Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Monitoring switch-type sensors and powering autonomous sensors via inductive coupling: application to removable seats in vehicles

Aquesta tesi explora la possibilitat de fer servir enllaços inductius per a una aplicació de l’automòbil on el cablejat entre la centraleta (ECU) i els sensors o detectors és difícil o impossible. S’han proposat dos mètodes: 1) el monitoratge de sensors commutats (dos possibles estats) via acoblament inductiu i 2) la transmissió mitjançant el mateix principi físic de la potència necessària per alimentar els sensors autònoms remots. La detecció d'ocupació i del cinturó de seguretat per a seients desmuntables pot ser implementada amb sistemes sense fils passius basats en circuits ressonants de tipus LC on l'estat dels sensors determina el valor del condensador i, per tant, la freqüència de ressonància. Els canvis en la freqüència són detectats per una bobina situada en el terra del vehicle. S’ha conseguit provar el sistema en un marge entre 0.5 cm i 3 cm. Els experiments s’han dut a terme fent servir un analitzador d’impedàncies connectat a una bobina primària i sensors comercials connectats a un circuit remot. La segona proposta consisteix en transmetre remotament la potència des d’una bobina situada en el terra del vehicle cap a un dispositiu autònom situat en el seient. Aquest dispositiu monitorarà l'estat dels detectors (d'ocupació i de cinturó) i transmetrà les dades mitjançant un transceptor comercial de radiofreqüència o pel mateix enllaç inductiu. S’han avaluat les bobines necessàries per a una freqüència de treball inferior a 150 kHz i s’ha estudiat quin és el regulador de tensió més apropiat per tal d’aconseguir una eficiència global màxima. Quatre tipus de reguladors de tensió s’han analitzat i comparat des del punt de vista de l’eficiència de potència. Els reguladors de tensió de tipus lineal shunt proporcionen una eficiència de potència millor que les altres alternatives, els lineals sèrie i els commutats buck o boost. Les eficiències aconseguides han estat al voltant del 40%, 25% i 10% per les bobines a distàncies 1cm, 1.5cm, i 2cm. Les proves experimentals han mostrat que els sensors autònoms han estat correctament alimentats fins a distàncies de 2.5cm.

Updating the geographical distribution and frequency of Aedes albopictus in Brazil with remarks regarding its range in the Americas

The geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in Brazil was updated according to the data recorded across the country over the last eight years. Countrywide house indexes (HI) for Ae. albopictus in urban and suburban areas were described for the first time using a sample of Brazilian municipalities. This mosquito is currently present in at least 59% of the Brazilian municipalities and in 24 of the 27 federal units (i.e., 26 states and the Federal District). In 34 Brazilian municipalities, the HI values for Ae. albopictus were higher than those recorded for Ae. aegypti, reaching figures as high as HI = 7.72 in the Southeast Region. Remarks regarding the current range of this mosquito species in the Americas are also presented. Nineteen American countries are currently infested and few mainland American countries have not confirmed the occurrence of Ae. albopictus. The large distribution and high frequency of Ae. albopictus in the Americas may become a critical factor in the spread of arboviruses like chikungunya in the new world.

Long-range heterogeneity at the 3' ends of human mRNAs.

The publication of a draft of the human genome and of large collections of transcribed sequences has made it possible to study the complex relationship between the transcriptome and the genome. In the work presented here, we have focused on mapping mRNA 3' ends onto the genome by use of the raw data generated by the expressed sequence tag (EST) sequencing projects. We find that at least half of the human genes encode multiple transcripts whose polyadenylation is driven by multiple signals. The corresponding transcript 3' ends are spread over distances in the kilobase range. This finding has profound implications for our understanding of gene expression regulation and of the diversity of human transcripts, for the design of cDNA microarray probes, and for the interpretation of gene expression profiling experiments.

