A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Kidney side population reveals multilineage potential and renal functional capacity but also cellular heterogeneity

Side population (SP) cells in the adult kidney are proposed to represent a progenitor population. However, the size, origin, phenotype, and potential of the kidney SP has been controversial. In this study, the SP fraction of embryonic and adult kidneys represented 0.1 to 0.2% of the total viable cell population. The immunophenotype and the expression profile of kidney SP cells was distinct from that of bone marrow SP cells, suggesting that they are a resident nonhematopoietic cell population. Affymetrix expression profiling implicated a role for Notch signaling in kidney SP cells and was used to identify markers of kidney SP. Localization by in situ hybridization confirmed a primarily proximal tubule location, supporting the existence of a tubular niche, but also revealed considerable heterogeneity, including the presence of renal macrophages. Adult kidney SP cells demonstrated multilineage differentiation in vitro, whereas microinjection into mouse metanephroi showed that SP cells had a 3.5- to 13-fold greater potential to contribute to developing kidney than non-SP main population cells. However, although reintroduction of SP cells into an Adriamycin-nephropathy model reduced albuminuria:creatinine ratios, this was without significant tubular integration, suggesting a humoral role for SP cells in renal repair. The heterogeneity of the renal SP highlights the need for further fractionation to distinguish the cellular subpopulations that are responsible for the observed multilineage capacity and transdifferentiative and humoral activities.

Sampling and measurement methods for a study of childhood refractive error in a UK population

Background There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. Methods Children aged 6–7 years and 12–13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. Results 399 (57%) of 6–7 years and 669 (60%) of 12–13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. Conclusions The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data.

Typical kernel size and number of sparse random matrices over Galois fields: a statistical physics approach

Using methods of statistical physics, we study the average number and kernel size of general sparse random matrices over GF(q), with a given connectivity profile, in the thermodynamical limit of large matrices. We introduce a mapping of GF(q) matrices onto spin systems using the representation of the cyclic group of order q as the q-th complex roots of unity. This representation facilitates the derivation of the average kernel size of random matrices using the replica approach, under the replica symmetric ansatz, resulting in saddle point equations for general connectivity distributions. Numerical solutions are then obtained for particular cases by population dynamics. Similar techniques also allow us to obtain an expression for the exact and average number of random matrices for any general connectivity profile. We present numerical results for particular distributions.

The vesicle size of DDA:TDB liposomal adjuvants plays a role in the cell-mediated immune response but has no significant effect on antibody production

The use of cationic liposomes as experimental adjuvants for subunit peptide of protein vaccines is well documented. Recently the cationic liposome CAF01, composed of dimethyldioctadecylammonium (DDA) and trehalose dibehenate (TDB), has entered Phase I clinical trials for use in a tuberculosis (TB) vaccine. CAF01 liposomes are a heterogeneous population with a mean vesicle size of 500 nm; a strong retention of antigen at the injection site and a Th1-biassed immune response are noted. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether CAF01 liposomes of significantly different vesicle sizes exhibited altered pharmacokinetics in vivo and cellular uptake with activation in vitro. Furthermore, the immune response against the TB antigen Ag85B-ESAT-6 was followed when various sized CAF01 liposomes were used as vaccine adjuvants. The results showed no differences in vaccine (liposome or antigen) draining from the injection site, however, significant differences in the movement of liposomes to the popliteal lymph node were noted. Liposome uptake by THP-1 vitamin D3 stimulated macrophage-like cells did not show a liposome size-dependent pattern of uptake. Finally, whilst there were no significant differences in the IgG1/2 regardless of the liposome size used as a delivery vehicle for Ag85B-ESAT-6, vesicle size has a size dependent effect on cell proliferation and IL-10 production with larger liposomes (in excess of 2 µm) promoting the highest proliferation and lowest IL-10 responses, yet vesicles of ~500 nm promoting higher IFN-? cytokine production from splenocytes and higher IL-1ß at the site of injection.

