The most private private education : home education in Australia

In Australia, the decision to home educate is becoming increasingly popular (cf. Townsend, 2012). The popularity of home education is in spite of a large number of publically funded, financially affordable private and public schools that offer a range of educational alternatives to parents (cf. English, 2009). In spite of its increasing popularity, the reasons home education is chosen by Australian families is under-researched (cf. Jackson & Allan, 2010). This paper reports on a case study that set out to explore the reasons Australian parents choose to home educate and whether this decision is related to the choice of a private school in Australia. In-depth, qualitative interviews were conducted with a group of home education families in one of Australia’s most populated cities. Data were thematically analysed. The analysis revealed that there were similarities between the discourses of parents who privately educate and parents who home educate. In particular, it reveals the parents’ fears about schools, their negative experiences of schools and their hopes for their children’s futures.

Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Pull-out strength of steel roof and wall cladding systems

When steel roof and wall cladding systems are subjected to wind uplift/suction forces, local pull-through/dimpling failures or pull-out failures occur prematurely at their screwed connections. During extreme wind events such as storms and hurricanes, these localized failures then lead to severe damage to buildings and their contents. An investigation was therefore carried out to study the failure that occurs when the screw fastener pulls out of the steel battens, purlins, or girts. Both two-span cladding tests and small-scale tests were conducted using a range of commonly used screw fasteners and steel battens, purlins, and girts. Experimental results showed that the current design formula may not be suitable unless a reduced capacity factor of 0.4 is used. Therefore, an improved design formula has been developed for pull-out failures in steel cladding systems. The formula takes into account thickness and ultimate tensile strength of steel, along with thread diameter and the pitch of screw fasteners, in order to model the pull-out behavior more accurately. This paper presents the details of this experimental investigation and its results.

Encouraging, assisting, and time to eat : comparison of mealtime assistance interventions in elderly medical inpatients

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of protein-energy malnutrition in older adults is reported to be as high as 60% and is associated with poor health outcomes. Inadequate feeding assistance and mealtime interruptions may contribute to malnutrition and poor nutritional intake during hospitalisation. Despite being widely implemented in practice in the United Kingdom and increasingly in Australia, there have been few studies examining the impact of strategies such as Protected Mealtimes and dedicated feeding assistant roles on nutritional outcomes of elderly inpatients. AIMS: The aim of this research was to implement and compare three system-level interventions designed to specifically address mealtime barriers and improve energy intakes of medical inpatients aged ≥65 years. This research also aimed to evaluate the sustainability of any changes to mealtime routines six months post-intervention and to gain an understanding of staff perceptions of the post-intervention mealtime experience. METHODS: Three mealtime assistance interventions were implemented in three medical wards at Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital: AIN-only: Additional assistant-in-nursing (AIN) with dedicated nutrition role. PM-only: Multidisciplinary approach to meals, including Protected Mealtimes. PM+AIN: Combined intervention: AIN + multidisciplinary approach to meals. An action research approach was used to carefully design and implement the three interventions in partnership with ward staff and managers. Significant time was spent in consultation with staff throughout the implementation period to facilitate ownership of the interventions and increase likelihood of successful implementation. A pre-post design was used to compare the implementation and nutritional outcomes of each intervention to a pre-intervention group. Using the same wards, eligible participants (medical inpatients aged ≥65 years) were recruited to the preintervention group between November 2007 and March 2008 and to the intervention groups between January and June 2009. The primary nutritional outcome was daily energy and protein intake, which was determined by visually estimating plate waste at each meal and mid-meal on Day 4 of admission. Energy and protein intakes were compared between the pre and post intervention groups. Data were collected on a range of covariates (demographics, nutritional status and known risk factors for poor food intake), which allowed for multivariate analysis of the impact of the interventions on nutritional intake. The provision of mealtime assistance to participants and activities of ward staff (including mealtime interruptions) were observed in the pre-intervention and intervention groups, with staff observations repeated six months post-intervention. Focus groups were conducted with nursing and allied health staff in June 2009 to explore their attitudes and behaviours in response to the three mealtime interventions. These focus group discussions were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 254 participants were recruited to the study (pre-intervention: n=115, AIN-only: n=58, PM-only: n=39, PM+AIN: n=42). Participants had a mean age of 80 years (SD 8), and 40% (n=101) were malnourished on hospital admission, 50% (n=108) had anorexia and 38% (n=97) required some assistance at mealtimes. Occasions of mealtime assistance significantly increased in all interventions (p<0.01). However, no change was seen in mealtime interruptions. No significant difference was seen in mean total energy and protein intake between the preintervention and intervention groups. However, when total kilojoule intake was compared with estimated requirements at the individual level, participants in the intervention groups were more likely to achieve adequate energy intake (OR=3.4, p=0.01), with no difference noted between interventions (p=0.29). Despite small improvements in nutritional adequacy, the majority of participants in the intervention groups (76%, n=103) had inadequate energy intakes to meet their estimated energy requirements. Patients with cognitive impairment or feeding dependency appeared to gain substantial benefit from mealtime assistance interventions. The increase in occasions of mealtime assistance by nursing staff during the intervention period was maintained six-months post-intervention. Staff focus groups highlighted the importance of clearly designating and defining mealtime responsibilities in order to provide adequate mealtime care. While the purpose of the dedicated feeding assistant was to increase levels of mealtime assistance, staff indicated that responsibility for mealtime duties may have merely shifted from nursing staff to the assistant. Implementing the multidisciplinary interventions empowered nursing staff to "protect" the mealtime from external interruptions, but further work is required to empower nurses to prioritise mealtime activities within their own work schedules. Staff reported an increase in the profile of nutritional care on all wards, with additional non-nutritional benefits noted including improved mobility and functional independence, and better identification of swallowing difficulties. IMPLICATIONS: The PhD research provides clinicians with practical strategies to immediately introduce change to deliver better mealtime care in the hospital setting, and, as such, has initiated local and state-wide roll-out of mealtime assistance programs. Improved nutritional intakes of elderly inpatients was observed; however given the modest effect size and reducing lengths of hospital stays, better nutritional outcomes may be achieved by targeting the hospital-to-home transition period. Findings from this study suggest that mealtime assistance interventions for elderly inpatients with cognitive impairment and/or functional dependency show promise.

Accurate placement of a pelvic binder improves reduction of unstable fractures of the pelvic ring

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of placement of pelvic binders and to determine whether circumferential compression at the level of the greater trochanters is the best method of reducing a symphyseal diastasis. Patients were identified by a retrospective review of all pelvic radiographs performed at a military hospital over a period of 30 months. We analysed any pelvic radiograph on which the buckle of the pelvic binder was clearly visible. The patients were divided into groups according to the position of the buckle in relation to the greater trochanters: high, trochanteric or low. Reduction of the symphyseal diastasis was measured in a subgroup of patients with an open-book fracture, which consisted of an injury to the symphysis and disruption of the posterior pelvic arch (AO/OTA 61-B/C). We identified 172 radiographs with a visible pelvic binder. Five cases were excluded due to inadequate radiographs. In 83 (50%) the binder was positioned at the level of the greater trochanters. A high position was the most common site of inaccurate placement, occurring in 65 (39%). Seventeen patients were identified as a subgroup to assess the effect of the position of the binder on reduction of the diastasis. The mean gap was 2.8 times greater (mean difference 22 mm) in the high group compared with the trochanteric group (p < 0.01). Application of a pelvic binder above the level of the greater trochanters is common and is an inadequate method of reducing pelvic fractures and is likely to delay cardiovascular recovery in these seriously injured patients.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.