Revision of the genus acrochordiceras hyatt, 1877 (Ammonoidea, Middle Triassic): Morphology, biometry, biostratigraphy and intra-specific variability

The family Acrochordiceratidae Arthaber, 1911 ranges in age from latest Spathian to the middle/late Anisian boundary, and it represents a major component of ammonoid faunas during that time. The middle Anisian genus Acrochordiceras Hyatt, 1877 is the most widespread taxon of the family and occurs abundantly worldwide within the low paleolatitude belt. However, there is a profusion of species names available for Acrochordiceras. This excessive diversity at the species level essentially results from the fact that sufficiently large samples were not available, thus leading to a typological approach to its taxonomy. Based on new extensive collections obtained from the Anisian (Middle Triassic) Fossil Hill Member (Star Peak Group, north-west Nevada) for which a high resolution biostratigraphic frame is available, the taxonomy and biostratigraphy of the genus Acrochordiceras Hyatt, 1877 is herein revised with respect to its intra-specific variation. Morphological and biometric studies (c. 550 bedrock-controlled specimens were measured) show that only one species occurs in each stratigraphic level. Continuous ranges of intra-specific variation of studied specimens enable us to synonymize Haydenites Diener, 1907, Silesiacrochordiceras Diener, 1916 and Epacrochordiceras Spath, 1934 with Acrochordiceras Hyatt, 1877. Three stratigraphically successive species are herein recognized in the low paleolatitude middle Anisian faunas from Nevada: A. hatschekii (Diener, 1907), A. hyatti Meek, 1877 and A. carolinae Mojsisovics, 1882. Moreover, an assessment of intra-specific variation of the adult size range does not support recognition of a dimorphic pair (Acrochordiceras and Epacrochordiceras) as previously suggested by other workers (Epacrochordiceras is the compressed and weakly ornamented end-member variant of Acrochordiceras). The successive middle Anisian species of Acrochordiceras form an anagenetic lineage characterized by increasing involution, adult size and intra-specific variation. This taxonomic revision based on new bedrock-controlled collections is thus an important prerequisite before studying the evolution of the group.

