993 resultados para Probabilistic methods
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Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.
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This thesis is composed of three main parts. The first consists of a state of the art of the different notions that are significant to understand the elements surrounding art authentication in general, and of signatures in particular, and that the author deemed them necessary to fully grasp the microcosm that makes up this particular market. Individuals with a solid knowledge of the art and expertise area, and that are particularly interested in the present study are advised to advance directly to the fourth Chapter. The expertise of the signature, it's reliability, and the factors impacting the expert's conclusions are brought forward. The final aim of the state of the art is to offer a general list of recommendations based on an exhaustive review of the current literature and given in light of all of the exposed issues. These guidelines are specifically formulated for the expertise of signatures on paintings, but can also be applied to wider themes in the area of signature examination. The second part of this thesis covers the experimental stages of the research. It consists of the method developed to authenticate painted signatures on works of art. This method is articulated around several main objectives: defining measurable features on painted signatures and defining their relevance in order to establish the separation capacities between groups of authentic and simulated signatures. For the first time, numerical analyses of painted signatures have been obtained and are used to attribute their authorship to given artists. An in-depth discussion of the developed method constitutes the third and final part of this study. It evaluates the opportunities and constraints when applied by signature and handwriting experts in forensic science. A brief summary covering each chapter allows a rapid overview of the study and summarizes the aims and main themes of each chapter. These outlines presented below summarize the aims and main themes addressed in each chapter. Part I - Theory Chapter 1 exposes legal aspects surrounding the authentication of works of art by art experts. The definition of what is legally authentic, the quality and types of the experts that can express an opinion concerning the authorship of a specific painting, and standard deontological rules are addressed. The practices applied in Switzerland will be specifically dealt with. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the different scientific analyses that can be carried out on paintings (from the canvas to the top coat). Scientific examinations of works of art have become more common, as more and more museums equip themselves with laboratories, thus an understanding of their role in the art authentication process is vital. The added value that a signature expertise can have in comparison to other scientific techniques is also addressed. Chapter 3 provides a historical overview of the signature on paintings throughout the ages, in order to offer the reader an understanding of the origin of the signature on works of art and its evolution through time. An explanation is given on the transitions that the signature went through from the 15th century on and how it progressively took on its widely known modern form. Both this chapter and chapter 2 are presented to show the reader the rich sources of information that can be provided to describe a painting, and how the signature is one of these sources. Chapter 4 focuses on the different hypotheses the FHE must keep in mind when examining a painted signature, since a number of scenarios can be encountered when dealing with signatures on works of art. The different forms of signatures, as well as the variables that may have an influence on the painted signatures, are also presented. Finally, the current state of knowledge of the examination procedure of signatures in forensic science in general, and in particular for painted signatures, is exposed. The state of the art of the assessment of the authorship of signatures on paintings is established and discussed in light of the theoretical facets mentioned previously. Chapter 5 considers key elements that can have an impact on the FHE during his or her2 examinations. This includes a discussion on elements such as the skill, confidence and competence of an expert, as well as the potential bias effects he might encounter. A better understanding of elements surrounding handwriting examinations, to, in turn, better communicate results and conclusions to an audience, is also undertaken. Chapter 6 reviews the judicial acceptance of signature analysis in Courts and closes the state of the art section of this thesis. This chapter brings forward the current issues pertaining to the appreciation of this expertise by the non- forensic community, and will discuss the increasing number of claims of the unscientific nature of signature authentication. The necessity to aim for more scientific, comprehensive and transparent authentication methods will be discussed. The theoretical part of this thesis is concluded by a series of general recommendations for forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science, specifically for the expertise of signatures on paintings. These recommendations stem from the exhaustive review of the literature and the issues exposed from this review and can also be applied to the traditional examination of signatures (on paper). Part II - Experimental part Chapter 7 describes and defines the sampling, extraction and analysis phases of the research. The sampling stage of artists' signatures and their respective simulations are presented, followed by the steps that were undertaken to extract and determine sets of characteristics, specific to each