936 resultados para Species distribution modelling


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The following aspects of Prosopis spp. are reviewed: name; taxonomy; hybrids; description; history in Australia; distribution; habitat; growth and development; reproduction; population dynamics; importance; costs in Australia; legislation; and weedmanagement.

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Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

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Senna obtusifolia (sicklepod) is an invasive weed of northern Australia, where it significantly impacts agricultural productivity and alters natural ecosystem structure and function. Although currently restricted to northern regions, the potential for S. obtusifolia to spread south is not known. Using the eco-climatic model CLIMEX, this study simulated the potential geographic distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia under two scenarios. Model parameters for both scenarios were derived from the distribution of S. obtusifolia throughout North and Central America. The first scenario used these base model parameters to predict the distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia, whilst the second model predicted the distribution of a cold susceptible S. obtusifolia ecotype that is reported to occur in the USA. Both models predicted the potential for an extensive S. obtusifolia distribution, with the first model indicating suitable climatic conditions occurring predominantly in coastal regions from the Northern Territory, to far north Queensland and into northern Victoria. The cold susceptible ecotype displayed a comparatively reduced distribution in the southern parts of Australia, where inappropriate temperatures, a lack of thermal accumulation and cold stress restrict the invasion south to the coastal regions of central New South Wales. The extent of the predicted distribution of both ecotypes of S. obtusifolia reinforces the need for strategic management at a national scale.

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Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.

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An aging electricity distribution system and reduced availability of naturally durable tropical hardwoods in Australia will combine in the next decade to produce a major shortage of poles. One approach to mitigating this shortage is to utilize lower durability species and improve the penetration of preservatives into the refractory heartwood by introducing additional pretreatment processes. A potential method for improving preservative penetration in the critical ground-line zone is through-boring. This process, in which holes are drilled through the pole perpendicular to the grain in the ground-line zone, is widely used in the western United States for treatment of Douglas-fir and may be Suitable for many Australian wood species. The potential for improving heartwood penetration in eucalypts with alkaline-copper-quaternary (ACQ) compound was assessed on heartwood specimens from four species (Eucalyptus cloeziana F.Muell., E. grandis W.Hill ex Maiden, E. obliqua L'Her. and E. pellita F.Muell.) and Lophostemon confertus (R.Br.) Peter G.Wilson & J.T.Wateril). Longitudinal ACQ penetration was extremely shallow in L. confertus and only slightly better in E. cloeziana. Longitudinal penetration was good in both E. obliqua and E. pellita, although there was some variation in treatment results with length of pressure period. The results suggest that through-boring might be a reasonable approach for achieving heartwood penetration in some Eucalyptus species, although further studies are required to assess additional treatment schedules and to determine the effects of the process oil flexural properties of the poles.

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Large fruited spotted gum eucalypt Corymbia henryi occurs sympatrically with small fruited spotted gum Corymbia citriodora subspecies variegata over a large portion of its range on the east coast of Australia. The two taxa are interfertile, have overlapping flowering times and share a common set of insect and vertebrate pollinators. Previous genetic analysis of both taxa from two geographically remote sites suggested that the two were morphotypes rather than genetically distinct species. In this study we further explore this hypothesis of genic species by expanding sampling broadly through their sympatric locations and examine local-scale spatial genetic structure in stands that differ in species and age composition. Delineation of populations at five microsatellite loci, using an individual-based approach and Bayesian modelling, as well as clustering of individuals based on allele frequencies showed the two species to be molecularly homogeneous. Genetic structure aligned largely with geographic areas of origin, and followed an isolation-by-distance model, where proximal populations were generally less differentiated than more distant ones. At the stand level, spotted gums also generally showed little structure consistent with the high levels of gene flow inferred across the species range. Disturbances in the uniformity of structuring were detected, however, and attributed to localised events giving rise to even aged stands, probably due to regeneration from a few individuals following fire.