Population pharmacokinetics of single-dose intravenous paracetamol in children

Background To determine the pharmacokinetics (PK) of a new i.v. formulation of paracetamol (Perfalgan) in children ≤15 yr of age. Methods After obtaining written informed consent, children under 16 yr of age were recruited to this study. Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15, 30 min, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 h after administration of a weight-dependent dose of i.v. paracetamol. Paracetamol concentration was measured using a validated high-performance liquid chromatographic assay with ultraviolet detection method, with a lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) of 900 pg on column and an intra-day coefficient of variation of 14.3% at the LLOQ. Population PK analysis was performed by non-linear mixed-effect modelling using NONMEM. Results One hundred and fifty-nine blood samples from 33 children aged 1.8–15 yr, weight 13.7–56 kg, were analysed. Data were best described by a two-compartment model. Only body weight as a covariate significantly improved the goodness of fit of the model. The final population models for paracetamol clearance (CL), V1 (central volume of distribution), Q (inter-compartmental clearance), and V2 (peripheral volume of distribution) were: 16.51×(WT/70)0.75, 28.4×(WT/70), 11.32×(WT/70)0.75, and 13.26×(WT/70), respectively (CL, Q in litres per hour, WT in kilograms, and V1 and V2 in litres). Conclusions In children aged 1.8–15 yr, the PK parameters for i.v. paracetamol were not influenced directly by age but were by total body weight and, using allometric size scaling, significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

Firm growth and firm size

This article analyses the growth rates of the complete population of UK-registered firms for the period 2001 to 2005. We estimate Gibrat's law – that growth rates are independent of firm size – by deciles of the firm size distribution. Whether we are able to reject Gibrat's law varies across deciles. We also show how estimates vary according to the measure of firm size, time period and sample selection.

The normal optic nerve variations in an optometric population:Possible ocular and systemic influences

Early detection of glaucoma relies on a detailed knowledge of how the normal optic nerve (ONH) varies within the population. The purpose of this study focused on two main areas; 1. To explore the optic nerve head appearance in the normal optometric population and compare the south Asian (principally Pakistani) with the European white population, correcting for possible ocular and non-ocular influences in a multiple regression model. The main findings were: • The optic discs of the South Asian (SA) and White European (WE) populations were not statistically different in size. The SA group possessed discs with increased cupping and thinner neuro-retinal rims (NRR) compared with the WE group. The SA group also demonstrated a more vertically oval shape than the WE population. These differences were significant at the p<0.01 level. • The upper limits of inter-eye asymmetry were: ≤0.2 for cup to disc area ratio, and 3mmHg for intra-ocular pressure (IOP) for both ethnic groups and this did not increase with age. IOP asymmetry did not vary with gender, ethnicity or a family history of glaucoma and was independent of ONH asymmetry. ONH and IOP asymmetry are therefore independent risk factors when screening for glaucoma for both ethnic groups. 2. To investigate the validity of the ISNT rule: inferior> superior> nasal> temporal NRR thickness in the optometric population. The main findings were: • As disc size increased the disc become rounder and less vertically oval in shape. Vertically oval discs had thicker superior and inferior NRRs and thinner nasal and temporal NRRs compared with rounder disc shapes due to cup shape being independent of disc shape. Vertically oval discs were therefore more likely to obey the ISNT rule than larger rounder discs. • The ISNT rule has a low adherence in our sample of normal eyes (5.7%). However, by removing the nasal sector to become the IST rule, 74.5% of normal eyes obeyed. SA eyes and female gender were more likely to obey the ISNT rule due to increased disc ovality. The IST rule is independent of disc shape and therefore more suitable for assessing discs from both ethnic backgrounds. Obeying the ISNT rule or IST rule was not related to disc or cup size.

Accuracy and optimal sampling in Monte Carlo solution of population balance equations

Implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation for the solution of population balance equations (PBEs) requires choice of initial sample number (N0), number of replicates (M), and number of bins for probability distribution reconstruction (n). It is found that Squared Hellinger Distance, H2, is a useful measurement of the accuracy of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, and can be related directly to N0, M, and n. Asymptotic approximations of H2 are deduced and tested for both one-dimensional (1-D) and 2-D PBEs with coalescence. The central processing unit (CPU) cost, C, is found in a power-law relationship, C= aMNb0, with the CPU cost index, b, indicating the weighting of N0 in the total CPU cost. n must be chosen to balance accuracy and resolution. For fixed n, M × N0 determines the accuracy of MC prediction; if b > 1, then the optimal solution strategy uses multiple replications and small sample size. Conversely, if 0 < b < 1, one replicate and a large initial sample size is preferred. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 2394–2402, 2015

