Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Quality coding by neural populations in the early olfactory pathway: analysis using information theory

In this article, we analyze the ability of the early olfactory system to detect and discriminate different odors by means of information theory measurements applied to olfactory bulb activity images. We have studied the role that the diversity and number of receptor neuron types play in encoding chemical information. Our results show that the olfactory receptors of the biological system are low correlated and present good coverage of the input space. The coding capacity of ensembles of olfactory receptors with the same receptive range is maximized when the receptors cover half of the odor input space - a configuration that corresponds to receptors that are not particularly selective. However, the ensemble's performance slightly increases when mixing uncorrelated receptors of different receptive ranges. Our results confirm that the low correlation between sensors could be more significant than the sensor selectivity for general purpose chemo-sensory systems, whether these are biological or biomimetic.

BPSK to ASK signal conversion using injection-locked oscillators-Part I: theory

This paper presents a new method and circuit for the conversion of binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) signals into amplitude shift keying signals. The basic principles of the conversion method are the superharmonic injection and locking of oscillator circuits, and interference phenomena. The first one is used to synchronize the oscillators, while the second is used to generate an amplitude interference pattern that reproduces the original phase modulation. When combined with an envelope detector, the proposed converter circuit allows the coherent demodulation of BPSK signals without need of any explicit carrier recovery system. The time response of the converter circuit to phase changes of the input signal, as well as the conversion limits, are discussed in detail.

Semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+in+ semiconductor structures: relevance of Pauli and long range Coulomb interactions

We work out a semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+-i-n+ semiconductor structures aiming at studying two fundamental physical correlations coming from Pauli exclusion principle and long-range Coulomb interaction. The theory provides a unifying scheme which, in addition to the current-voltage characteristics, describes the suppression of shot noise due to Pauli and Coulomb correlations in the whole range of system parameters and applied bias. The whole scenario is summarized by a phase diagram in the plane of two dimensionless variables related to the sample length and contact chemical potential. Here different regions of physical interest can be identified where only Coulomb or only Pauli correlations are active, or where both are present with different relevance. The predictions of the theory are proven to be fully corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Influence of average size and interface passivation on the spectral emission of Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2

The correlation between the structural (average size and density) and optoelectronic properties [band gap and photoluminescence (PL)] of Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2 is among the essential factors in understanding their emission mechanism. This correlation has been difficult to establish in the past due to the lack of reliable methods for measuring the size distribution of nanocrystals from electron microscopy, mainly because of the insufficient contrast between Si and SiO2. With this aim, we have recently developed a successful method for imaging Si nanocrystals in SiO2 matrices. This is done by using high-resolution electron microscopy in conjunction with conventional electron microscopy in dark field conditions. Then, by varying the time of annealing in a large time scale we have been able to track the nucleation, pure growth, and ripening stages of the nanocrystal population. The nucleation and pure growth stages are almost completed after a few minutes of annealing time at 1100°C in N2 and afterward the ensemble undergoes an asymptotic ripening process. In contrast, the PL intensity steadily increases and reaches saturation after 3-4 h of annealing at 1100°C. Forming gas postannealing considerably enhances the PL intensity but only for samples annealed previously in less time than that needed for PL saturation. The effects of forming gas are reversible and do not modify the spectral shape of the PL emission. The PL intensity shows at all times an inverse correlation with the amount of Pb paramagnetic centers at the Si-SiO2 nanocrystal-matrix interfaces, which have been measured by electron spin resonance. Consequently, the Pb centers or other centers associated with them are interfacial nonradiative channels for recombination and the emission yield largely depends on the interface passivation. We have correlated as well the average size of the nanocrystals with their optical band gap and PL emission energy. The band gap and emission energy shift to the blue as the nanocrystal size shrinks, in agreement with models based on quantum confinement. As a main result, we have found that the Stokes shift is independent of the average size of nanocrystals and has a constant value of 0.26±0.03 eV, which is almost twice the energy of the Si¿O vibration. This finding suggests that among the possible channels for radiative recombination, the dominant one for Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2 is a fundamental transition spatially located at the Si¿SiO2 interface with the assistance of a local Si-O vibration.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soil spectral library and its use in soil classification

