Demand forecasting process design and methods in medium sized enterprise

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes and management of demand. In literature review were different processes found and forecasting methods and techniques interviewed. Also role of bullwhip effect in supply chain was identified and how to manage it with information sharing operations. In the empirical part of study is at first described current situation and challenges in case company. After that will new way to handle demand introduced with target budget creation and how information sharing with 5 products and a few customers would bring benefits to company. Also the new S&OP process created within this study and organization for it.

Neuroethologic differences in sleep deprivation induced by the single- and multiple-platform methods

It has been proposed that the multiple-platform method (MP) for desynchronized sleep (DS) deprivation eliminates the stress induced by social isolation and by the restriction of locomotion in the single-platform (SP) method. MP, however, induces a higher increase in plasma corticosterone and ACTH levels than SP. Since deprivation is of heuristic value to identify the functional role of this state of sleep, the objective of the present study was to determine the behavioral differences exhibited by rats during sleep deprivation induced by these two methods. All behavioral patterns exhibited by a group of 7 albino male Wistar rats submitted to 4 days of sleep deprivation by the MP method (15 platforms, spaced 150 mm apart) and by 7 other rats submitted to sleep deprivation by the SP method were recorded in order to elaborate an ethogram. The behavioral patterns were quantitated in 10 replications by naive observers using other groups of 7 rats each submitted to the same deprivation schedule. Each quantification session lasted 35 min and the behavioral patterns presented by each rat over a period of 5 min were counted. The results obtained were: a) rats submitted to the MP method changed platforms at a mean rate of 2.62 ± 1.17 platforms h-1 animal-1; b) the number of episodes of noninteractive waking patterns for the MP animals was significantly higher than that for SP animals (1077 vs 768); c) additional episodes of waking patterns (26.9 ± 18.9 episodes/session) were promoted by social interaction in MP animals; d) the cumulative number of sleep episodes observed in the MP test (311) was significantly lower (chi-square test, 1 d.f., P<0.05) than that observed in the SP test (534); e) rats submitted to the MP test did not show the well-known increase in ambulatory activity observed after the end of the SP test; f) comparison of 6 MP and 6 SP rats showed a significantly shorter latency to the onset of DS in MP rats (7.8 ± 4.3 and 29.0 ± 25.0 min, respectively; Student t-test, P<0.05). We conclude that the social interaction occurring in the MP test generates additional stress since it increases the time of forced wakefulness and reduces the time of rest promoted by synchronized sleep.

Comparison of three methods for the determination of baroreflex sensitivity in conscious rats

Baroreflex sensitivity was studied in the same group of conscious rats using vasoactive drugs (phenylephrine and sodium nitroprusside) administered by three different approaches: 1) bolus injection, 2) steady-state (blood pressure (BP) changes produced in steps), 3) ramp infusion (30 s, brief infusion). The heart rate (HR) responses were evaluated by the mean index (mean ratio of all HR changes and mean arterial pressure (MAP) changes), by linear regression and by the logistic method (maximum gain of the sigmoid curve by a logistic function). The experiments were performed on three consecutive days. Basal MAP and resting HR were similar on all days of the study. Bradycardic responses evaluated by the mean index (-1.5 ± 0.2, -2.1 ± 0.2 and -1.6 ± 0.2 bpm/mmHg) and linear regression (-1.8 ± 0.3, -1.4 ± 0.3 and -1.7 ± 0.2 bpm/mmHg) were similar for all three approaches used to change blood pressure. The tachycardic responses to decreases of MAP were similar when evaluated by linear regression (-3.9 ± 0.8, -2.1 ± 0.7 and -3.8 ± 0.4 bpm/mmHg). However, the tachycardic mean index (-3.1 ± 0.4, -6.6 ± 1 and -3.6 ± 0.5 bpm/mmHg) was higher when assessed by the steady-state method. The average gain evaluated by logistic function (-3.5 ± 0.6, -7.6 ± 1.3 and -3.8 ± 0.4 bpm/mmHg) was similar to the reflex tachycardic values, but different from the bradycardic values. Since different ways to change BP may alter the afferent baroreceptor function, the MAP changes obtained during short periods of time (up to 30 s: bolus and ramp infusion) are more appropriate to prevent the acute resetting. Assessment of the baroreflex sensitivity by mean index and linear regression permits a separate analysis of gain for reflex bradycardia and reflex tachycardia. Although two values of baroreflex sensitivity cannot be evaluated by a single symmetric logistic function, this method has the advantage of better comparing the baroreflex sensitivity of animals with different basal blood pressures.

