Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.

Long diagnostic delay in Crohn's disease is associated with complicated disease course and increased operation rate

Background and Aims: The impact of d iagnostic delay ( a period from appearance of f irst s ymptoms t o diagnosis) o n the clinical c ourse o f Crohn's disease (CD) i s unknown. W e examined whether length of d iagnostic delay a ffects d isease outcome. Methods: Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analyzed. T he frequencies of o ccurrence of b owel s tenoses, internal fistulas, perianal f istulas, and CD-related surgery at distinct i ntervals a fter C D diagnosis (0 - < 2 , 2 - < 6,  6 years) were c ompared f or g roups o f patients w ith different length of d iagnostic delay. Results: T he data from a g roup o f 200 CD patients with long diagnostic delay (> 24 months, 76th - 100th p ercentile) were c ompared to t hose from a group of 4 61 patients with a short diagnostic delay ( within 9 months, 1st - 50th p ercentile). T reatment r egimens d id n ot d iffer between t he two groups. Two years following diagnosis, p atients with long diagnostic delay presented more frequently with bowel stenoses (25% vs. 13.1%, p = 0.044), internal fistulas (10% vs. 2%, p = 0.018), perianal f istulas ( 20% vs. 8 .1%, p = 0.023) a nd more frequently underwent intestinal surgery (15% vs. 5 .1%, p = 0.024) t han patients with short diagnostic delay. Intestinal surgery was a lso m ore frequently p erformed  6 y ears after diagnosis in t he group with long d iagnostic delay ( 56.2% vs. 42.3%, p = 0.005) w hen compared to t he g roup with short diagnostic delay. Conclusions: L ong diagnostic delay i s associated with worse o utcome c haracterized by t he development o f increased bowel damage, n ecessitating more frequently operations in t he years following CD d iagnosis. Efforts should be undertaken to shorten the diagnostic delay.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Is it appropriate to index glomerular filtration rate for body surface area

Purpose: Obesity is an established independent risk factor for chronic kidney disease. Thus, measurement of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important in this population. Traditionally, GFR has been indexed for body surface area (BSA), but this indexation may not be appropriate in obese individuals. Therefore, the objective of the study was to compare absolute GFR with GFR indexed for BSA and with GFR indexed for height. Methods and materials: The study was conducted in 66 families from the Seychelles islands that included several members with hypertension. GFR and effective renal plasma flow (ERPF) were measured using inulin and PAH clearances, respectively. Antihypertensive treatment, if used, was withheld 2 weeks before conducting the clearances. Participants with diabetes mellitus were excluded from the analysis. BSA was calculated using the Dubois formula. We assessed trend across BMI categories using a non parametric test. Results: Participants included 174 women and 127 men. The prevalence of hypertension was 61%, of which 68% were treated. The table shows that absolute GFR, GFR indexed for height, ERPF, filtration fraction were significantly higher across BMI categories. When GFR was indexed for BSA, the association between GFR and BMI categories was lost. Conclusion: Indexing GFR for BSA in overweight and obese individuals leads to a substantial underestimation of GFR. Filtration fraction, which does not depend on BSA, is higher in obese individuals, which suggests glomerular hyperfiltration. Indexing GFR for BSA therefore would mask the underlying glomerular hyperfiltration. As the number of nephrons does not increase with weight gain, absolute GFR represents a better marker of single nephron GFR and is more appropriate.

Issue review : impact on the insurance premium tax rate reduction .

In 2002, Senate File 2318, Insurance Premium Tax Reduction Act, the Iowa General Assembly approved a reduction in the insurance premium tax rate from 2 percent to 1 percent. The reduction was phased in at the rate of 1/4 percent annual increments over a five-year period, beginning with life and health insurance policy payments made on or after January 1st, 2003. Calendar year 2007 was the first year all premiums were taxed at 1 percent and fiscal year 2008 was the first full fiscal year at the 1 percent rate. Insurance premiums tax is paid only by insurance companies. The companies that benefit from the tax reduction are uniquely identified in government employment statistics. This allows for a unique opportunity to evaluate both the revenue impact and the employment impact of the tax rate reduction in Senate File 2318. This issue review focuses on the General Fund revenue impact of the rate reduction and the Iowa employment trends for the insurance industry since the rate reduction legislation was approved.

Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet

Lutetium zoning in garnet within eclogites from the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone, Western Alps, reveal sharp, exponentially decreasing central peaks. They can be used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion in garnets. A prograde garnet growth temperature interval of 450-600 A degrees C has been estimated based on pseudosection calculations and garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry. The maximum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of D-0= 5.7*10(-6) m(2)/s, taking an estimated activation energy of 270 kJ/mol based on diffusion experiments for other rare earth elements in garnet. This corresponds to a maximum diffusion rate of D (600 A degrees C) = 4.0*10(-22) m(2)/s. The diffusion estimate of Lu can be used to estimate the minimum closure temperature, T-c, for Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf age data that have been obtained in eclogites of the Western Alps, postulating, based on a literature review, that D (Hf) < D (Nd) < D (Sm) a parts per thousand currency sign D (Lu). T-c calculations, using the Dodson equation, yielded minimum closure temperatures of about 630 A degrees C, assuming a rapid initial exhumation rate of 50A degrees/m.y., and an average crystal size of garnets (r = 1 mm). This suggests that Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf isochron age differences in eclogites from the Western Alps, where peak temperatures did rarely exceed 600 A degrees C must be interpreted in terms of prograde metamorphism.

