Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Prognostication of neurologic outcome in cardiac arrest patients after mild therapeutic hypothermia: a meta-analysis of the current literature.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and false positive rate (FPR) of neurological examination and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) to predict poor outcome in adult patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for cohort studies describing the association of clinical neurological examination or SSEPs after return of spontaneous circulation with neurological outcome. Poor outcome was defined as severe disability, vegetative state and death. Sensitivity and FPR were determined. RESULTS: A total of 1,153 patients from ten studies were included. The FPR of a bilaterally absent cortical N20 response of the SSEP could be calculated from nine studies including 492 patients. The SSEP had an FPR of 0.007 (confidence interval, CI, 0.001-0.047) to predict poor outcome. The Glasgow coma score (GCS) motor response was assessed in 811 patients from nine studies. A GCS motor score of 1-2 at 72 h had a high FPR of 0.21 (CI 0.08-0.43). Corneal reflex and pupillary reactivity at 72 h after the arrest were available in 429 and 566 patients, respectively. Bilaterally absent corneal reflexes had an FPR of 0.02 (CI 0.002-0.13). Bilaterally absent pupillary reflexes had an FPR of 0.004 (CI 0.001-0.03). CONCLUSIONS: At 72 h after the arrest the motor response to painful stimuli and the corneal reflexes are not a reliable tool for the early prediction of poor outcome in patients treated with hypothermia. The reliability of the pupillary response to light and the SSEP is comparable to that in patients not treated with hypothermia.

Which prior knowledge? Quantification of in vivo brain 13C MR spectra following 13C glucose infusion using AMARES.

The recent developments in high magnetic field 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy with improved localization and shimming techniques have led to important gains in sensitivity and spectral resolution of 13C in vivo spectra in the rodent brain, enabling the separation of several 13C isotopomers of glutamate and glutamine. In this context, the assumptions used in spectral quantification might have a significant impact on the determination of the 13C concentrations and the related metabolic fluxes. In this study, the time domain spectral quantification algorithm AMARES (advanced method for accurate, robust and efficient spectral fitting) was applied to 13 C magnetic resonance spectroscopy spectra acquired in the rat brain at 9.4 T, following infusion of [1,6-(13)C2 ] glucose. Using both Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo data, the goal of this work was: (1) to validate the quantification of in vivo 13C isotopomers using AMARES; (2) to assess the impact of the prior knowledge on the quantification of in vivo 13C isotopomers using AMARES; (3) to compare AMARES and LCModel (linear combination of model spectra) for the quantification of in vivo 13C spectra. AMARES led to accurate and reliable 13C spectral quantification similar to those obtained using LCModel, when the frequency shifts, J-coupling constants and phase patterns of the different 13C isotopomers were included as prior knowledge in the analysis.

Evaluation of tumour vascularisation in two rat sarcoma models for studying isolated lung perfusion. Injection route determines the origin of tumour vessels.

Isolated cytostatic lung perfusion (ILP) is an attractive technique allowing delivery of a high-dose of cytostatic agents to the lungs while limiting systemic toxicity. In developing a rat model of ILP, we have analysed the effect of the route of tumour cell injection on the source of tumour vessels. Pulmonary sarcomas were established by injecting a sarcoma cell suspension either by the intravenous (i.v.) route or directly into the lung parenchyma. Ink perfusion through either pulmonary artery (PA) or bronchial arteries (BA) was performed and the characteristics of the tumour deposits defined. i.v. and direct injection methods induced pulmonary sarcoma nodules, with similar histological features. The intraparenchymal injection of tumour cells resulted in more reliable and reproducible tumour growth and was associated with a longer survival of the animals. i.v. injected tumours developed a PA-derived vascular tree whereas directly injected tumours developed a BA-derived vasculature.

