Value creation for Amorim Turismo through the optimization of its strategy, resources and processes

With the final purpose of adding value to Amorim Turismo, several papers were analysed, key stakeholders were heard, competitors were studied and so was the market. After this evaluation, it was concluded that there is a chance to consolidate the quality of the service offered and it was with this goal in mind that several recommendations were given. However, such recommendations suffer a cost restriction, which was not neglected, and should be considered into further complementary research activity. Risk assessment was also conducted so that future issues can be anticipated and dealt with preventively.

Evidence that risk adjustment is unnecessary in estimates of the User cost of money

Investors value the special attributes of monetary assets (e.g., exchangeability, liquidity, and safety) and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate -- The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the returns on illiquid risky assets and those of safer liquid assets -- A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the differential risk of the assets in question -- We investigate the impact that time non-separable preferences has on the estimation of the risk-adjusted user cost of money -- Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model with money in the utility function and find that the risk adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible -- Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the user cost of money in constructing monetary aggregate indexes

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+ T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

Doutoramento em Gestão

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

Reputational risk of banks : a study on the effects of regulatory sanctions for major european banks

Mestrado em Finanças

Timing and economic value of mergers and acquisitions

Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Business Administration

Prevalencia y factores asociados al trastorno disfórico premestrual en estudiantes del Colegio Nacional Manuela Garaicoa de Calderón, Cuenca 2015

ANTECEDENTES: El trastorno disfórico premenstrual (TDPM) es una afección en la cual la mujer que lo padece puede volverse lo suficientemente incapacitante para desempeñarse en su vida normal. Se basa en una combinación de síntomas somáticos y psíquicos que se presentan durante la fase lútea de la menstruación, afectando entre un 3 a un 8 % de las mujeres jóvenes iniciando en la adolescencia. (3)(18) OBJETIVO GENERAL: Determinar la Prevalencia y Factores asociados al Trastorno Disfórico Premenstrual en estudiantes del Colegio Manuela Garaicoa de Calderón, Cuenca 2015. METODOLOGÍA: Se realizó un estudio de tipo transversal. Área de estudio: Colegio Manuela Garaicoa de Calderón. Universo: 1703 estudiantes. Muestra: 440 estudiantes que se obtuvieron mediante el programa Epi Info 7, con un intervalo de confianza de 95%, con una frecuencia esperada más 3%, límite de confianza 5%, efectos del diseño 1%. La selección de la muestra se obtuvo del programa Epidat 3.1 mediante muestreo simple aleatorio. Para obtener los datos se aplicó una encuesta basada en los criterios del DSM V y sobre factores asociados. La tabulación de los datos se realizó en el programa SPSS versión 15.0. Para el análisis se utilizó frecuencias, porcentajes, razón de prevalencia, Índice de confianza al 95% y valor de p para determinar asociación estadística. Se elaboraron tablas de acuerdo a los objetivos, utilizando el programa Microsoft Excel 2010. RESULTADOS: Basado en los criterios del DSM V la prevalencia de Trastorno Disfórico Premenstrual encontrada fue de 8.41%. De los factores asociados estudiados se encontró que la herencia fue un factor de riesgo con una RP: 4.76 Valor de p: 0.02, la cual fue valorada subjetivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Las adolescentes con mayor riesgo de presentar TDPM en el colegio Manuela Garaicoa de Calderón son aquellas estudiantes que tienen relación en cuanto a herencia.

Size anomalies in EU bank stock returns

Mestrado em Finanças

Assessment of Risk Factors and Prognosis in Asphyxiated Infants

Background: Asphyxia is considered an important cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates. This condition can affect many vital organs including the central nervous system and may eventually lead to death or developmental disorders. Objectives: Considering the high prevalence of asphyxia and its adverse consequences, the present study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for birth asphyxia and assess their correlation with prognosis in asphyxiated infants. Patients and Methods: This two-year follow-up cohort study was conducted on 260 infants (110 asphyxiated infants and 150 healthy neonates) at Mashhad Ghaem Hospital during 2007 - 2014. Data collection tools consisted of a researcher-designed questionnaire including maternal and neonatal information and clinical/laboratory test results. The subjects were followed-up, using Denver II test for 6, 12, 18, and 24 months (after discharge). For data analysis, t-test was performed, using SPSS version 16.5. P value ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Of 260 neonates, 199 (76.5%) and 61 (23.5%) cases presented with normal neonatal outcomes and with abnormal neonatal outcomes (developmental delay), respectively. Variables such as the severity of asphyxia (P = 0.000), five-minute Apgar score (P = 0.015), need for ventilation (P = 0.000), and severity of acidosis at birth (P = 0.001) were the major prognostic factors in infants with asphyxia. Additionally, prognosis was significantly poorer in boys and infants with dystocia history (P = 0.000). Conclusions: Prevalence of risk factors for developmental delay including the severity of asphyxia need for mechanical ventilation, and severity of acidosis at birth, dystocia, and Apgar score were lower in surviving infants; therefore, controlling these risk factors may reduce asphyxia-associated complications.