The effect of obesity, age, puberty and gender on resting metabolic rate in children and adolescents.

During puberty fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) change quickly and these changes are influenced by sex and obesity. Since it is not completely known how these changes affect resting metabolic rate (RMR), the aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of body composition, age, sex and pubertal development of postabsorptive RMR in 9.5- to 16.5- year-old obese and non-obese children. Postabsorptive RMR was measured in a sample of 371 pre- and postpubertal children comprising 193 males (116 non-obese and 77 obese) and 178 females (119 non-obese and 59 obese). RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system for 45 min after an overnight fast. Body composition (FFM and FM) was estimated from skinfold measurements. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was significantly (P < 0.001) lower in non-obese (males: 5600 +/- 972 kJ/24 h; females: 5112 +/- 632 kJ/24 h) than in obese (males: 7223 +/- 1220 kJ/24 h; females: 6665 +/- 1106 kJ/24 h) children. This difference became non-significant when RMR was adjusted for body composition (FFM+FM). However, the difference between the genders still remained significant (control male: 6118 +/- 507, control female: 5652 +/- 507, P < 0.001; obese male: 6256 +/- 507, obese female: 5818 +/- 507 kJ/24 h, P < 0.001). The main determinant of RMR was FFM. In the whole cohort. FFM explained 79.8% of the variation in RMR, followed by age, gender and FM adding further 3.8%, 1.1% and 0.8% to the predictability of RMR, respectively. No significant contribution for study group (obese, non-obese), pubertal stage, or fat distribution was found in the regression for RMR. The adjusted value of RMR (for FFM and FM) slightly, but significantly (P < 0.01) decreased between the age of 10-16 years, demonstrating the important effect of age on RMR. CONCLUSIONS: The resting metabolic rate of obese and control children is not different when adjusted for body composition. The main determinant of RMR is the fat-free mass, however, age, gender and fat mass are also significant factors. Pubertal development and fat distribution do not influence RMR independently from the changes in body composition.

Preoperative hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy (HART) and concomitant CPT-11 in locally advanced rectal carcinoma: a phase I study.

PURPOSE: Patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma are at risk for both local recurrence and distant metastases. We demonstrated the efficacy of preoperative hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy (HART). In this Phase I trial, we aimed at introducing chemotherapy early in the treatment course with both intrinsic antitumor activity and a radiosensitizer effect. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Twenty-eight patients (19 males; median age 63, range 28-75) with advanced rectal carcinoma (cT3: 24; cT4: 4; cN+: 12; M1: 5) were enrolled, including 8 patients treated at the maximally tolerated dose. Escalating doses of CPT-11 (30-105 mg/m(2)/week) were given on Days 1, 8, and 15, and concomitant HART (41.6 Gy, 1.6 Gy bid x 13 days) started on Day 8. Surgery was to be performed within 1 week after the end of radiochemotherapy. RESULTS: Twenty-six patients completed all preoperative radiochemotherapy as scheduled; all patients underwent surgery. Dose-limiting toxicity was diarrhea Grade 3 occurring at dose level 6 (105 mg/m(2)). Hematotoxicity was mild, with only 1 patient experiencing Grade 3 neutropenia. Postoperative complications (30 days) occurred in 7 patients, with an anastomotic leak rate of 22%. CONCLUSIONS: The recommended Phase II dose of CPT-11 in this setting is 90 mg/m(2)/week. Further Phase II exploration at this dose is warranted.

Scale Effects in Hydraulic Model Tests of Rock Protected Structures, HR-119, 1970

A laboratory investigation was undertaken to determine the limiting model Reynolds number above which the scour behavior of rock protected structures can be reproduced in hydraulic models scaled according to the Froude criterion. A submerged jet was passed over an initially full scour pocket containing uniform glass spheres and the rate of scour was measured as a function of time. The dimensions of the scour pocket and jet and the particle diameters were varied as needed to maintain strict geometric similarity. For each of two different Froude numbers the Reynolds number was varied over a wide range. The normalized scour rate was found to be practically independent of the Reynolds number, R, (based on the jet velocity and particle diameter) at values of R above about 2.5 x 10^3, and to decrease with Rat smaller values. A grid placed in the jet was found to have a very strong effect on the scour rate. In an attempt to explain the effect of R on the scour behavior, turbulent pressure and velocity fluctuations were measured in air flows and water flows, respectively, over rigid scour pockets having the same geometry as those formed in the scour experiments. The normalized spectra of the fluctuations were found to be nearly independent of R, but the flow pattern was found to be very sensitive to the inlet condition, the jet deflecting upward or downward in a not wholly explainable manner. This indicates that scour behavior can be modeled only if the approach flow is also accurately modeled.

