1000 resultados para Previsão com Metodologia de Bonx-Jenkis
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INTRODUÇÃO: O diagnóstico da situação do aleitamento materno em populações é necessário para a definição de metas e avaliação de programas de promoção e apoio a esta prática. Neste sentido, testou-se a viabilidade de realizar tal diagnóstico concomitante à Campanha Nacional de Multivacinação, no Município de Botucatu, SP, Brasil. MÉTODO: Utilizou-se um questionário simplificado (3 questões tipo sim/ não) para estudar a alimentação atual de 1.550 crianças menores de um ano (91,8% de cobertura) que compareceram aos postos de vacinação, em 19 de agosto de 1995. As medianas e freqüências das três categorias de aleitamento materno foram calculadas pela técnica de análise de probitos. RESULTADOS: As medianas obtidas foram: aleitamento materno exclusivo = 17 dias (IC: 4,6 - 28,7); aleitamento materno completo = 64 dias (IC: 53,0 - 74,5) e aleitamento materno = 167 dias (IC:153,7 - 182,2). O bom ajuste dos três modelos foi evidenciado pelos valores de R² e pelos testes de Kolmogorov-Smirnov (p < 0,05). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados confirmaram a necessidade do programa no município. A metodologia simplificada revelou-se viável. Recomenda-se sua utilização na monitorização da tendência do aleitamento materno e em estudos sobre o impacto de intervenções.
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Estudou-se em condições de campo, a previsão de picos populacionais de adultos de Piezodorus guildinii (West.), Nezara viridula (L.) e Euschistus heros (Fabr.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), por meio de um modelo de graus-dia. Considerando-se o desenvolvimento do ciclo biológico, observou-se que mais de 70% da emergência dos adultos de P. guildinii, N. viridula e E. heros ocorreu depois de terem sido acumulados em média 307,7; 753,8 e 370,3 graus-dia respectivamente, sendo as diferenças entre a data prevista e a observada de 0-3 dias para P. guildinii e N. viridula e 5-6 dias E. heros.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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OBJETIVO: Construir uma rede neural artificial para auxiliar os gestores de restaurantes universitários na previsão de refeições diárias. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi desenvolvido a partir do levantamento de oito variáveis que influenciam o número de refeições diárias servidas no restaurante universitário. Utiliza-se o algoritmo de treinamento Backpropagation. Os resultados por meio da rede são comparados com os da série estudada e com resultados da estimação por média aritmética simples. RESULTADOS: A rede proposta acompanha as inúmeras alterações que ocorrem no número de refeições diárias do restaurante universitário. em 73% dos dias analisados, o método das redes neurais artificiais apresenta uma taxa de acerto maior do que o método da média aritmética simples. CONCLUSÃO: A rede neural artificial mostrou-se mais adequada para a previsão do número de refeições do que a metodologia de média simples ou quando a decisão do número de refeições é feita de forma subjetiva, sem critérios científicos.
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Os levantamentos epidemiológicos são importantes para o conhecimento da prevalência e tipologia das doenças bucais, podendo-se a partir dos dados coletados, planejar, executar e avaliar ações de saúde. É necessário, no entanto, que haja rigor metodológico que garanta reprodutibilidade, validade e confiabilidade, e que haja uniformidade de procedimentos para permitir comparações nacionais e internacionais. A iniciativa da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) na assessoria à realização de levantamentos tem se mostrado extremamente útil, estimulando o estabelecimento de padrões de procedimentos que podem ser utilizados em todos os países. em 1991 foi publicada a edição em português da terceira edição do Oral Health Surveys - basic methods, de 1987, um manual que objetiva fornecer instruções para a realização de levantamentos epidemiológicos e tal publicação passou a servir de base a estudos realizados em diversos locais do Brasil e do mundo. O objetivo deste trabalho, é analisar criticamente a metodologia para Levantamento Epidemiológico em Saúde Bucal da OMS, na tentativa de contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento da mesma. de acordo com a presente análise, foram encontrados pontos relevantes para consideração, referentes à amostragem, à calibração dos examinadores e aos critérios para a avaliação de saúde bucal e necessidades de tratamento. Concluiu-se, em nível de recomendação, que, devido ao caráter dinâmico do conhecimento científico e, levando-se em consideração as diferenças regionais com relação ao padrão de desenvolvimento das doenças bucais, as propostas de padronização de levantamentos devem ser periodicamente revisadas. É provável, ainda, que outros pontos importantes não tenham sido detectados nesta análise, tornando-se premente ampliar esta discussão para toda a comunidade odontológica.
