961 resultados para Regime of Historicity
Resumo:
El poder de l'Estat i la sobirania tradicional s'està deteriorant de manera constant, sobretot en termes de la provisió de certs béns públics fonamentals. Els Estats, en particular, són incapaços de manejar el coneixement i la informació que és essencial per mantenir la competitivitat i la sostenibilitat en una economia interdependent. Estructures fiables de la governança mundial i la cooperació internacional estan lluny de ser establertes. Energia com a problema a les agendes p dels governs, les empreses privades i la societat civil és un exemple manifest d'aquesta dinàmica.. L'actual sistema de governança mundial d'energia implica accions polítiques disperses per actors divers. L'Agència Internacional de l'Energia té un paper destacat, però està debilitat per la seva composició limitada i basada en el coneixement- epistèmic en lloc del material o executiu. Aquest treball sosté que ni la mida ni nombre de membres disponibles estan dificultant la governabilitat mundial d'energia. Més aviat, l'energia és una sèrie de béns públics que es troben als llimbs, on els estats no poden pagar la seva disposició, així com els diversos interessos impedir l'establiment d'una autoritat internacional. Després de la introducció de la teoria del règim internacional i el concepte de coneixement basats en les comunitats epistèmiques, l'article revisa l'estat actual de la governabilitat de l'energia mundia. A continuació es presenta una comparació d'aquesta estructura amb els règims de govern nacional i regional, d'una banda, i amb règims globals ambientals i de salut, de l'altra
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The EU has been one of the main actors involved in the construction process of an international climate change regime, adopting it as an identity sign in the international arena. This activism has reverted in the European political agenda and in the one of its Members States. Therefore, climate change has become a driver for the EU growing participation in energy policy and for its governance evolution. In this context, much attention has been paid to the climate and energy policies integration agreed after the 2007 spring European Council. Apparently, this decision meant a decisive step towards the incorporation of the environmental variable in the energy policy-making. Moreover, the Action Plan [2007-2009] “Energy Policy for Europe” outlined priority actions in a variety of energy-related areas, implying the new European Energy Policy commencement. Against this background, there is still much left to understand about its formulation and its further development. Rooted on the Environmental Policy Integration approach, this paper traces the increasing proximity between environment and energy policies in order to understand the green contribution to the European Energy Policy construction.
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The aim of this working paper is to analyze the inclusion of political humor into the set of actions used by opponents to the Syrian regime during the first year of a state-wide uprising in 2011. The research argues that although political humor has traditionally been seen mainly as a concealed voice against dominant elites, it can nevertheless take a confrontational stance and challenge a regime. In this paper we assess the role of political humor in challenging the legitimacy of the Syrian State through the battle for the signification of events. We will work with a theoretical framework that draws its assumptions from social movements’ studies and cultural studies. Through the assessment of the importance of discourse and the role of ideological domination to a regime we will see how the first year of the Syrian uprising included widespread acts of political humor as part of the strategy against the regime.
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We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.
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An efficient high-resolution (HR) three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection system for small-scale targets in lacustrine settings was developed. In Lake Geneva, near the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, the offshore extension of a complex fault zone well mapped on land was chosen for testing our system. A preliminary two-dimensional seismic survey indicated structures that include a thin (<40 m) layer of subhorizontal Quaternary sediments that unconformably overlie south-east-dipping Tertiary Molasse beds and a major fault zone (Paudeze Fault Zone) that separates Plateau and Subalpine Molasse (SM) units. A 3D survey was conducted over this test site using a newly developed three-streamer system. It provided high-quality data with a penetration to depths of 300 m below the water bottom of non-aliased signal for dips up to 30degrees and with a maximum vertical resolution of 1.1 m. The data were subjected to a conventional 3D processing sequence that included post-stack time migration. Tests with 3D pre-stack depth migration showed that such techniques can be applied to HR seismic surveys. Delineation of several horizons and fault surfaces reveals the potential for small-scale geologic and tectonic interpretation in three dimensions. Five major seismic facies and their detailed 3D geometries can be distinguished. Three fault surfaces and the top of a molasse surface were mapped in 3D. Analysis of the geometry of these surfaces and their relative orientation suggests that pre-existing structures within the Plateau Molasse (PM) unit influenced later faulting between the Plateau and SM. In particular, a change in strike of the PM bed dip may indicate a fold formed by a regional stress regime, the orientation of which was different from the one responsible for the creation of the Paudeze Fault Zone. This structure might have later influenced the local stress regime and caused the curved shape of the Paudeze Fault in our surveyed area.