Phenotyping and genotyping methods applied to investigate the relatedness of Brazilian isolates of Enterobacter cloacae

In order to evaluate the resolving power of several typing methods to identify relatedness among Brazilian strains of Enterobacter cloacae, we selected twenty isolates from different patients on three wards of a University Hospital (Orthopedics, Nephrology, and Hematology). Traditional phenotyping methods applied to isolates included biotyping, antibiotic sensitivity, phage-typing, and O-serotyping. Plasmid profile analysis, ribotyping, and macrorestriction analysis by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were used as genotyping methods. Sero- and phage-typing were not useful since the majority of isolates could not be subtyped by these methods. Biotyping, antibiogram and plasmid profile permitted us to classify the samples into different groups depending on the method used, and consequently were not reliable. Ribotyping and PFGE were significantly correlated with the clinical epidemiological analysis. PFGE did not type strains containing nonspecific DNase. Ribotyping was the most discriminative method for typing Brazilian isolates of E. cloacae.

Comparison and problems between Traditional and Agile software development methods

In today’s world because of the rapid advancement in the field of technology and business, the requirements are not clear, and they are changing continuously in the development process. Due to those changes in the requirements the software development becomes very difficult. Use of traditional software development methods such as waterfall method is not a good option, as the traditional software development methods are not flexible to requirements and the software can be late and over budget. For developing high quality software that satisfies the customer, the organizations can use software development methods, such as agile methods which are flexible to change requirements at any stage in the development process. The agile methods are iterative and incremental methods that can accelerate the delivery of the initial business values through the continuous planning and feedback, and there is close communication between the customer and developers. The main purpose of the current thesis is to find out the problems in traditional software development and to show how agile methods reduced those problems in software development. The study also focuses the different success factors of agile methods, the success rate of agile projects and comparison between traditional and agile software development.

Application of isotope-selective non-dispersive infrared spectrometry for the evaluation of the 13C-urea breath test: comparison with three concordant methods

The aim of this work was to compare the performance of isotope-selective non-dispersive infrared spectrometry (IRIS) for the 13C-urea breath test with the combination of the 14C-urea breath test (14C-UBT), urease test and histologic examination for the diagnosis of H. pylori (HP) infection. Fifty-three duodenal ulcer patients were studied. All patients were submitted to gastroscopy to detect HP by the urease test, histologic examination and 14C-UBT. To be included in the study the results of the 3 tests had to be concordant. Within one month after admission to the study the patients were submitted to IRIS with breath samples collected before and 30 min after the ingestion of 75 mg 13C-urea dissolved in 200 ml of orange juice. The samples were mailed and analyzed 11.5 (4-21) days after collection. Data were analyzed statistically by the chi-square and Mann-Whitney test and by the Spearman correlation coefficient. Twenty-six patients were HP positive and 27 negative. There was 100% agreement between the IRIS results and the HP status determined by the other three methods. Using a cutoff value of delta-over-baseline (DOB) above 4.0 the IRIS showed a mean value of 19.38 (minimum = 4.2, maximum = 41.3, SD = 10.9) for HP-positive patients and a mean value of 0.88 (minimum = 0.10, maximum = 2.5, SD = 0.71) for negative patients. Using a cutoff value corresponding to 0.800% CO2/weight (kg), the 14C-UBT showed a mean value of 2.78 (minimum = 0.89, maximum = 5.22, SD = 1.18) in HP-positive patients. HP-negative patients showed a mean value of 0.37 (minimum = 0.13, maximum = 0.77, SD = 0.17). IRIS is a low-cost, easy to manage, highly sensitive and specific test for H. pylori detection. Storing and mailing the samples did not interfere with the performance of the test.

Digitization Project of Kindred Languages : materials, methods and tools for researchers

Presentation at "Soome-ugri keelte andmebaasid ja e-leksikograafia" at Eesti Keele Instituut (Institution of Estonian Languages) in Tallnn on the 18th of November 2014.

Application and development of numerical methods for the modelling of innovative gas cooled fission reactors

