Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that as the jet weakens or splits it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.

Local and average structure in zinc cyanide: towards an understanding of the atomistic origin of negative thermal expansion

Neutron diffraction at 11.4 and 295 K and solid-state 67Zn NMR are used to determine both the local and average structures in the disordered, negative thermal expansion (NTE) material, Zn(CN)2. Solid-state NMR not only confirms that there is head-to-tail disorder of the C≡N groups present in the solid, but yields information about the relative abundances of the different Zn(CN)4-n(NC)n tetrahedral species, which do not follow a simple binomial distribution. The Zn(CN)4 and Zn(NC)4 species occur with much lower probabilities than are predicted by binomial theory, supporting the conclusion that they are of higher energy than the other local arrangements. The lowest energy arrangement is Zn(CN)2(NC)2. The use of total neutron diffraction at 11.4 K, with analysis of both the Bragg diffraction and the derived total correlation function, yields the first experimental determination of the individual Zn−N and Zn−C bond lengths as 1.969(2) and 2.030(2) Å, respectively. The very small difference in bond lengths, of ~0.06 Å, means that it is impossible to obtain these bond lengths using Bragg diffraction in isolation. Total neutron diffraction also provides information on both the average and local atomic displacements responsible for NTE in Zn(CN)2. The principal motions giving rise to NTE are shown to be those in which the carbon and nitrogen atoms within individual Zn−C≡N−Zn linkages are displaced to the same side of the Zn···Zn axis. Displacements of the carbon and nitrogen atoms to opposite sides of the Zn···Zn axis, suggested previously in X-ray studies as being responsible for NTE behavior, in fact make negligible contribution at temperatures up to 295 K.

[Global climate] global aerosols [in state of the climate in 2008]

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland. The year 2008 was also characterized by heavy precipitation in a number of regions of northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. In contrast, a prolonged and intense drought occurred during most of 2008 in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, causing severe impacts to agriculture and affecting many communities. The year began with a strong La Niña episode that ended in June. Eastward surface current anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in early 2008 played a major role in adjusting the basin from strong La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by July–August, followed by a return to La Niña conditions late in December. The La Niña conditions resulted in far-reaching anomalies such as a cooling in the central tropical Pacific, Arctic Ocean, and the regions extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the west coast of North America; changes in the sea surface salinity and heat content anomalies in the tropics; and total column water vapor, cloud cover, tropospheric temperature, and precipitation patterns typical of a La Niña. Anomalously salty ocean surface salinity values in climatologically drier locations and anomalously fresh values in rainier locations observed in recent years generally persisted in 2008, suggesting an increase in the hydrological cycle. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the 14th busiest on record and the only season ever recorded with major hurricanes each month from July through November. Conversely, activity in the northwest Pacific was considerably below normal during 2008. While activity in the north Indian Ocean was only slightly above average, the season was punctuated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 145,000 people; in addition, it was the seventh-strongest cyclone ever in the basin and the most devastating to hit Asia since 1991. Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing by more than expected based on with CO2 the 1979 to 2007 trend. In the oceans, the global mean uptake for 2007 is estimated to be 1.67 Pg-C, about CO2 0.07 Pg-C lower than the long-term average, making it the third-largest anomaly determined with this method since 1983, with the largest uptake of carbon over the past decade coming from the eastern Indian Ocean. Global phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations were slightly elevated in 2008 relative to 2007, but regional changes were substantial (ranging to about 50%) and followed long-term patterns of net decreases in chlorophyll with increasing sea surface temperature. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to fall globally to about 4% below the peak levels of the 2000–02 period. Total column ozone concentrations remain well below pre-1980, levels and the 2008 ozone hole was unusually large (sixth worst on record) and persistent, with low ozone values extending into the late December period. In fact the polar vortex in 2008 persisted longer than for any previous year since 1979. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the year was well below average due in large part to the record-low ice extent in March and despite the record-maximum coverage in January and the shortest snow cover duration on record (which started in 1966) in the North American Arctic. Limited preliminary data imply that in 2008 glaciers continued to lose mass, and full data for 2007 show it was the 17th consecutive year of loss. The northern region of Greenland and adjacent areas of Arctic Canada experienced a particularly intense melt season, even though there was an abnormally cold winter across Greenland's southern half. One of the most dramatic signals of the general warming trend was the continued significant reduction in the extent of the summer sea-ice cover and, importantly, the decrease in the amount of relatively older, thicker ice. The extent of the 2008 summer sea-ice cover was the second-lowest value of the satellite record (which started in 1979) and 36% below the 1979–2000 average. Significant losses in the mass of ice sheets and the area of ice shelves continued, with several fjords on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island being ice free for the first time in 3,000–5,500 years. In Antarctica, the positive phase of the SAM led to record-high total sea ice extent for much of early 2008 through enhanced equatorward Ekman transport. With colder continental temperatures at this time, the 2007–08 austral summer snowmelt season was dramatically weakened, making it the second shortest melt season since 1978 (when the record began). There was strong warming and increased precipitation along the Antarctic Peninsula and west Antarctica in 2008, and also pockets of warming along coastal east Antarctica, in concert with continued declines in sea-ice concentration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas. One significant event indicative of this warming was the disintegration and retreat of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the southwest peninsula area of Antarctica.