COLOX: a new blood-based test for colorectal cancer screening

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are insufficient due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures, like colonoscopy.Available non-invasive screening tests have unfortunately low sensitivity and specificity performances.Therefore, there is a large unmet need calling for a cost-effective, reliable and non-invasive test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions AIMS & Methods: The objective is to develop a screening test able to detect early CRCs and adenomas.This test is based on a nucleic acids multi-gene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs).A colonoscopy-controlled feasibility study was conducted on 179 subjects.The first 92 subjects was used as training set to generate a statistical significant signature.Colonoscopy revealed 21 subjects with CRC,30 with adenoma bigger than 1 cm and 41 with no neoplastic or inflammatory lesions.The second group of 48 subjects (controls, CRC and polyps) was used as a test set and will be kept blinded for the entire data analysis.To determine the organ and disease specificity 38 subjects were used:24 with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),14 with other cancers than CRC (OC).Blood samples were taken from each patient the day of the colonoscopy and PBMCs were purified. Total RNA was extracted following standard procedures.Multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers.Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on these candidates and among them 60 biomarkers with significant p-values (<0.01) were selected.These biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions as cellular movement,cell signaling and interaction,tissue and cellular development,cancer and cell growth and proliferation.Two distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without lesion from those with cancer or with adenoma, named COLOX CRC and COLOX POL respectively.COLOX performances were validated using random resampling method, bootstrap. RESULTS: COLOX CRC and POL tests successfully separate patients without lesions from those with CRC (Se 67%,Sp 93%,AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma bigger than 1cm (Se 63%,Sp 83%,AUC 0.77),respectively. 6/24 patients in the IBD group and 1/14 patients in the OC group have a positive COLOX CRC CONCLUSION: The two COLOX tests demonstrated a high sensitivity and specificity to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas bigger than 1 cm.A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.

Trypanosoma cruzi: experimental Chagas' disease in Rhesus monkeys. II. Ultraestructural and cytochemical studies of peroxidase and acid phosphatase activities

Ultrastructural and cytochemical studies of peroxidase and acid phosphatase were performed in skin, lymph node and heart muscle tissue of thesus monkeys with experimental Chagas's disease. At the site of inoculation ther was a proliferative reaction with the presence of immature macrophages revealed by peroxidase technique. At the lymph node a difuse inflammatory exudate with mononuclear cells, fibroblasts and immature activated macrophages reproduces the human patrtern of acute Chagas' disease inflamatory lesions. The hearth muscle cells present different degrees of degenerative alterations and a striking increase in the number of lysosomal profiles that exhibit acid hydrolase reaction product. A strong inflammatory reaction was present due to lymphocytic infiltrate or due to eosinophil granulocytes associated to ruptured cells. The present study provides some experimental evidences that the monkey model could be used as a reliable model to characterize histopathological alterations of the human disease.

Who is the fairest of them all? The independent effect of attractive features and self-perceived attractiveness on cooperation among women

The present paper analyzes the extent to which attractiveness-related variables affect cooperative behavior in women. Cooperativeness is evaluated through a Prisoner's Dilemma Game (PDG). We consider several morphometric variables related to attractiveness: Fluctuating Asymmetry (FA), Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR, Body Mass Index (BMI) and Facial Femininity (FF). These variables have been shown to predict human behavior. We also include as a control variable a score for Self-Perceived Attractiveness (SPA). We test differences in these variables according to behavior in the PDG. Our results reveal that low FA women cooperate less frequently in the PDG. We also find that women with lower WHR are more cooperative. This result contradicts the expected relation between WHR and behavior in the PDG. We show that this effect of WHR on cooperation operates through its influence on the expectation that participants hold on the cooperative intent of their counterpart. In addition, we show that the effect of attractive features on cooperation occurs independently of the participants' perception of their own appeal. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of the evolution of cooperative behavior and under the hypothesis that attractiveness is a reliable indicator of phenotypic quality.

Preparació, estudi estructural i aplicabilitat de derivats de Poli-(4R)-hidroxi-L-prolina a la separació d’enantiòmers per tècniques cromatogràfiques o relacionades

