Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Securing IEEE 802.11 wireless LANs

As the acceptance and popularity of wireless networking technologies has proliferated, the security of the IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) has advanced in leaps and bounds. From tenuous beginnings, where the only safe way to deploy a WLAN was to assume it was hostile and employ higherlayer information security controls, to the current state of the art, all manner of improvements have been conceived and many implemented. This work investigates some of the remaining issues surrounding IEEE 802.11 WLAN operation. While the inherent issues in WLAN deployments and the problems of the original Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) provisions are well known and widely documented, there still exist a number of unresolved security issues. These include the security of management and control frames and the data link layer protocols themselves. This research introduces a novel proposal to enhance security at the link layer of IEEE 802.11 WLANs and then conducts detailed theoretical and empirical investigation and analysis of the eects of such proposals. This thesis �rst de�nes the state of the art in WLAN technology and deployment, including an overview of the current and emerging standards, the various threats, numerous vulnerabilities and current exploits. The IEEE 802.11i MAC security enhancements are discussed in detail, along with the likely outcomes of the IEEE 802.11 Task Group W1, looking into protected management frames. The problems of the remaining unprotected management frames, the unprotected control frames and the unprotected link layer headers are reviewed and a solution is hypothesised, to encrypt the entire MAC Protocol Data Unit (MPDU), including the MAC headers, not just the MAC Service Data Unit (MSDU) commonly performed by existing protocols. The proposal is not just to encrypt a copy of the headers while still using cleartext addresses to deliver the frame, as used by some existing protocols to support the integrity and authenticity of the headers, but to pass the entire MPDU only as ciphertext to also support the con�dentiality of the frame header information. This necessitates the decryption of every received frame using every available key before a station can determine if it is the intended recipient. As such, this raises serious concerns as to the viability of any such proposal due to the likely impact on throughput and scalability. The bulk of the research investigates the impacts of such proposals on the current WLAN protocols. Some possible variations to the proposal are also provided to enhance both utility and speed. The viability this proposal with respect to the eect on network throughput is then tested using a well known and respected network simulation tool, along with a number of analysis tools developed speci�cally for the data generated here. The simulator's operation is �rst validated against recognised test outputs, before a comprehensive set of control data is established, and then the proposal is tested and and compared against the controls. This detailed analysis of the various simulations should be of bene�t to other researchers who need to validate simulation results. The analysis of these tests indicate areas of immediate improvement and so the protocols are adjusted and a further series of experiments conducted. These �nal results are again analysed in detail and �nal appraisals provided.

Analysis of alternative water sources for use in the manufacture of concrete

In Australia and many other countries worldwide, water used in the manufacture of concrete must be potable. At present, it is currently thought that concrete properties are highly influenced by the water type used and its proportion in the concrete mix, but actually there is little knowledge of the effects of different, alternative water sources used in concrete mix design. Therefore, the identification of the level and nature of contamination in available water sources and their subsequent influence on concrete properties is becoming increasingly important. Of most interest, is the recycled washout water currently used by batch plants as mixing water for concrete. Recycled washout water is the water used onsite for a variety of purposes, including washing of truck agitator bowls, wetting down of aggregate and run off. This report presents current information on the quality of concrete mixing water in terms of mandatory limits and guidelines on impurities as well as investigating the impact of recycled washout water on concrete performance. It also explores new sources of recycled water in terms of their quality and suitability for use in concrete production. The complete recycling of washout water has been considered for use in concrete mixing plants because of the great benefit in terms of reducing the cost of waste disposal cost and environmental conservation. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of using washout water on the properties of fresh and hardened concrete. This was carried out by utilizing a 10 week sampling program from three representative sites across South East Queensland. The sample sites chosen represented a cross-section of plant recycling methods, from most effective to least effective. The washout water samples collected from each site were then analysed in accordance with Standards Association of Australia AS/NZS 5667.1 :1998. These tests revealed that, compared with tap water, the washout water was higher in alkalinity, pH, and total dissolved solids content. However, washout water with a total dissolved solids content of less than 6% could be used in the production of concrete with acceptable strength and durability. These results were then interpreted using chemometric techniques of Principal Component Analysis, SIMCA and the Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods PROMETHEE and GAIA were used to rank the samples from cleanest to unclean. It was found that even the simplest purifying processes provided water suitable for the manufacture of concrete form wash out water. These results were compared to a series of alternative water sources. The water sources included treated effluent, sea water and dam water and were subject to the same testing parameters as the reference set. Analysis of these results also found that despite having higher levels of both organic and inorganic properties, the waters complied with the parameter thresholds given in the American Standard Test Method (ASTM) C913-08. All of the alternative sources were found to be suitable sources of water for the manufacture of plain concrete.

