948 resultados para Random Coefficient Autoregressive Model{ RCAR (1)}


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Detailed information about the sediment properties and microstructure can be provided through the analysis of digital ultrasonic P wave seismograms recorded automatically during full waveform core logging. The physical parameter which predominantly affects the elastic wave propagation in water-saturated sediments is the P wave attenuation coefficient. The related sedimentological parameter is the grain size distribution. A set of high-resolution ultrasonic transmission seismograms (ca. 50-500 kHz), which indicate downcore variations in the grain size by their signal shape and frequency content, are presented. Layers of coarse-grained foraminiferal ooze can be identified by highly attenuated P waves, whereas almost unattenuated waves are recorded in fine-grained areas of nannofossil ooze. Color-encoded pixel graphics of the seismograms and instantaneous frequencies present full waveform images of the lithology and attenuation. A modified spectral difference method is introduced to determine the attenuation coefficient and its power law a = kfn. Applied to synthetic seismograms derived using a "constant Q" model, even low attenuation coefficients can be quantified. A downcore analysis gives an attenuation log which ranges from ca. 700 dB/m at 400 kHz and a power of n = 1-2 in coarse-grained sands to few decibels per meter and n ? 0.5 in fine-grained clays. A least squares fit of a second degree polynomial describes the mutual relationship between the mean grain size and the attenuation coefficient. When it is used to predict the mean grain size, an almost perfect coincidence with the values derived from sedimentological measurements is achieved.

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Measurements of winter balance (bw) and summer balance (bs) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series prior to 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that bw was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949-2006, obtained correlations (r) for bw and bs varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925-1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower bw than the average for 1949-2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ± 0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.

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Here we present a 1200 yr long benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca based temperature and oxygen isotope record from a ~900 m deep sediment core off northwest Africa to show that atmosphere-ocean interactions in the eastern subpolar gyre are transferred at central water depth into the eastern boundary of the subtropical gyre. Further we link the variability of the NAO (over the past 165 yrs) and solar irradiance (Late Holocene) and their control on subpolar mode water formation to the multidecadal variability observed at mid-depth in the eastern subtropical gyre. Our results show that eastern North Atlantic central waters cooled by up to ~0.8± 0.7 °C and densities decreased by Sigma theta=0.3±0.2 during positive NAO years and during minima in solar irradiance during the Late Holocene. The presented records demonstrate the sensitivity of central water formation to enhanced atmospheric forcing and ice/freshwater fluxes into the eastern subpolar gyre and the importance of central water circulation for cross-gyre climate signal propagation during the Late Holocene.

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