The enantioselective population pharmacokinetics of intravenous ketorolac in children using a stereoselective assay suitable for microanalysis

Objective: To describe the effect of age and body size on enantiomer selective pharmacokinetic (PK) of intravenous ketorolac in children using a microanalytical assay. Methods: Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15 and 30 min and at 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12 h after a weight-dependent dose of ketorolac. Enantiomer concentration was measured using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method. Non-linear mixed-effect modelling was used to assess PK parameters. Key findings: Data from 11 children (1.7–15.6 years, weight 10.7–67.4 kg) were best described by a two-compartment model for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Only weight (WT) significantly improved the goodness of fit. The final population models were CL = 1.5 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 8.2 × (WT/46), Q = 3.4 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 7.9 × (WT/46), CL = 2.98 × (WT/46), V1 = 13.2 × (WT/46), Q = 2.8 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 51.5 × (WT/46), and CL = 1.1 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 4.9 × (WT/46), Q = 1.7 × (WT/46)0.75 and V2 = 6.3 × (WT/46)for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Conclusions: Only body weight influenced the PK parameters for R(+) and S(−) ketorolac. Using allometric size scaling significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

The continuum of psychotic symptoms in the general population:a cross-national study

OBJECTIVE: To identify the cross-national prevalence of psychotic symptoms in the general population and to analyze their impact on health status. METHOD: The sample was composed of 256,445 subjects (55.9% women), from nationally representative samples of 52 countries worldwide participating in the World Health Organization's World Health Survey. Standardized and weighted prevalence of psychotic symptoms were calculated in addition to the impact on health status as assessed by functioning in multiple domains. RESULTS: Overall prevalences for specific symptoms ranged from 4.80% (SE = 0.14) for delusions of control to 8.37% (SE = 0.20) for delusions of reference and persecution. Prevalence figures varied greatly across countries. All symptoms of psychosis produced a significant decline in health status after controlling for potential confounders. There was a clear change in health impact between subjects not reporting any symptom and those reporting at least one symptom (effect size of 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of the presence of at least one psychotic symptom has a wide range worldwide varying as much as from 0.8% to 31.4%. Psychotic symptoms signal a problem of potential public health concern, independent of the presence of a full diagnosis of psychosis, as they are common and are related to a significant decrement in health status. The presence of at least one psychotic symptom is related to a significant poorer health status, with a regular linear decrement in health depending on the number of symptoms.

The commercial bark harvest of the African cherry (Prunus africana) on Mount Oku, Cameroon: Effects on traditional uses and population dynamics

Bark extracts of the African cherry (Prunus africana) are used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia. This study examined the effects of commercial bark harvest on population dynamics in the Kilum-Ijim Forest Preserve on Mount Oku, Cameroon and on traditional uses. P. africana is valued for its timber and as fuel although its greatest value is as a traditional medicine for human and animal ailments. Harvest has depleted the resource and has eroded traditional forest protection practices. I constructed matrix models to examine the effects of bark harvest on population structure and on population dynamics in harvested and unharvested populations. Harvesting simulations examined the effect on the population growth rate (λ) with differing levels of mortality of harvest-sized and large trees and differing harvest frequencies. Size class frequencies for the entire forest decreased in a reverse j-shaped curve, indicating adequate recruitment in the absence of harvest. Individual plots showed differences from the overall forest data, suggesting effects of natural and man-made perturbations, particularly due to bark harvest. One plot (harvested in the 1980s) showed a temporal difference in λ and fluctuated around one, due to alternating high and low fruiting years; other unharvested plots showed smaller temporal differences. Harvested plots (harvested illegally in 1997) had values of λ less than one and showed small temporal differences. The control plot also showed λ less than one, due to poor recruitment in the closed canopy forest. The value of λ for the combined data was 0.9931 suggesting a slightly declining population. The elasticity matrix for the combined data indicated the population growth rate was most sensitive to the survival of the large reproductive trees (42.5% of the elasticity). In perturbation analyses, reducing the survival of the large trees caused the largest reductions in λ. Simulations involving harvesting frequency indicated λ returns to pre-harvest conditions if trees are re-harvested after 10–15 years, but only if the large trees are left unharvested. Management scenarios suggest harvest can be sustainable if seedlings and small saplings are planted in the forest and actively managed, although large-scale plantations may be the only feasible option to meet market demand. ^