Soil science has sought to develop better techniques for the classification of soils, one of which is the use of remote sensing applications. The use of ground sensors to obtain soil spectral data has enabled the characterization of these data and the advancement of techniques for the quantification of soil attributes. In order to do this, the creation of a soil spectral library is necessary. A spectral library should be representative of the variability of the soils in a region. The objective of this study was to create a spectral library of distinct soils from several agricultural regions of Brazil. Spectral data were collected (using a Fieldspec sensor, 350-2,500 nm) for the horizons of 223 soil profiles from the regions of Matão, Paraguaçu Paulista, Andradina, Ipaussu, Mirandópolis, Piracicaba, São Carlos, Araraquara, Guararapes, Valparaíso (SP); Naviraí, Maracajú, Rio Brilhante, Três Lagoas (MS); Goianésia (GO); and Uberaba and Lagoa da Prata (MG). A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the data was then performed and a graphic representation of the spectral curve was created for each profile. The reflectance intensity of the curves was principally influenced by the levels of Fe2O3, clay, organic matter and the presence of opaque minerals. There was no change in the spectral curves in the horizons of the Latossolos, Nitossolos, and Neossolos Quartzarênicos. Argissolos had superficial horizon curves with the greatest intensity of reflection above 2,200 nm. Cambissolos and Neossolos Litólicos had curves with greater reflectance intensity in poorly developed horizons. Gleisols showed a convex curve in the region of 350-400 nm. The PCA was able to separate different data collection areas according to the region of source material. Principal component one (PC1) was correlated with the intensity of reflectance samples and PC2 with the slope between the visible and infrared samples. The use of the Spectral Library as an indicator of possible soil classes proved to be an important tool in profile classification.

Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition

A sequential weakly efficient two-auction game with entry costs, interdependence between objects, two potential bidders and IPV assumption is presented here in order to give some theoretical predictions on the effects of geographical scale economies on local service privatization performance. It is shown that the first object seller takes profit of this interdependence. The interdependence externality rises effective competition for the first object, expressed as the probability of having more than one final bidder. Besides, if there is more than one final bidder in the first auction, seller extracts the entire bidder¿s expected future surplus differential between having won the first auction and having lost. Consequences for second object seller are less clear, reflecting the contradictory nature of the two main effects of object interdependence. On the one hand, first auction winner becomes ¿stronger¿, so that expected payments rise in a competitive environment. On the other hand, first auction loser becomes relatively ¿weaker¿, hence (probably) reducing effective competition for the second object. Additionally, some contributions to static auction theory with entry cost and asymmetric bidders are presented in the appendix

Spectral analysis of the luteinizing hormone in the blood samples

Generally, medicine books are concentrated almost exclusively in explaining methodology that analyzes fixed measures, measures done in a certain moment, nevertheless the evolution of the measurement and correct interpretation of the missed values are very important and sometimes can give the key information of the results obtained. Thus, the analysis of the temporary series and spectral analysis or analysis of the time series in the dominion of frequencies can be regarded as an appropriate tool for this kind of studies.In this work the frequency of the pulsating secretion of luteinizing hormone LH (thatregulates the fertile life of women) were analyzed in order to determine the existence of the significant frequencies obtained by analysis of Fourier. Detection of the frequencies, with which the pulsating secretion of the LH takes place, is a quite difficult question due topresence of the random errors in measures and samplings, i.e. that pulsating secretions of small amplitude are not detected and disregarded. In physiology it is accepted that cyclical patterns in the secretion of the LH exist and in the results of this research confirm this pattern and determine its frequency presented in the corresponded periodograms to each of studied cycle. The obtained results can be used as key pattern for future sampling frequencies in order to ¿catch¿ the significant picks of the luteinizing hormone and reflect on time forproductivity treatment of women.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.