A BDI-based approach for the assessment of driver's decision-making in commuter scenarios

The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

The impact of mayor leadership on education: evidence from Brazil

What are the impacts of female mayors on education? It is well known that in Brazil, like in many other countries around the globe, women are underrepresented in political posts. Understanding the impacts of this discrepancy on policy choice and redistribution across many areas of inquiry is, therefore, an important research endeavor. Extant literature shows a strong link between women and the economic development of the areas they govern, specifically that they provide public goods relevant to the needs of women constituents. However, despite the efforts to explore the impacts of gender political leaders, we still do not know what is the consequence of gender on policy outcomes. Exploring a rich dataset on Brazilian municipalities, I intend to enrich the literature on the role of female politicians on politics. I employ a regression discontinuity design using Brazilian elections and indicators on education based on the basic education development index (IDEB), education expenditures and local policies. I find that municipalities where a woman enters into power do not perform better on education and do not present more investments or policies to improve education.

Análise da precificação de imóveis na cidade do Rio de Janeiro utilizando Modelagem Hedônica e os efeitos da autocorrelação espacial

A escolha da cidade do Rio de Janeiro como sede de grandes eventos esportivos mundiais, a Copa do Mundo de Futebol de 2014 e os Jogos Olímpicos de 2016, colocou-a no centro de investimentos em infraestrutura, mobilidade urbana e segurança pública, com consequente impacto no mercado imobiliário, tanto de novos lançamentos de empreendimentos, quanto na revenda de imóveis usados. Acredita-se que o preço de um imóvel dependa de uma relação entre suas características estruturais como quantidade de quartos, suítes, vagas de garagem, presença de varanda, tal como sua localização, proximidade com centros de trabalho, entretenimento e áreas valorizadas ou degradadas. Uma das técnicas para avaliar a contribuição dessas características para a formação do preço do imóvel, conhecido na Econométrica como Modelagem Hedônica de Preços, é uma aplicação de regressão linear multivariada onde a variável dependente é o preço e as variáveis independentes, as respectivas características que deseja-se modelar. A utilização da regressão linear implica em observar premissas que devem ser atendidas para a confiabilidade dos resultados a serem analisados, tais como independência e homoscedasticidade dos resíduos e não colinearidade entre as variáveis independentes. O presente trabalho objetiva aplicar a modelagem hedônica de preços para imóveis localizados na cidade do Rio de Janeiro em um modelo de regressão linear multivariada, em conjunto com outras fontes de dados para a construção de variáveis de acessibilidade e socioambiental a fim de verificar a relação de importância entre elas para a formação do preço e, em particular, exploramos brevemente a tendência de preços em função da distância a favelas. Em atenção aos pré-requisitos observados para a aplicação de regressão linear, verificamos que a premissa de independência dos preços não pode ser atestada devido a constatação da autocorrelação espacial entre os imóveis, onde não apenas as características estruturais e de acessibilidade são levadas em consideração para a precificação do bem, mas principalmente a influência mútua que os imóveis vizinhos exercem um ao outro.

Contribution to the chemoreception capacity of juvenile Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta, L.)

Loggerhead sea turtle juveniles (Caretta caretta), pelagic stage, are found in waters of Madeira archipelago. Pelagic turtles are in the main growth phase of their life cycle and consequently higher energy needs. However, knowledge about the ecology of pelagic loggerhead sea turtles is still quite rudimentary, mainly about the mechanisms that lead them to find food in the vast ocean. Studies with other pelagic species, such as procellariiform birds, revealed that the olfactory system play an important role for the detection of feeding areas, through the detection of concentration peaks of DMS (dimethylsulfide), a scent compound that naturally exists in the marine environment and it is related to areas of high productivity. Based on the assumption that loggerhead sea turtles use a similar mechanism, behavioural experiments were conducted in order to analyze the chemoreception capacity to DMS (airborne chemoreception - theoretically responsible for the long distance detection of areas with food patches; and aquatic chemoreception - theoretically responsible for the short distance detection of preys). The first step was to observe if pelagic loggerheads demonstrate sensitivity to DMS and the second was to verify if they really use the DMS, in natural conditions, as an airborne cue to find areas where food patches might be available. Four juveniles of loggerhead sea turtles were tested in captivity and three wild turtles in the open ocean. The results of airborne chemoreception experiments in captivity revealed that one turtle clearly demonstrated sensitivity to DMS and the sea experiments confirmed this result. However, the experiments were not conclusive on the question whether the pelagic turtles actually use the DMS as an airborne cue to detect long distance food patches. In aquatic chemoreception experiments was not observed sensitivity to DMS by the three sea turtles tested. In the classical conditioning experiment, where DMS and food were given nearly at the same time revealed that after a certain period of time, the sea turtle tested did not associated the DMS stimulus with a possible food reward. The main cause of mortality of loggerhead sea turtles in Madeira waters is due to the accidental capture (bycatch) by deep pelagic longlines fishery which the target species is the black-scabbard (Aphanopus carbo) fish. Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) is one of the baits used in this fishery. Aquatic chemoreception experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the attractiveness of the chub mackerel for sea turtles. For the three sea turtles tested, the results showed that in 90% of the cases the sea turtles were extremely attracted by the underwater smell of this fish.