La separació d’enantiòmers (isòmers òptics) és molt important en molts diversos camps, com les síntesis quirals, biologia, i en el camp de la farmacologia especialment. És per això, que es fa necessari de disposar de tècniques i mètodes analítics ràpids, fiables i sensibles per a la separació d’enantiòmers. La present tesi s’emmarca en el camp de la separació d’enantiòmers, concretament en la preparació de fases estacionàries quirals per al seu ús en cromatografia liquida. En aquest sentit, s’ha desenvolupat la síntesi i caracterització de molècules polimèriques quirals derivades de l’aminoàcid L-prolina que incorporades en matrius de gel de sílice poden constituïr columnes quirals per a la separació d’enantiòmers per cromatografia liquida. S’han estudiat les característiques enantioselectives d’aquests nous materials en la separació de molècules quirals, trobant-se ésser satisfactòriament enantioselectius. L’interès que suscita l’obtenció d’enantiòmers a gran escala fa que la recerca s’orienti a la recerca de materials amb elevada capacitat de càrrega, és a dir, que puguin donar lloc a la separació d’elevades quantitats d’enantiòmers. Amb aquesta finalitat s’han dut a terme assaigs de capacitat de càrrega, que han posat de manifest la possible aplicació d’aquests materials a la separació preparativa d’enantiòmers. També s’ha parat especial atenció a l’estudi de les característiques de la matriu de gel de sílice, assajant-se altres materials de sílice més porosos i que permeten així treballar amb fluxos més elevats tot reduint-ne el temps d’anàlisi i els costos associats a la separació preparativa d’enantiòmers. L'estudi conformacional d'aquests nous selectors també ha estat contemplat per tal d'explicar l'enantioselectivitat específica que s'observa en certs dissolvents orgànics en els qual es duu a terme la separació dels enantiòmers.

Variation in habitat suitability does not always relate to variation in species' plant functional traits.

Habitat suitability models, which relate species occurrences to environmental variables, are assumed to predict suitable conditions for a given species. If these models are reliable, they should relate to change in plant growth and function. In this paper, we ask the question whether habitat suitability models are able to predict variation in plant functional traits, often assumed to be a good surrogate for a species' overall health and vigour. Using a thorough sampling design, we show a tight link between variation in plant functional traits and habitat suitability for some species, but not for others. Our contrasting results pave the way towards a better understanding of how species cope with varying habitat conditions and demonstrate that habitat suitability models can provide meaningful descriptions of the functional niche in some cases, but not in others.

3D geoelectrical monitoring to follow hydric soil behaviour during rainfall

RESUME Durant les dernières années, les méthodes électriques ont souvent été utilisées pour l'investigation des structures de subsurface. L'imagerie électrique (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT) est une technique de prospection non-invasive et spatialement intégrée. La méthode ERT a subi des améliorations significatives avec le développement de nouveaux algorithmes d'inversion et le perfectionnement des techniques d'acquisition. La technologie multicanale et les ordinateurs de dernière génération permettent la collecte et le traitement de données en quelques heures. Les domaines d'application sont nombreux et divers: géologie et hydrogéologie, génie civil et géotechnique, archéologie et études environnementales. En particulier, les méthodes électriques sont souvent employées dans l'étude hydrologique de la zone vadose. Le but de ce travail est le développement d'un système de monitorage 3D automatique, non- invasif, fiable, peu coûteux, basé sur une technique multicanale et approprié pour suivre les variations de résistivité électrique dans le sous-sol lors d'événements pluvieux. En raison des limitations techniques et afin d'éviter toute perturbation physique dans la subsurface, ce dispositif de mesure emploie une installation non-conventionnelle, où toutes les électrodes de courant sont placées au bord de la zone d'étude. Le dispositif le plus approprié pour suivre les variations verticales et latérales de la résistivité électrique à partir d'une installation permanente a été choisi à l'aide de modélisations numériques. Les résultats démontrent que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle et plus apte à détecter les variations latérales et verticales de la résistivité électrique, et cela malgré la configuration non-conventionnelle des électrodes. Pour tester l'efficacité du système proposé, des données de terrain ont été collectées sur un site d'étude expérimental. La technique de monitorage utilisée permet de suivre le processus d'infiltration 3D pendant des événements pluvieux. Une bonne corrélation est observée entre les résultats de modélisation numérique et les données de terrain, confirmant par ailleurs que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle. La nouvelle technique de monitorage 3D de résistivité électrique permet de caractériser les zones d'écoulement préférentiel et de caractériser le rôle de la lithologie et de la pédologie de manière quantitative dans les processus hydrologiques responsables d'écoulement de crue. ABSTRACT During the last years, electrical methods were often used for the investigation of subsurface structures. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) has been reported to be a useful non-invasive and spatially integrative prospecting technique. The ERT method provides significant improvements, with the developments of new inversion algorithms, and the increasing efficiency of data collection techniques. Multichannel technology and powerful computers allow collecting and processing resistivity data within few hours. Application domains are numerous and varied: geology and hydrogeology, civil engineering and geotechnics, archaeology and environmental studies. In particular, electrical methods are commonly used in hydrological studies of the vadose zone. The aim of this study was to develop a multichannel, automatic, non-invasive, reliable and inexpensive 3D monitoring system designed to follow electrical resistivity variations in soil during rainfall. Because of technical limitations and in order to not disturb the subsurface, the proposed measurement device uses a non-conventional electrode set-up, where all the current electrodes are located near the edges of the survey grid. Using numerical modelling, the most appropriate arrays were selected to detect vertical and lateral variations of the electrical resistivity in the framework of a permanent surveying installation system. The results show that a pole-dipole array has a better resolution than a pole-pole array and can successfully follow vertical and lateral resistivity variations despite the non-conventional electrode configuration used. Field data are then collected at a test site to assess the efficiency of the proposed monitoring technique. The system allows following the 3D infiltration processes during a rainfall event. A good correlation between the results of numerical modelling and field data results can be observed since the field pole-dipole data give a better resolution image than the pole-pole data. The new device and technique makes it possible to better characterize the zones of preferential flow and to quantify the role of lithology and pedology in flood- generating hydrological processes.