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The dynamics of homogeneously heated granular gases which fragment due to particle collisions is analyzed. We introduce a kinetic model which accounts for correlations induced at the grain collisions and analyze both the kinetics and relevant distribution functions these systems develop. The work combines analytical and numerical studies based on direct simulation Monte Carlo calculations. A broad family of fragmentation probabilities is considered, and its implications for the system kinetics are discussed. We show that generically these driven materials evolve asymptotically into a dynamical scaling regime. If the fragmentation probability tends to a constant, the grain number diverges at a finite time, leading to a shattering singularity. If the fragmentation probability vanishes, then the number of grains grows monotonously as a power law. We consider different homogeneous thermostats and show that the kinetics of these systems depends weakly on both the grain inelasticity and driving. We observe that fragmentation plays a relevant role in the shape of the velocity distribution of the particles. When the fragmentation is driven by local stochastic events, the longvelocity tail is essentially exponential independently of the heating frequency and the breaking rule. However, for a Lowe-Andersen thermostat, numerical evidence strongly supports the conjecture that the scaled velocity distribution follows a generalized exponential behavior f (c)~exp (−cⁿ), with n ≈1.2, regarding less the fragmentation mechanisms
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The growth history of two populations of snowball garnet from the Lukmanier Pass area (central Swiss Alps) was examined through a detailed analysis of three-dimensional geometry, chemical zoning and crystallographic orientation. The first population, collected in the hinge of a chevron-type fold, shows an apparent rotation of 360 degrees. The first 270 degrees are characterized by spiral-shaped inclusion trails, gradual and concentric Mn zoning and a single crystallographic orientation, whereas in the last 90 degrees, crenulated inclusion trails and secondary Mn maxima centred on distinct crystallographic garnet domains are observed. Microstructural, geochemical and textural data indicate a radical change in growth regime between the two growth sequences. In the first 270 degrees, growth occurred under rotational non-coaxial flow, whereas in the last 90 degrees, garnet grew under a non-rotational shortening regime. The second population, collected in the limb of the same chevron-type fold structure, is characterized by a spiral geometry that does not exceed 270 degrees of apparent rotation. These garnet microstructures do not record any evidence for a modification of the stress field during garnet growth. Concentric Mn zoning as well as a single crystallographic orientation are observed for the entire spiral. Electron backscatter diffraction data indicate that nearly all central domains in the snowball garnet are characterized by one [001] axis oriented (sub-)parallel to the symmetry axis and by another [001] axis oriented (sub-)parallel to the orientation of the internal foliation. These features suggest that the crystallographic orientation across the garnet spiral is not random and that a relation exists among the symmetry axis, the internal foliation and the crystallographic orientation.
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Résumé Scientific:Pétrologie et Géochimie du Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén et les conséquences pour l'évolution magmatique et tectonique du Andes du Sud (Patagonia) pendant le MiocèneLe sujet de cette thèse est le Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén (CHPC), situé à la frontière entre le Chili et l'Argentine, en Patagonie (49°15'S). Ce complexe s'est mis en place au début du Miocène, dans un contexte de changements tectoniques importants. La géométrie et la vitesse de migration des plaques en Patagonie a été modifiée suite l'ouverture de la plaque Farallon il y a 25Ma (Pardo-Casas and Molnar 1987) et la subduction de la ride active du Chili sous la plaque sud-américaine il y a 14Ma (Cande and Leslie 1986). Les effets de cette reconfiguration tectonique sur la morphologie et le magmatisme de la plaque supérieure sont encore sujets à discussion. Dans ce contexte, un groupe d'intrusions miocènes - telle que le CHPC - est particulièrement intriguant, car en position transitionnelle entre le batholithe patagonien et l'arc volcanique cénozoïque et récent à l'ouest, et les laves de plateau de Patagonie à l'est (Fig. 1). A cause de leur position tectonique transitoire, ces plutons isolés hors du batholithe représentent un endroit clé pour comprendre les interactions entre