artist, that describe their signatures. The method is based on a study of five artists and a group of individuals acting as forgers for the sake of this study. Finally, the analysis procedure of these characteristics to assess of the strength of evidence, and based on a Bayesian reasoning process, is presented. Chapter 8 outlines the results concerning both the artist and simulation corpuses after their optical observation, followed by the results of the analysis phase of the research. The feature selection process and the likelihood ratio evaluation are the main themes that are addressed. The discrimination power between both corpuses is illustrated through multivariate analysis. Part III - Discussion Chapter 9 discusses the materials, the methods, and the obtained results of the research. The opportunities, but also constraints and limits, of the developed method are exposed. Future works that can be carried out subsequent to the results of the study are also presented. Chapter 10, the last chapter of this thesis, proposes a strategy to incorporate the model developed in the last chapters into the traditional signature expertise procedures. Thus, the strength of this expertise is discussed in conjunction with the traditional conclusions reached by forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science. Finally, this chapter summarizes and advocates a list of formal recommendations for good practices for handwriting examiners. In conclusion, the research highlights the interdisciplinary aspect of signature examination of signatures on paintings. The current state of knowledge of the judicial quality of art experts, along with the scientific and historical analysis of paintings and signatures, are overviewed to give the reader a feel of the different factors that have an impact on this particular subject. The temperamental acceptance of forensic signature analysis in court, also presented in the state of the art, explicitly demonstrates the necessity of a better recognition of signature expertise by courts of law. This general acceptance, however, can only be achieved by producing high quality results through a well-defined examination process. This research offers an original approach to attribute a painted signature to a certain artist: for the first time, a probabilistic model used to measure the discriminative potential between authentic and simulated painted signatures is studied. The opportunities and limits that lie within this method of scientifically establishing the authorship of signatures on works of art are thus presented. In addition, the second key contribution of this work proposes a procedure to combine the developed method into that used traditionally signature experts in forensic science. Such an implementation into the holistic traditional signature examination casework is a large step providing the forensic, judicial and art communities with a solid-based reasoning framework for the examination of signatures on paintings. The framework and preliminary results associated with this research have been published (Montani, 2009a) and presented at international forensic science conferences (Montani, 2009b; Montani, 2012).
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Water is vital to humans and each of us needs at least 1.5 L of safe water a day to drink. Beginning as long ago as 1958 the World Health Organization (WHO) has published guidelines to help ensure water is safe to drink. Focused from the start on monitoring radionuclides in water, and continually cooperating with WHO, the International Standardization Organization (ISO) has been publishing standards on radioactivity test methods since 1978. As reliable, comparable and"fit for purpose" results are an essential requirement for any public health decision based on radioactivity measurements, international standards of tested and validated radionuclide test methods are an important tool for production of such measurements. This paper presents the ISO standards already published that could be used as normative references by testing laboratories in charge of radioactivity monitoring of drinking water as well as those currently under drafting and the prospect of standardized fast test methods in response to a nuclear accident.
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Rare diseases are typically chronic medical conditions of genetic etiology characterized by low prevalence and high complexity. Patients living with rare diseases face numerous physical, psychosocial and economic challenges that place them in the realm of health disparities. Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) is a rare endocrine disorder characterized by absent puberty and infertility. Little is known about the psychosocial impact of CHH on patients or their adherence to available treatments. This project aimed to examine the relationship between illness perceptions, depressive symptoms and adherence to treatment in men with CHH using the nursing-sensitive Health Promotion Model (HPM). A community based participatory research (CBPR) framework was employed as a model for empowering patients and overcoming health inequities. The study design used a sequential, explanatory mixed-methods approach. To reach dispersed CHH men, we used web-based recruitment and data collection (online survey). Subsequently, three patient focus groups were conducted to provide explanatory insights into the online survey (i.e. barriers to adherence, challenges of CHH, and coping/support) The online survey (n=101) revealed that CHH men struggle with adherence and often have long gaps in care (40% >1 year). They experience negative psychosocial consequences because of CHH and exhibit significantly increased rates of depression (p<0.001). Focus group participants (n=26) identified healthcare system, interpersonal, and personal factors as barriers to adherence. Further, CHH impacts quality