Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Significance of serum early pregnancy factor concentrations during pregnancy and embryonic development in Sminthopsis macroura (Spencer) (Marsupialia : Dasyuridae)

Marsupial pregnancy differs from that in eutherians in duration, placentation and hormonal profile so much so that maternal recognition of pregnancy may not occur in polyovular marsupials. However, a comparison of gravid and non-gravid uteri reveals differences indicative of histological and physiological adaptations to pregnancy. In the present study, the hypothesis that embryo-maternal signalling occurs in polyovular marsupials was tested by examining serum from non-pregnant and pregnant Sminthopsis macroura for the presence of early pregnancy factor (EPF), a serum protein secreted by the ovary in response to the presence of a newly fertilized egg in the oviduct. EPF is detectable in the serum of pregnant, but not in non-pregnant, females in all eutherians studied to date. In the present study, EPF was detected in S. macroura serum by the rosette inhibition test during the first 9 days of the 10.7 day gestation period in this marsupial. However, EPF was not detected on day 10, just before parturition, or in non-pregnant or preovulatory animals. Immunohistochemical analysis of ovaries from gravid and non-gravid animals demonstrates that EPF is found in the capillaries, interstitial spaces and secretory cells of the corpus luteum. It is concluded that the spatiotemporal pattern of EPF activity described strongly indicates that maternal recognition of pregnancy in marsupials is mediated, at least in part, by EPF. Because the endocrinological milieu is the same in pregnant and non-pregnant marsupials, the possibility of using marsupials as an experimental system for studying EPF function unconfounded by hormonal effects is presented.

Effect of restricted feed intake on early reproductive development in Large White gilts

Forty-five Large White gilts were used to study the effect of energy intake from 28 to 176 d of age on body composition and reproductive development. From 28 to 60 d, the gilts were fed ad libitum a 16.6 MJ DE/kg, 24% crude protein and 1.3% total lysine diet. From 61 d of age three dietary treatments were used; 1) ad libitum access to feed (15.6 MJ DE/kg, 21% crude protein and 1.07% total lysine) (H), 2) feed offered at 75% (M) of the previous days intake of H, and 3) feed offered at 60% (L) of the previous days intake of H. ADG from 61 to 176 d of age was (p <0.05) affected by treatment. Although live weight at 176 d of age did not differ (p >0.1) the H gilts had higher (p <0.08) carcass weights than the M or L gilts. Back fat depths were similar (p >0.1) for all treatments at 115 d of age, however by 176 d of age M and H gilts were fatter (p <0.1) than L gilts. The mean lipid deposition (LD) from 115 to 176 d of age for L gilts (78.9 g/d) was less (p <0.05) than for M gilts (143.6 g/d) and H gilts (135.6 g/d). There were no differences between treatments for protein deposition (PD) over the same period. More (p <0.05) H gilts (n=8) attained puberty (first observed estrus) than either M gilts or L gilts (n=4 for both). Follicle numbers were similar (p >0.1) across treatments. For gilts that attained puberty, H gilts had fewer (p <0.05) follicles (13.5) than M gilts (19.7) and L gilts (21.3). For gilts with follicular development, H gilts had the heaviest (458.7 g) reproductive tract weight (RTW). However, for those that attained puberty, L gilts had the heaviest RTW. RTW were lowest for those with no follicular development. Energy restriction had a negative impact on puberty attainment, i.e. it took longer to reach puberty. However, for gilts that attained puberty, the number of follicles was greater for those on lower feed intakes. It would appear that rate of fat deposition, but not necessarily the total amount of fat, plays an important role in puberty attainment.

SOX18 and the transcriptional regulation of blood vessel development

SOX18 is a transcription factor that is transiently expressed in nascent endothelial cells during embryonic development and adult neovascularization. This protein belongs to the SOX family of transcription factors, ih,which are proving to be some of the key regulators of cell-type specification in the vertebrate embryo. Natural mutations in the Sox18 gene have been shown to result to cardiovascular dysfunction, in some cases leading to death. Available evidence thus implicates Sox18 as an important regulator of vascular development, most likely playing a key role in endothelial cell specification. However; the genetic knockout of Sox18 in mice has produced a confounding result that complicates our understanding of the molecular mode of action of the SOX18 protein. We speculate that Sox18 inky act in a redundant fashion with closely related genes such as Sox7 and/or Sox17. (C) 2001, Elsevier Science Inc.

Gonad development: Signals for sex

The formation of testes or ovaries in the mammalian embryo is critical in determining sexual identity and the ability to reproduce. Recent studies have begun to illuminate the cellular signalling events required for development of functional testes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulation of male sexual development by Sry and Sox9

Sry, a gene from the Y chromosome, is known to initiate testis formation and subsequent male differentiation in mammals. A related gene, Sox9, also plays a critical role in testis determination, possibly in all vertebrates. A number of models have been presented regarding the molecular modes of action of these two genes. However, details regarding their regulation, regulatory target genes, and interacting protein factors and co-factors have not been established with any certainty. In this review, we examine new evidence and re-examine existing evidence bearing on these issues, in an effort to build up an integrative model of the network of gene activity centred around Sry and Sox9. J. Exp. Zool. 290:463-474, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Vascular endothelial growth factor-B-deficient mice show impaired development of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension

To test the hypothesis that Vegf-B contributes to the pulmonary vascular remodelling, and the associated pulmonary hypertension, induced by exposure of mice to chronic hypoxia. Methods: Right ventricular systolic pressure, the ratio of right ventricle/[left ventricle+septum] (RV/[LV+S]) and the thickness of the media (relative to vessel diameter) of intralobar pulmonary arteries (o.d. 50-150 and 151-420 mum) were determined in Vegfb knockout mice (Vegfb(-/-); n=17) and corresponding wild-type mice (Vegfb(+/+); n=17) exposed to chronic hypoxia (10% oxygen) or housed in room air (normoxia) for 4 weeks. Results: In Vegfb(+/+) mice hypoxia caused (i) pulmonary hypertension (a 70% increase in right ventricular systolic pressure compared with normoxic Vegfb(+/+) mice; P

Alterations in gene expression and activity during squamous cell carcinoma development

This study focuses on characterizing the genetic and biological alterations associated with squamous cell carcinoma development. Normal human epidermal keratinocytes (HEKs), cells isolated from a preneoplastic lesion (IEC-1), and two neoplastic cell lines, SCC-25 and COLD-16, were grown as raft cultures, and their gene expression profiles were screened using cDNA arrays. Our data indicated that the expression levels of at least 37 genes were significantly (P less than or equal to 0.05; 1.9% of genes screened) altered in neoplastic cells compared with normal cells. Of these genes, 10 genes were up-regulated and 27 genes were down-regulated in the neoplastic cells. In addition, 51% of the genes altered in the neoplastic cells were already altered in the preneoplastic IEC-1 cells. Immunohistochemical staining of patient tumors was used to verify the cDNA array analysis. Our analysis indicated that alterations in genes associated with extracellular matrix production and apoptosis are disrupted in preneoplastic cells, whereas later stages of neoplasia are associated with alterations in gene expression for genes involved in DNA repair or epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor/mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MAPKK)/MAPK/activator protein-1 (AP-1) signaling. Subsequent functional analysis of the alterations in expression of the EGF receptor/MAPKK/MAPK/AP-1 genes suggested they did not contribute to the neoplastic phenotype.

Emerging pathways in colorectal-cancer development

The past decade has seen the emergence of new pathways in the development of colorectal cancer. There is now clear evidence that subsets of these tumours do not show chromosomal instability and do not follow the suppressor pathway. Instead, about 15% of colorectal cancers are characterised by microsatellite instability (MSI). This feature arises through defective DNA mismatch repair, which is related either to a germline mutation (as in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal carcinoma) or to failure to express a mismatch-repair gene. CpG-island methylation has been linked to sporadic cancers with a high frequency of MSI. This type of methylation leads to loss of gene expression when it occurs in the promoter region of a gene. Tumours may have high or low type C (cancer-related) CpG-island methylation. When methylation affects hMLH1 (mismatch repair gene), the resultant cancer has high MSI.

Ecotourism for the survival of sea turtles and other wildlife

This paper discusses generally why humans should bother to conserve sea turtles. In doing so, it considers both economic and non-economic reasons and outlines threats to the existence of sea turtles and ways in which tourism may either contribute to the conservation or decline of their populations. Turtle-based ecotourism at Mon Repos in southern Queensland is described. As a result of a survey conducted by the authors, it is shown that turtle-based ecotourism at Mon Repos has positive social (indirect) consequences for the conservation of sea turtles. Furthermore, it is argued that ecotourism operations at Mon Repos have positive direct impacts on the sustainability of populations of sea turtles. However, using a simple model, it is emphasised that this impact is limited because turtles are migratory. A model is also developed to capture the possible relationship between turtle populations and the sustainability of ecotourism dependent on turtle populations, and is extended to other wildlife species. Significant interdependence exists between the sustainability of these two variables. The theory is related to Ciriacy-Wantrup's social safe minimum conservation standard for species' survival.

Developmental expression of a class IV POU gene in the gastropod Haliotis asinina supports a conserved role in sensory cell development in bilaterians

POU-IV genes regulate neuronal development in a number of deuterostomes (chordates) and ecdysozoans (arthropods and nematodes). Currently their function and expression in the third bilaterian clade, the Lophotrochozoa, comprising molluscs, annelids and. their affiliates, is unclear. Herein we characterise the developmental expression of HasPOU-IV in the gastropod mollusc, Haliotis asinina. The POU-IV gene is transiently expressed in I I distinct larval territories during the first 3 days of development. HasPOU-IV is first expressed in sets of ventral epidermal cells in the newly hatched trochophore larvae. As larval morphogenesis proceeds, we observe HasPOU-IV transcripts in cells that putatively form a range of sensory systems including chemo- and mechanosensory cells in the foot, cephalic tentacles, the ctenidia. the geosensory statocyst and the eyes. By comparing HasPOU-IV expression with POU-IV genes in other bilaterians we infer that this class of POU-domain genes had an ancestral role in regulating sensory cell development.

Ecological regulation of development: Induction of marine invertebrate metamorphosis

In the marine environment a wide range of invertebrates have a pelagobenthic lifecycle that includes planktonic larval and benthic adult phases. Transition between these morphologically and ecologically distinct phases typically occurs when the developmentally competent larva comes into contact with a species-specific environmental cue. This cue acts as a morphogenetic signal that induces the completion of the postlarval/juvenile/adult developmental program at metamorphosis. The development of competence often occurs hours to days after the larva is morphologically mature. In the non-feeding - lecithotrophic - larvae of the ascidian Herdmania curvata and the gastropod mollusc Haliotis asinina, gene expression patterns in pre-competent and competent stages are markedly different, reflecting the different developmental states of these larval stages. For example, the expression of Hemps, an EGF-like signalling peptide required for the induction of Herdmania metamorphosis, increases in competent larvae. Induction of settlement and metamorphosis results in further changes in developmental gene expression, which apparently is necessary for the complete transformation of the larval body plan into the adult form.