Medical advice, diabetes self-management, and health outcomes of a multi-ethnic population from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007--2008

Diabetes self-management, an essential component of diabetes care, includes weight control practices and requires guidance from providers. Minorities are likely to have less access to quality health care than White non-Hispanics (WNH) (American College of Physicians-American Society of Internal Medicine, 2000). Medical advice received and understood may differ by race/ethnicity as a consequence of the patient-provider communication process; and, may affect diabetes self-management. ^ This study examined the relationships among participants’ report of: (1) medical advice given; (2) diabetes self-management, and; (3) health outcomes for Mexican-Americans (MA) and Black non-Hispanics (BNH) as compared to WNH (reference group) using data available through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for the years 2007–2008. This study was a secondary, single point analysis. Approximately 30 datasets were merged; and, the quality and integrity was assured by analysis of frequency, range and quartiles. The subjects were extracted based on the following inclusion criteria: belonging to either the MA, BNH or WNH categories; 21 years or older; responded yes to being diagnosed with diabetes. A final sample size of 654 adults [MA (131); BNH (223); WNH (300)] was used for the analyses. The findings revealed significant statistical differences in medical advice reported given. BNH [OR = 1.83 (1.16, 2.88), p = 0.013] were more likely than WNH to report being told to reduce fat or calories. Similarly, BNH [OR = 2.84 (1.45, 5.59), p = 0.005] were more likely than WNH to report that they were told to increase their physical activity. Mexican-Americans were less likely to self-monitor their blood glucose than WNH [OR = 2.70 (1.66, 4.38), p<0.001]. There were differences among ethnicities for reporting receiving recent diabetes education. Black, non-Hispanics were twice as likely to report receiving diabetes education than WNH [OR = 2.29 (1.36, 3.85), p = 0.004]. Medical advice reported given and ethnicity/race, together, predicted several health outcomes. Having recent diabetes education increased the likelihood of performing several diabetes self-management behaviors, independent of race. ^ These findings indicate a need for patient-provider communication and care to be assessed for effectiveness and, the importance of ongoing diabetes education for persons with diabetes.^

The influence of body size on the ecology of coastal fish predators in the Bahamas

Body size is a fundamental structural characteristic of organisms, determining critical life history and physiological traits, and influencing population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. For my dissertation, I focused on effects of body size on habitat use and diet of important coastal fish predators, as well as their influence on faunal communities in Bahamian wetlands. First, using acoustic telemetry and stable isotope analysis, I identified high variability in movement patterns and habitat use among individuals within a gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and schoolmaster snapper (L. apodus) population. This intrapopulation variation was not explained by body size, but by individual behavior in habitat use. Isotope values differed between individuals that moved further distances and individuals that stayed close to their home sites, suggesting movement differences were related to specific patterns of foraging behavior. Subsequently, while investigating diet of schoolmaster snapper over a two-year period using stomach content and stable isotope analyses, I also found intrapopulation diet variation, mostly explained by differences in size class, individual behavior and temporal variability. I then developed a hypothesis-testing framework examining intrapopulation niche variation between size classes using stable isotopes. This framework can serve as baseline to categorize taxonomic or functional groupings into specific niche shift scenarios, as well as to help elucidate underlying mechanisms causing niche shifts in certain size classes. Finally, I examined the effect of different-sized fish predators on epifaunal community structure in shallow seagrass beds using exclusion experiments at two spatial scales. Overall, I found that predator effects were rather weak, with predator size and spatial scale having no impact on the community. Yet, I also found some evidence of strong interactions on particular common snapper prey. As Bahamian wetlands are increasingly threatened by human activities (e.g., overexploitation, habitat degradation), an enhanced knowledge of the ecology of organisms inhabiting these systems is crucial for developing appropriate conservation and management strategies. My dissertation research contributed to this effort by providing critical information about the resource use of important Bahamian fish predators, as well as their effect on faunal seagrass communities.

Intra-Population Variation in Activity Ranges, Diel Patterns, Movement Rates, and Habitat Use of American Alligators in a Subtropical Estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intra-population variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.