A factor model of seasonality in stock returns

Published as an article in: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2004, vol. 44, issue 2, pages 224-236.

Characterization of the benthos, marine debris and bottom fish at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Executive Summary: Baseline characterization of resources is an essential part of marine protected area (MPA) management and is critical to inform adaptive management. Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) currently lacks adequate characterization of several key resources as identified in the 2006 Final Management Plan. The objectives of this characterization were to fulfill this need by characterizing the bottom fish, benthic features, marine debris, and the relationships among them for the different bottom types within the sanctuary: ledges, sparse live bottom, rippled sand, and flat sand. Particular attention was given to characterizing the different ledge types, their fish communities, and the marine debris associated with them given the importance of this bottom type to the sanctuary. The characterization has been divided into four sections. Section 1 provides a brief overview of the project, its relevance to sanctuary needs, methods of site selection, and general field procedures. Section 2 provides the survey methods, results, discussion, and recommendations for monitoring specific to the benthic characterization. Section 3 describes the characterization of marine debris. Section 4 is specific to the characterization of bottom fish. Field surveys were conducted during August 2004, May 2005, and August 2005. A total of 179 surveys were completed over ledge bottom (n=92), sparse live bottom (n=51), flat sand (n=20), and rippled sand (n=16). There were three components to each field survey: fish counting, benthic assessment, and quantification of marine debris. All components occurred within a 25 x 4 m belt transect. Two divers performed the transect at each survey site. One diver was responsible for identification of fish species, size, and abundance using a visual survey. The second diver was responsible for characterization of benthic features using five randomly placed 1 m2 quadrats, measuring ledge height and other benthic structures, and quantifying marine debris within the entire transect. GRNMS is composed of four main bottom types: flat sand, rippled sand, sparsely colonized live bottom, and densely colonized live bottom (ledges). Independent evaluation of the thematic accuracy of the GRNMS benthic map produced by Kendall et al. (2005) revealed high overall accuracy (93%). Most discrepancies between map and diver classification occurred during August 2004 and likely can be attributed to several factors, including actual map or diver errors, and changes in the bottom type due to physical forces. The four bottom types have distinct physical and biological characteristics. Flat and rippled sand bottom types were composed primarily of sand substrate and secondarily shell rubble. Flat sand and rippled sand bottom types were characterized by low percent cover (0-2%) of benthic organisms at all sites. Although the sand bottom types were largely devoid of epifauna, numerous burrows indicate the presence of infaunal organisms. Sparse live bottom and ledges were colonized by macroalgae and numerous invertebrates, including coral, gorgonians, sponges, and “other” benthic species (such as tunicates, anemones, and bryozoans). Ledges and sparse live bottom were similar in terms of diversity (H’) given the level of classification used here. However, percent cover of benthic species, with the exception of gorgonians, was significantly greater on ledge than on sparse live bottom. Percent biotic cover at sparse live bottom ranged from 0.7-26.3%, but was greater than 10% at only 7 out of 51 sites. Colonization on sparse live bottom is likely inhibited by shifting sands, as most sites were covered in a layer of sediment up to several centimeters thick. On ledge bottom type, percent cover ranged from 0.42-100%, with the highest percent cover at ledges in the central and south-central region of GRNMS. Biotic cover on ledges is influenced by local ledge characteristics. Cluster analysis of ledge dimensions (total height, undercut height, undercut width) resulted in three main categories of ledges, which were classified as short, medium, and tall. Median total percent cover was 97.6%, 75.1%, and 17.7% on tall, medium, and short ledges, respectively. Total percent cover and cover of macroalgae, sponges, and other organisms was significantly lower on short ledges compared to medium and tall ledges, but did not vary significantly between medium and tall ledges. Like sparse live bottom, short ledges may be susceptible to burial by sand, however the results indicate that ledge height may only be important to a certain threshold. There are likely other factors not considered here that also influence spatial distribution and community structure (e.g., small scale complexity, ocean currents, differential settlement patterns, and biological interactions). GRNMS is a popular site for recreational fishing and boating, and there has been increased concern about the accumulation of debris in the sanctuary and potential effects on sanctuary resources. Understanding the types, abundance, and distribution of debris is essential to improving debris removal and education efforts. Approximately two-thirds of all observed debris items found during the field surveys were fishing gear, and about half of the fishing related debris was monofilament