Detecting and measuring deprivation in primary care: development, reliability and validity of a self-reported questionnaire: the DiPCare-Q.

OBJECTIVES: Advances in biopsychosocial science have underlined the importance of taking social history and life course perspective into consideration in primary care. For both clinical and research purposes, this study aims to develop and validate a standardised instrument measuring both material and social deprivation at an individual level. METHODS: We identified relevant potential questions regarding deprivation using a systematic review, structured interviews, focus group interviews and a think-aloud approach. Item response theory analysis was then used to reduce the length of the 38-item questionnaire and derive the deprivation in primary care questionnaire (DiPCare-Q) index using data obtained from a random sample of 200 patients during their planned visits to an ambulatory general internal medicine clinic. Patients completed the questionnaire a second time over the phone 3 days later to enable us to assess reliability. Content validity of the DiPCare-Q was then assessed by 17 general practitioners. Psychometric properties and validity of the final instrument were investigated in a second set of patients. The DiPCare-Q was administered to a random sample of 1898 patients attending one of 47 different private primary care practices in western Switzerland along with questions on subjective social status, education, source of income, welfare status and subjective poverty. RESULTS: Deprivation was defined in three distinct dimensions: material (eight items), social (five items) and health deprivation (three items). Item consistency was high in both the derivation (Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 (KR20) =0.827) and the validation set (KR20 =0.778). The DiPCare-Q index was reliable (interclass correlation coefficients=0.847) and was correlated to subjective social status (r(s)=-0.539). CONCLUSION: The DiPCare-Q is a rapid, reliable and validated instrument that may prove useful for measuring both material and social deprivation in primary care.

Coloration signals the ability to cope with elevated stress hormones: effects of corticosterone on growth of barn owls are associated with melanism.

Stressful situations during development can shape the phenotype for life by provoking a trade-off between development and survival. Stress hormones, mainly glucocorticoids, play an important orchestrating role in this trade-off. Hence, how stress sensitive an animal is critically determines the phenotype and ultimately fitness. In several species, darker eumelanic individuals are less sensitive to stressful conditions than less eumelanic conspecifics, which may be due to the pleiotropic effects of genes affecting both coloration and physiological traits. We experimentally tested whether the degree of melanin-based coloration is associated with the sensitivity to an endocrine response to stressful situations in the barn owl. We artificially administered the mediator of a hormonal stress response, corticosterone, to nestlings to examine the prediction that corticosterone-induced reduction in growth rate is more pronounced in light eumelanic nestlings than in darker nest mates. To examine whether such an effect may be genetically determined, we swapped hatchlings between randomly chosen pairs of nests. We first showed that corticosterone affects growth and, thus, shapes the phenotype. Second, we found that under corticosterone administration, nestlings with large black spots grew better than nestlings with small black spots. As in the barn owl the expression of eumelanin-based coloration is heritable and not sensitive to environmental conditions, it is therefore a reliable, genetically based sign of the ability to cope with an increase in blood corticosterone level.

