Iowa Disaster Recovery Tabletop Exercise After Action Report/Improvement Plan, August 2010

On June 24, 2010, the Rebuild Iowa Office (RIO) held a discussion-based tabletop exercise for the purpose of creating a framework to support disaster recovery coordination within the State of Iowa. The exercise design team was composed of RIO and Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division (HSEMD) staff. Initial planning for the Iowa Disaster Recovery Tabletop Exercise began in February 2010, in response to recommendations by the Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission and the Rebuild Iowa Coordinating Council. Both of these groups were organized in direct response to the 2008 Iowa disasters to help establish a path for Iowa’s recovery and monitor progress toward meeting established goals. Recommendations included formalizing the responsibilities of the RIO as they relate to 2008 disasters, capturing lessons learned, and determining what a recovery model should look like for Iowa’s future disasters.

Persistent hyperglycemia at 24-48 h in acute hyperglycemic stroke patients is not associated with a worse functional outcome.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it was shown that the relation between admission glucose and functional outcome after ischemic stroke is described by a J-shaped curve, with a glucose range of 3.7-7.3 mmol/l associated with a favorable outcome. We tested the hypothesis that persistence of hyperglycemia above this threshold at 24-48 h after stroke onset impairs 3-month functional outcome. METHODS: We analyzed all patients with glucose >7.3 mmol/l on admission from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL). Patients were divided into two groups according to their subacute glucose level at 24-48 h after last well-being time (group 1: ≤7.3 mmol/l, group 2: >7.3 mmol/l). A favorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Score (mRS) ≤2 at 3 months. A multiple logistic regression analysis of multiple demographic, clinical, laboratory and neuroimaging covariates was performed to assess predictors of an unfavorable outcome. RESULTS: A total of 1,984 patients with ischemic stroke were admitted between January 1, 2003 and October 20, 2009, within 24 h after last well-being time. In the 421 patients (21.2%) with admission glucose >7.3 mmol/l, the proportion of patients with a favorable outcome was not statistically significantly different between the two groups (59.2 vs. 48.7%, respectively). In multiple logistic regression analysis, unfavorable outcome was significantly associated with age (odds ratio, OR: 1.06, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08 for every 10-year increase), National Institute of Health Stroke Score, NIHSS score, on admission (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.11-1.21), prehospital mRS (OR: 12.63, 95% CI: 2.61-61.10 for patients with score >0), antidiabetic drug usage (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.15-0.86) and glucose on admission (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.31 for every 1 mmol/l increase). No association was found between persistent hyperglycemia at 24-28 h and outcome in either diabetics or nondiabetics. CONCLUSIONS: In ischemic stroke patients with acute hyperglycemia, persistent hyperglycemia (>7.3 mmol/l) at 24-48 h after stroke onset is not associated with a worse functional outcome at 3 months whether the patient was previously diabetic or not.

Patterns of failure and outcome in patients with carcinoma of the anal margin.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the outcome of patients with carcinoma of anal margin in terms of recurrence, survival, and radiation toxicity. METHODS: A series of 45 consecutive patients, with anal margin carcinoma treated between 1983 and 2006 with curative intent at two institutions, was retrospectively analyzed. A surgical excision (close or positive surgical margin in 22 out of 29 patients) was realized before radiotherapy (RT). RT consisted of definitive external beam RT (EBRT) in 36 patients, brachytherapy (BT) alone in two patients, and both BT and EBRT in seven patients. The median total radiation dose was 59.4 Gy (range, 30-74 Gy). RESULTS: The 5-year locoregional control (LRC) rate was 78% [95% confidence interval (CI), 64-93%]. The 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were respectively 86% (95% CI, 72-99%) and 55% (95% CI, 44-66%). The overall anal conservation rate was 80% for the whole series. There was no significant association between local recurrence and patient age, histological grade, tumor size, T stage, overall treatment time, RT dose, or chemotherapy. Long-term side effects were observed in 15 patients (33%). Only three patients developed grade 3-4 late toxicity (CTCAE/NCI v3.0). Significant relationship was found between dose, and complication rate (48% for dose >or=59.4 Gy versus 8% for dose < 59.4 Gy; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that definitive RT and/or BT yield a good local control and disease-specific survival comparable with published data. This study suggests that radiation dose over 59.4 Gy seems to increase treatment-related morbidity.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Exaggerated pulmonary hypertension during mild exercise in chronic mountain sickness.