Innovative gas cooled reactors, such as the pebble bed reactor (PBR) and the gas cooled fast reactor (GFR) offer higher efficiency and new application areas for nuclear energy. Numerical methods were applied and developed to analyse the specific features of these reactor types with fully three dimensional calculation models. In the first part of this thesis, discrete element method (DEM) was used for a physically realistic modelling of the packing of fuel pebbles in PBR geometries and methods were developed for utilising the DEM results in subsequent reactor physics and thermal-hydraulics calculations. In the second part, the flow and heat transfer for a single gas cooled fuel rod of a GFR were investigated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods. An in-house DEM implementation was validated and used for packing simulations, in which the effect of several parameters on the resulting average packing density was investigated. The restitution coefficient was found out to have the most significant effect. The results can be utilised in further work to obtain a pebble bed with a specific packing density. The packing structures of selected pebble beds were also analysed in detail and local variations in the packing density were observed, which should be taken into account especially in the reactor core thermal-hydraulic analyses. Two open source DEM codes were used to produce stochastic pebble bed configurations to add realism and improve the accuracy of criticality calculations performed with the Monte Carlo reactor physics code Serpent. Russian ASTRA criticality experiments were calculated. Pebble beds corresponding to the experimental specifications within measurement uncertainties were produced in DEM simulations and successfully exported into the subsequent reactor physics analysis. With the developed approach, two typical issues in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations of pebble bed geometries were avoided. A novel method was developed and implemented as a MATLAB code to calculate porosities in the cells of a CFD calculation mesh constructed over a pebble bed obtained from DEM simulations. The code was further developed to distribute power and temperature data accurately between discrete based reactor physics and continuum based thermal-hydraulics models to enable coupled reactor core calculations. The developed method was also found useful for analysing sphere packings in general. CFD calculations were performed to investigate the pressure losses and heat transfer in three dimensional air cooled smooth and rib roughened rod geometries, housed inside a hexagonal flow channel representing a sub-channel of a single fuel rod of a GFR. The CFD geometry represented the test section of the L-STAR experimental facility at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the calculation results were compared to the corresponding experimental results. Knowledge was gained of the adequacy of various turbulence models and of the modelling requirements and issues related to the specific application. The obtained pressure loss results were in a relatively good agreement with the experimental data. Heat transfer in the smooth rod geometry was somewhat under predicted, which can partly be explained by unaccounted heat losses and uncertainties. In the rib roughened geometry heat transfer was severely under predicted by the used realisable k − epsilon turbulence model. An additional calculation with a v2 − f turbulence model showed significant improvement in the heat transfer results, which is most likely due to the better performance of the model in separated flow problems. Further investigations are suggested before using CFD to make conclusions of the heat transfer performance of rib roughened GFR fuel rod geometries. It is suggested that the viewpoints of numerical modelling are included in the planning of experiments to ease the challenging model construction and simulations and to avoid introducing additional sources of uncertainties. To facilitate the use of advanced calculation approaches, multi-physical aspects in experiments should also be considered and documented in a reasonable detail.

Novel methods for the encapsulation of meglumine antimoniate into liposomes

The antimonial drug, meglumine antimoniate, was successfully encapsulated in dehydration-rehydration vesicles and in freeze-dried empty liposomes (FDELs). High encapsulation efficiencies (from 28 to 58%) and low weight ratios of lipids to encapsulated antimony (from 1:0.15 to 1:0.3) were achieved. These formulations, contrary to those obtained by conventional methods, can be stored as intermediate lyophilized forms and reconstituted just before use. The efficacy of FDEL-encapsulated meglumine antimoniate was evaluated in hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania chagasi. A significant reduction of liver parasite burdens was observed in animals treated with this preparation, when compared to control animals treated with empty liposomes. In contrast, free meglumine antimoniate was found to be inefficient when administered at a comparable dose of antimony. This novel liposome-based meglumine antimoniate formulation appears to be promising as a pharmaceutical product for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis.

The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

Radio-frequency-based measurement methods for bearing current analysis in induction motors

The most common reason for a low-voltage induction motor breakdown is a bearing failure. Along with the increasing popularity of modern frequency converters, bearing failures have become the most important motor fault type. Conditions in which bearing currents are likely to occur are generated as a side effect of fast du/dt switching transients. Once present, different types of bearing currents can accelerate the mechanical wear of bearings by causing deformation of metal parts in the bearing and degradation of the lubricating oil properties.The bearing current phenomena are well known, and several bearing current measurement and mitigation methods have been proposed. Nevertheless, in order to develop more feasible methods to measure and mitigate bearing currents, better knowledge of the phenomena is required. When mechanical wear is caused by bearing currents, the resulting aging impact has to be monitored and dealt with. Moreover, because of the stepwise aging mechanism, periodically executed condition monitoring measurements have been found ineffective. Thus, there is a need for feasible bearing current measurement methods that can be applied in parallel with the normal operation of series production drive systems. In order to reach the objectives of feasibility and applicability, nonintrusive measurement methods are preferred. In this doctoral dissertation, the characteristics and conditions of bearings that are related to the occurrence of different kinds of bearing currents are studied. Further, the study introduces some nonintrusive radio-frequency-signal-based approaches to detect and measure parameters that are associated with the accelerated bearing wear caused by bearing currents.