Functional MRI Mapping of the Human Auditory Cortex

Mapping the human auditory cortex with standard functional imaging techniques is difficult because of its small size and angular position along the Sylvian fissure. As a result, the exact number and location of auditory cortex areas in the human remains unknown. In a first experiment, we measured the two largest tonotopic areas of primary auditory cortex (PAC, Al and R) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 Tesla relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG). The data reveals a clear anatomical- functional relationship that indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplication and complete duplication). Human PAC tonotopic areas are oriented along an oblique posterior-to-anterior axis with mirror-symmetric frequency gradients perpendicular to HG, as in the macaque. In a second experiment, we tested whether these primary frequency-tuned units were modulated by selective attention to preferred vs. non-preferred sound frequencies in the dynamic manner needed to account for human listening abilities in noisy environments, such as cocktail parties or busy streets. We used a dual-stream selective attention experiment where subjects attended to one of two competing tonal streams presented simultaneously to different ears. Attention to low-frequency tones (250 Hz) enhanced neural responses within low-frequency-tuned voxels relative to high (4000 Hz), and vice versa when at-tention switched from high to low. Human PAC is able to tune into attended frequency channels and can switch frequencies on demand, like a radio. In a third experiment, we investigated repetition suppression effects to environmental sounds within primary and non-primary early-stage auditory areas, identified with the tonotopic mapping design. Repeated presentations of sounds from the same sources, as compared to different sources, gave repetition suppression effects within posterior and medial non-primary areas of the right hemisphere, reflecting their potential involvement in semantic representations. These three studies were conducted at 7 Tesla with high-resolution imaging. However, 7 Tesla scanners are, for the moment, not yet used for clinical diagnosis and mostly reside in institutions external to hospitals. Thus, hospital-based clinical functional and structural studies are mainly performed using lower field systems (1.5 or 3 Tesla). In a fourth experiment, we acquired tonotopic maps at 3 and 7 Tesla and evaluated the consistency of a tonotopic mapping paradigm between scanners. Mirror-symmetric gradients within PAC were highly similar at 7 and 3 Tesla across renderings at different spatial resolutions. We concluded that the tonotopic mapping paradigm is robust and suitable for definition of primary tonotopic areas, also at 3 Tesla. Finally, in a fifth study, we considered whether focal brain lesions alter tonotopic representations in the intact ipsi- and contralesional primary auditory cortex in three patients with hemispheric or cerebellar lesions, without and with auditory complaints. We found evidence for tonotopic reorganisation at the level of the primary auditory cortex in cases of brain lesions independently of auditory complaints. Overall, these results reflect a certain degree of plasticity within primary auditory cortex in different populations of subjects, assessed at different field strengths. - La cartographie du cortex auditif chez l'humain est difficile à réaliser avec des techniques d'imagerie fonctionnelle standard, étant donné sa petite taille et position angulaire le long de la fissure sylvienne. En conséquence, le nombre et l'emplacement exacts des différentes aires du cortex auditif restent inconnus chez l'homme. Lors d'une première expérience, nous avons mesuré, avec de l'imagerie par résonance magnétique à haute intensité (IRMf à 7 Tesla) chez des sujets humains sains, deux larges aires au sein du cortex auditif primaire (PAC; Al et R) avec une représentation spécifique des fréquences pures préférées - ou tonotopie. Nos résultats ont démontré une relation anatomico- fonctionnelle qui définit clairement la position du PAC à travers toutes les variantes du gyrus d'Heschl's (HG). Les aires tonotopiques du PAC humain sont orientées le long d'un axe postéro-antérieur oblique avec des gradients de fréquences spécifiques perpendiculaires à HG, d'une manière similaire à celles mesurées chez le singe. Dans une deuxième expérience, nous avons testé si ces aires primaires pouvaient être modulées, de façon dynamique, par une attention sélective pour des fréquences préférées par rapport à celles non-préférées. Cette modulation est primordiale lors d'interactions sociales chez l'humain en présence de bruits distracteurs tels que d'autres discussions ou un environnement sonore nuisible (comme par exemple, dans la circulation routière). Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé une expérience d'attention sélective où le sujet devait être attentif à une des deux voies sonores présentées simultanément à chaque oreille. Lorsque le sujet portait était attentif aux sons de basses fréquences (250 Hz), la réponse neuronale relative à ces fréquences augmentait par rapport à celle des hautes fréquences (4000 Hz), et vice versa lorsque l'attention passait des hautes aux basses fréquences. De ce fait, nous pouvons dire que PAC est capable de focaliser sur la fréquence attendue et de changer de canal selon la demande, comme une radio. Lors d'une troisième expérience, nous avons étudié les effets de suppression due à la répétition de sons environnementaux dans les aires auditives primaires et non-primaires, d'abord identifiées via le protocole de la première étude. La présentation répétée de sons provenant de la même source sonore, par rapport à de sons de différentes sources sonores, a induit un effet de suppression dans les aires postérieures et médiales auditives non-primaires de l'hémisphère droite, reflétant une implication de ces aires dans la représentation de la catégorie sémantique. Ces trois études ont été réalisées avec de l'imagerie à haute résolution à 7 Tesla. Cependant, les scanners 7 Tesla ne sont pour le moment utilisés que pour de la recherche fondamentale, principalement dans des institutions externes, parfois proches du patient mais pas directement à son chevet. L'imagerie fonctionnelle et structurelle clinique se fait actuellement principalement avec des infrastructures cliniques à 1.5 ou 3 Tesla. Dans le cadre dune quatrième expérience, nous avons avons évalués la cohérence du paradigme de cartographie tonotopique à travers différents scanners (3 et 7 Tesla) chez les mêmes sujets. Nos résultats démontrent des gradients de fréquences définissant PAC très similaires à 3 et 7 Tesla. De ce fait, notre paradigme de définition des aires primaires auditives est robuste et applicable cliniquement. Finalement, nous avons évalués l'impact de lésions focales sur les représentations tonotopiques des aires auditives primaires des hémisphères intactes contralésionales et ipsilésionales chez trois patients avec des lésions hémisphériques ou cérébélleuses avec ou sans plaintes auditives. Nous avons trouvé l'évidence d'une certaine réorganisation des représentations topographiques au niveau de PAC dans le cas de lésions cérébrales indépendamment des plaintes auditives. En conclusion, nos résultats démontrent une certaine plasticité du cortex auditif primaire avec différentes populations de sujets et différents champs magnétiques.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Congenital heart disease affects local gyrification in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) is a common genetic condition associated with cognitive and learning impairments. In this study, we applied a three-dimensional method for quantifying gyrification at thousands of points over the cortical surface to imaging data from 44 children, adolescents, and young adults with 22q11.2DS (17 males, 27 females; mean age 17y 2mo [SD 9y 1mo], range 6-37y), and 53 healthy participants (21 males, 32 females; mean age 15y 4mo [SD 8y 6mo]; range 6-40y). Several clusters of reduced gyrification were observed, further substantiating the pattern of cerebral alterations presented by children with the syndrome. Comparisons within 22q11.2DS demonstrated an effect of congenital heart disease (CHD) on cortical gyrification, with reduced gyrification at the parieto-temporo-occipital junction in patients with CHD, as compared with patients without CHD. Reductions in gyrification can resemble mild polymicrogyria, suggesting early abnormal neuronal proliferation or migration and providing support for an effect of hemodynamic factors on brain development in 22q11.2DS. The results also shed light on the pathophysiology of acquired brain injury in other populations with CHD.

