Changing times, changing places: urban development and the politics of space - time

Much of the writing on urban regeneration in the UK has been focused on the types of urban spaces that have been created in city centres. Less has been written about the issue of when the benefits of regeneration could and should be delivered to a range of different interests, and the different time frames that exist in any development area. Different perceptions of time have been reflected in dominant development philosophies in the UK and elsewhere. The trickle-down agendas of the 1980s, for example, were criticised for their focus on the short-term time frames and needs of developers, often at the expense of those of local communities. The recent emergence of sustainability discourses, however, ostensibly changes the time focus of development and promotes a broader concern with new imagined futures. This paper draws on the example of development in Salford Quays, in the North West of England, to argue that more attention needs to be given to the politics of space-time in urban development processes. It begins by discussing the importance and relevance of this approach before turning to the case study and the ways in which the local politics of space-time has influenced development agendas and outcomes. The paper argues that such an approach harbours the potential for more progressive, far-reaching, and sustainable development agendas to be developed and implemented.

Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate. The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 degrees C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10 degrees of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 degrees C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time. The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as "greenhouse" and "icehouse", although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Simulated global-mean sea level changes over the last half-millennium

Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.

Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.

Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere ( up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered ( constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm(-2) and 0.45 Wm(-2) due to ozone change in the troposphere and - 0.123 Wm(-2) and + 0.066 Wm(-2) due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm(-2), while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm(-2). Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors

An investigation is made of the impact of a full linearized physical (moist) parameterization package on extratropical singular vectors (SVs) using the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). Comparison is made for one particular period with a dry physical package including only vertical diffusion and surface drag. The crucial extra ingredient in the full package is found to be the large-scale latent heat release. Consistent with basic theory, its inclusion results in a shift to smaller horizontal scales and enhanced growth for the SVs. Whereas, for the dry SVs, T42 resolution is sufficient, the moist SVs require T63 to resolve their structure and growth. A 24-h optimization time appears to be appropriate for the moist SVs because of the larger growth of moist SVs compared with dry SVs. Like dry SVs, moist SVs tend to occur in regions of high baroclinicity, but their location is also influenced by the availability of moisture. The most rapidly growing SVs appear to enhance or reduce large-scale rain in regions ahead of major cold fronts. The enhancement occurs in and ahead of a cyclonic perturbation and the reduction in and ahead of an anticyclonic perturbation. Most of the moist SVs for this situation are slightly modified versions of the dry SVs. However, some occur in new locations and have particularly confined structures. The most rapidly growing SV is shown to exhibit quite linear behavior in the nonlinear model as it grows from 0.5 to 12 hPa in 1 day. For 5 times this amplitude the structure is similar but the growth is about half as the perturbation damps a potential vorticity (PV) trough or produces a cutoff, depending on its sign.

Ambient solar wind's effect on ICME transit times

Most empirical and numerical models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) propagation use the initial CME velocity as their primary, if not only, observational input. These models generally predict a wide spread of 1 AU transit times for ICMEs with the same initial velocity. We use a 3D coupled MHD model of the corona and heliosphere to determine the ambient solar wind's effect on the propagation of ICMEs from 30 solar radii to 1 AU. We quantitatively characterize this deceleration by the velocity of the upstream ambient solar wind. The effects of varying solar wind parameters on the ICME transit time are quantified and can explain the observed spread in transit times for ICMEs of the same initial velocity. We develop an adjustment formula that can be used in conjunction with other models to reduce the spread in predicted transit times of Earth-directed ICMEs.

The elliptic sine-Gordon equation in a half plane

We consider boundary value problems for the elliptic sine-Gordon equation posed in the half plane y > 0. This problem was considered in Gutshabash and Lipovskii (1994 J. Math. Sci. 68 197–201) using the classical inverse scattering transform approach. Given the limitations of this approach, the results obtained rely on a nonlinear constraint on the spectral data derived heuristically by analogy with the linearized case. We revisit the analysis of such problems using a recent generalization of the inverse scattering transform known as the Fokas method, and show that the nonlinear constraint of Gutshabash and Lipovskii (1994 J. Math. Sci. 68 197–201) is a consequence of the so-called global relation. We also show that this relation implies a stronger constraint on the spectral data, and in particular that no choice of boundary conditions can be associated with a decaying (possibly mod 2π) solution analogous to the pure soliton solutions of the usual, time-dependent sine-Gordon equation. We also briefly indicate how, in contrast to the evolutionary case, the elliptic sine-Gordon equation posed in the half plane does not admit linearisable boundary conditions.

Spectral functions of half-filled one-dimensional Hubbard rings with varying boundary conditions

We study the effect of varying the boundary condition on: the spectral function of a finite one-dimensional Hubbard chain, which we compute using direct (Lanczos) diagonalization of the Hamiltonian. By direct comparison with the two-body response functions and with the exact solution of the Bethe ansatz equations, we can identify both spinon and holon features in the spectra. At half-filling the spectra have the well-known structure of a low-energy holon band and its shadow-which spans the whole Brillouin zone-and a spinon band present for momenta less than the Fermi momentum. Features related to the twisted boundary condition are cusps in the spinon band. We show that the spectral building principle, adapted to account for both the finite system size and the twisted boundary condition, describes the spectra well in terms of single spinon and holon excitations. We argue that these finite-size effects are a signature of spin-charge separation and that their study should help establish the existence and nature of spin-charge separation in finite-size systems.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

The Klein-Gordon equation on the half line: a Riemann-Hilbert approach

We solve an initial-boundary problem for the Klein-Gordon equation on the half line using the Riemann-Hilbert approach to solving linear boundary value problems advocated by Fokas. The approach we present can be also used to solve more complicated boundary value problems for this equation, such as problems posed on time-dependent domains. Furthermore, it can be extended to treat integrable nonlinearisations of the Klein-Gordon equation. In this respect, we briefly discuss how our results could motivate a novel treatment of the sine-Gordon equation.