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A rapid and efficient analytical method is presented for the quantitative analysis of 10 organochlorine pesticides in corn meal. The extraction and clean up steps are combined into one step by transferring the sample to a chromatographic column prepacked with alumina and silica gel. The pesticides are eluted with n-hexane-dichloromethane 9:1 (v/v) and the extracts analized by gas-liquid chromatography with electron capture detection, the average recoveries were between 78% and 98% and the detection limits were between 1 and 5 ng/g.
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The response surface methodology as a tool for assessing the production of alginate and polyhydroxybutirate by Azotobacter vinelandii. Alginate is a polysaccharide extracted from cell walls of brown algae and used in the food, pharmaceuticals and biotech industries. Production is concentrated on the cultivation of brown seaweed, but several bacteria of the genus Pseudomonas and Azotobacter produce alginate. The chemical structure of alginates produced by algae is similar to those synthesized by A. vinelandii. The bacteria also produce intracellular polymers such as polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), known as bioplastic. This work studied the simultaneous alginate and PHB production by A. vinelandii using sucrose and different parameters of fermentation in an orbital shaker. The optimal values for the production of these compounds were determined by the MSR. The first experiment was a 2(6-2) factorial design. The second was based on significant variables of the first, resulting in a full 3(3-0) factorial design. From the first to the second, an increase was observed in the PHB productivity from 12 to 45 mg g(-1) cell h(-1) and alginate from 100 to 1,600 mg g(-1) of cell h(-1). The productivity of both compounds was in the maximum incubation temperature of 62 degrees C, in the shortest time of incubation (18h) and the sucrose concentration, 11 g L(-1). In both experiments the PHB extracted presented purity of 94%.
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A coal deposit was studied at Sapopema (PR) in the upper part of the Tubarao Group. The eliptical deposit is made up by a single layer of 1.2 m mean thickness and lies at a depth of 380 to 700 m. The semi-variogram, using the spherical model, revealed a range of 1.5 km and no nugget effect. Area kriging estimation for a grid of 0.5 × 0.5 km showed a value of 50.121.750 ton, very close to the real reserve one. -from English summary
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This work presents an algorithm for the security control of electric power systems using control actions like generation reallocation, determined by sensitivity analysis (linearized model) and optimization by neural networks. The model is developed taking into account the dynamic network aspects. The preventive control methodology is developed by means of sensitivity analysis of the security margin related with the mechanical power of the system synchronous machines. The reallocation power in each machine is determined using neural networks. The neural network used in this work is of Hopfield type. These networks are dedicated electric circuits which simulate the constraint set and the objective function of an optimization problem. The advantage of using these networks is the higher speed in getting the solutions when compared to conventional optimization algorithms due to the great convergence rate of the process and the facility of the method parallelization. Then, the objectives are: formulate and investigate these networks implementations in determining. The generation reallocation in digital computers. Aiming to illustrate the proposed methodology an application considering a multi-machine system is presented.
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In this work was developed an alternative methodology to separation of aquatic organic matter (AOM) present in natural river waters. The process is based in temperature decreasing of the aqueous sample under controlled conditions that provoke the freezing of the sample and separation of the dark extract, not frozen and rich in organic matter. The results showed that speed of temperature decreasing exerts strongly influence in relative recovery of organic carbon, enrichment and time separation of the organic matter present in water samples. Elemental composition, infrared spectra and thermal analysis results showed that the alternative methodology is less aggressive possible in the attempt of maintaining the integrity of the sample.