Chromosome size differences may affect meiosis and genome size.

Genetic crosses in many organisms have shown that alleles of unlinked genes generally assort independently of one another during gamete formation. However, variation in chromosome size may affect the process of meiosis and lead to nonindependent assortment of chromosomes. We therefore examined chromosomes with insertions and found that they preferentially segregated away from the X chromosome during meiosis in Caenorhabditis elegans males. Conversely, chromosomes with deletions preferentially segregated with the X chromosome. The degree of segregation bias was significantly associated with the length of the insertion or deletion. Simulations revealed that this segregation bias leads to genome size reduction in hermaphroditic species, a pattern consistent with differences in genome sizes in the genus Caenorhabditis. These results suggest that insertions and deletions may affect chromosome segregation patterns.

Clinical intervals and diagnostic characteristics in a cohort of prostate cancer patients in Spain: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND Little is known about the healthcare process for patients with prostate cancer, mainly because hospital-based data are not routinely published. The main objective of this study was to determine the clinical characteristics of prostate cancer patients, the, diagnostic process and the factors that might influence intervals from consultation to diagnosis and from diagnosis to treatment. METHODS We conducted a multicentre, cohort study in seven hospitals in Spain. Patients' characteristics and diagnostic and therapeutic variables were obtained from hospital records and patients' structured interviews from October 2010 to September 2011. We used a multilevel logistic regression model to examine the association between patient care intervals and various variables influencing these intervals (age, BMI, educational level, ECOG, first specialist consultation, tumour stage, PSA, Gleason score, and presence of symptoms) and calculated the odds ratio (OR) and the interquartile range (IQR). To estimate the random inter-hospital variability, we used the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS 470 patients with prostate cancer were included. Mean age was 67.8 (SD: 7.6) years and 75.4 % were physically active. Tumour size was classified as T1 in 41.0 % and as T2 in 40 % of patients, their median Gleason score was 6.0 (IQR:1.0), and 36.1 % had low risk cancer according to the D'Amico classification. The median interval between first consultation and diagnosis was 89 days (IQR:123.5) with no statistically significant variability between centres. Presence of symptoms was associated with a significantly longer interval between first consultation and diagnosis than no symptoms (OR:1.93, 95%CI 1.29-2.89). The median time between diagnosis and first treatment (therapeutic interval) was 75.0 days (IQR:78.0) and significant variability between centres was found (MOR:2.16, 95%CI 1.45-4.87). This interval was shorter in patients with a high PSA value (p = 0.012) and a high Gleason score (p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS Most incident prostate cancer patients in Spain are diagnosed at an early stage of an adenocarcinoma. The period to complete the diagnostic process is approximately three months whereas the therapeutic intervals vary among centres and are shorter for patients with a worse prognosis. The presence of prostatic symptoms, PSA level, and Gleason score influence all the clinical intervals differently.

Short- and long-term effects of litter size manipulation in a small wild-derived rodent.