fishing line. Other fishing related debris included leaders and spear gun parts, and non-gear debris included cans, bottles, and rope. The spatial distribution of debris was concentrated in the center of the sanctuary and was most frequently associated with ledges rather than at other bottom types. Several factors may contribute to this observation. Ledges are often targeted by fishermen due to the association of recreationally important fish species with this bottom type. In addition, ledges are structurally complex and are often densely colonized by biota, providing numerous places for debris to become stuck or entangled. Analysis of observed boat locations indicated that higher boat activity, which is an indication of fishing, occurs in the center of the sanctuary. On ledges, the presence and abundance of debris was significantly related to observed boat density and physiographic features including ledge height, ledge area, and percent cover. While it is likely that most fishing related debris originates from boats inside the sanctuary, preliminary investigation of ocean current data indicate that currents may influence the distribution and local retention of more mobile items. Fish communities at GRNMS are closely linked to benthic habitats. A list of species encountered, probability of occurrence, abundance, and biomass by habitat is provided. Species richness, diversity, composition, abundance, and biomass of fish all showed striking differences depending on bottom type with ledges showing the highest values of nearly all metrics. Species membership was distinctly separated by bottom type as well, although very short, sparsely colonized ledges often had a similar community composition to that of sparse live bottom. Analysis of fish communities at ledges alone indicated that species richness and total abundance of fish were positively related to total percent cover of sessile invertebrates and ledge height. Either ledge attribute was sufficient to result in high abundance or species richness of fish. Fish diversity (H`) was negatively correlated with undercut height due to schools of fish species that utilize ledge undercuts such as Pareques species. Concurrent analysis of ledge types and fish communities indicated that there are five distinct combinations of ledge type and species assemblage. These include, 1) short ledges with little or no undercut that lacked many of the undercut associated species except Urophycis earlii ; 2) tall, heavily colonized, deeply undercut ledges typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Mycteroperca sp., and Pareques sp.; 3) tall, heavily colonized but less undercut with high occurrence of Lagodon rhomboides and Balistes capriscus; 4) short, heavily colonized ledges typically with Centropristis ocyurus, Halichoeres caudalis, and Stenotomus sp.; and 5) tall, heavily colonized, less undercut typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Caranx crysos and Seriola sp.. Higher levels of boating activity and presumably fishing pressure did not appear to influence species composition or abundance at the community level although individual species appeared affected. These results indicate that merely knowing the basic characteristics of a ledge such as total height, undercut width, and percent cover of sessile invertebrates would allow good prediction of not only species richness and abundance of fish but also which particular fish species assemblages are likely to occur there. Comparisons with prior studies indicate some major changes in the fish community at GRNMS over the last two decades although the causes of the changes are unknown. Species of interest to recreational fishermen including Centropristis striata, Mycteroperca microlepis, and Mycteroperca phenax were examined in relation to bottom features, areas of assumed high versus low fishing pressure, and spatial dispersion. Both Mycteroperca species were found more frequently when undercut height of ledges was taller. They often were found together in small mixed species groups at ledges in the north central and southwest central regions of the sanctuary. Both had lower mode size and proportion of fish above the fishery size limit in heavily fished areas of the sanctuary (i.e. high boat density) despite the presence of better habitat in that region. Black sea bass, C. striata, occurred at 98% of the ledges surveyed and appeared to be evenly distributed throughout the sanctuary. Abundance was best explained by a positive relationship with percent cover of sessile biota but was also negatively related to presence of either Mycteroperca species. This may be due to predation by the Mycteroperca species or avoidance of sites where they are present by C. striata. Suggestions for monitoring bottom features, marine debris, and bottom fish at GRNMS are provided at the end of each chapter. The present assessment has established quantitative baseline characteristics of many of the key resources and use issues at GRNMS. The methods can be used as a model for future assessments to track the trajectory of GRNMS resources. Belt transects are ideally suited to providing efficient and quantitative assessment of bottom features, debris, and fish at GRNMS. The limited visibility, sensitivity of sessile biota, and linear nature of ledge habitats greatly diminish the utility of other sampling techniques. Ledges should receive the bulk of future characterization effort due to their importance to the sanctuary and high variability in physical structure, benthic composition, and fish assemblages. (PDF contains 107 pages.)