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas

Key conclusions of the first international urban land surface model comparison project

he first international urban land surface model comparison was designed to identify three aspects of the urban surface-atmosphere interactions: (1) the dominant physical processes, (2) the level of complexity required to model these, and 3) the parameter requirements for such a model. Offline simulations from 32 land surface schemes, with varying complexity, contributed to the comparison. Model results were analysed within a framework of physical classifications and over four stages. The results show that the following are important urban processes; (i) multiple reflections of shortwave radiation within street canyons, (ii) reduction in the amount of visible sky from within the canyon, which impacts on the net long-wave radiation, iii) the contrast in surface temperatures between building roofs and street canyons, and (iv) evaporation from vegetation. Models that use an appropriate bulk albedo based on multiple solar reflections, represent building roof surfaces separately from street canyons and include a representation of vegetation demonstrate more skill, but require parameter information on the albedo, height of the buildings relative to the width of the streets (height to width ratio), the fraction of building roofs compared to street canyons from a plan view (plan area fraction) and the fraction of the surface that is vegetated. These results, whilst based on a single site and less than 18 months of data, have implications for the future design of urban land surface models, the data that need to be measured in urban observational campaigns, and what needs to be included in initiatives for regional and global parameter databases.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Performance of the Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire Used in the Brazilian Center of the Prospective Study Natural History of Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men: The HIM Study

The Natural History of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection in Men: The HIM Study is a prospective multi-center cohort study that, among other factors, analyzes participants` diet. A parallel cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of the quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) used in the Brazilian center from the HIM Study. For this, a convenience subsample of 98 men aged 18 to 70 years from the HIM Study in Brazil answered three 54-item QFFQ and three 24-hour recall interviews, with 6-month intervals between them (data collection January to September 2007). A Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the difference between instruments was dependent on the magnitude of the intake for energy and most nutrients included in the validity analysis, with the exception of carbohydrates, fiber, polyunsaturated fat, vitamin C, and vitamin E. The correlation between the QFFQ and the 24-hour recall for the deattenuated and energy-adjusted data ranged from 0.05 (total fat) to 0.57 (calcium). For the energy and nutrients consumption included in the validity analysis, 33.5% of participants on average were correctly classified into quartiles, and the average value of 0.26 for weighted kappa shows a reasonable agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficients for all nutrients were greater than 0.40 in the reproducibility analysis. The QFFQ demonstrated good reproducibility and acceptable validity. The results support the use of this instrument in the HIM Study. J Am Diet Assoc. 2011;111:1045-1051.

The sustainability revolution : A societal paradigm shift - ethos, innovation, government transformation

The Sustainability revolution: A societal paradigm shift – ethos, innovation, governance transformation This paper identifies several key mechanisms that underlie major paradigm shifts. After identifying four such mechanisms, the article focuses on one type of transformation which has a prominent place in the sustainability revolution that the article argues is now taking place. The transformation is piecemeal, incremental, diffuse – in earlier writings referred to as ”organic”. This is a more encompassing notion than grassroots, since the innovation and transformation processes may be launched and developed at multiple levels through diverse mechanisms of discovery and development. Major features of the sustainability revolution are identified and comparisons made to the industrial revolution.

Geographic and Educational Factors and Risk of the First Peritonitis Episode in Brazilian Peritoneal Dialysis Study (BRAZPD) Patients

Background and objectives Peritonitis remains as the most frequent cause of peritoneal dialysis (PD) failure, impairing patient's outcome. No large multicenter study has addressed socioeconomic, educational, and geographic issues as peritonitis risk factors in countries with a large geographic area and diverse socioeconomic conditions, such as Brazil.Design, setting, participants, & measurements Incident PD patients recruited from 114 dialysis centers and reporting to BRAZPD, a multicenter observational study, from December 2004 through October 2007 were included. Clinical, dialysis-related, demographic, and socioeconomic variables were analyzed. Patients were followed up until their first peritonitis. Cox proportional model was used to determine independent factors associated with peritonitis.Results In a cumulative follow-up of 2032 patients during 22.026 patient-months, 474 (23.3%) presented a first peritonitis episode. In contrast to earlier findings, PD modality, previous hemodialysis, diabetes, gender, age, and family income were not risk predictors. Factors independently associated with increased hazard risk were lower educational level, non-white race, region where patients live, shorter distance from dialysis center, and lower number of patients per center.Conclusions Educational level and geographic factors as well as race and center size are associated with risk for the first peritonitis, independent of socioeconomic status, PD modality, and comorbidities. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 1944-1951, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.11431210

Evaluation of the Shore A Hardness of Silicone for Facial Prosthesis as to the Effect of Storage Period and Chemical Disinfection

The failure of facial prostheses is caused by limitations in the properties of existing materials, especially flexibility and durability. Therefore, this study evaluated the Shore A hardness of silicone used for fabrication of facial prostheses, Silastic MDX4-4210, according to the influence of storage period, daily disinfection, and 2 types of pigmentation. Thirty specimens were fabricated and divided in 3 groups: colorless, pigmented with makeup, and pigmented with iron oxide. Analysis of results was assessed on a Shore A hardness meter immediately, 6 months, and 1 year after fabrication of specimens, following the guidelines of the American Society for Testing and Materials. The hardness values were statistically analyzed by the Tukey test. The silicone exhibited an increase in hardness with time. However, the hardness was stable from 6 months to 1 year. It was concluded that the silicone is within the values of Shore A hardness reported in the literature, regardless of the storage period, pigmentation, and chemical disinfection.