Ecology and conservation of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira Archipelago, Portugal

This study aimed to provide an insight on the ecology of the bottlenose dolphin population in Madeira archipelago. To achieve this, population structure; group dynamics, site-fidelity, residency and movement patterns within and out of the study area; survival and abundance estimates and spatial and temporal distribution and habitat preferences related to physiographic parameters using data collected between 2001-2011, were investigated. Photo-identification data analysis revealed strong evidences that bottlenose dolphins seen in the archipelago of Madeira belong to an open population with regular recruitment of new animals to the area. This population exhibited a typical fission-fusion society, in which short-term acquaintances prevail, with only a few long-lasting associations. Photo-identification methods demonstrated that there is a large variability in residency pattern, with resident, transient and migrant individuals. Only a small number of dolphins were found to be resident (4.3%). Social network diagram as well as SLAR analysis supported the existence of a mixed population of residents, migrants and transients. Mark-recapture methods estimated a high survival rate, within the range of other long-lived cetacean species. The resident community is composed of app. 180 individuals. In addition, around 400 dolphins of different residency patterns were found to use the south area of Madeira Island. Spatial distribution indicated that bottlenose dolphins were regularly found in shallow and closer to shore areas, suggesting the existence of biological processes influenced by bathymetry. Moreover, temporal patterns revealed no strong seasonal fluctuation in the presence of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira archipelago waters. Bottlenose dolphins are listed under the Annex II of the EU habitats Directive that requires the designation of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for this species; as such, the knowledge gained through this work can be used by governmental authorities to the establishment and management of areas for the conservation of bottlenose dolphin in Madeira archipelago.

Integrating eye tracking in virtual reality for stroke rehabilitation

This thesis reports on research done for the integration of eye tracking technology into virtual reality environments, with the goal of using it in rehabilitation of patients who suffered from stroke. For the last few years, eye tracking has been a focus on medical research, used as an assistive tool  to help people with disabilities interact with new technologies  and as an assessment tool  to track the eye gaze during computer interactions. However, tracking more complex gaze behaviors and relating them to motor deficits in people with disabilities is an area that has not been fully explored, therefore it became the focal point of this research. During the research, two exploratory studies were performed in which eye tracking technology was integrated in the context of a newly created virtual reality task to assess the impact of stroke. Using an eye tracking device and a custom virtual task, the system developed is able to monitor the eye gaze pattern changes over time in patients with stroke, as well as allowing their eye gaze to function as an input for the task. Based on neuroscientific hypotheses of upper limb motor control, the studies aimed at verifying the differences in gaze patterns during the observation and execution of the virtual goal-oriented task in stroke patients (N=10), and also to assess normal gaze behavior in healthy participants (N=20). Results were found consistent and supported the hypotheses formulated, showing that eye gaze could be used as a valid assessment tool on these patients. However, the findings of this first exploratory approach are limited in order to fully understand the effect of stroke on eye gaze behavior. Therefore, a novel model-driven paradigm is proposed to further understand the relation between the neuronal mechanisms underlying goal-oriented actions and eye gaze behavior.

Avaliação ambiental de manguezais adjacentes aos campos petrolíferos de Macau e Serra (RN), como subsídio às medidas mitigadoras ao processo erosivo

Among the various effects caused by the climate change and human intervention, the mangrove ecosystem changes through of the years has been worth mentioning, which hasn t known which are the pros and cons for the adjacent coastal and estuarine environments yet. It happens due to the present dynamism in these areas, besides of the difficult understanding of the processes associated with evolution. This study aimed to environmentally evaluate adjacent mangroves from the Macau and Serra oil fields, located on Rio Grande do Norte northern coast, to support the mitigating actions related to the containment of the erosive process, as well as, according to the principles of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to assess the amount of atmospheric carbon sequestered by the studied ecosystem. An inventory was conducted through mangrouve mapping which has supplied this research, especially regarding to the structural characterization of mangrove areas. To understand the local mangrove behavior in a greater level detail, techniques of remote sensing, GIS and GPS were used to make an analogy between the current and past states of the mangrove studied, allowing to make anticipated projections for the future impacts or changes in that region. This study combined data from multispectral LANDSAT 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+ with radar microwave data from SAR RADARSAT-1, which increased the interpretation capacity of the data from optical sensor systems. The interpretations have been supported by the data field, representing a better and innovative methodology for the environmental and taxonomic characterization of mangrove forests considered. The results reveal that mangroves of the Ponta do Tubarão Sustainable Development Reserve are biologically representative areas and providing a variety of benefits, especially for local communities, constituting the priority sites for actions development aimed at conservation. They also have been showing the necessity to make mitigating measures in order to recover degraded areas through reforestation or creating new areas of mangrove, as currently 7.1% of the mangrove forests studied are dead or in an advanced state of decomposition. The amount of atmospheric carbon sequestered proved very significant when analyzed for the whole area, which is able to sequester atmospheric 4,294,458 Ton CO2 per year

