The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

Estimating the term structure of volatility and fixed income derivative pricing

Estimating the parameters of the instantaneous spot interest rate process is of crucial importance for pricing fixed income derivative securities. This paper presents an estimation for the parameters of the Gaussian interest rate model for pricing fixed income derivatives based on the term structure of volatility. We estimate the term structure of volatility for US treasury rates for the period 1983 - 1995, based on a history of yield curves. We estimate both conditional and first differences term structures of volatility and subsequently estimate the implied parameters of the Gaussian model with non-linear least squares estimation. Results for bond options illustrate the effects of differing parameters in pricing.

On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes - a partial survey

Data available on continuous-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the employment of Martingale Estimating Functions, and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

Correcting the fixed-effect estimator for endogenous switching

In this paper, we propose a two-step estimator for panel data models in which a binary covariate is endogenous. In the first stage, a random-effects probit model is estimated, having the endogenous variable as the left-hand side variable. Correction terms are then constructed and included in the main regression.

Existence and uniqueness of a fixed-point for local contractions

This paper proves the existence and uniqueness of a fixed-point for local contractions without assuming the family of contraction coefficients to be uniformly bounded away from 1. More importantly it shows how this fixed-point result can apply to study existence and uniqueness of solutions to some recursive equations that arise in economic dynamics.

The performance of open-end Brazilian fixed income mutual funds for retail clients

From a financial perspective, this dissertation analyzes the Brazilian mutual fund industry performance for an average retail client. The most representative funds for the local population, that are the fixed income open-end ones, will be selected and their performance will be measured aiming to answer if clients of this industry obtained a proper return over their investments in the period between August 2010 and August 2013. A proper return will be understood as the preservation of the purchasing power of the individual´s savings, what is achieved with a positive performance of a mutual fund after discounting taxes, administrative fees and inflation. After obtaining an answer for the previous question, this dissertation will explore a possible alternative solution: Tesouro Direto, that is an example of a financial approach that could foster the disintermediation between savings and investments through electronic channels. New electronic platforms, with a broader scope, could be utilized to increase the efficiency of funding productive investments through better remunerating Brazilian savings. Tesouro Direto may point towards a new paradigm.

Estimation of random coefficients logit demand models: an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market

Estimation of demand and supply in differentiated products markets is a central issue in Empirical Industrial Organization and has been used to study the effects of taxes, merges, introduction of new goods, market power, among others. Logit and Random Coefficients Logit are examples of demand models used to study these effects. For the supply side it is generally supposed a Nash equilibrium in prices. This work presents a detailed discussion of these models of demand and supply as well as the procedure for estimation. Lastly, is made an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market.

Partial economic reforrns and financial crises: an emerging markets perspective

The recent emerging market experiences have posed a challenge to the conventional wisdom that unsustainable fiscal deficits are the key to understanding financial crises in these countries. The health of the domestic banking system has emerged as the main driving force behind the perverse dynamics of partial reforms. The current paper shares this view and uses a model of contractual inefliciencies in the banking sector to understand the dynamics of these reforms. We find that the threat of a large exchange rate devaluation depends on the stock of international reserves relative to the stock of domestic credit that must be extended by the Central Bank in response to a large capital outflow. Moreover, if a country has a weak banking sector but high net reserve ratios, the capital flow reversal might only increase the vulnerability to a currency crisis without necessarily causing it. The results are in accordance with much of the empiricalliterature on the determinants of financiaI crises in emerging markets. Some aspectsof the recent policy debate on the introduction of capital controls are also analysed.

Estimation of genetic parameters for partial egg production periods by means of random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Controle estatístico aplicado ao processo de colheita mecanizada diurna e noturna de cana-de-açúcar

