Uncertainty analysis in the Model Web

This thesis provides a set of tools for managing uncertainty in Web-based models and workflows.To support the use of these tools, this thesis firstly provides a framework for exposing models through Web services. An introduction to uncertainty management, Web service interfaces,and workflow standards and technologies is given, with a particular focus on the geospatial domain.An existing specification for exposing geospatial models and processes, theWeb Processing Service (WPS), is critically reviewed. A processing service framework is presented as a solutionto usability issues with the WPS standard. The framework implements support for Simple ObjectAccess Protocol (SOAP), Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), allowing models to be consumed by a variety of tools and software. Strategies for communicating with models from Web service interfaces are discussed, demonstrating the difficultly of exposing existing models on the Web. This thesis then reviews existing mechanisms for uncertainty management, with an emphasis on emulator methods for building efficient statistical surrogate models. A tool is developed to solve accessibility issues with such methods, by providing a Web-based user interface and backend to ease the process of building and integrating emulators. These tools, plus the processing service framework, are applied to a real case study as part of the UncertWeb project. The usability of the framework is proved with the implementation of aWeb-based workflow for predicting future crop yields in the UK, also demonstrating the abilities of the tools for emulator building and integration. Future directions for the development of the tools are discussed.

Form follows function:model-driven engineering for clinical trials

We argue that, for certain constrained domains, elaborate model transformation technologies-implemented from scratch in general-purpose programming languages-are unnecessary for model-driven engineering; instead, lightweight configuration of commercial off-the-shelf productivity tools suffices. In particular, in the CancerGrid project, we have been developing model-driven techniques for the generation of software tools to support clinical trials. A domain metamodel captures the community's best practice in trial design. A scientist authors a trial protocol, modelling their trial by instantiating the metamodel; customized software artifacts to support trial execution are generated automatically from the scientist's model. The metamodel is expressed as an XML Schema, in such a way that it can be instantiated by completing a form to generate a conformant XML document. The same process works at a second level for trial execution: among the artifacts generated from the protocol are models of the data to be collected, and the clinician conducting the trial instantiates such models in reporting observations-again by completing a form to create a conformant XML document, representing the data gathered during that observation. Simple standard form management tools are all that is needed. Our approach is applicable to a wide variety of information-modelling domains: not just clinical trials, but also electronic public sector computing, customer relationship management, document workflow, and so on. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

A simple Bayesian modelling approach to event extraction from Twitter

With the proliferation of social media sites, social streams have proven to contain the most up-to-date information on current events. Therefore, it is crucial to extract events from the social streams such as tweets. However, it is not straightforward to adapt the existing event extraction systems since texts in social media are fragmented and noisy. In this paper we propose a simple and yet effective Bayesian model, called Latent Event Model (LEM), to extract structured representation of events from social media. LEM is fully unsupervised and does not require annotated data for training. We evaluate LEM on a Twitter corpus. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves 83% in F-measure, and outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline by over 7%.© 2014 Association for Computational Linguistics.

Simple design of nonuniform fiber Bragg grating with sharp reflection

In this paper we consider the possibility of using intermediate solutions, in which ideal apodisation profile for a dispersion-free, sharp-reflection profile fibre Bragg grating approximated in different degrees. The ideal apodisation profile for a flat dispersion, 50 GHz bandwidth grating was obtained using the layer-peeling algorithm. To verify the modelled results a version of the 5-section grating has been manufactured with excellent agreement between the model and the experimental results. The performance penalty due to multiple reflections from the FBGs in different situations was studied. The results showed that in the approximated gratings some post-compensation must be included to account for the local deviations from zero dispersion. © 2003 IEEE.

Mathematical Model and Simulation of a Pneumatic Apparatus for In-Drilling Alignment of an Inertial Navigation Unit during Horizontal Well Drilling

Conventional methods in horizontal drilling processes incorporate magnetic surveying techniques for determining the position and orientation of the bottom-hole assembly (BHA). Such means result in an increased weight of the drilling assembly, higher cost due to the use of non-magnetic collars necessary for the shielding of the magnetometers, and significant errors in the position of the drilling bit. A fiber-optic gyroscope (FOG) based inertial navigation system (INS) has been proposed as an alternative to magnetometer -based downhole surveying. The utilizing of a tactical-grade FOG based surveying system in the harsh downhole environment has been shown to be theoretically feasible, yielding a significant BHA position error reduction (less than 100m over a 2-h experiment). To limit the growing errors of the INS, an in-drilling alignment (IDA) method for the INS has been proposed. This article aims at describing a simple, pneumatics-based design of the IDA apparatus and its implementation downhole. A mathematical model of the setup is developed and tested with Bloodshed Dev-C++. The simulations demonstrate a simple, low cost and feasible IDA apparatus.