Factors affecting the attack rate of Bemisia tabaci on cucumber

The objective of this work was to determine the effects of rainfall, temperature, predators, parasitoids, plant age, leaf chemical composition, levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium, besides density of leaf trichomes, on attack intensity of Bemisia tabaci biotype B on the Cucumis sativus. An increase in the number of whitefly adults and nymphs per leaf was observed with plant aging. A higher number of whitefly adults per leaf and eggs cm-2 was verified in the apical part than in the middle and bottom part of the plants canopy. However, the higher number of whitefly nymphs was observed in the mid-part than in the apical and bottom part of the plant canopy. The incidence of whitefly nymphs was negatively affected with foliar nitrogen. Pentacosane and octacosane positively affected whitefly adults and the first compound also affected the nymphs of this pest species.

Ultrastructural changes of the internal limiting membrane removed during indocyanine green assisted peeling versus conventional surgery for an idiopathic epimacular membrane

Purpose:To evaluate the histological features of cellular retinal fragments on the internal limiting membrane (ILM) removed during epiretinal membrane peeling surgery with and without the aid of ICG diluted in 5% glucose Methods:ILM specimens removed from 88 eyes undergoing vitrectomy and membrane peeling surgery for idiopathic epiretinal membrane between 1995 and 2003 were reviewed retrospectively. Surgery was performed in all cases by the same surgeon using the same technique. ICG was diluted with 5% glucose. Histological analysis focused on the presence and characteristics of retinal structures on the retinal surface of the ILM. Statistical analysis compared the results between group I (conventional surgery without ICG) and group II (ICG-assisted peeling) Results:Seventy-one eyes underwent EMM surgery without the aid of ICG (group I) and seventeen underwent EMM ICG-assisted surgery assisted using ICG (group II). The amount of Muller cell debris on the retinal surface of the ILM was more significant in the group I (no ICG) than in the group II (ICG) (40.8 versus 11.8; p = 0.024). Large fragments of Muller cells were more frequently observed in the group I (no ICG) than in the group II (ICG) (63.4% versus 23.5%; p= 0.003).The presence of larger retinal elements such as neural axons and vessels were observed attached to retinal face of the ILM in 5 (7%) cases of the no-ICG group. No such retinal elements were detected in any of the histological ILM specimens of the ICG-assisted group Conclusions:The use of ICG diluted with 5% glucose in the aid of ILM removal during epiretinal membrane surgery was associated with less retinal debris attached to retinal face of the ILM compared to surgery in which ICG was not used. Our findings contradict previous reports in the literature, in which use of ICG diluted with balanced salt solution (BSS) was associated with more retinal fragments attached to the retinal face of the ILM. According to our results, we hypothesize that diluting ICG with 5% glucose may decrease the adhesion of the ILM to the underlying retinal layers such that less retinal debris is removed with peeling of the ILM.

Enhancement of oxidation rate of a-Si nanoparticles during dehydrogenation

Oxidation of amorphous silicon (a-Si) nanoparticles grown by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition were investigated. Their hydrogen content has a great influence on the oxidation rate at low temperature. When the mass gain is recorded during a heating ramp in dry air, an oxidation process at low temperature is identified with an onset around 250°C. This temperature onset is similar to that of hydrogen desorption. It is shown that the oxygen uptake during this process almost equals the number of hydrogen atoms present in the nanoparticles. To explain this correlation, we propose that oxidation at low temperature is triggered by the process of hydrogen desorption

Improving Portland Cement Concrete Mix Consistency and Production Rate through Two-Stage Mixing, TR-505, 2007

A two-stage mixing process for concrete involves mixing a slurry of cementitious materials and water, then adding the slurry to coarse and fine aggregate to form concrete. Some research has indicated that this process might facilitate dispersion of cementitious materials and improve cement hydration, the characteristics of the interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between aggregate and paste, and concrete homogeneity. The goal of the study was to find optimal mixing procedures for production of a homogeneous and workable mixture and quality concrete using a two-stage mixing operation. The specific objectives of the study are as follows: (1) To achieve optimal mixing energy and time for a homogeneous cementitious material, (2) To characterize the homogeneity and flow property of the pastes, (3) To investigate effective methods for coating aggregate particles with cement slurry, (4) To study the effect of the two-stage mixing procedure on concrete properties, (5) To obtain the improved production rates. Parameters measured for Phase I included: heat of hydration, maturity, and rheology tests were performed on the fresh paste samples, and compressive strength, degree of hydration, and scanning electron microscope (SEM) imaging tests were conducted on the cured specimens. For Phases II and III tests included slump and air content on fresh concrete and compressive and tensile strengths, rapid air void analysis, and rapid chloride permeability on hardened concrete.