Identification of acoustic emission wave modes for accurate source location in plate-like structures

Acoustic emission (AE) technique is a popular tool used for structural health monitoring of civil, mechanical and aerospace structures. It is a non-destructive method based on rapid release of energy within a material by crack initiation or growth in the form of stress waves. Recording of these waves by means of sensors and subsequent analysis of the recorded signals convey information about the nature of the source. Ability to locate the source of stress waves is an important advantage of AE technique; but as AE waves travel in various modes and may undergo mode conversions, understanding of the modes (‘modal analysis’) is often necessary in order to determine source location accurately. This paper presents results of experiments aimed at finding locations of artificial AE sources on a thin plate and identifying wave modes in the recorded signal waveforms. Different source locating techniques will be investigated and importance of wave mode identification will be explored.

Impact of soil texture on the distribution of soil organic matter in physical and chemical fractions

Previous research on the protection of soil organic C from decomposition suggests that soil texture affects soil C stocks. However, different pools of soil organic matter (SOM) might be differently related to soil texture. Our objective was to examine how soil texture differentially alters the distribution of organic C within physically and chemically defined pools of unprotected and protected SOM. We collected samples from two soil texture gradients where other variables influencing soil organic C content were held constant. One texture gradient (16-60% clay) was located near Stewart Valley, Saskatchewan, Canada and the other (25-50% clay) near Cygnet, OH. Soils were physically fractionated into coarse- and fine-particulate organic matter (POM), silt- and clay-sized particles within microaggregates, and easily dispersed silt-and clay-sized particles outside of microaggregates. Whole-soil organic C concentration was positively related to silt plus clay content at both sites. We found no relationship between soil texture and unprotected C (coarse- and fine-POM C). Biochemically protected C (nonhydrolyzable C) increased with increasing clay content in whole-soil samples, but the proportion of nonhydrolyzable C within silt- and clay-sized fractions was unchanged. As the amount of silt or clay increased, the amount of C stabilized within easily dispersed and microaggregate-associated silt or clay fractions decreased. Our results suggest that for a given level of C inputs, the relationship between mineral surface area and soil organic matter varies with soil texture for physically and biochemically protected C fractions. Because soil texture acts directly and indirectly on various protection mechanisms, it may not be a universal predictor of whole-soil C content.

Developing speaking assessment tasks to reflect the 'social turn' in language testing

Interactional competence has emerged as a focal point for language testing researchers in recent years. In spoken communication involving two or more interlocutors, the co-construction of discourse is central to successful interaction. The acknowledgement of co-construction has led to concern over the impact of the interlocutor and the separability of performances in speaking tests involving interaction. The purpose of this article is to review recent studies of direct relevance to the construct of interactional competence and its operationalisation by raters in the context of second language speaking tests. The review begins by tracing the emergence of interaction as a criterion in speaking tests from a theoretical perspective, and then focuses on research salient to interactional effectiveness that has been carried out in the context of language testing interviews and group and paired speaking tests.

Valuing the impact of the teacher librarian from an evidence base

Evidence-based practice as it applies to the Library and Information (LIS) sector and in particular teacher librarians is the focus of this research investigation. The context for this research is Australian school libraries and teacher librarians. This is a research in progress and the report here will include some very early findings and lessons learned from the initial pilot study. The contributions of this research will be in developing a framework for the library and information sector with a particular application for teacher librarians. Providing meaningful evidence of work practices that demonstrate contributions to the schools goals and mission statements in conjunction with contributions to student academic, social and cultural achievements are crucial for the future of the teacher librarian.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments.