Study of Control Methods of a High-Frequency Cycloconverter for Domestic Induction Heating Appliances

A high-frequency cyclonverter acts as a direct ac-to-ac power converter circuit that does not require a diode bidge rectifier. Bridgeless topology makes it possible to remove forward voltage drop losses that are present in a diode bridge. In addition, the on-state losses can be reduced to 1.5 times the on-state resistance of switches in half-bridge operation of the cycloconverter. A high-frequency cycloconverter is reviewed and the charging effect of the dc-capacitors in ``back-to-back'' or synchronous mode operation operation is analyzed. In addition, a control method is introduced for regulating dc-voltage of the ac-side capacitors in synchronous operation mode. The controller regulates the dc-capacitors and prevents switches from reaching overvoltage level. This can be accomplished by variating phase-shift between the upper and the lower gate signals. By adding phase-shift between the gate signal pairs, the charge stored in the energy storage capacitors can be discharged through the resonant load and substantially, the output resonant current amplitude can be improved. The above goals are analyzed and illustrated with simulation. Theory is supported with practical measurements where the proposed control method is implemented in an FPGA device and tested with a high-frequency cycloconverter using super-junction power MOSFETs as switching devices.

Advanced analysis and design methods for preparative chromatographic separation processes

Preparative liquid chromatography is one of the most selective separation techniques in the fine chemical, pharmaceutical, and food industries. Several process concepts have been developed and applied for improving the performance of classical batch chromatography. The most powerful approaches include various single-column recycling schemes, counter-current and cross-current multi-column setups, and hybrid processes where chromatography is coupled with other unit operations such as crystallization, chemical reactor, and/or solvent removal unit. To fully utilize the potential of stand-alone and integrated chromatographic processes, efficient methods for selecting the best process alternative as well as optimal operating conditions are needed. In this thesis, a unified method is developed for analysis and design of the following singlecolumn fixed bed processes and corresponding cross-current schemes: (1) batch chromatography, (2) batch chromatography with an integrated solvent removal unit, (3) mixed-recycle steady state recycling chromatography (SSR), and (4) mixed-recycle steady state recycling chromatography with solvent removal from fresh feed, recycle fraction, or column feed (SSR–SR). The method is based on the equilibrium theory of chromatography with an assumption of negligible mass transfer resistance and axial dispersion. The design criteria are given in general, dimensionless form that is formally analogous to that applied widely in the so called triangle theory of counter-current multi-column chromatography. Analytical design equations are derived for binary systems that follow competitive Langmuir adsorption isotherm model. For this purpose, the existing analytic solution of the ideal model of chromatography for binary Langmuir mixtures is completed by deriving missing explicit equations for the height and location of the pure first component shock in the case of a small feed pulse. It is thus shown that the entire chromatographic cycle at the column outlet can be expressed in closed-form. The developed design method allows predicting the feasible range of operating parameters that lead to desired product purities. It can be applied for the calculation of first estimates of optimal operating conditions, the analysis of process robustness, and the early-stage evaluation of different process alternatives. The design method is utilized to analyse the possibility to enhance the performance of conventional SSR chromatography by integrating it with a solvent removal unit. It is shown that the amount of fresh feed processed during a chromatographic cycle and thus the productivity of SSR process can be improved by removing solvent. The maximum solvent removal capacity depends on the location of the solvent removal unit and the physical solvent removal constraints, such as solubility, viscosity, and/or osmotic pressure limits. Usually, the most flexible option is to remove solvent from the column feed. Applicability of the equilibrium design for real, non-ideal separation problems is evaluated by means of numerical simulations. Due to assumption of infinite column efficiency, the developed design method is most applicable for high performance systems where thermodynamic effects are predominant, while significant deviations are observed under highly non-ideal conditions. The findings based on the equilibrium theory are applied to develop a shortcut approach for the design of chromatographic separation processes under strongly non-ideal conditions with significant dispersive effects. The method is based on a simple procedure applied to a single conventional chromatogram. Applicability of the approach for the design of batch and counter-current simulated moving bed processes is evaluated with case studies. It is shown that the shortcut approach works the better the higher the column efficiency and the lower the purity constraints are.

Comparison of the quantitative competitive and semiquantitative RT-PCR methods for the determination of interferon-gamma mRNA levels in AIDS-free HIV-infected individuals

IFN-gamma mRNA expression was evaluated in nonstimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of HIV-infected and seronegative individuals using quantitative competitive and semiquantitative RT-PCR and the sensitivity of these methods was compared. A significant correlation was found between quantitative competitive and semiquantitative RT-PCR in samples of both HIV-seronegative (P = 0.004) and HIV-infected individuals (P = 0.0004). PBMC from HIV-infected individuals presented a remarkable increase of IFN-gamma mRNA expression, as determined by both types of RT-PCR methods. Semiquantitative RT-PCR even without an internal standard is also acceptable for measuring cytokine mRNA expression, but less reliable if small amounts are quantified. Moreover, we found that increased IFN-gammamRNA expression is independent of CD4+ cell count in AIDS-free HIV-infected patients.