Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

Mechanistic modelling of pilling. Part II: Individual-fibre computational model

A one-dimensional computational model of pilling of a fibre assembly has been created. The model follows a set of individual fibres, as free ends and loops appear as fuzz and arc progressively withdrawn from the body of the assembly, and entangle to form pills, which eventually break off or are pulled out. The time dependence of the computation is given by ticks, which correspond to cycles of a wear and laundering process. The movement of the fibres is treated as a reptation process. A set of standard values is used as inputs to the computation. Predictions arc given of the change with a number Of cycles of mass of fuzz, mass of pills, and mass removed from the assembly. Changes in the standard values allow sensitivity studies to be carried out.

Combinatorial solid phase synthesis of multiply substituted 1,4-benzodiazepines and affinity studies on the CCK2 receptor (Part 1)

One hundred sixty-eight multiply substituted 1,4-benzodiazepines have been prepared by a five-step solid-phase combinatorial approach using syn-phase crowns as a solid support and a hydroxymethyl-phenoxy-acetamido linkage (Wang linker). The substituents of the 1,4-benzodiazepine scaffold have been varied in the -3, -5, -7, and 8-positions and the combinatorial library was evaluated in a cholecystokinin (CCK) radioligand binding assay. 3-Alkylated 1,4-benzodiazepines with selectivity towards the CCK-B (CCK2) receptor have been optimized on the lipophilic side chain, the ketone moiety, and the stereochemistry at the 3-position. Various novel 3-alkylated compounds were synthesized and [S]3-propyl-5-phenyl-1,4-benzodiazepin-2-one, [S]NV-A, has shown a CCK-B selective binding at about 180 nM. Fifty-eight compounds of this combinatorial library were purified by preparative TLC and 25 compounds were isolated and fully characterized by TLC, IR, APCI-MS, and 1H/13C-NMR spectroscopy.

A new rapidly absorbed paracetamol tablet containing sodium bicarbonate. II. Dissolution studies and in vitro/in vivo correlation

The objective of this study was to compare the in vitro dissolution profile of a new rapidly absorbed paracetamol tablet containing sodium bicarbonate (PS) with that of a conventional paracetamol tablet (P), and to relate these by deconvolution and mapping to in vivo release. The dissolution methods used include the standard procedure described in the USP monograph for paracetamol tablets, employing buffer at pH5.8 or 0.05 M HCl at stirrer speeds between 10 and 50 rpm. The mapping process was developed and implemented in Microsoft Excel® worksheets that iteratively calculated the optimal values of scale and shape factors which linked in vivo time to in vitro time. The in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) was carried out simultaneously for both formulations to produce common mapping factors. The USP method, using buffer at pH5.8, demonstrated no difference between the two products. However, using an acidic medium the rate of dissolution of P but not of PS decreased with decreasing stirrer speed. A significant correlation (r=0.773; p<.00001) was established between in vivo release and in vitro dissolution using the profiles obtained with 0.05 M HCl and a stirrer speed of 30 rpm. The scale factor for optimal simultaneous IVIVC in the fasting state was 2.54 and the shape factor was 0.16; corresponding values for mapping in the fed state were 3.37 and 0.13 (implying a larger in vitro-in vivo time difference but reduced shape difference in the fed state). The current IVIVC explains, in part, the observed in vivo variability of the two products. The approach to mapping may also be extended to different batches of these products, to predict the impact of any changes of in vitro dissolution on in vivo release and plasma drug concentration-time profiles.

Studies of molecular interactions using physical techniques

The investigations described in this thesis concern the molecular interactions between polar solute molecules and various aromatic compounds in solution. Three different physical methods were employed. Nuclear magnetic resonance (n.m.r.) spectroscopy was used to determine the nature and strength of the interactions and the geometry of the transient complexes formed. Cryoscopic studies were used to provide information on the stoichiometry of the complexes. Dielectric constant studies were conducted in an attempt to confirm and supplement the spectroscopic investigations. The systems studied were those between nitromethane, chloroform, acetonitrile (solutes) and various methyl substituted benzenes. In the n.m.r. work the dependence of the solute chemical shift upon the compositions of the solutions was determined. From this the equilibrium quotients (K) for the formation of each complex and the shift induced in the solute proton by the aromatic in the complex were evaluated. The thermodynamic parameters for the interactions were obtained from the determination of K at several temperatures. The stoichiometries of the complexes obtained from cryoscopic studies were found to agree with those deduced from spectroscopic investigations. For most systems it is suggested that only one type of complex, of 1:1 stiochiometry, predominates except that for the acetonitrile-benzene system a 1:2 complex is formed. Two sets of dielectric studies were conducted, the first to show that the nature of the interaction is dipole-induced dipole and the second to calculate K. The equilibrium quotients obtained from spectroscopic and dielectric studies are compared. Time-averaged geometries of the complexes are proposed. The orientation of solute, with respect to the aromatic for the 1:1 complexes, appears to be the one in which the solute lies symmetrically about the aromatic six-fold axis whereas for the 1:2 complex, a sandwich structure is proposed. It is suggested that the complexes are formed through a dipole-induced dipole interaction and steric factors play some part in the complex formation.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.