la tectonique à large échelle et le magmatisme en Patagonie. Ici, je présente de nouvelles données de terrain, petrologiques, géochimiques et géochronologiques dans le but de caractériser la nature du CHPC, qui était largement inconnu avant cette étude, dans le but de tester l'hypothèse de migration de l'arc et erosion par subduction.Les résultats de l'investigation géochimique (chapitre 2) montrent que le CHPC n'est qu'un exemple parmi les plutons isolés d'arrière arc ave une composition calco-alcaline caractéristique, c-à-d une signature d'arc. La plupart de ces plutons isolés ont une composition alcaline. Le CHPC, contrairement, a une signature calco-alcaline avec Κ intermédiaire, tel que le batholithe patagonien et la plupart des roches volcaniques quaternaires liées à l'arc le long des Andes.De nouvelles données géochronologiques U-Pb de haute précision sur des zircons, acquis par TIMS, sur le CHPC donnent des âges entre 17.0 et 16.4Ma. Les âges absolus sont en accord avec la séquence intrusive déduite des relations de terrain (chapitre 1). Ces données sont les premières contraintes d'âge U-Pb sur le CHPC. Elles montrent clairement que l'histoire magmatique du CHPC n'a pas de lien direct avec la subduction de la ride à cette latitude (Cande and Leslie 1986), car le complexe est au moins 6Ma plus ancien.Une comparaison en profondeur avec les autres intrusions d'âge Miocène en Patagonie révèlent - pour la première fois - une évolution temporelle intéressante. Il y a une tendance E-W distincte au magmatisme calco-alcalin entre 20-16Ma avec une diminution de l'âge vers l'est - le CHPC est l'expression la plus orientale de cette tendance. Je suggère que la relation espace-temps reflète une migration vers l'est (vers le continent) de l'arc magmatique. Je propose que le facteur principal contrôlant cette migration est la subduction rapide suite à la reconfiguration de la vitesse des plaques tectoniques après l'ouverture la plaque Farallon (à ~26Ma) qui résulterait en une déformation importante ainsi qu'à des taux élevés d'érosion dans la fosse de subduction.Les rapports d'isotopes radiogéniques (Pb, Sr, Nd) élevés, une signature 6018 basse et un rapport Th/La élevé sont des paramètres distinctifs pour les roches mafiques du CHPC. Le modèle isotopique présenté (chapitre 2) suggère que cette signature reflète une contamination de la source, dans le coin de manteau, plutôt qu'une contamination crustale. La signature des éléments en trace du CHPC indiquent que le coin de manteau a été contaminé par des composés terrigènes, le plus vraisemblablement par des sédiments paléozoïques.Les travaux de terrain, la pétrographie et la géothermobarométrie ont été utilisés dans le but de comprendre l'histoire interne du CHPC (chapitre 3). Ces données suggèrent deux niveaux distincts de cristallisation : l'un dans la croûte moyenne (6 à 4.5kbar) et l'autre à un niveau peu profond (3.5 à 2kbar). La modélisation isotopique AFC de la contamination crustale indique des taux variables d'assimilation, qui ne sont pas corrélés avec le degré de différenciation. Cela suggère que différents volumes de magma se sont différenciés en profondeur, de façon indépendante. Cela implique que le CHPC se serait formés en plusieurs puises de magmas provenant d'au moins trois sources différentes. Les textures des granodiorites et des granites indiquent des teneurs élevées en cristaux avant la mise en place et, par conséquent, des températures d'emplacement faibles. Les observations de terrain montrent que les roches mafiques sont déformées, alors que ce n'est pas le cas pour les granodiorites et granites (plus jeunes). La déformation des roches mafiques est encore sujet de recherche, afin de savoir si elle est liée à la déformation régionale en régime compressif ou à l'emplacement lui-même. Cependant, la mise en place de grand volume de magma felsique riche en cristaux suggère un régime d'extension.Scientific Abstract:Petrology and chemistry of the Chaltén Plutonic Complex and implications on the magmatic and tectonic evolution of the Southernmost Andes (Patagonia) during the MioceneThe subject of this thesis is the Chaltén Plutonic Complex (CHPC) located at the frontier between Chile and Argentina in Patagonia (at 49° 15 'Southern latitude). This complex intruded during early Miocene in a context of major tectonics changes. The plate geometry of Patagonia has been modified by changes in the plate motions after the break up of the Farallôn plate at 25Ma (Pardo-Casas and Molnar 1987) and by the subduction of the Chile spreading Ridge beneath South-America at 14 Ma (Cande and Leslie 1986). The effects of this tectonic setting on the morphology and the magmatism of the overriding plate are a matter of on-going discussion. Particularly intriguing in this context is a group of isolated Miocene