of life and impedes psychosexual development in these men. The CHH men are active internet users who rely on the web forcrowdsourcing solutions and peer-to-peer support. Moreover, they are receptive to web-based interventions to address unmet health needs. This thesis contributes to nursing knowledge in several ways. First, it demonstrates the utility of the HPM as a valuable theoretical construct for understanding medication adherence and for assessing rare disease patients. Second, these data identify a range of unmet health needs that are targets for patient-centered interventions. Third, leveraging technology (high-tech) effectively extended the reach of nursing care while the CBPR approach and focus groups (high-touch) served as concurrent nursing interventions facilitating patient empowerment in overcoming health disparities. Last, these findings hold promise for developing e-health interventions to bridge identified shortfalls in care and activating patients for enhanced self- care and wellness -- Les maladies rares sont généralement de maladies chroniques d'étiologie génétique caractérisées par une faible prévalence et une haute complexité de traitement. Les patients atteints de maladies rares sont confrontés à de nombreux défis physiques, psychosociaux et économiques qui les placent dans une posture de disparité et d'inégalités en santé. L'hypogonadisme hypogonadotrope congénital (CHH) est un trouble endocrinien rare caractérisé par l'absence de puberté et l'infertilité. On sait peu de choses sur l'impact psychosocial du CHH sur les patients ou leur adhésion aux traitements disponibles. Ce projet vise à examiner la relation entre la perception de la maladie, les symptômes dépressifs et l'observance du traitement chez les hommes souffrant de CHH. Cette étude est modélisée à l'aide du modèle de la Promotion de la santé de Pender (HPM). Le cadre de l'approche communautaire de recherche participative (CBPR) a aussi été utilisé. La conception de l'étude a reposé sur une approche mixte séquentielle. Pour atteindre les hommes souffrant de CHH, un recrutement et une collecte de données ont été organisées électroniquement. Par la suite, trois groupes de discussion ont été menées avec des patients experts impliqués au sein d'organisations reliés aux maladies rares. Ils ont été invités à discuter certains éléments additionnels dont, les obstacles à l'adhésion au traitement, les défis généraux de vivre avec un CHH, et l'adaptation à la maladie en tenant compte du soutien disponible. Le sondage en ligne (n = 101) a révélé que les hommes souffrant de CHH ont souvent de longues périodes en rupture de soins (40% > 1 an). Ils vivent des conséquences psychosociales négatives en raison du CHH et présentent une augmentation significative des taux de dépression (p <0,001). Les participants aux groupes de discussion (n = 26) identifient dans l'ordre, les systèmes de soins de santé, les relations interpersonnelles, et des facteurs personnels comme des obstacles à l'adhésion. En outre, selon les participants, le CHH impacte négativement sur leur qualité de vie générale et entrave leur développement psychosexuel. Les hommes souffrant de CHH se considèrent être des utilisateurs actifs d'internet et comptent sur le web pour trouver des solutions pour trouver des ressources et y recherchent le soutien de leurs pairs (peer-to-peer support). En outre, ils se disent réceptifs à des interventions qui sont basées sur le web pour répondre aux besoins de santé non satisfaits. Cette thèse contribue à la connaissance des soins infirmiers de plusieurs façons. Tout d'abord, elle démontre l'utilité de la HPM comme une construction théorique utile pour comprendre l'adhésion aux traitements et pour l'évaluation des éléments de promotion de santé qui concernent les patients atteints de maladies rares. Deuxièmement, ces données identifient une gamme de besoins de santé non satisfaits qui sont des cibles pour des interventions infirmières centrées sur le patient. Troisièmement, méthodologiquement parlant, cette étude démontre que les méthodes mixtes sont appropriées aux études en soins infirmiers car elles allient les nouvelles technologies qui peuvent effectivement étendre la portée des soins infirmiers (« high-tech »), et l'approche CBPR par des groupes de discussion (« high-touch ») qui ont facilité la compréhension des difficultés que doivent surmonter les hommes souffrant de CHH pour diminuer les disparités en santé et augmenter leur responsabilisation dans la gestion de la maladie rare. Enfin, ces résultats sont prometteurs pour développer des interventions e-santé susceptibles de combler les lacunes dans les soins et l'autonomisation de patients pour une meilleure emprise sur les auto-soins et le bien-être.
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Vaatimusmäärittely on tärkeä vaihe ohjelmistotuotannossa, koska virheelliset ja puutteelliset asiakasvaatimukset vaikuttavat huomattavasti asiakkaan tyytymättömyyteen ohjelmistotuotteessa. Ohjelmistoinsinöörit käyttävät useita erilaisia menetelmiä ja tekniikoita asiakasvaatimusten kartoittamiseen. Erilaisia tekniikoita asiakasvaatimusten keräämiseen on olemassa valtava määrä.Diplomityön tavoitteena oli parantaa asiakasvaatimusten keräämisprosessia ohjelmistoprojekteissa. Asiakasvaatimusten kartoittamiseen käytettävien tekniikoiden arvioinnin perusteella kehitettiin parannettu asiakasvaatimusten keräämisprosessi. Kehitetyn prosessin testaamiseksi ja parantamiseksi järjestettiin ryhmätyöistuntoja liittyen todellisiin ohjelmistokehitysprojekteihin. Tuloksena vaatimusten kerääminen eri sidosryhmiltä nopeutui ja tehostui. Prosessi auttoi muodostamaan yleisen kuvan kehitettävästä ohjelmistosta, prosessin avulla löydettiin paljon ideoita ja prosessi tehosti ideoiden analysointia ja priorisointia. Prosessin suurin kehityskohde oli fasilitaattorin ja osallistujien valmistautumisessa ryhmätyöistuntoihin etukäteen.