Threshold values of sagittal abdominal diameter for the detection of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Northeastern Mexico: a cross-sectional study

Background: The use of sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) has been proposed for screening cardio-metabolic risk factors; however, its accuracy can be influenced by the choice of thresholds values. Aim: To determine the SAD threshold values for cardio-metabolic risk factors in Mexican adults; to assess whether parallel and serial SAD testing can improve waist circumference (WC) sensitivity and specificity; and to analyze the effect of considering SAD along with WC and body mass index (BMI) in detecting cardio-metabolic risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 2012-2014 in Northeast Mexico (n = 269). Data on anthropometric, clinical, and biochemical measurements were collected. Sex-adjusted receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC) were obtained using hypertension, dysglycemia, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance as individual outcomes and metabolic syndrome as a composite outcome. Age-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Results: The threshold value for SAD with acceptable combination of sensitivity and specificity was 24.6 cm in men and 22.5 cm in women. Parallel SAD testing improved WC sensitivity and serial testing improved WC specificity. The co-occurrence of high WC/high SAD increased the risk for insulin resistance by 2.4-fold (95% CI: 1.1-5.3), high BMI/high SAD by 4.3-fold (95% CI: 1.7-11.9) and SAD alone by 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2.-4.2). Conclusions: The use of SAD together with traditional obesity indices such as WC and BMI has advantages over using either of these indices alone. SAD may be a powerful screening tool for interventions for high-risk individuals.

The contribution of workplace characteristics to the risk of Type 2 Diabetes

Diabetes has a significant economic impact on individuals, families, health systems, and countries [1]. In 2010 it was estimated that the global health expenditure on diabetes was US376 billion (€292 billion), equating to 12% of health expenditure and US1330 (€1031) per person [2]. A separate estimate in 2010 reported that diabetes cost the US US174 billion (€135 billion), with US58 billion (€45 billion) in indirect costs equating to over US2000 (€1551) on average per person with diabetes [3]. The World Health Organization estimates that between 2005 and 2030 the proportion of deaths caused by diabetes will double and global health expenditures associated with diabetes are expected to reach US490 billion (€380 billion) [1,2]. In 2003, it was estimated that diabetes cost Australia AUS6 billion (US6 billion, €5 billion), with AUS21 million (US22 million, €17 million) in indirect costs such as lost workdays and lost productivity equating to approximately AUS35 (US35, €28) per person with diabetes [4].

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. METHODS: Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged >or=25 years). RESULTS: If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.

Niacin skin sensitivity is increased in adolescents at ultra-high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND: Most studies provide evidence that the skin flush response to nicotinic acid (niacin) stimulation is impaired in schizophrenia. However, only little is known about niacin sensitivity in the ultra-high risk (UHR) phase of psychotic disorders.

METHODS: We compared visual ratings of niacin sensitivity between adolescents at UHR for psychosis according to the one year transition outcome (UHR-T n = 11; UHR-NT n = 55) with healthy controls (HC n = 25) and first episode schizophrenia patients (FEP n = 25) treated with atypical antipsychotics.

RESULTS: Contrary to our hypothesis niacin sensitivity of the entire UHR group was not attenuated, but significantly increased compared to the HC group, whereas no difference could be found between the UHR-T and UHR-NT groups. As expected, niacin sensitivity of FEP was attenuated compared to HC group. In UHR individuals niacin sensitivity was inversely correlated with omega-6 and -9 fatty acids (FA), but positively correlated with phospholipase A2 (inPLA2) activity, a marker of membrane lipid repair/remodelling.

CONCLUSIONS: Increased niacin sensitivity in UHR states likely indicates an impaired balance of eicosanoids and omega-6/-9 FA at a membrane level. Our findings suggest that the emergence of psychosis is associated with an increased mobilisation of eicosanoids prior to the transition to psychosis possibly reflecting a "pro-inflammatory state", whereas thereafter eicosanoid mobilisation seems to be attenuated. Potential treatment implications for the UHR state should be further investigated.

Screening for post 32-week preterm birth risk: how helpful is routine perinatal data collection?

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a clinical event significant but difficult to predict. Biomarkers such as fetal fibronectin and cervical length are effective, but the often are used only for women with clinically suspected preterm risk. It is unknown whether routinely collected data can be used in early pregnancy to stratify preterm birth risk by identifying asymptomatic women. This paper tries to determine the value of the Victorian Perinatal Data Collection (VPDC) dataset in predicting preterm birth and screening for invasive tests.

METHODS: De-identified VPDC report data from 2009 to 2013 were extracted for patients from Barwon Health in Victoria. Logistic regression models with elastic-net regularization were fitted to predict 37-week preterm, with the VPDC antenatal variables as predictors. The models were also extended with two additional variables not routinely noted in the VPDC: previous preterm birth and partner smoking status, testing the hypothesis that these two factors add prediction accuracy. Prediction performance was evaluated using a number of metrics, including Brier scores, Nagelkerke's R(2), c statistic.

RESULTS: Although the predictive model utilising VPDC data had a low overall prediction performance, it had a reasonable discrimination (c statistic 0.646 [95% CI: 0.596-0.697] for 37-week preterm) and good calibration (goodness-of-fit p = 0.61). On a decision threshold of 0.2, a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.333 and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.941 were achieved. Data on previous preterm and partner smoking did not significantly improve prediction.

CONCLUSIONS: For multiparous women, the routine data contains information comparable to some purposely-collected data for predicting preterm risk. But for nulliparous women, the routine data contains insufficient data related to antenatal complications.