esta cuestión pero, simultáneamente, han seguido admitiendo la complementariedad entre enfoques. En principio, admitir el valor constitutivo del miedo al delito en la noción de delito parece que no excluye la necesidad de conocer si los temores a ser víctima de un delito han aumentado en nuestra ciudad, ni el saber por qué ello ha sido así. Apropiarse de tales saberes tal vez sea la única forma de aislar factores discretos que puedan ser manipulados en políticas públicas para erradicar el temor cuyo incremento se supone verificado con las mediciones. Sin embargo, puesto que lo registrado han sido actitudes cognitivas y no emociones, los eventuales programas de intervención deberían ser ideados en el mejor de los casos, con la misma complejidad que la propia formación de creencias lo que lo haría inoperativo. Acción bianual.

Toux sèche, douleurs thoraciques et dyspnée chez un patient atteint d'une polyarthrite rhumatoïde [Dry cough, chest pain and difficult breathing in a patient with rheumatoid arthritis]

Pulmonary involvement is the most frequent extra-articular manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis. The occurrence of a chronic hydro-pneumo-thorax associated with pulmonary nodules is rare. Cavitation of the most superficial nodules and their rupture into the pleural cavity are most likely involved in this complication. The presence of broncho-pleural fistulae may be responsible for the persistence of the phenomenon in our patient.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.

Il desiderio materno nei casi di maltrattamento infantile

The work of this thesis would like to investigate two particular questions about the care of underage: on the one hand, the maltreatment, and the mother's desire on the other hand. About the first, this proposal try to underscore the elaborate irregularity and disparity related to this phenomenon and his historical evolution. The objective's thesis propose to underline that the abuse crosses the crisis of educational dimension inside and outside the family. We are talking about a type of crisi that places at the origin of a specific clinic and that it is about the maltreatment designated, at the same time, to cope with the educational void and with the ill-treated under age's hardships. The so-called clinic of the maltreatment horns, therefore, with the purpose to join and to set in order the normative and educational aspects. However, the prescriptive requirement is intended to measure against the same one crisis in a paradoxical way; the laws and the juveniles court must make up for the lack absence of the rules that characterized the maltreatment, getting around to use the typical reference that traditionally were been at the base of the educational way's construction. The same crimes on underage often found in the father the responsibility. The requirements and the therapeutic needs has utilized the theoretical construct of the trauma as the key line of clinical practice. On the one hand, the trauma was been paired controversially to the psychoanalytical concepts as the notion of the phantom, in the same manner that the objective truth is been opposed to the notion of the imagination and fantasy; on the other hand, the trauma was gotten to be the mark and the characteristic that defined the individual identity of the mistreated persons, regardless of the person's clinical structure or, generally, regardless of the their individual position. Both the normative demand and therapeutic converge on the idealization of the imaginary figure that is able to supply to every type of maltreatment: the mother. This position is connected on theoretical construct well-established in the mythology, that associated the mother figure to a natural dimension; this is related to the second point at issue: the mother's desire. The awareness of the mother figure in natural and idealized terms describes accusingly and negatively the trauma, without seeing the difference between trauma that helps to give a structure to the individual position from the trauma solely devastating. The mother's mythology, therefore, is in an evident antagonism with the female figure and woman's sexuality. In these way the maltreatment's clinic suggests that a woman is able to be a mother only when she doesn't appreciate the rule of female. This situation preclusives a comparison with own sexuality and gives to the women a complex of castration. The clinic cases reported highlight as these difficulties are the expression of the familiarity's heredity that wasn't been sufficiently elaborated. This condition (into the relation between mother and his child) turn the infant in the incapacity to symbolized and it doesn't help him to accede to the positive trauma, to the language and to the edipic rule; this is the reason why the child toils difficulties to approach to own personality and to orient himself in the relation with his body, with the body of the adults and the same age children.

The Inventor Balance and the Functional Specialization in Global Inventive Activities

We study the functional specialization whereby some countries contribute relatively more inventors vs. organizations in the production of inventions at a global scale. We propose a conceptual framework to explain this type of functional specialization, which posits the presence of feedbacks between two distinct sub-systems, each one providing inventors and organizations. We quantify the phenomenon by means of a new metric, the “inventor balance”, which we compute using patent data. We show that the observed imbalances, which are often conspicuous, are determined by several factors: the innovativeness of a country relative to its level of economic development, relative factor endowments, the degree of technological specialization and, last, cultural traits. We argue that the “inventor balance” is a useful indicator for policy makers, and its routine analysis could lead to better informed innovation policies.

El parlar salat: descripció, àmbit geogràfic i ús

La recerca, que ha durat quatre anys (2004-2008), s’ha centrat en l’estudi del parlar salat, un subdialecte del català oriental que es caracteritza per una sola isoglossa: l’ús de l’article salat (es, sa), és a dir, l’element derivat del demostratiu llatí “ipse”. Aquesta varietat ―poc estudiada― no té un abast gaire definit. Se sol situar en una estreta franja del litoral de Girona, entre Blanes i Begur, i que, després, isoladament, reapareix a Cadaqués, on es manté amb més vigència. A banda que els estudis no estableixen els límits geogràfics del fenomen de manera precisa, es tenen indicis que el tret que defineix i dóna nom a la varietat es troba en un acusat procés de recessió i de pèrdua, ja que només l’empren persones d’edat avançada (en general, pescadors). La tesi concreta l’estat actual del parlar salat. També fixa la cronologia del canvi de l’article salat (és a dir, en quin moment s’ha substituït per l’article literari, el, la) i es decriuen els factors que l’han propiciat (migració, turisme, la pressió de l’estàndard, etc.). El parlar salat és un exemple de desdialectalització del català, atès que es verifica que el tret que el caracteritza va començar a caure en desús en dels anys cinquanta del segle passat i que, avui dia, pràcticament ja s’ha extingit (només es manté en parlants de Cadaqués nascuts després de 1983). Per tant, s’evidencia que cal replantejar-se l’actual divisió dialectal de la llengua catalana ja que el subdialecte estudiat no existeix.

Is Graduate Under-employment Persistent? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper examines the persistence of under-employment amongst UK higher education graduates. For the cohort of individuals who graduated in 2002/3, micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency, are used to calculate the rates of "non-graduate job" employment 6 months and 42 months after graduation. A logic regression analysis suggests the underemployment is not a short-term phenomenon and is systematically related to a set of observable characteristics. It is also found that under-employment 42 months after graduation, which is consistent with the view that the nature of the first job after graduation is important in terms of occupational attainment later in the life-cycle.

The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information

This paper considers the optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy when the central bank conducts policy based on its private information about the state of the economy and is unable to commit. Society seeks to maximize social welfare by imposing restrictions on the central bank's actions over time, and the central bank takes these restrictions and the New Keynesian Phillips curve as constraints. By solving a dynamic mechanism design problem we find that it is optimal to grant "constrained discretion" to the central bank by imposing both upper and lower bounds on permissible inflation, and that these bounds must be set in a history-dependent way. The optimal degree of discretion varies over time with the severity of the time-inconsistency problem, and, although no discretion is optimal when the time-inconsistency problem is very severe, our numerical experiment suggests that no-discretion is a transient phenomenon, and that some discretion is granted eventually.