intrusions - like the CHPC - which are located in a transitional position between the Patagonian Batholith and the Cenozoic and Recent volcanic arc in the West, and the Patagonian plateau lavas in the East (Fig. 1). Due to their transient tectonic position these isolated plutons outside the batholith represent a key to understanding the interaction between global-scale tectonics and magmatism in Patagonia. Here, I present new field, penological, geochemical and geochronological data to characterize the nature of the CHPC, which was largely unknown before this study, in order to test the hypothesis of time- transgressive magmatism.The results of the geochemical investigation (Chapter 2) show that the CHPC is only one among these isolated back-arc plutons with a characteristic calc-alkaline composition, i.e. arc signature. Most of these isolated intrusives have an alkaline character. The CHPC, in contrast, has a medium Κ calc-alkaline signature, like the Patagonian batholith and most of the Quaternary arc-related volcanic rocks along the Andes.New high precision TIMS U-Pb zircon dating of the CHPC yield ages between 17.0 to 16.4 Ma. The absolute ages support the sequence of intrusion relations established in the field (Chapter 1). These data are the first U-Pb age constraints on the CHPC, and clearly show that the magmatic history of CHPC has no direct link to the subduction of the ridge, since this complex is at least 6 Ma older than the time of collision of the Chile ridge at this latitude (Cande and Leslie 1986).An in-depth comparison with other intrusion of Miocene age in Patagonia reveals - for the first time - an interesting temporal pattern. There is a distinct E-W trend of calc-alkaline magmatism between 20-16 Ma with the younging of ages in the East - the CHPC is the easternmost expression of this trend. I suggest that this time-space relation reflects an eastward (landward) migration of the magmatic arc. I propose that main factor controlling this migration is the fast rates of subduction after the major reconfigurations of the plate tectonic motions after the break up of the Farallôn Plate (at -26 ) resulting in strong deformation and high rates of subduction erosion.High radiogenic isotope ratios (Pb, Sr, Nd) ratios, low 5018 signature and high Th/La ratios in mafic rocks are distinctive features of the CHPC. The presented isotopic models (Chapter 2) suggest that this signature reflects source contamination of the mantle wedge rather than crustal contamination. The trace element signature of the CHPC indicates that the mantle wedge was contaminated with a terrigenous component, most likely from Paleozoic sediments.Fieldwork, petrography and geothermobarometry were used to further unravel the internal history of the CHPC (Chapter 3). These data suggest two main levels of crystallization: one a mid crustal levels (6 to 4.5 kbar) and other a shallow level (3.5 to 2 kbar). Isotopic AFC modeling of crustal contamination indicate variable rates of assimilation, which are not correlated with the degree of differentiation. This suggests that different batches of magma differentiate independently at depths. This implies that the CHPC would have formed by several pulses of magmas from at least 3 different sources. Textures of granodiorites and granites indicate a high content of crystals previous to the emplacement and consequently low emplacement temperatures. Field observations show that the mafic rocks are deformed, whereas the (younger) granodiorites and granites are not. It is still subject of investigation whether the deformation of the mafic rocks is related to regional deformation during a compressional regime or to the emplacement it self. However, the emplacement of huge amount of crystal rich felsic magmas suggests an extensional regime.Résumé Grand PublicPétrologie et Géochimie du Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén et les conséquences pour l'évolution magmatique et tectonique du Andes du Sud (Patagonia) pendant le MiocèneLe Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén (CHPC) est un massif montagneux situé à 49°S à la frontière entre le Chili et l'Argentine, en Patagonie (région la plus au sud de l'Amérique du Sud). Il est composé de montagnes qui peuvent atteindre plus de 3000 mètres d'altitude, telles que le Cerro Fitz Roy (3400m) et le Cerro Torre (3100m). Ces montagnes sont composées de roches plutoniques, c.