Iteroparous organisms maximize their overall fitness by optimizing their reproductive effort over multiple reproductive events. Hence, changes in reproductive effort are expected to have both short- and long-term consequences on parents and their offspring. In laboratory rodents, manipulation of reproductive efforts during lactation has however revealed few short-term reproductive adjustments, suggesting that female laboratory rodents express maximal rather than optimal levels of reproductive investment as observed in semelparous organisms. Using a litter size manipulation (LSM) experiment in a small wild-derived rodent (the common vole; Microtus arvalis), we show that females altered their reproductive efforts in response to LSM, with females having higher metabolic rates and showing alternative body mass dynamics when rearing an enlarged rather than reduced litter. Those differences in female reproductive effort were nonetheless insufficient to fully match their pups' energy demand, pups being lighter at weaning in enlarged litters. Interestingly, female reproductive effort changes had long-term consequences, with females that had previously reared an enlarged litter being lighter at the birth of their subsequent litter and producing lower quality pups. We discuss the significance of using wild-derived animals in studies of reproductive effort optimization.

NADPH-diaphorase-positive ganglion cells of the rat adrenal gland: age- and sex-related changes in their number, size, and distribution.

The rat adrenal gland contains ganglion cells able to synthesize nitric oxide (NO). This messenger molecule controls and modulates adrenal secretory activity and blood flow. The present study analyzed the number, size, and distribution of NO-producing adrenal neurons in adulthood and during postnatal development by means of beta-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate-diaphorase (NADPH-d) histochemistry. This method reliably visualizes the enzyme responsible for NO generation. The reactive neurons per adrenal gland were 350-400 in both male and female adult rats. The positive nerve cell bodies were mostly located in the medulla, few being detected within the cortex and the subcapsular region. Dual labeling with anti-microtubule-associated protein 2 antibody, specific for neuronal elements, confirmed this distribution. Anti-microtubule-associated protein 1b antibody identified a subset of NADPH-d-positive neurons, displaying different degrees of maturation according to their position within the adrenal gland. At birth, there were about 220 NADPH-d-labeled neurons per adrenal gland in both sexes. As confirmed by dual immunocytochemical labeling, their great majority was evenly distributed between the cortex and the subcapsular region, the medulla being practically devoid of stained neurons. After birth, the number of adrenal NADPH-d-positive ganglion cells displayed a strong postnatal increase and reached the adult-like distribution after 1-2 months. During the period of increase, there was a transient difference in the numbers of these cells in the two sexes. Thus we present here evidence of plasticity in the number, size, and distribution of NADPH-d-positive adrenal neurons between birth and adulthood; in addition, we describe transient sex-related differences in their number and distribution during the 2nd postnatal week, which are possibly related to the epigenetic action of gonadal hormones during this period.

Central corneal thickness, intraocular pressure, and degree of myopia in an adult myopic population aged 20 to 40 years in southeast Spain: determination and relationships.

Objective: To determine the values of, and study the relationships among, central corneal thickness (CCT), intraocular pressure (IOP), and degree of myopia (DM) in an adult myopic population aged 20 to 40 years in Almeria (southeast Spain). To our knowledge this is first study of this kind in this region. Methods: An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study was done in which a sample of 310 myopic patients (620 eyes) aged 20 to 40 years was selected by gender- and age-stratified sampling, which was proportionally fixed to the size of the population strata for which a 20% prevalence of myopia, 5% epsilon, and a 95% confidence interval were hypothesized. We studied IOP, CCT, and DM and their relationships by calculating the mean, standard deviation, 95% confidence interval for the mean, median, Fisher’s asymmetry coefficient, range (maximum, minimum), and the Brown-Forsythe’s robust test for each variable (IOP, CCT, and DM). Results: In the adult myopic population of Almeria aged 20 to 40 years (mean of 29.8), the mean overall CCT was 550.12 μm. The corneas of men were thicker than those of women (P = 0.014). CCT was stable as no significant differences were seen in the 20- to 40-year-old subjects’ CCT values. The mean overall IOP was 13.60 mmHg. Men had a higher IOP than women (P = 0.002). Subjects over 30 years (13.83) had a higher IOP than those under 30 (13.38) (P = 0.04). The mean overall DM was −4.18 diopters. Men had less myopia than women (P < 0.001). Myopia was stable in the 20- to 40-year-old study population (P = 0.089). A linear relationship was found between CCT and IOP (R2 = 0.152, P ≤ 0.001). CCT influenced the IOP value by 15.2%. However no linear relationship between DM and IOP, or between CCT and DM, was found. Conclusions: CCT was found to be similar to that reported in other studies in different populations. IOP tends to increase after the age of 30 and is not accounted for by alterations in CCT values.