Skeletal Muscle Mitochondrial and Lipid Droplet Volume Density: Validity of Electron Microscopy Point-counting Measurements

Mitochondrial (M) and lipid droplet (L) volume density (vd) are often used in exercise research. Vd is the volume of muscle occupied by M and L. The means of calculating these percents are accomplished by applying a grid to a 2D image taken with transmission electron microscopy; however, it is not known which grid best predicts these values. PURPOSE: To determine the grid with the least variability of Mvd and Lvd in human skeletal muscle. METHODS: Muscle biopsies were taken from vastus lateralis of 10 healthy adults, trained (N=6) and untrained (N=4). Samples of 5-10mg were fixed in 2.5% glutaraldehyde and embedded in EPON. Longitudinal sections of 60 nm were cut and 20 images were taken at random at 33,000x magnification. Vd was calculated as the number of times M or L touched two intersecting grid lines (called a point) divided by the total number of points using 3 different sizes of grids with squares of 1000x1000nm sides (corresponding to 1µm2), 500x500nm (0.25µm2) and 250x250nm (0.0625µm2). Statistics included coefficient of variation (CV), 1 way-BS ANOVA and spearman correlations. RESULTS: Mean age was 67 ± 4 yo, mean VO2peak 2.29 ± 0.70 L/min and mean BMI 25.1 ± 3.7 kg/m2. Mean Mvd was 6.39% ± 0.71 for the 1000nm squares, 6.01% ± 0.70 for the 500nm and 6.37% ± 0.80 for the 250nm. Lvd was 1.28% ± 0.03 for the 1000nm, 1.41% ± 0.02 for the 500nm and 1.38% ± 0.02 for the 250nm. The mean CV of the three grids was 6.65% ±1.15 for Mvd with no significant differences between grids (P>0.05). Mean CV for Lvd was 13.83% ± 3.51, with a significant difference between the 1000nm squares and the two other grids (P<0.05). The 500nm squares grid showed the least variability between subjects. Mvd showed a positive correlation with VO2peak (r = 0.89, p < 0.05) but not with weight, height, or age. No correlations were found with Lvd. CONCLUSION: Different size grids have different variability in assessing skeletal muscle Mvd and Lvd. The grid size of 500x500nm (240 points) was more reliable than 1000x1000nm (56 points). 250x250nm (1023 points) did not show better reliability compared with the 500x500nm, but was more time consuming. Thus, choosing a grid with square size of 500x500nm seems the best option. This is particularly relevant as most grids used in the literature are either 100 points or 400 points without clear information on their square size.

Stability of isoenzyme and kinetoplast DNA (k-DNA) patterns in successively cloned Trypanosoma cruzi populations

Four Trypanosoma cruzi strains from zymodermes A, B, C and D were successively clonedon BHI-LIT-agar-blood BLAB). Twenty clones from the first generation (F1), 10 from The second (F2) and 4 from the third (F3) from the strains A138, B147 and C23 were isolated. The D150 strain provied 29 F1 and F2 clones. The strains and clones had their isoenzyme and K-DNA patterns determined. The clones from A138, Bl47 and C231 strains presented isoemzyme and K-DNA patterns identical between thewmselves and their respective parental strains. Therefore showing the homogenety and stability of isoenzyme and K-DNA patterns after successive cloning. The Dl50 strain from zymodeme D (ZD) showed heterogeneity. Twenty-eight out of 29 clones of the first generation were of zymodeme A and only one was of zymodeme C, confirming previous reports that ZD strains consisted of ZA and ZC parasite populations. The only D150 strain clone of zymodeme C showed a K-DNA pattern identical to its parental strain. The remining clones although similar among themselves were different from the parental strain. Thus the T. cruzi strains had either homonogeneus or heterogeneous populations. The clones produced by successive cloning provided genetically homonogeous populations. Their experimental use will make future results more reliable and reproducible.