-à-d. des magmas qui se sont refroidis et ont cristallisés sous la surface terrestre.La composition chimique de ces roches montre que les magmas, qui ont formé ce complexe plutonique, font partie d'un volcanisme d'arc. Celui-ci se forme lorsqu'une plaque océanique plonge sous une plaque continentale. Les géologues appellent ce processus « subduction ». Dans un tel scénario, le manteau terrestre, qui se fait prendre entre ces deux plaques, fond pour former ainsi du magma. Ce magma remonte à travers la plaque continentale vers la surface. Si celui-ci atteint la surface, il forme les roches volcaniques, comme par exemple des laves. S'il n'atteint pas la surface, le magma se refroidit pour former finalement les roches plutoniques.Le long de la marge ouest d'Amérique du Sud, la plaque Nazca - qui se situe au sud-est de la plaque océanique pacifique - passe en dessous de la plaque d'Amérique du Sud. La bordure ouest du sud de la plaque sud-américaine a également été affectée par d'autres processus tectoniques, tels que des changements dramatiques dans les déplacements de plaques (il y a 25Ma) et la collision de la ride du Chili (depuis 15 Ma jusqu'à aujourd'hui). Ces caractéristiques tectoniques et magmatiques font de cette région un haut lieu pour les géologues. La plaque Nazca, s'est formée suite à l'ouverture d'une plaque océanique plus ancienne, il y a 25Ma. Cette ouverture est liée aux vitesses de subduction les plus rapides jamais connues. La ride du Chili est l'endroit où le sol de l'Océan Pacifique s'ouvre, formant deux plaques océaniques : les plaques Nazca et Antarctique. La ride du Chili subducte sous la plaque sud-américaine depuis 15Ma, en association avec la formation de grands volumes de magma ainsi que des changements morphologiques importants. La question de savoir lequel de ces changements tectoniques globaux affecte la géologie et la géographie de Patagonie a été, et est encore, discutée pendant de nombreuses années. De nombreux chercheurs suggèrent que la plupart des caractéristiques morphologiques et magmatiques en Patagonie sont liés à la subduction de la ride du Chili, mais cette suggestion est encore débattue comme le montre notre étude.Le batholithe de Patagonie du sud (SPB) est un énorme massif composé de roches plutoniques et il s'étend tout au long de la côte ouest de Patagonie (au sud de 47°S). Ces roches correspondent certainement aux racines d'un ancien arc volcanique, qui a été soulevé et érodé. Le CHPC, ainsi que d'autres petites intrusions dans la région, se situe dans une position exotique, à 100km à l'est du SPB. Certains chercheurs suggèrent que ces intrusions pourraient être liées à la subduction de la ride du Chili.Afin de débattre de cette problématique, nous avons utilisé différentes méthodes géochronologiques pour déterminer l'âge du CHPC et le comparer (a) à l'âge des roches intrusives similaires du SPB et (b) à l'âge de la collision de la ride du Chili. Dans ce travail, nous prouvons que le CHPC s'est formé au moins 7Ma avant la collision avec la ride du Chili. Sur la base des âges du CHPC et de la composition chimique de ses roches et minéraux, nous proposons que le CHPC fait partie d'un arc volcanique ancien. La migration de l'arc volcanique plus profondément dans le continent résulte de la grande vitesse de subduction entre 25 et lOMa. Des caractéristiques évidentes pour un tel processus - telles qu'une déformation importante et une vitesse d'érosion élevée - peuvent être rencontrées tout au long de la bordure ouest de l'Amérique du sud.
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In the decade of the 1990s, China’s feed sector became increasingly privatized, more feed mills opened, and the scale of operation expanded. Capacity utilization remained low and multi-ministerial supervision was still prevalent, but the feed mill sector showed a positive performance overall, posting a growth rate of 11 percent per year. Profit margin over sales was within allowable rates set by the government of China at 3 to 5 percent. Financial efficiency improved, with a 20 percent quicker turnover of working capital. Average technical efficiency was 0.805, as more efficient feed mills increasingly gained production shares. This study finds evidence that the increasing privatization explains the improved performance of the commercial feed mill sector. The drivers that shaped the feed mill sector in the 1990s have changed with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. With the new policy regime in place, the study foresees that, assuming an adequate supply of soy meal and an excess capacity in the feed mill sector, it is likely that China will allow corn imports up to the tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 mmt since the in-quota rate is very low at 1 percent. However, when the TRQ is exceeded, the import duty jumps to a prohibitive out-quota rate of 65 percent. With an import duty for meat of only 10 to 12 percent, China would have a strong incentive to import meat products directly rather than bringing in expensive corn to produce meat domestically. This would be further reinforced if structural transformation in the swine sector would narrow the cost differential between domestic and imported pork.