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Human platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) was purified from lysates of clinically outdated human platelets by ionic exchange chromatography in CM-Sepharose. The eluated fraction was submitted to the Immunoblot/Slot Blot assay using anti-PDGF-AA and anti-PDGF-BB polyclonal antibodies and was evaluated as to its biological activity through the test of [H 3]-thymidine incorporation in NIH/3T3 cell line fibroblasts in culture. The Immunoblot/Slot Blot assay using anti-PDGF-AA and anti-PDGF-BB antibodies proved the presence of the PDGF in chromatographic cationic fraction. The comparison of biological activities between fiblobrast stimulation assay using recombinant PDGF-AB and partially purified PDGF was demonstrated in 165.796 and 157.567 cpm, respectively. This result, proved the potent mitogenic effect of partially purified PDGF and consequently their evidence about the wound healing activity.
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This paper presents and discusses Ménard Pressuremeter test results used to predict bearing capacity of pounded piles installed in a tropical sandy soil. Fifteen pre-bored pressuremeter tests were carried out at the Experimental Research Site from Unesp - Bauru up to 15 m depth, one test per meter. Several laboratory and in situ tests were carried out in this research site as well as load tests on plates and on piles. Pressuremeter test results were firstly analyzed to determine geotechnical soil parameters based on empirical methods, emphasizing the estimative of the earth pressure coefficient at rest (K0). After that, bearing capacity prediction of pounded piles with 4 m, 7 m and 10 m were made and compared with test results from instrumented load tests. Pressuremeter test results allowed a very good estimative of bearing capacity for the pile with 4 m length and underestimated in 25,7% and 20,0% the bearing capacity for the pile with 7 and 10 m length, respectively. The back analysis of the test results suggests that the appropriate value for the bearing capacity factor for the tested soil-pile system on this soil is equal to 2.
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Haematological investigation is an important part of disease diagnosis. The techniques used for mammals are generally applicable for fishes with slight modification. The presence of nucleated erythrocytes and thrombocytes in fish may cause some confusion in the identification of blood cells, mainly in total leukocytes count. This work evaluated two different methods (direct and indirect) of leukocytes counting. Specimens of tilapia were divided randomly into four groups of 48 fish each. Each group was further randomized into three replicate experiments of 16 fish per replicate in 40 L aquarium and maintained for 10 days. Counting of leukocytes in peripheral blood was determined in six fishes per group at the times: 0, 3, 7 and 10 days. The direct method in Neubauer chamber showed a large dispersion of data in regard to the average, the opposite was observed in indirect method determined in blood smears that showed more homogeneity among groups. Due to this factor the indirect method can be considered more accurate than the direct method for counting leukocytes in fishes.
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Ketoconazole is a synthetic broad-spectrum oral and topical antifungal drug derived from imidazole, effective in the treatment of superficial mycoses and systemic infections. In this study we have tested several methods to analyze ketoconazole in various pharmaceutical products containing this drug, employing techniques such as UV and IR spectrophotometry and thermal analysis. The results showed that UV spectrophotometry is a fast, practical and economical method and indicated that other methods, such as IR spectrophotometry and thermal analysis, could be good alternative methods for ketoconazole analysis in certain pharmaceutical forms.
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Soil flushing is an alternative remediation technology for soils contaminated with heavy metals, which the main contaminant removing process consists in percolating an extraction solution. This work aimed to use the response surface methodology to point out combinations among the parameters of the extraction solution (Na2EDTA concentration, volume e pH) in order to reduce the concentration of copper in a sandy soil to risk levels lower than the intervention levels for exposure scenarios adopted by the Environmental Company of Sao Paulo State. Thus, a series of tests in leaching columns were carried out using a Fluvisol artificially contaminated (1257,3 mg kg-1). The tests were conducted in triplicate and setup a central composite rotatable design with 15 different parameters combinations of the extraction solution and one replicate in the center point. Using 5% significance level, the adjusted model (R2 = 0,98) indicated combinations of Na2EDTA concentration, pH and volume of the extraction solution which allow reduction of copper concentration below levels reported by environmental agency of Sao Paulo State for industrial, residential, agricultural or maximum exposure scenarios.