Executive summary Objective: The aims of this study were to identify the impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza on Australian Emergency Departments (EDs) and their staff, and to inform planning, preparedness, and response management arrangements for future pandemics, as well as managing infectious patients presenting to EDs in everyday practice. Methods This study involved three elements: 1. The first element of the study was an examination of published material including published statistics. Standard literature research methods were used to identify relevant published articles. In addition, data about ED demand was obtained from Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) publications, with several state health departments providing more detailed data. 2. The second element of the study was a survey of Directors of Emergency Medicine identified with the assistance of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM). This survey retrieved data about demand for ED services and elicited qualitative comments on the impact of the pandemic on ED management. 3. The third element of the study was a survey of ED staff. A questionnaire was emailed to members of three professional colleges—the ACEM; the Australian College of Emergency Nursing (ACEN); and the College of Emergency Nursing Australasia (CENA). The overall response rate for the survey was 18.4%, with 618 usable responses from 3355 distributed questionnaires. Topics covered by the survey included ED conditions during the (H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic; information received about Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza; pandemic plans; the impact of the pandemic on ED staff with respect to stress; illness prevention measures; support received from others in work role; staff and others’ illness during the pandemic; other factors causing ED staff to miss work during the pandemic; and vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed. Results: The results obtained from Directors of Emergency Medicine quantifying the impact of the pandemic were too limited for interpretation. Data sourced from health departments and published sources demonstrated an increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) presentations of between one and a half and three times the normal level of presentations of ILIs. Directors of Emergency Medicine reported a reasonable level of preparation for the pandemic, with most reporting the use of pandemic plans that translated into relatively effective operational infection control responses. Directors reported a highly significant impact on EDs and their staff from the pandemic. Growth in demand and related ED congestion were highly significant factors causing distress within the departments. Most (64%) respondents established a ‘flu clinic’ either as part of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments. the ED operations or external to it. They did not note a significantly higher rate of sick leave than usual. Responses relating to the impact on staff were proportional to the size of the colleges. Most respondents felt strongly that Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on demand in their ED, with most patients having low levels of clinical urgency. Most respondents felt that the pandemic had a negative impact on the care of other patients, and 94% revealed some increase in stress due to lack of space for patients, increased demand, and filling staff deficits. Levels of concern about themselves or their family members contracting the illness were less significant than expected. Nurses displayed significantly higher levels of stress overall, particularly in relation to skill-mix requirements, lack of supplies and equipment, and patient and patients’ family aggression. More than one-third of respondents became ill with an ILI. Whilst respondents themselves reported taking low levels of sick leave, respondents cited difficulties with replacing absent staff. Ranked from highest to lowest, respondents gained useful support from ED colleagues, ED administration, their hospital occupational health department, hospital administration, professional colleges, state health department, and their unions. Respondents were generally positive about the information they received overall; however, the volume of information was considered excessive and sometimes inconsistent. The media was criticised as scaremongering and sensationalist and as being the cause of many unnecessary presentations to EDs. Of concern to the investigators was that a large proportion (43%) of respondents did not know whether a pandemic plan existed for their department or hospital. A small number of staff reported being redeployed from their usual workplace for personal risk factors or operational reasons. As at the time of survey (29 October –18 December 2009), 26% of ED staff reported being vaccinated against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Of those not vaccinated, half indicated they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ not get vaccinated, with the main reasons being the vaccine was ‘rushed into production’, ‘not properly tested’, ‘came out too late’, or not needed due to prior infection or exposure, or due to the mildness of the disease. Conclusion: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on Australian Emergency Departments. The pandemic exposed problems in existing plans, particularly a lack of guidelines, general information overload, and confusion due to the lack of a single authoritative information source. Of concern was the high proportion of respondents who did not know if their hospital or department had a pandemic plan. Nationally, the pandemic communication strategy needs a detailed review, with more engagement with media networks to encourage responsible and consistent reporting. Also of concern was the low level of immunisation, and the low level of intention to accept vaccination. This is a problem seen in many previous studies relating to seasonal influenza and health care workers. The design of EDs needs to be addressed to better manage infectious patients. Significant workforce issues were confronted in this pandemic, including maintaining appropriate staffing levels; staff exposure to illness; access to, and appropriate use of, personal protective equipment (PPE); and the difficulties associated with working in PPE for prolonged periods. An administrative issue of note was the reporting requirement, which created considerable additional stress for staff within EDs. Peer and local support strategies helped ensure staff felt their needs were provided for, creating resilience, dependability, and stability in the ED workforce. Policies regarding the establishment of flu clinics need to be reviewed. The ability to create surge capacity within EDs by considering staffing, equipment, physical space, and stores is of primary importance for future pandemics.

The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy

This paper uses a multivariate analysis to examine how countries‘ tax morale and institutional quality affect the shadow economy. The literature strongly emphasizes the quantitative importance of these factors in understanding the level of and changes in the shadow economy. Newly available data sources offer the unique opportunity to further illuminate a topic that has received increased attention. After controlling for a variety of potential factors, we find strong support that a higher tax morale and a higher institutional quality lead to a smaller shadow economy.