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Gene turnover rates and the evolution of gene family sizes are important aspects of genome evolution. Here, we use curated sequence data of the major chemosensory gene families from Drosophila-the gustatory receptor, odorant receptor, ionotropic receptor, and odorant-binding protein families-to conduct a comparative analysis among families, exploring different methods to estimate gene birth and death rates, including an ad hoc simulation study. Remarkably, we found that the state-of-the-art methods may produce very different rate estimates, which may lead to disparate conclusions regarding the evolution of chemosensory gene family sizes in Drosophila. Among biological factors, we found that a peculiarity of D. sechellia's gene turnover rates was a major source of bias in global estimates, whereas gene conversion had negligible effects for the families analyzed herein. Turnover rates vary considerably among families, subfamilies, and ortholog groups although all analyzed families were quite dynamic in terms of gene turnover. Computer simulations showed that the methods that use ortholog group information appear to be the most accurate for the Drosophila chemosensory families. Most importantly, these results reveal the potential of rate heterogeneity among lineages to severely bias some turnover rate estimation methods and the need of further evaluating the performance of these methods in a more diverse sampling of gene families and phylogenetic contexts. Using branch-specific codon substitution models, we find further evidence of positive selection in recently duplicated genes, which attests to a nonneutral aspect of the gene birth-and-death process.
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Fluid mixing in mechanically agitated tanks is one of the major unit operations in many industries. Bubbly flows have been of interest among researchers in physics, medicine, chemistry and technology over the centuries. The aim of this thesis is to use advanced numerical methods for simulating microbubble in an aerated mixing tank. Main components of the mixing tank are a cylindrical vessel, a rotating Rushton turbine and the air nozzle. The objective of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is to predict fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer and chemical reactions. The CFD simulations of a turbulent bubbly flow are carried out in a cylindrical mixing tank using large eddy simulation (LES) and volume of fluid (VOF) method. The Rushton turbine induced flow is modeled by using a sliding mesh method. Numerical results are used to describe the bubbly flows in highly complex liquid flow. Some of the experimental works related to turbulent bubbly flow in a mixing tank are briefly reported. Numerical simulations are needed to complete and interpret the results of the experimental work. Information given by numerical simulations has a major role in designing and scaling-up mixing tanks. The results of this work have been reported in the following scientific articles: ·Honkanen M., Koohestany A., Hatunen T., Saarenrinne P., Zamankhan P., Large eddy simulations and PIV experiments of a two-phase air-water mixer, in Proceedings of ASME Fluids Engineering Summer Conference (2005). ·Honkanen M., Koohestany A., Hatunen T., Saarenrinne P., Zamankhan P., Dynamical States of Bubbling in an Aerated Stirring Tank, submitted to J. Computational Physics.
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INTRODUCTION: Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) is a rare, genetic, reproductive endocrine disorder characterized by absent puberty and infertility. Limited information is available on the psychosocial impact of CHH and psychosexual development in these patients. AIM: The aim of this study was to determine the impact of CHH on psychosexual development in men on long-term treatment. METHODS: A sequential mixed methods explanatory design was used. First, an online survey (quantitative) was used to quantify the frequency of psychosexual problems among CHH men. Second, patient focus groups (qualitative) were conducted to explore survey findings in detail and develop a working model to guide potential nursing and interdisciplinary interventions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient characteristics, frequency of body shame, difficulty with intimate relationships, and never having been sexually active were assessed. Additionally, we collected subjective patient-reported outcomes regarding the impact of CHH on psychological/emotional well-being, intimate relationships, and sexual activity. RESULTS: A total of 101 CHH men on long-term treatment (>1 year) were included for the analysis of the online survey (mean age 37 ± 11 years, range 19-66, median 36). Half (52/101, 51%) of the men had been seen at a specialized academic center and 37/101 (37%) reported having had fertility-inducing treatment. A high percentage of CHH men experience psychosexual problems including difficulty with intimate relationships (70%) and body image concerns/body shame (94/101, 93%), and the percentage of men never having been sexually active is five times the rate in a reference group (26% vs. 5.4%, P < 0.001). Focus groups revealed persisting body shame and low self-esteem despite long-term treatment that has lasting impact on psychosexual functioning. CONCLUSIONS: CHH men frequently experience psychosexual problems that pose barriers to intimate relationships and initiating sexual activity. These lingering effects cause significant distress and are not ameliorated by long-term treatment. Psychosexual assessment in CHH men with appropriate psychological support and treatment should be warranted in these patients. Dwyer AA, Quinton R, Pitteloud N, and Morin D. Psychosexual development in men with congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism on long-term treatment: A mixed methods study. Sex Med 2015;3:32-41.