Ecologia trófica em uma taxocenose de anfíbios: estrutura, filogenia e especialização individual

Historically, ever since the pre-Darwinian naturalists interspecific competition was considered the main force responsible for structuring ecological communities. This interpretation lost strength in the late 70s and throughout the 80s giving room for other views, which consider other factors such as predation, parasitism and the phylogenetic inertia more important. Studies on changes in the trophic niche of a species are still uncommon in general and especially in amphibians. Species considered generalist might actually be a group of individual specialists, or individuals that specialize in a particular category of prey during a period of scarcity of resources, thus reducing intraspecific competition. This work studied the community structure of litter amphibians and trophic variation along the dry and rainy seasons in a population of Leptodactylus macrosternum. Sixteen-litter frog species were studied for their diet. Two central assumptions were tested: 1a) if the community is structured in the niche trophic level, and 1b) if there is a significant difference in the use of food resources by different species (i.e. if the community is structured), the observed structure is the result of ecological interactions or just the current phylogenetic inertia of species. Finally, 2) if there is variation in food resource use between seasons for L. macrosternum. The community showed a structure with respect to the use of food resources, and this structure persisted after taking into account the phylogenetic relationships among species. The diet of Leptodactylus macrosternum varied with the seasons, with a significant degree of individual specialization for the dry season. Patterns of a local community are important to understand its dynamics, and this may play a role in larger- scale processes. Therefore, the studies in community ecology are fundamental to understand and eventually restoring degraded areas

Tradução, adaptação e validação da versão brasileira do questionário utian quality of life (uqol) para avaliação da qualidade de vida no climatério

The present study had as objective translates, to do equivalence and validation of the Utian Quality of Life (UQOL) for the Brazilian population through methods internationally accepted, in which the original questionnaire was translated for the Portuguese by three teachers and the consensual version was translated back for English by two American teachers (back translation). A multidisciplinary committee evaluated all versions and the final version in Portuguese was applied to climacteric women for the process of adaptation. Validation of the instrument was performed by measuring the reliability and validity properties. Construct validity was examined through the comparison between UQOL and the general measuring scale of quality of life Short Form-36 (SF-36). The final version of translation process was easily recognized by the target population, that didn't tell understanding problems. The results obtained for the reliability intra and interobserver showed significant agreement in all of the subjects. The construct validity was obtained through correlations statistically significant among the domains occupational, health and emotional of UQOL with the SF-36 domains. For the exploratory factorial analysis, it was verified that three factors explain 60% of the total variance of the data, the present study allowed concluding that UQOL was appropriately translated and adapted for applicability in Brazil, presenting high reliability and validity. In that way, the executed project provided the involvement of different areas as gynecology, psychology and physiotherapy (interdisciplinary). Thus, this instrument can be included and used in Brazilian studies to assessment the quality of life during the climacteric years

Accumulation of six metals in the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Crustacea: Ucididae) and its food source, the red mangrove Rhizophora mangle (Angiosperma: Rhizophoraceae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Abundance of sedentary consumers and sessile organisms along the wave exposure gradient of subtropical rocky shores of the south-west Atlantic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial variability of physical attributes of an alfisol under different hillslope curvatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Selectivity of the plant growth regulators trinexapac-ethyl and sulfometuron-methyl to cultivated species

The aerial spraying of plant ripeners on sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum L.) crops causes often the contamination of neighboring areas, which subsidizes formal complaints from the neighbors. These contaminations are due to spraying taking place during inadequate environmental conditions or from technical mistakes during the application. One of the most important causes of this contamination is the susceptibility of the species being cultivated surrounding sugar cane. In order to evaluate the effects of sugar cane plant ripeners trinexapac-ethyl and sulfometuron-methyl on peanuts, cotton, potato, coffee, citrus, beans, sunflower, cassava, rubber, soybean, and grapes, eleven experiments - one for each species - were carried out from May 2009 to Jan. 2010. The field experiment was set according to a completely random design with five treatments and four replications. Just before or during flowering, a single treatment of trinexapac-ethyl at 100 or 200 g ha-1 and sulfometuron-methyl at 7.5 or 15 g ha-1 was applied to plants. A control treatment (plants not treated) for each species was part of each experiment. Trinexapac, at the doses of 100 and 200 g ha-1, showed selectivity to peanuts, cotton, potato, coffee, citrus, sunflower, cassava, rubber, soybean, and grape. At the lowest dose (100 g ha-1), it was selective for bean. Sulfometuron, at the dose of 7.5 g ha-1, was selective for peanuts and, at the two studied doses (7.5 and 15 g ha-1), it was selective for coffee, citrus, cassava, and rubber.

Identification of new Bremia lactucae races in lettuce in São Paulo state

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)