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A dynamic, three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a freemarket policy and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes made when FAIR was enacted did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the Pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.
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This paper derives approximations allowing the estimation of outage probability for standard irregular LDPC codes and full-diversity Root-LDPC codes used over nonergodic block-fading channels. Two separate approaches are discussed: a numerical approximation, obtained by curve fitting, for both code ensembles, and an analytical approximation for Root-LDPC codes, obtained under the assumption that the slope of the iterative threshold curve of a given code ensemble matches the slope of the outage capacity curve in the high-SNR regime.
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The exchange of social and economic support between the generationsis one of the main pillars of both family life and welfare systems. Thedebate on how to reform the generational contract is still truncated, however, by focusing on its public dimension only, especially on pensions and health care provisions. For a full account, the transfer of resources between adult generations in the family needs to be included as well. In our previous research we have shown that intergenerationalexchange is more likely to take place but less intense in the Nordicwelfare regime than in the Continental and Southern ones. In thepresent paper we analyze the social mechanisms that create and explain this nexus between patterns of intergenerational transfers and welfare regimes. The notion that Southern European family support networksare stronger and more effective than those of Continental and Northern European countries is only partially confirmed. In Southern (and partly in Continental) countries, children are mostly supported by means of co-residence with their parents till their complete economicindependence. However, once they have left the parental home thereare fewer transfers; support tends to be restricted to children who have special needs (such as for the formation of their own family), and depends more on their parents’ resources. In the Nordic countries, in contrast, transfers are less driven by children’s needs and parentalresources.
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Coherent regulation of landscape as a resource is a major challenge. How can the development interests of some actors (eg cable car operators and property developers) be reconciled with those of others (agriculture, forestry) and with conservation of biodiversity and scenic value? To help understand how the newly introduced Regional Nature Parks (RNPs) can improve the coherence of the regulation regime in Switzerland, we highlight current direct mechanisms for regulation of landscape as a resource (bans, inventories, subsidies) as well as indirect mechanisms (taking place through the regulation of the physical basis of landscapes, eg forest, land, and water planning policies). We show that RNPs are fundamentally innovative because they make it possible to manage and coordinate indirect strategies for appropriate regulation of resources at a landscape scale. In other words, RNPs enable organization of governance of landscape as a resource in a perimeter that is not necessarily restricted to administrative boundaries.
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How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.
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The Navachab gold mine in the Damara belt of central Namibia is characterized by a polymetallic Au-Bi-As-Cu-Ag ore assemblage, including pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, arsenopyrite, bismuth, gold, bismuthinite, and bismuth tellurides. Gold is hosted by quartz sulfide veins and semimassive sulfide lenses that are developed in a near-vertical sequence of shelf-type metasedimentary rocks, including marble, calcsilicate rock, and biotite schist. The sequence has been intruded by abundant syntectonic lamprophyre, aplite, and pegmatite dikes, documenting widespread igneous activity coeval with mineralization. The majority of quartz from the veins has delta(18)O values of 14 to 15 per mil (V-SMOW). The total variations in delta(18)O values of the biotite schist and calcsilicate rock are relatively small (12-14 parts per thousand), whereas the marble records steep gradients in delta(18)O values (17-21 parts per thousand), the lowest values being recorded at the vein margins. Despite this, there is no correlation between delta(18)O and delta(13)C values and the carbonate content of the rocks, indicating that fluid-rock interaction alone cannot explain the isotopic gradients. In addition, the marble records increased delta(13)C values at the contact to the veins, possibly related to a change in the physicochemical conditions during fluid-rock interaction. Gold is interpreted to have precipitated in equilibrium with metamorphic find (delta(18)O 12-14 parts per thousand; delta D = -40 to -60 parts per thousand) at peak metamorphic conditions of ca. 550 degrees C and 2 kbars, consistent with isotopic fractionations between coexisting calcite, garnet, and clinopyroxene in the alteration halos. The most likely source of the mineralizing fluid was a midcrustal fluid in equilibrium with the Damaran metapelites that underwent prograde metamorphism at amphibolite- to granulite-facies grades. Although there is no isotopic evidence for the contribution of magmatic fluids, they may have been important in contributing to the overall hydraulic regime and high apparent geothermal gradients (ca. 80 degrees C/km(-1)) in the mine area.