BACKGROUND: Chronic mountain sickness (CMS) is an important public health problem and is characterized by exaggerated hypoxemia, erythrocytosis, and pulmonary hypertension. While pulmonary hypertension is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with CMS, it is relatively mild and its underlying mechanisms are not known. We speculated that during mild exercise associated with daily activities, pulmonary hypertension in CMS is much more pronounced. METHODS: We estimated pulmonary artery pressure by using echocardiography at rest and during mild bicycle exercise at 50 W in 30 male patients with CMS and 32 age-matched, healthy control subjects who were born and living at an altitude of 3,600 m. RESULTS: The modest, albeit significant difference of the systolic right-ventricular-to-right-atrial pressure gradient between patients with CMS and controls at rest (30.3 +/- 8.0 vs 25.4 +/- 4.5 mm Hg, P 5 .002) became more than three times larger during mild bicycle exercise (56.4 +/- 19.0 vs 39.8 +/- 8.0 mm Hg, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Measurements of pulmonary artery pressure at rest greatly underestimate pulmonary artery pressure during daily activity in patients with CMS. The marked pulmonary hypertension during mild exercise associated with daily activity may explain why this problem is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with CMS.

Outcome evaluation of ankle osteoarthritis treatments: plantar pressure analysis during relatively long-distance walking.

Background : This study aimed to use plantar pressure analysis in relatively long-distance walking for objective outcome evaluation of ankle osteoarthritis treatments, i.e., ankle arthrodesis and total ankle replacement.Methods : Forty-seven subjects in four groups: three patient groups and controls, participated in the study. Each subject walked twice in 50-m trials. Plantar pressure under the pathological foot was measured using pressure insoles. Six parameters: initial contact time, terminal contact time, maximum force time, peak pressure time, maximum force and peak pressure were calculated and averaged over trials in ten regions of foot. The parameters in each region were compared between patient groups and controls and their effect size was estimated. Besides, the correlations between pressure parameters and clinical scales were calculated.Findings : We observed based on temporal parameters that patients postpone the heel-off event, when high force in forefoot and high ankle moment happens. Also based on maximum force and peak pressure, the patients apply smoothened maximum forces on the affected foot. In ten regions, some parameters showed improvements after total ankle replacement, some showed alteration of foot function after ankle arthrodesis and some others showed still abnormality after both surgical treatments. These parameters showed also significant correlation with clinical scales in at least two regions of foot.Interpretation : Plantar pressure parameters in relatively long-distance trials showed to be strong tools for outcome evaluation of ankle osteoarthritis treatments. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outcome Prediction after Cardiac Arrest Treated with Hypothermia

Rationale: Clinical and electrophysiological prognostic markers of brain anoxia have been mostly evaluated in comatose survivors of out hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) after standard resuscitation, but their predictive value in patients treated with mild induced hypothermia (IH) is unknown. The objective of this study was to identify a predictive score of independent clinical and electrophysiological variables in comatose OHCA survivors treated with IH, aiming at a maximal positive predictive value (PPV) and a high negative predictive value (NPV) for mortality. Methods: We prospectively studied consecutive adult comatose OHCA survivors from April 2006 to May 2009, treated with mild IH to 33-34_C for 24h at the intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. IH was applied using an external cooling method. As soon as subjects passively rewarmed (body temperature >35_C) they underwent EEG and SSEP recordings (off sedation), and were examined by experienced neurologists at least twice. Patients with status epilepticus were treated with AED for at least 24h. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of mortality at hospital discharge. These were used to formulate a predictive score. Results: 100 patients were studied; 61 died. Age, gender and OHCA etiology (cardiac vs. non-cardiac) did not differ among survivors and nonsurvivors. Cardiac arrest type (non-ventricular fibrillation vs. ventricular fibrillation), time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) >25min, failure to recover all brainstem reflexes, extensor or no motor response to pain, myoclonus, presence of epileptiform discharges on EEG, EEG background unreactive to pain, and bilaterally absent N20 on SSEP, were all significantly associated with mortality. Absent N20 was the only variable showing no false positive results. Multivariable logistic regression identified four independent predictors (Table). These were used to construct the score, and its predictive values were calculated after a cut-off of 0-1 vs. 2-4 predictors. We found a PPV of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00), a NPV of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.67-0.91) and an accuracy of 0.93 for mortality. Among 9 patients who were predicted to survive by the score but eventually died, only 1 had absent N20. Conclusions: Pending validation in a larger cohort, this simple score represents a promising tool to identify patients who will survive, and most subjects who will not, after OHCA and IH. Furthermore, while SSEP are 100% predictive of poor outcome but not available in most hospitals, this study identifies EEG background reactivity as an important predictor after OHCA. The score appears robust even without SSEP, suggesting that SSEP and other investigations (e.g., mismatch negativity, serum NSE) might be principally needed to enhance prognostication in the small subgroup of patients failing to improve despite a favorable score.