The system of mechanized harvesting can seek process improvements using quality tools that can assist in reducing losses, damaged ratoons and increase the longevity of sugarcane crop. Therefore, the objective this study was to detect the effective control of the variability of losses and damage to ratoon and identify whether they are within acceptable standards. Thus, 40 points were sampled in two periods of harvest, diurnal and nocturnal, in rectangular grids (55 x 45 m) for determining visible losses (whole and shattered billets, fixed and loose piece, stump and shrapnel), using frames of 10 m(2). Also, we measured the height of cut and degree of damage to ratoon (without damage, partial injury and fragmentation). The statistic used was descriptive variables for the loss of sugarcane during the diurnal (D) and nocturnal (N) periods, analysis of variance using the F test at 5% probability and the Tukey test for comparison of the mean, also using the statistical control through charts process. There was no difference to ratoon damage. In the process of harvest, losses of whole and shattered billets by grinding were considered under control, so as losses from the stump. on the other hand, the losses of fixed piece, shrapnel and whole-cane were not controlled. The cutting height and total losses were higher during the nocturnal harvest. The charts were shown to be effective for the evaluation of control process of diurnal and nocturnal harvests.

Fertility Rates Following Fixed-Time Artificial Insemination in Dairy Heifers in a Practical Progesterone-Based Protocol

Background: In bovines, more efficient management practices are important for maximizing profitability. In order to increase the pregnancy rates in artificial insemination (AI) programs, several hormonal protocols were developed to synchronize the follicular wave and the moment of ovulation in beef and dairy cattle. In dairy cattle, detection of estrus can be difficult due to a number of factors including the incidence of silent estrus. Hormonal treatments designed to control both luteal and follicular function has permitting efficient synchronizations of time of ovulation. Thus, the AI can be performed in a large number of animals on a fixed schedule without the need for detection of estrus. Using these management techniques, the fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) can overcome the problem of accurate estrus detection and help in reducing the incidence of repeat breeding. In addition, with TAI in cattle operations, it is possible to facilitate management practices and commercialization, and to reduce the time and semen wasting with animals inseminated at incorrect times. The investigation of practical and efficient TAI protocols is important for reducing the labor and animal handling of TAI in dairy cattle, as well as for increasing the profitability of the cattle management system. This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of TAI in dairy heifers treated with a practical progesterone-based protocol.Materials, Methods & Results: This experiment was conducted at the university farm located in southwestern Brazil, during May 2009. Thirty-nine cycling crossbred dairy heifers were employed in this study. All animals received a single intramuscular injection of estradiol benzoate and intravaginal progesterone releasing device in a random stage of the estrous cycle (Day 0). on day 7 the animals were treated with PGF2a analogue and on day 9 the device was removed. Forty-eight hours after the device removal (day 11) a synthetic analogue of GnRH was administered and the animals were fixed-time artificially inseminated at the time of GnRH injection. The inseminations were performed using four different batches from the same Holstein bull. Among the heifers that were synchronized (87.2%), 30.8% ovulated until 24 h after TAI and 56.4% ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI. The conception rate was 61.5%. No effects of ovulation time in conception rates were detected. The conception rate from heifers that ovulated until 24 h after TAI was 58.3% and from heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI was 77.3%. The mean of ovulatory follicle in heifers that ovulated until 24 h was 14.3 mm and in heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h was 11.9 mm.Discussion: Taking together, the findings of the present study, along with those of others, emphasize the concept that development of practical methods for TAI offers significant advantages to dairy producers if conception rates are close or greater to those obtained after breeding at detected estrus. Thus, the results of the present study reinforce the possibility of making dairy cattle production more cost-effective using TAI. In conclusion, with the progesterone-based TAI protocol of the present experiment all synchronized animals ovulated up to 32 h after GnRH+TAI and no effects of ovulation time related to conception rate was detected. The exogenous control of luteal and follicular development facilitated the reproductive management and animal handling. Also, inseminating the heifers at the moment of GnRH injection in a progesterone-based TAI protocol is a practical strategy and provided satisfactory results regarding ovulation and conception rates in dairy heifers.

Partial protection against tissue cysts formation in pigs vaccinated with crude rhoptry proteins of Toxoplasma gondii