Environment and resources of seamounts in the North Pacific: Proceedings of a workshop, March 21-23, 1984, Shimizu, Japan

The trawl fishery for pelagic annorhead, Pseuaopentaceros wheeleri(fonnerly referred to as Pentaceros richardsoni), and alfonsin, Beryx splendens, over the central North Pacific seamounts has a relatively short history. Before 1967, fishery scientists were generally unaware of the resources on seamounts; however, the discovery of commercial concentrations of pelagic armorhead on seamounts in the southern Emperor Seamounts by a Russian commercial trawler in November 1967 led to almost immediate exploitation of the species by the Soviets. Unconfinned reports indicated that the schools of pelagic annorhead on the seamounts averaged 30 m thick and catches averaged from 3 to 50 metric tons on 10-20 min hauls (Sakiura 1972). Japanese trawlers entered the fishery in 1969. To assist in the development of this tishery, Japanese research vessels conducted extensive surveys in 1972 on the distribution and potential for development ofthe pelagic armorhead and alfonsin resources. The results of their surveys to the central North Pacific and mid-Pacific seamounts showed that many had summits that were too deep for trawling. Those found suitable were concentrated in the southern Emperor-northern Hawaiian Ridge. (PDF file contains 113 pages.)

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

A genealogical map of the concept of habit

The notion of information processing has dominated the study of the mind for over six decades. However, before the advent of cognitivism, one of the most prominent theoretical ideas was that of Habit. This is a concept with a rich and complex history, which is again starting to awaken interest, following recent embodied, enactive critiques of computationalist frameworks. We offer here a very brief history of the concept of habit in the form of a genealogical network-map. This serves to provide an overview of the richness of this notion and as a guide for further re-appraisal. We identify 77 thinkers and their influences, and group them into seven schools of thought. Two major trends can be distinguished. One is the associationist trend, starting with the work of Locke and Hume, developed by Hartley, Bain, and Mill to be later absorbed into behaviorism through pioneering animal psychologists (Morgan and Thorndike). This tradition conceived of habits atomistically and as automatisms (a conception later debunked by cognitivism). Another historical trend we have called organicism inherits the legacy of Aristotle and develops along German idealism, French spiritualism, pragmatism, and phenomenology. It feeds into the work of continental psychologists in the early 20th century, influencing important figures such as Merleau-Ponty, Piaget, and Gibson. But it has not yet been taken up by mainstream cognitive neuroscience and psychology. Habits, in this tradition, are seen as ecological, self-organizing structures that relate to a web of predispositions and plastic dependencies both in the agent and in the environment. In addition, they are not conceptualized in opposition to rational, volitional processes, but as transversing a continuum from reflective to embodied intentionality. These are properties that make habit a particularly attractive idea for embodied, enactive perspectives, which can now re-evaluate it in light of dynamical systems theory and complexity research.