RNA/DNA co-analysis from blood stains--results of a second collaborative EDNAP exercise.

A second collaborative exercise on RNA/DNA co-analysis for body fluid identification and STR profiling was organized by the European DNA Profiling Group (EDNAP). Six human blood stains, two blood dilution series (5-0.001 μl blood) and, optionally, bona fide or mock casework samples of human or non-human origin were analyzed by the participating laboratories using a RNA/DNA co-extraction or solely RNA extraction method. Two novel mRNA multiplexes were used for the identification of blood: a highly sensitive duplex (HBA, HBB) and a moderately sensitive pentaplex (ALAS2, CD3G, ANK1, SPTB and PBGD). The laboratories used different chemistries and instrumentation. All of the 18 participating laboratories were able to successfully isolate and detect mRNA in dried blood stains. Thirteen laboratories simultaneously extracted RNA and DNA from individual stains and were able to utilize mRNA profiling to confirm the presence of blood and to obtain autosomal STR profiles from the blood stain donors. The positive identification of blood and good quality DNA profiles were also obtained from old and compromised casework samples. The method proved to be reproducible and sensitive using different analysis strategies. The results of this collaborative exercise involving a RNA/DNA co-extraction strategy support the potential use of an mRNA based system for the identification of blood in forensic casework that is compatible with current DNA analysis methodology.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of inpatients versus outpatients with venous thromboembolism: findings from the RIETE Registry.

BACKGROUND: Patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) treated with anticoagulants are at risk of death from pulmonary embolism (PE) and/or bleeding. However, whether patients who develop VTE in hospital have a higher complication rate than those who develop VTE in an outpatient setting is unclear. PATIENTS AND METHODS: RIETE is an ongoing, prospective registry of consecutive patients with acute, objectively confirmed, symptomatic VTE. We compared the 3-month incidence of fatal PE and fatal bleeding in patients in whom the VTE had developed while in hospital for another medical condition (inpatients) with those who presented to the emergency ward because of VTE (outpatients). RESULTS: Up to April 2008, 22,133 patients with acute VTE were enrolled: 10,461 (47%) presented with PE, 11,672 with deep vein thrombosis. Overall, 6445 (29%) were inpatients. During the study period, those who developed VTE as inpatients had a significantly higher incidence of fatal PE (2.1% vs. 1.5%; odds ratio: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), overall death (7.0% vs. 5.4%; odds ratio: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2-1.5), and major bleeding (2.9% vs. 2.1%; odds ratio: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) than outpatients. The incidence of fatal bleeding was not significantly increased (0.7% vs. 0.5%; odds ratio: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.9-1.8). In multivariable analysis, inpatient status was significantly associated with a higher risk for fatal PE (odds ratio: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7). CONCLUSIONS: VTE occurring in hospitalized patients carries a significantly higher risk for death of PE than in outpatients, underscoring the importance of VTE prevention strategies in the hospital setting.

Clinical management and outcome of histologically verified adult brainstem gliomas in Switzerland: a retrospective analysis of 21 patients.

