Differential substrate behaviours of ethylene oxide and propylene oxide towards human glutathione transferase theta hGSTT1-1

The transformation of ethylene oxide (EO), propylene oxide (PO) and 1- butylene oxide (1-BuO) by human glutathione transferase theta (hGSTT1-1) was studied comparatively using 'conjugator' (GSTT1 + individuals) erythrocyte lysates. The relative sequence of velocity of enzymic transformation was PO > EO >> 1-BuO. The faster transformation of PO compared to EO was corroborated in studies with human and rat GSTT1-1 (hGSTT1-1 and rGSTT1-1, respectively) expressed by Salmonella typhimurium TA1535. This sequence of reactivities of homologous epoxides towards GSTT1-1 contrasts to the sequence observed in homologous alkyl halides (methyl bromide, MBr; ethyl bromide, EtBr; n-propyl bromide, PrBr) where the relative sequence MeBr >> EtBr > PrBr is observed. The higher reactivity towards GSTT1-1 of propylene oxide compared to ethylene oxide is consistent with a higher chemical reactivity. This is corroborated by experimental data of acid-catalysed hydrolysis of a number of aliphatic epoxides, including ethylene oxide and propylene oxide and consistent with semi-empirical molecular orbital modelings.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Differential effects of monotony versus fatigue on driving performance and the effectiveness of various detection methods : implications for road safety in the ACT

Background Situational driving factors, including fatigue, distraction, inattention and monotony, are recognised killers in Australia, contributing to an estimated 40% of fatal crashes and 34% of all crashes . More often than not the main contributing factor is identified as fatigue, yet poor driving performance has been found to emerge early in monotonous conditions, independent of fatigue symptoms and time on task. This early emergence suggests an important role for monotony. However, much road safety research suggests that monotony is solely a task characteristic that directly causes fatigue and associated symptoms and there remains an absence of consistent evidence explaining the relationship. Objectives We report an experimental study designed to disentangle the characteristics and effects of monotony from those associated with fatigue. Specifically, we examined whether poor driving performance associated with hypovigilance emerges as a consequence of monotony, independent of fatigue. We also examined whether monotony is a multidimensional construct, determined by environmental characteristics and/or task demands that independently moderate sustained attention and associated driving performance. Method Using a driving simulator, participants completed four, 40 minute driving scenarios. The scenarios varied in the degree of monotony as determined by the degree of variation in road design (e.g., straight roads vs. curves) and/or road side scenery. Fatigue, as well as a number of other factors known to moderate vigilance and driving performance, was controlled for. To track changes across time, driving performance was assessed in five minute time periods using a range of behavioural, subjective and physiological measures, including steering wheel movements, lane positioning, electroencephalograms, skin conductance, and oculomotor activity. Results Results indicate that driving performance is worse in monotonous driving conditions characterised by low variability in road design. Critically, performance decrements associated with monotony emerge very early, suggesting monotony effects operate independent of fatigue. Conclusion Monotony is a multi-dimensional construct where, in a driving context, roads containing low variability in design are monotonous and those high in variability are non-monotonous. Importantly, low variability in road side scenery does not appear to exacerbate monotony or associated poor performance. However, high variability in road side scenery can act as a distraction and impair sustained attention and poor performance when driving on monotonous roads. Furthermore, high sensation seekers seem to be more susceptible to distraction when driving on monotonous roads. Implications of our results for the relationship between monotony and fatigue, and the possible construct-specific detection methods in a road safety context, will be discussed.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Optimal HMM filtering and decision feedback equalisation for differential encoded transmission systems

In this paper conditional hidden Markov model (HMM) filters and conditional Kalman filters (KF) are coupled together to improve demodulation of differential encoded signals in noisy fading channels. We present an indicator matrix representation for differential encoded signals and the optimal HMM filter for demodulation. The filter requires O(N3) calculations per time iteration, where N is the number of message symbols. Decision feedback equalisation is investigated via coupling the optimal HMM filter for estimating the message, conditioned on estimates of the channel parameters, and a KF for estimating the channel states, conditioned on soft information message estimates. The particular differential encoding scheme examined in this paper is differential phase shift keying. However, the techniques developed can be extended to other forms of differential modulation. The channel model we use allows for multiplicative channel distortions and additive white Gaussian noise. Simulation studies are also presented.