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Main purpose of this thesis is to introduce a new lossless compression algorithm for multispectral images. Proposed algorithm is based on reducing the band ordering problem to the problem of finding a minimum spanning tree in a weighted directed graph, where set of the graph vertices corresponds to multispectral image bands and the arcs’ weights have been computed using a newly invented adaptive linear prediction model. The adaptive prediction model is an extended unification of 2–and 4–neighbour pixel context linear prediction schemes. The algorithm provides individual prediction of each image band using the optimal prediction scheme, defined by the adaptive prediction model and the optimal predicting band suggested by minimum spanning tree. Its efficiency has been compared with respect to the best lossless compression algorithms for multispectral images. Three recently invented algorithms have been considered. Numerical results produced by these algorithms allow concluding that adaptive prediction based algorithm is the best one for lossless compression of multispectral images. Real multispectral data captured from an airplane have been used for the testing.
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Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a well-established method for geophysical characterization and has shown potential for monitoring geologic CO2 sequestration, due to its sensitivity to electrical resistivity contrasts generated by liquid/gas saturation variability. In contrast to deterministic inversion approaches, probabilistic inversion provides the full posterior probability density function of the saturation field and accounts for the uncertainties inherent in the petrophysical parameters relating the resistivity to saturation. In this study, the data are from benchtop ERT experiments conducted during gas injection into a quasi-2D brine-saturated sand chamber with a packing that mimics a simple anticlinal geological reservoir. The saturation fields are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of the measured data and compared to independent saturation measurements from light transmission through the chamber. Different model parameterizations are evaluated in terms of the recovered saturation and petrophysical parameter values. The saturation field is parameterized (1) in Cartesian coordinates, (2) by means of its discrete cosine transform coefficients, and (3) by fixed saturation values in structural elements whose shape and location is assumed known or represented by an arbitrary Gaussian Bell structure. Results show that the estimated saturation fields are in overall agreement with saturations measured by light transmission, but differ strongly in terms of parameter estimates, parameter uncertainties and computational intensity. Discretization in the frequency domain (as in the discrete cosine transform parameterization) provides more accurate models at a lower computational cost compared to spatially discretized (Cartesian) models. A priori knowledge about the expected geologic structures allows for non-discretized model descriptions with markedly reduced degrees of freedom. Constraining the solutions to the known injected gas volume improved estimates of saturation and parameter values of the petrophysical relationship. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This report provides information on selected summary results of the National Survey of Noncommunicable Diseases in Seychelles in 2013‐2014 (Seychelles Heart Study IV). The survey is also referred shortly as the "2013 Survey" in this report. Overall crude results were reported in a comprehensive report in November 2014. Further detailed analyses and recommendations on particular topics will be performed separately.
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Reaching a consensus in terms of interchangeability and utility (i.e., disease detection/monitoring) of a medical device is the eventual aim of repeatability and agreement studies. The aim of the tolerance and relative utility indices described in this report is to provide a methodology to compare change in clinical measurement noise between different populations (repeatability) or measurement methods (agreement), so as to highlight problematic areas. No longitudinal data are required to calculate these indices. Both indices establish a metric of least to most effected across all parameters to facilitate comparison. If validated, these indices may prove useful tools when combining reports and forming the consensus required in the validation process for software updates and new medical devices.
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The purpose of the research is to define practical profit which can be achieved using neural network methods as a prediction instrument. The thesis investigates the ability of neural networks to forecast future events. This capability is checked on the example of price prediction during intraday trading on stock market. The executed experiments show predictions of average 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes’ prices based on data of one day and made by two different types of forecasting systems. These systems are based on the recurrent neural networks and back propagation neural nets. The precision of the predictions is controlled by the absolute error and the error of market direction. The economical effectiveness is estimated by a special trading system. In conclusion, the best structures of neural nets are tested with data of 31 days’ interval. The best results of the average percent of profit from one transaction (buying + selling) are 0.06668654, 0.188299453, 0.349854787 and 0.453178626, they were achieved for prediction periods 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. The investigation can be interesting for the investors who have access to a fast information channel with a possibility of every-minute data refreshment.