A simple fluid cell for the study of aqueous solutions using THz time-domain spectroscopy

We describe a fluid cell for the measurement of aqueous solutions of biomolecules adapted particularly for the requirements of THz time-domain spectroscopy. The design is simple, requires small-volume samples, avoids cross-contamination and is inexpensive.

Simple adaptive momentum: new algorithm for training multilayer perceptrons

The speed of convergence while training is an important consideration in the use of neural nets. The authors outline a new training algorithm which reduces both the number of iterations and training time required for convergence of multilayer perceptrons, compared to standard back-propagation and conjugate gradient descent algorithms.

Neural network control of a simple mobile robot

In recent years researchers in the Department of Cybernetics have been developing simple mobile robots capable of exploring their environment on the basis of the information obtained from a few simple sensors. These robots are used as the test bed for exploring various behaviours of single and multiple organisms: the work is inspired by considerations of natural systems. In this paper we concentrate on that part of the work which involves neural networks and related techniques. These neural networks are used both to process the sensor information and to develop the strategy used to control the robot. Here the robots, their sensors, and the neural networks used and all described. 1.

A novel scheme for human-friendly and time-delays robust neuropredictive teleoperation

A novel Neuropredictive Teleoperation (NPT) Scheme is presented. The design results from two key ideas: the exploitation of the measured or estimated neural input to the human arm or its electromyograph (EMG) as the system input and the employment of a predictor of the arm movement, based on this neural signal and an arm model, to compensate for time delays in the system. Although a multitude of such models, as well as measuring devices for the neural signals and the EMG, have been proposed, current telemanipulator research has only been considering highly simplified arm models. In the present design, the bilateral constraint that the master and slave are simultaneously compliant to each other's state (equal positions and forces) is abandoned, thus obtaining a simple to analyzesuccession of only locally controlled modules, and a robustness to time delays of up to 500 ms. The proposed designs were inspired by well established physiological evidence that the brain, rather than controlling the movement on-line, programs the arm with an action plan of a complete movement, which is then executed largely in open loop, regulated only by local reflex loops. As a model of the human arm the well-established Stark model is employed, whose mathematical representation is modified to make it suitable for an engineering application. The proposed scheme is however valid for any arm model. BIBO-stability and passivity results for a variety of local control laws are reported. Simulation results and comparisons with traditional designs also highlight the advantages of the proposed design.

Assessment of projected changes in upland environments using simple climatic indices

Climate controls upland habitats, soils and their associated ecosystem services; therefore, understanding possible changes in upland climatic conditions can provide a rapid assessment of climatic vulnerability over the next century. We used 3 different climatic indices that were optimised to fit the upland area classified by the EU as a Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) 1961–1990. Upland areas within the SDA covered all altitudinal ranges, whereas the maximum altitude of lowland areas outside of the SDA was ca. 300 m. In general, the climatic index based on the ratio between annual accumulated temperature (as a measure of growing season length) and annual precipitation predicted 96% of the SDA mapped area, which was slightly better than those indices based on annual or seasonal water deficit. Overall, all climatic indices showed that upland environments were exposed to some degree of change by 2071–2100 under UKCIP02 climate projections for high and low emissions scenarios. The projected area declined by 13 to 51% across 3 indices for the low emissions scenario and by 24 to 84% for the high emissions scenario. Mean altitude of the upland area increased by +11 to +86 m for the low scenario and +21 to +178 m for the high scenario. Low altitude areas in eastern and southern Great Britain were most vulnerable to change. These projected climatic changes are likely to affect upland habitat composition, long-term soil carbon storage and wider ecosystem service provision, although it is not yet possible to determine the rate at which this might occur.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

A simple relationship between volcanic sulfate aerosol optical depth and surface temperature change simulated in an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.

In this study we quantify the relationship between the aerosol optical depth increase from a volcanic eruption and the severity of the subsequent surface temperature decrease. This investigation is made by simulating 10 different sizes of eruption in a global circulation model (GCM) by changing stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth at each time step. The sizes of the simulated eruptions range from Pinatubo‐sized up to the magnitude of supervolcanic eruptions around 100 times the size of Pinatubo. From these simulations we find that there is a smooth monotonic relationship between the global mean maximum aerosol optical depth anomaly and the global mean temperature anomaly and we derive a simple mathematical expression which fits this relationship well. We also construct similar relationships between global mean aerosol optical depth and the temperature anomaly at every individual model grid box to produce global maps of best‐fit coefficients and fit residuals. These maps are used with caution to find the eruption size at which a local temperature anomaly is clearly distinct from the local natural variability and to approximate the temperature anomalies which the model may simulate following a Tambora‐sized eruption. To our knowledge, this is the first study which quantifies the relationship between aerosol optical depth and resulting temperature anomalies in a simple way, using the wealth of data that is available from GCM simulations.

PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors in general practice are an important source of potentially preventable morbidity and mortality. Building on previous descriptive, qualitative and pilot work, we sought to investigate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and likely generalisability of a complex pharm acist-led IT-based intervention aiming to improve prescribing safety in general practice. Objectives: We sought to: • Test the hypothesis that a pharmacist-led IT-based complex intervention using educational outreach and practical support is more effective than simple feedback in reducing the proportion of patients at risk from errors in prescribing and medicines management in general practice. • Conduct an economic evaluation of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS). • Analyse data recorded by pharmacists, summarising the proportions of patients judged to be at clinical risk, the actions recommended by pharmacists, and actions completed in the practices. • Explore the views and experiences of healthcare professionals and NHS managers concerning the intervention; investigate potential explanations for the observed effects, and inform decisions on the future roll-out of the pharmacist-led intervention • Examine secular trends in the outcome measures of interest allowing for informal comparison between trial practices and practices that did not participate in the trial contributing to the QRESEARCH database. Methods Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of 72 English general practices with embedded economic analysis and longitudinal descriptive and qualitative analysis. Informal comparison of the trial findings with a national descriptive study investigating secular trends undertaken using data from practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. The main outcomes of interest were prescribing errors and medication monitoring errors at six- and 12-months following the intervention. Results: Participants in the pharmacist intervention arm practices were significantly less likely to have been prescribed a non-selective NSAID without a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) if they had a history of peptic ulcer (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.38, 0.89), to have been prescribed a beta-blocker if they had asthma (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58, 0.91) or (in those aged 75 years and older) to have been prescribed an ACE inhibitor or diuretic without a measurement of urea and electrolytes in the last 15 months (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34, 0.78). The economic analysis suggests that the PINCER pharmacist intervention has 95% probability of being cost effective if the decision-maker’s ceiling willingness to pay reaches £75 (6 months) or £85 (12 months) per error avoided. The intervention addressed an issue that was important to professionals and their teams and was delivered in a way that was acceptable to practices with minimum disruption of normal work processes. Comparison of the trial findings with changes seen in QRESEARCH practices indicated that any reductions achieved in the simple feedback arm were likely, in the main, to have been related to secular trends rather than the intervention. Conclusions Compared with simple feedback, the pharmacist-led intervention resulted in reductions in proportions of patients at risk of prescribing and monitoring errors for the primary outcome measures and the composite secondary outcome measures at six-months and (with the exception of the NSAID/peptic ulcer outcome measure) 12-months post-intervention. The intervention is acceptable to pharmacists and practices, and is likely to be seen as costeffective by decision makers.

The synthesis, structure, and reactions of some simple unsaturated σ-hydrocarbylplatinum(II) complexes

Trimethyltin compounds Me3SnR(R = CHCH2, CFCF2, or CCPh) are selective reagents for the synthesis of unsaturated hydrocarbyl derivatives such as trans-PtCl(R)(PPhEt2)2, by R/Cl exchange or oxidative addition (e.g., to Pt(PPh3)3); single crystal X-ray analyses of two such compounds (R = CHCH2 or CCPh) show that the trans-influence of R has only a low sensitivity to hybridisation at carbon, with sp3 > sp ⩾ sp2.

A simple column model to explore anticipated problems in variational assimilation of satellite observations

We investigate a simplified form of variational data assimilation in a fully nonlinear framework with the aim of extracting dynamical development information from a sequence of observations over time. Information on the vertical wind profile, w(z ), and profiles of temperature, T (z , t), and total water content, qt (z , t), as functions of height, z , and time, t, are converted to brightness temperatures at a single horizontal location by defining a two-dimensional (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of T and qt are updated using a vertical advection scheme. A basic cloud scheme is used to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, this information is converted into a brightness temperature, using a simple radiative transfer scheme. It is shown that our model exhibits realistic behaviour with regard to the prediction of cloud, but the effects of nonlinearity become non-negligible in the variational data assimilation algorithm. A careful analysis of the application of the data assimilation scheme to this nonlinear problem is presented, the salient difficulties are highlighted, and suggestions for further developments are discussed.

A simple device for multiplex ELISA made from melt-extruded plastic microcapillary film

We present a simple device for multiplex quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbant assays (ELISA) made from a novel melt-extruded microcapillary film (MCF) containing a parallel array of 200µm capillaries along its length. To make ELISA devices different protein antigens or antibodies were immobilised inside individual microcapillaries within long reels of MCF extruded from fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP). Short pieces of coated film were cut and interfaced with a pipette, allowing sequential uptake of samples and detection solutions into all capillaries from a reagent well. As well as being simple to produce, these FEP MCF devices have excellent light transmittance allowing direct optical interrogation of the capillaries for simple signal quantification. Proof of concept experiments demonstrate both quantitative and multiplex assays in FEP MCF devices using a standard direct ELISA procedure and read using a flatbed scanner. This new multiplex immunoassay platform should find applications ranging from lab detection to point-of-care and field diagnostics.