Age composition and distribution of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in offshore waters of the north central Gulf of Mexico: an evaluation of a stock under a federal harvest moratorium

Because of a lack of fishery-dependent data, assessment of the recovery of fish stocks that undergo the most aggressive form of management, namely harvest moratoriums, remains a challenge. Large schools of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) were common along the northern Gulf of Mexico until the late 1980s when increased fishing effort quickly depleted the stock. After 24 years of harvest moratorium on red drum in federal waters, the stock is in need of reassessment; however, fisherydependent data are not available in federal waters and fishery-independent data are limited. We document the distribution, age composition, growth, and condition of red drum in coastal waters of the north central Gulf of Mexico, using data collected from a nearshore, randomized, bottom longline survey. Age composition of the fishery-independent catch indicates low mortality of fish age 6 and above and confirms the effectiveness of the federal fishing moratorium. Bottom longline surveys may be a cost-effective method for developing fishery-independent indices for red drum provided additional effort can be added to nearshore waters (<20 m depth). As with most stocks under harvest bans, effective monitoring of the recovery of red drum will require the development of fishery-independent indices. With limited economic incentive to evaluate non-exploited stocks, the most cost-effective approach to developing such monitoring is expansion of existing fishery independent surveys. We examine this possibility for red drum in the Gulf of Mexico and recommend the bottom longline survey conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service expand effort in nearshore areas to allow for the development of long-term abundance indices for red drum.

The Humanitarian Responsibilities of Sovereignty

Wheeler, Nicholas. 'The Humanitarian Responsibilities of Sovereignty', In: Humanitarian Intervention and International Relations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003), pp.29-51 RAE2008

Ben Marais (1909-1999): The influences on and heritage of a South African Prophet during two periods of transformation

University of Pretoria / Dissertation / Department of Church History and Church Policy / Advised by Prof J W Hofmeyr

An investigation of the utilisation of health impact assessments (HIAs) in Irish public policy making

It is the aim of this thesis to investigate Health Impact Assessment (HIA) use in public policy formulation in Northern Ireland and in the Republic of Ireland. The influences affecting the use of HIAs will be examined in this study. Four case studies, where HIA has been conducted, will be used for research analysis. This includes HIAs conducted on traffic and transport in Dublin, Traveller accommodation in Donegal, a draft air quality action plan in Belfast and on a social housing regeneration project in Derry. HIA aims to identify possible intended and unintended consequences that a project, policy or programme will have on the affected population’s health. Although it has been acknowledged as a worthwhile tool to inform decision-makers, the extent to which it is used in policy in Ireland is subject to scrutiny. A theoretical framework, drawing from institutionalist, impact assessment and knowledge utilisation theories and schools of literature, underpin this study. The investigation involves an examination of the unit of analysis which consists of the HIA steering groups. These are made up of local authority decision makers, statutory health practitioners and community representatives. The overarching structure and underlying values which are hypothesized as present in each HIA case are investigated in this research. Chapters 2 and 3 outline the main literature in the area which includes theories from the public health and health promotion paradigm, the policy sciences and impact assessment techniques. Chapter 4 describes the methodology in this research which is a multiple case study design. This is followed by an analysis of the cases and then concludes with practical recommendations for HIA in Ireland and theoretical conclusions of the research.

Differential and numerical models of hysteretic systems with stochastic and deterministic inputs

Many deterministic models with hysteresis have been developed in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. These models lack any stochastic element which can often have a strong effect in these areas. In this work stochastically driven closed loop systems with hysteresis type memory are studied. This type of system is presented as a possible stochastic counterpart to deterministic models in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. Some price dynamics models are presented as a motivation for the development of this type of model. Numerical schemes for solving this class of stochastic differential equation are developed in order to examine the prototype models presented. As a means of further testing the developed numerical schemes, numerical examination is made of the behaviour near equilibrium of coupled ordinary differential equations where the time derivative of the Preisach operator is included in one of the equations. A model of two phenotype bacteria is also presented. This model is examined to explore memory effects and related hysteresis effects in the area of biology. The memory effects found in this model are similar to that found in the non-ideal relay. This non-ideal relay type behaviour is used to model a colony of bacteria with multiple switching thresholds. This model contains a Preisach type memory with a variable Preisach weight function. Shown numerically for this multi-threshold model is a pattern formation for the distribution of the phenotypes among the available thresholds.