German macro: how it's different and why that matters. EPC Discussion Paper, May 2016

Do the macroeconomics of the German political establishment really differ from standard western macroeconomics? That question was the starting point for the seminar on ‘German macro: How it’s Different and Why that Matters’, which was held at Heriot-Watt University in December 2015, with financial support from the Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) and the Money, Macro & Finance Research Group (MMF). This ebook, edited by George Bratsiotis and David Cobham, is the result of that exercise; six of the papers were presented at the seminar in earlier versions, and the editors sought some additional papers to complete the range of perspectives offered. The authors all sought out to discover whether or not there is something unique about German macroeconomics, and in what ways it differs from standard western macroeconomics; is it true that the former neglects demand management (although it may be quite interventionist in other ways), rejects debt relief and emphasises structural reform designed to improve competitiveness as the (only) key to economic growth? How much of whatever difference exists is due to a well worked out set of ideas in the form of Ordoliberalism? In what way does it relate to Germany’s own experiences in different periods? And how far is this the result of political preferences and how much do the idiosyncrasies of these German views matter, for the development of the Eurozone and indeed the health of the German economy?

Scotland and the European Union. EPC Policy Brief, 14 July 2016

Britain’s referendum on EU membership revealed a country divided; while the United Kingdom voted to leave by 52%, Scotland voted by 62% to remain in the EU, putting the question of Scottish independence back on the table. The Scottish government says that Scotland should not be taken out of the EU against the will of its people, and that a second referendum on independence is “highly likely”. Although the Scottish people voted against independence in a referendum in 2014, opinion polls currently suggest that a majority in Scotland wants another referendum, and would vote for independence. In this Policy Brief, Graham Avery looks at how the Scottish question relates to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU; what factors have changed since the Scottish people voted against independence in 2014 and what Scotland‘s chances are of remaining in the EU.

Chronostratigraphy of eastern Mediterranen Sea sediment cores

An Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) 14C dated multiparameter event stratigraphy is developed for the Aegean Sea on the basis of highly resolved (centimeter to subcentimeter) multiproxy data collected from four late glacial to Holocene sediment cores. We quantify the degree of proportionality and synchroneity of sediment accumulation in these cores and use this framework to optimize the confidence levels in regional marine, radiocarbon-based chronostratigraphies. The applicability of the framework to published, lower-resolution records from the Aegean Sea is assessed. Next this is extended into the wider eastern Mediterranean, using new and previously published high-resolution data from the northern Levantine and Adriatic cores. We determine that the magnitude of uncertainties in the intercore comparison of AMS 14C datings based on planktonic foraminifera in the eastern Mediterranean is of the order of ±240 years (2 SE). These uncertainties are attributed to synsedimentary and postsedimentary processes that affect the materials dated. This study also offers a background age control that allows for vital refinements to radiocarbon-based chronostratigraphy in the eastern Mediterranean, with the potential for similar frameworks to be developed for any other well-studied region.