Because of low incidence, mixed study populations and paucity of clinical and histological data, the management of adult brainstem gliomas (BSGs) remains non-standardized. We here describe characteristics, treatment and outcome of patients with exclusively histologically confirmed adult BSGs. A retrospective chart review of adults (age >18 years) was conducted. BSG was defined as a glial tumor located in the midbrain, pons or medulla. Characteristics, management and outcome were analyzed. Twenty one patients (17 males; median age 41 years) were diagnosed between 2004 and 2012 by biopsy (n = 15), partial (n = 4) or complete resection (n = 2). Diagnoses were glioblastoma (WHO grade IV, n = 6), anaplastic astrocytoma (WHO grade III, n = 7), diffuse astrocytoma (WHO grade II, n = 6) and pilocytic astrocytoma (WHO grade I, n = 2). Diffuse gliomas were mainly located in the pons and frequently showed MRI contrast enhancement. Endophytic growth was common (16 vs. 5). Postoperative therapy in low-grade (WHO grade I/II) and high-grade gliomas (WHO grade III/IV) consisted of radiotherapy alone (three in each group), radiochemotherapy (2 vs. 6), chemotherapy alone (0 vs. 2) or no postoperative therapy (3 vs. 1). Median PFS (24.1 vs. 5.8 months; log-rank, p = 0.009) and mOS (30.5 vs. 11.5 months; log-rank, p = 0.028) was significantly better in WHO grade II than in WHO grade III/IV tumors. Second-line therapy considerably varied. Histologically verification of adult BSGs is feasible and has an impact on postoperative treatment. Low-grade gliomas can simple be followed or treated with radiotherapy alone. Radiochemotherapy with temozolomide can safely be prescribed for high-grade gliomas without additional CNS toxicities.

Glial and axonal body fluid biomarkers are related to infarct volume, severity, and outcome.

Body fluid biomarkers of central nervous system damage may help improve the prognostic and diagnostic accuracy in ischemic stroke. We studied 53 patients. Stroke severity and outcome was rated using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and modified Rankin scale. Ferritin, S100B, and NfH were measured in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum. Infarct volume was calculated from T2W images. CSF S100B (median 1.00 ng/mL) and CSF ferritin (10.0 ng/mL) levels were elevated in patients with stroke compared with control subjects (0.62 ng/mL, P < .0001; 2.34 ng/mL, P < .0001). Serum S100B (0.09 ng/mL) was higher in patients with stroke compared with control subjects (0.01 ng/mL). CSF S100B levels were higher in patients with a cardioembolic stroke (2.88 ng/mL) than in those with small-vessel disease (0.89 ng/mL, P < .05). CSF S100B levels correlated with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission (R = 0.56, P < .01) and the stroke volume (R = 0.44, P = .01). CSF S100B and NfH-SMI35 levels correlated with outcome on the modified Rankin scale. CSF S100B levels were related to stroke severity and infarct volume and highest in cardioembolic stroke.

Patient, primary care physician and specialist expectations of primary care physician involvement in cancer care.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, many health authorities recommend that primary care physicians (PCP) stay involved throughout their patients' cancer journey to increase continuity of care. Few studies have focused on patient and physician expectations regarding PCP involvement in cancer care. OBJECTIVE: To compare lung cancer patient, PCP and specialist expectations regarding PCP involvement in coordination of care, emotional support, information transmission and symptom relief at the different phases of cancer. DESIGN: Canadian survey of lung cancer patients, PCPs and cancer specialists PARTICIPANTS: A total of 395 patients completed questionnaires on their expectations regarding their PCP participation in several aspects of care, at different phases of their cancer. Also, 45 specialists and 232 community-based PCP involved in these patients' care responded to a mail survey on the same aspects of cancer care. RESULTS: Most specialists did not expect participation of the PCP in coordination of care in the diagnosis and treatment phases (65% and 78% respectively), in contrast with patients (83% and 85%) and PCPs (80% and 59%) (p < 0.0001). At these same phases, the best agreement among the 3 groups was around PCP role in emotional support: 84% and more of all groups had this expectation. PCP participation in symptom relief was another shared expectation, but more unanimously at the treatment phase (p = 0.85). In the advanced phase, most specialists expect a major role of PCP in all aspects of care (from 81% to 97%). Patients and PCP agree with them mainly for emotional support and information transmission. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer patient, PCP and specialist expectations regarding PCP role differ with the phase of cancer and the specific aspect of cancer care. There is a need to reach a better agreement among them and to better define PCP role, in order to achieve more collaborative and integrated cancer care.