Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Quantitative 3D strain analysis in analogue experiments: Integration of X-ray computed tomography and digital volume correlation techniques

The combination of scaled analogue experiments, material mechanics, X-ray computed tomography (XRCT) and Digital Volume Correlation techniques (DVC) is a powerful new tool not only to examine the 3 dimensional structure and kinematic evolution of complex deformation structures in scaled analogue experiments, but also to fully quantify their spatial strain distribution and complete strain history. Digital image correlation (DIC) is an important advance in quantitative physical modelling and helps to understand non-linear deformation processes. Optical non-intrusive (DIC) techniques enable the quantification of localised and distributed deformation in analogue experiments based either on images taken through transparent sidewalls (2D DIC) or on surface views (3D DIC). X-ray computed tomography (XRCT) analysis permits the non-destructive visualisation of the internal structure and kinematic evolution of scaled analogue experiments simulating tectonic evolution of complex geological structures. The combination of XRCT sectional image data of analogue experiments with 2D DIC only allows quantification of 2D displacement and strain components in section direction. This completely omits the potential of CT experiments for full 3D strain analysis of complex, non-cylindrical deformation structures. In this study, we apply digital volume correlation (DVC) techniques on XRCT scan data of “solid” analogue experiments to fully quantify the internal displacement and strain in 3 dimensions over time. Our first results indicate that the application of DVC techniques on XRCT volume data can successfully be used to quantify the 3D spatial and temporal strain patterns inside analogue experiments. We demonstrate the potential of combining DVC techniques and XRCT volume imaging for 3D strain analysis of a contractional experiment simulating the development of a non-cylindrical pop-up structure. Furthermore, we discuss various options for optimisation of granular materials, pattern generation, and data acquisition for increased resolution and accuracy of the strain results. Three-dimensional strain analysis of analogue models is of particular interest for geological and seismic interpretations of complex, non-cylindrical geological structures. The volume strain data enable the analysis of the large-scale and small-scale strain history of geological structures.

Why Monte Carlo Simulations are Inferences and not Experiments

Monte Carlo simulations arrive at their results by introducing randomness, sometimes derived from a physical randomizing device. Nonetheless, we argue, they open no new epistemic channels beyond that already employed by traditional simulations: the inference by ordinary argumentation of conclusions from assumptions built into the simulations. We show that Monte Carlo simulations cannot produce knowledge other than by inference, and that they resemble other computer simulations in the manner in which they derive their conclusions. Simple examples of Monte Carlo simulations are analysed to identify the underlying inferences.

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Transport of iodide in structured clay–loam soil under maize during irrigation experiments analyzed using HYDRUS model

Transport of radioactive iodide 131I− in a structured clay loam soil under maize in a final growing phase was monitored during five consecutive irrigation experiments under ponding. Each time, 27 mm of water were applied. The water of the second experiment was spiked with 200 MBq of 131I− tracer. Its activity was monitored as functions of depth and time with Geiger-Müller (G-M) detectors in 11 vertically installed access tubes. The aim of the study was to widen our current knowledge of water and solute transport in unsaturated soil under different agriculturally cultivated settings. It was supposed that the change in 131I− activity (or counting rate) is proportional to the change in soil water content. Rapid increase followed by a gradual decrease in 131I− activity occurred at all depths and was attributed to preferential flow. The iodide transport through structured soil profile was simulated by the HYDRUS 1D model. The model predicted relatively deep percolation of iodide within a short time, in a good agreement with the observed vertical iodide distribution in soil. We found that the top 30 cm of the soil profile is the most vulnerable layer in terms of water and solute movement, which is the same depth where the root structure of maize can extend.

Evaluation of Cage Designs and Feeding Regimes for Honey Bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Laboratory Experiments

The aim of this study was to improve cage systems for maintaining adult honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) workers under in vitro laboratory conditions. To achieve this goal, we experimentally evaluated the impact of different cages, developed by scientists of the international research network COLOSS (Prevention of honey bee COlony LOSSes), on the physiology and survival of honey bees. We identified three cages that promoted good survival of honey bees. The bees from cages that exhibited greater survival had relatively lower titers of deformed wing virus, suggesting that deformed wing virus is a significant marker reflecting stress level and health status of the host. We also determined that a leak- and drip-proof feeder was an integral part of a cage system and a feeder modified from a 20-ml plastic syringe displayed the best result in providing steady food supply to bees. Finally, we also demonstrated that the addition of protein to the bees' diet could significantly increase the level ofvitellogenin gene expression and improve bees' survival. This international collaborative study represents a critical step toward improvement of cage designs and feeding regimes for honey bee laboratory experiments.

Using Factorial Surveys and Stated Choice Experiments to Investigate Discriminatory Attitudes and Preferences

Empirical research on discriminatory attitudes and behaviour grapples with the social undesirability of its object. In many studies using regular survey methods, estimates are biased, and the social context of discrimination is not taken into account. Several methods have been developed, especially to deal with the first problem. In this regard, the estimation of the ‘true value’ of discriminatory attitudes is at the centre of interest. However, methodological contributions focusing on the social context of attitude communication and discriminatory behaviour, as well as the correlation between both, are rare. We present two experimental methods which address those issues: factorial surveys and stated choice experiments. In a first study, the usefulness of factorial surveys is demonstrated with data on German anti-Semitism (N=279). We show that the rate of approval with anti-Semitic statements increases if (a) respondents are told that the majority of fellows agree with such statements, (b) the term “Jews” is replaced by the term “Israelis”, and (c) reference to the Holocaust is made. Apart from the main effects of these experimental factors, significant interaction effects regarding the political attitudes and social status of respondents are observed. In a second study, a stated choice experiment on the purchase of olive oil and tomatoes was conducted in Germany (N=440). We find that respondents prefer Italian and Dutch products (control treatment) compared to Israeli and Palestinian ones (discrimination treatments). There are no significant differences between preferences for a so called ‘Peace product’ (which is produced jointly by Israelis and Palestinians) and products from Italy as well as the Netherlands. Yet, taking discriminatory attitudes (anti-Semitic and anti-Arabic attitudes) into account, a strong correlation between those attitudes and stated behaviour (purchase of Israeli, Palestinian and jointly produced products) can be found. This adds support to the hypothesis that discriminatory attitudes hold behavioural consequences.

CO Oxidation on Pt(100): New Insights based on Combined Voltammetric, Microscopic and Spectroscopic Experiments

We present an experimental study of the CO electro-oxidation on Pt(100)-(1 × 1) electrodes employing electrochemical methods in combination with in situ scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and shell-isolated nanoparticle enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SHINERS). We discussed the nature and stability of the active sites in the preignition region in the presence of dissolved CO (COb) and monitored substrate structure changes during the COb electro-oxidation process. We corroborated that the electro-oxidation kinetics is determined decisively by the history of CO adlayer formation. A new mechanism was proposed for Pt(100) electrode deactivation in the preignition region after excursion of electrode potential to COb ignition region. We believe that this mechanism takes place on Pt surfaces independently on their crystallographic orientation.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

The Martian Gas-Analytic Package for the Landing Platform Experiments of the ExoMars 2018

The paper describes the architecture of the Martian Gas Analytic Package, which is proposed for the Russian ExoMars Lander 2018.