An experimental evaluation of prediction models for the mechanical behavior of unreinforced, lime-mortar masonry under compression

This paper contributes to the understanding of lime-mortar masonry strength and deformation (which determine durability and allowable stresses/stiffness in design codes) by measuring the mechanical properties of brick bound with lime and lime-cement mortars. Based on the regression analysis of experimental results, models to estimate lime-mortar masonry compressive strength are proposed (less accurate for hydrated lime (CL90s) masonry due to the disparity between mortar and brick strengths). Also, three relationships between masonry elastic modulus and its compressive strength are proposed for cement-lime; hydraulic lime (NHL3.5 and 5); and hydrated/feebly hydraulic lime masonries respectively.

Disagreement between the experimental results and former mathematical prediction models (proposed primarily for cement masonry) is caused by a lack of provision for the significant deformation of lime masonry and the relative changes in strength and stiffness between mortar and brick over time (at 6 months and 1 year, the NHL 3.5 and 5 mortars are often stronger than the brick). Eurocode 6 provided the best predictions for the compressive strength of lime and cement-lime masonry based on the strength of their components. All models vastly overestimated the strength of CL90s masonry at 28 days however, Eurocode 6 became an accurate predictor after 6 months, when the mortar had acquired most of its final strength and stiffness.

The experimental results agreed with former stress-strain curves. It was evidenced that mortar strongly impacts masonry deformation, and that the masonry stress/strain relationship becomes increasingly non-linear as mortar strength lowers. It was also noted that, the influence of masonry stiffness on its compressive strength becomes smaller as the mortar hydraulicity increases.

Investigation of thermal resistance and bridging in examples of contemporary and vernacular solid wall architecture

Contemporary architecture has tended to increase envelope insulation levels in an unceasing effort to reduce U-values. Traditional masonry architecture in contrast was devoid of insulation, except for the inherent insulative nature of vernacular materials. Also the consistency of the outer membrane of the building skin diminished any impact due to bridging. In contemporary highly insulated walls bridges are numerous due to the necessity to bind inner and outer structural skins through insulation layers. This paper examines thermal bridging in an example of contemporary façade design and compares it with an example of traditional vernacular architecture currently being researched which is characterized by a lack of bridging elements. Focus is given to heavy weight materials of high thermal mass, which appropriately for passive architecture help moderate fluctuations in internal temperature. In an extensive experimental study samples of highly insulated precast concrete sandwich panels and lime rendered masonry walls are tested in a guarded hot-box. The building construction methods are compared for static and dynamic thermal transmittance, via heat flux and surface temperature differential measurements. Focus is given to the differential heat loss due to the thermal bridging in the sandwich panels and its associated impact on overall heat loss relative to traditional masonry construction.

Adiposity as a cause of cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomization study

Background: Adiposity, as indicated by body mass index (BMI), has been associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases in epidemiological studies. We aimed to investigate if these associations are causal, using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.

Methods: The associations of BMI with cardiovascular outcomes [coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure and ischaemic stroke], and associations of a genetic score (32 BMI single nucleotide polymorphisms) with BMI and cardiovascular outcomes were examined in up to 22 193 individuals with 3062 incident cardiovascular events from nine prospective follow-up studies within the ENGAGE consortium. We used random-effects meta-analysis in an MR framework to provide causal estimates of the effect of adiposity on cardiovascular outcomes.

Results: There was a strong association between BMI and incident CHD (HR = 1.20 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–1.28, P = 1.9·10−7), heart failure (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.35–1.60, P = 9·10−19) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.15, 95% CI, 1.06–1.24, P = 0.0008) in observational analyses. The genetic score was robustly associated with BMI (β = 0.030 SD-increase of BMI per additional allele, 95% CI, 0.028–0.033, P = 3·10−107). Analyses indicated a causal effect of adiposity on development of heart failure (HR = 1.93 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–3.30, P = 0.017) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.83, 95% CI, 1.05–3.20, P = 0.034). Additional cross-sectional analyses using both ENGAGE and CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data showed a causal effect of adiposity on CHD.

Conclusions: Using MR methods, we provide support for the hypothesis that adiposity causes CHD, heart failure and, previously not demonstrated, ischaemic stroke.

Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase.

Life history of turbot in Icelandic waters: Intra- and inter-population genetic diversity and otolith tracking of environmental temperatures

The stock structure of turbot was investigated between samples from S-Norway, the Irish Sea and the Kattegat, using 12 microsatellite loci and compared to the turbot caught in Icelandic waters. Highly significant genetic differentiation was observed between samples from Kattegat and other areas. Significant genetic differentiation was also observed between the Irish Sea sample on one hand and Iceland and S-Norway on the other hand. No significant genetic differentiation was observed between Iceland and S-Norway. Otoliths of 25 turbot, age ranging from 3 to 19 years, were subjected to nearly 300 mass spectrometry determinations of stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. Oxygen isotope composition (δ¹⁸O) in the otolith samples was used to estimate ambient temperature at time of otolith accretion, and yielded estimated temperatures experienced by the turbot ranging from 3 to 15°C. Overall, the genetic analysis indicates panmixia between turbot in Icelandic and Norwegian waters. While the extensive migration of larvae between Norway and Iceland is unlikely, passive drift of turbot larva from other areas (e.g. Ireland) cannot be ruled out. 

Historical Dialogue and Memory in Policing Change: the Case of the Police in Northern Ireland

This paper explores the complex relationship between organisational change and historical dialogue in transitional societies. Using the policing reform process in Northern Ireland as an example, the paper does three things: the first is to explore the ways in which policing changes were understood within the policing organisation and ‘community’ itself. The second is to make use of a processual approach, privileging the interactions of context, process and time within the analysis. Thirdly, it considers this perspective through the relatively new lens of ‘historical dialogue’: understood here as a conversation and an oscillation between the past, present and future through reflections on individual and collective memory. Through this analysis, we consider how members’ understandings of a difficult past (and their roles in it) facilitated and/or impeded the organisations change process. Drawing on a range of interviews with previous and current members of the organisation, this paper sheds new light on how institutions deal with and understand the past as they experience organisational change within the a wider societal transition from conflict to non-violence.