A vaccine containing crude Toxoplasma gondii rhoptry proteins incorporated in the immunostimulating complexes (ISCOM) adjuvant was tested in pigs for protecting against tissue cyst formation. For this, 38 mixed breed pigs were divided into four groups, G1 (vaccinated challenged, n = 10) received two doses (100 mu g/dose) of the rhoptry vaccine at days 0 and 21, G2 (vaccinated challenged, n = 10) received viable tachyzoites (7 x 10(7)) of the RH strain at day 0, G3 (unvaccinated challenged, n = 10) and G4 (unvaccinated unchallenged, n = 8). Pigs were challenged with 4 x 10(4) VEG strain oocysts 57 days later. The G1 pigs produced high IgG antibody levels in the indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) after the second dose of rhoptry vaccine, but were not clinically protected against a high dose oocyst challenge. Partial protection was observed in G1 at the chronic phase of infection, when compared with G3. Pigs in group 2 developed high antibody levels and were protected against clinic signs. T gondii was not detected in two (G1) and three (G2) pigs by mouse bioassay. The results indicate partial protection in pigs vaccinated with a rhoptry vaccine. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of bovine herpesvirus 5 (BoHV-5) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded bovine brain by nested PCR in Colombian cattle

Fifteen cases of viral meningoencephalitis in Colombian cattle were tested by nested PCR analysis for the detection of bovine herpesvirus 5 (BoHV-5). All fatal cases had shown severe neurological signs and had occurred following natural outbreaks of the disease. The neurological infection was histologically characterized by mild to moderate inflammatory changes in the brain and cerebellum, including meningitis, mononuclear perivascular cuffing, gliosis, haemorrhage, and the presence of Gitter cells (macrophages) accompanying large areas of malacia. No intranuclear inclusion bodies were seen in any of the cases. Results from BoHV-5 molecular extraction analyses showed there were five positive cases thus confirming the presence of the virus in Colombia.

Poultry feed metabolizable energy determination using total or partial excreta collection methods

The aim of this work was to compare the efficiency of total (TC) or partial (PC) collection excreta methods to determine metabolizable energy in poultry feeds. A number of 180 12- to 21-day-old broilers were distributed into two treatments of six replicates of 10 birds each. A reference-diet was formulated to supply broiler requirements, and the test-diets consisted of 60% of reference diets and 40% of corn or soybean meal. Celite was added at 1% to the diets as a marker. Excreta and diet samples were analyzed for dry matter, energy, nitrogen, and acid-insoluble ash (AIA). AME of corn determined by partial collection (PC) was higher (3544 kcal/kg) as compared to total collection (TC) (3133 kcal/kg). However, no difference were observed for soybean meal (1797 vs. 1821 kcal/kg) between both methods. Marker recovery rates in the excreta were 101, 111, and 96% for the basal-diet, and the test-diets with corn or soybean meal, respectively. This result indicates the importance of marker recovery rate in the excreta to evaluate feed AME and digestibility.

Síntese e caracterização do carbeto de molibdênio nanoestruturado para fins catalíticos na reação de oxidação parcial do metano

The nanostructures materials are characterized to have particle size smaller than 100 nm and could reach 1 nm. Due to the extremely reduced dimensions of the grains, the properties of these materials are significantly modified relatively when compared with the conventional materials. In the present work was accomplished a study and characterization of the molybdenum carbide, seeking obtain it with particles size in the nanometers order and evaluate its potential as catalyst in the reaction of partial methane oxidation. The method used for obtaining the molybdenum carbide was starting from the precursor ammonium heptamolybdate of that was developed in split into two oven, in reactor of fixed bed, with at a heating rate of 5ºC/min, in a flow of methane and hydrogen whose flow was of 15L/h with 5% of methane for all of the samples. The studied temperatures were 350, 500, 600, 650, 660, 675 and 700ºC and were conducted for 0, 60, 120 and 180 minutes, and the percent amount and the crystallite size of the intermediate phases were determined by the Rietveld refinement method. The carbide obtained at 660ºC for 3 hours of reaction showed the best results, 24 nm. Certain the best synthesis condition, a passivating study was accomplished, in these conditions, to verify the stability of the carbide when exposed to the air. The molybdenum carbide was characterized by SEM, TEM, elemental analysis, ICP-AES, TG in atmosphere of hydrogen and TPR. Through the elemental analysis and ICP-AES the presence carbon load was verified. TG in atmosphere of hydrogen proved that is necessary the passivating of the molybdenum carbide, because occur oxidation in room temperature. The catalytic test was accomplished in the plant of Fischer-Tropsch of CTGAS, that is composed of a reactor of fixed bed. Already the catalytic test showed that the carbide presents activity for partial oxidation, but the operational conditions should be adjusted to improve the conversion