The nonconceptual gateway to early word learning

My research investigates why nouns are learned disproportionately more frequently than other kinds of words during early language acquisition (Gentner, 1982; Gleitman, et al., 2004). This question must be considered in the context of cognitive development in general. Infants have two major streams of environmental information to make meaningful: perceptual and linguistic. Perceptual information flows in from the senses and is processed into symbolic representations by the primitive language of thought (Fodor, 1975). These symbolic representations are then linked to linguistic input to enable language comprehension and ultimately production. Yet, how exactly does perceptual information become conceptualized? Although this question is difficult, there has been progress. One way that children might have an easier job is if they have structures that simplify the data. Thus, if particular sorts of perceptual information could be separated from the mass of input, then it would be easier for children to refer to those specific things when learning words (Spelke, 1990; Pylyshyn, 2003). It would be easier still, if linguistic input was segmented in predictable ways (Gentner, 1982; Gleitman, et al., 2004) Unfortunately the frequency of patterns in lexical or grammatical input cannot explain the cross-cultural and cross-linguistic tendency to favor nouns over verbs and predicates. There are three examples of this failure: 1) a wide variety of nouns are uttered less frequently than a smaller number of verbs and yet are learnt far more easily (Gentner, 1982); 2) word order and morphological transparency offer no insight when you contrast the sentence structures and word inflections of different languages (Slobin, 1973) and 3) particular language teaching behaviors (e.g. pointing at objects and repeating names for them) have little impact on children's tendency to prefer concrete nouns in their first fifty words (Newport, et al., 1977). Although the linguistic solution appears problematic, there has been increasing evidence that the early visual system does indeed segment perceptual information in specific ways before the conscious mind begins to intervene (Pylyshyn, 2003). I argue that nouns are easier to learn because their referents directly connect with innate features of the perceptual faculty. This hypothesis stems from work done on visual indexes by Zenon Pylyshyn (2001, 2003). Pylyshyn argues that the early visual system (the architecture of the "vision module") segments perceptual data into pre-conceptual proto-objects called FINSTs. FINSTs typically correspond to physical things such as Spelke objects (Spelke, 1990). Hence, before conceptualization, visual objects are picked out by the perceptual system demonstratively, like a finger pointing indicating ‘this’ or ‘that’. I suggest that this primitive system of demonstration elaborates on Gareth Evan's (1982) theory of nonconceptual content. Nouns are learnt first because their referents attract demonstrative visual indexes. This theory also explains why infants less often name stationary objects such as plate or table, but do name things that attract the focal attention of the early visual system, i.e., small objects that move, such as ‘dog’ or ‘ball’. This view leaves open the question how blind children learn words for visible objects and why children learn category nouns (e.g. 'dog'), rather than proper nouns (e.g. 'Fido') or higher taxonomic distinctions (e.g. 'animal').

The impact of red light cameras on safety in Arizona

Red light cameras (RLCs) have been used in a number of US cities to yield a demonstrable reduction in red light violations; however, evaluating their impact on safety (crashes) has been relatively more difficult. Accurately estimating the safety impacts of RLCs is challenging for several reasons. First, many safety related factors are uncontrolled and/or confounded during the periods of observation. Second, “spillover” effects caused by drivers reacting to non-RLC equipped intersections and approaches can make the selection of comparison sites difficult. Third, sites selected for RLC installation may not be selected randomly, and as a result may suffer from the regression to the mean bias. Finally, crash severity and resulting costs need to be considered in order to fully understand the safety impacts of RLCs. Recognizing these challenges, a study was conducted to estimate the safety impacts of RLCs on traffic crashes at signalized intersections in the cities of Phoenix and Scottsdale, Arizona. Twenty-four RLC equipped intersections in both cities are examined in detail and conclusions are drawn. Four different evaluation methodologies were employed to cope with the technical challenges described in this paper and to assess the sensitivity of results based on analytical assumptions. The evaluation results indicated that both Phoenix and Scottsdale are operating cost-effective installations of RLCs: however, the variability in RLC effectiveness within jurisdictions is larger in Phoenix. Consistent with findings in other regions, angle and left-turn crashes are reduced in general, while rear-end crashes tend to increase as a result of RLCs.

Framework for measuring corporate safety culture and its impact on construction safety performance

This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) that describes and quantifies the relationships between corporate culture and safety performance. The SEM is estimated using 196 individual questionnaire responses from three companies with better than average safety records. A multiattribute analysis of corporate safety culture characteristics resulted in a hierarchical description of corporate safety culture comprised of three major categories — people, process, and value. These three major categories were decomposed into 54 measurable questions and used to develop a questionnaire to quantify corporate safety culture. The SEM identified five latent variables that describe corporate safety culture: (1) a company’s safety commitment; (2) the safety incentives that are offered to field personal for safe performance; (3) the subcontractor involvement in the company culture; (4) the field safety accountability and dedication; and (5) the disincentives for unsafe behaviors. These characteristics of company safety culture serve as indicators for a company’s safety performance. Based on the findings from this limited sample of three companies, this paper proposes a list of practices that companies may consider to improve corporate safety culture and safety performance. A more comprehensive study based on a larger sample is recommended to corroborate the findings of this study.