A cross-calibration of chlorine isotopic measurements and suitability of seawater as the international reference material

A collection of 24 seawaters from various worldwide locations and differing depth was culled to measure their chlorine isotopic composition (delta(37)Cl). These samples cover all the oceans and large seas: Atlantic, Pacific, Indian and Antarctic oceans, Mediterranean and Red seas. This collection includes nine seawaters from three depth profiles down to 4560 mbsl. The standard deviation (2sigma) of the delta(37)Cl of this collection is +/-0.08 parts per thousand, which is in fact as large as our precision of measurement ( +/- 0.10 parts per thousand). Thus, within error, oceanic waters seem to be an homogeneous reservoir. According to our results, any seawater could be representative of Standard Mean Ocean Chloride (SMOC) and could be used as a reference standard. An extended international cross-calibration over a large range of delta(37)Cl has been completed. For this purpose, geological fluid samples of various chemical compositions and a manufactured CH3Cl gas sample, with delta(37)Cl from about -6 parts per thousand to +6 parts per thousand have been compared. Data were collected by gas source isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) at the Paris, Reading and Utrecht laboratories and by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) at the Leeds laboratory. Comparison of IRMS values over the range -5.3 parts per thousand to +1.4 parts per thousand plots on the Y=X line, showing a very good agreement between the three laboratories. On 11 samples, the trend line between Paris and Reading Universities is: delta(37)Cl(Reading)= (1.007 +/- 0.009)delta(37)Cl(Paris) - (0.040 +/- 0.025), with a correlation coefficient: R-2 = 0.999. TIMS values from Leeds University have been compared to IRMS values from Paris University over the range -3.0 parts per thousand to +6.0 parts per thousand. On six samples, the agreement between these two laboratories, using different techniques is good: delta(37)Cl(Leeds)=(1.052 +/- 0.038)delta(37)Cl(Paris) + (0.058 +/- 0.099), with a correlation coefficient: R-2 = 0.995. The present study completes a previous cross-calibration between the Leeds and Reading laboratories to compare TIMS and IRMS results (Anal. Chem. 72 (2000) 2261). Both studies allow a comparison of IRMS and TIMS techniques between delta(37)Cl values from -4.4 parts per thousand to +6.0 parts per thousand and show a good agreement: delta(37)Cl(TIMS)=(1.039 +/- 0.023)delta(37)Cl(IRMS)+(0.059 +/- 0.056), with a correlation coefficient: R-2 = 0.996. Our study shows that, for fluid samples, if chlorine isotopic compositions are near 0 parts per thousand, their measurements either by IRMS or TIMS will give comparable results within less than +/- 0.10 parts per thousand, while for delta(37)Cl values as far as 10 parts per thousand (either positive or negative) from SMOC, both techniques will agree within less than +/- 0.30 parts per thousand. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Upper Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) positive carbon-isotope event recorded in terrestrial plants

Our understanding of the ancient ocean-atmosphere system has focused on oceanic proxies. However, the study of terrestrial proxies is equally necessary to constrain our understanding of ancient climates and linkages between the terrestrial and oceanic carbon reservoirs. We have analyzed carbon-isotope ratios from fossil plant material through the Valanginian and Lower Hauterivian from a shallow-marine, ammonite-constrained succession in the Crimean Peninsula of the southern Ukraine in order to determine if the Upper Valanginian positive carbon-isotope excursion is expressed in the atmosphere. delta(13)C(plant) values fluctuate around -23% to -22% for the Valanginian-Hauterivian, except during the Upper Valanginian where delta(13)C(plant) values record a positive excursion to similar to-18%. Based upon ammonite biostratigraphy from Crimea, and in conjunction with a composite Tethyan marine delta(13)C(carb) curve, several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the delta(13)C(plant) record indicates that the atmospheric carbon reservoir was affected; (2) the defined ammonite correlations between Europe and Crimea are synchronous; and (3) a change in photosynthetic carbon-isotope fractionation, caused by a decrease in atmospheric PCO2, occurred during the Upper Valanginian Positive delta(13)C excursion. Our new data, combined with other paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information, indicate that the Upper Valanginian was a cool period (icehouse) and highlights that the Cretaceous period was interrupted by periods of cooling and was not an equable climate as previously thought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate. The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 degrees C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10 degrees of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 degrees C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time. The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as "greenhouse" and "icehouse", although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I. Observation and modelling

In this study, the oceanic regions that are associated with anomalous Ethiopian summer rains were identified and the teleconnection mechanisms that give rise to these associations have been investigated. Because of the complexities of rainfall climate in the horn of Africa, Ethiopia has been subdivided into six homogeneous rainfall zones and the influence of SST anomalies was analysed separately for each zone. The investigation made use of composite analysis and modelling experiments. Two sets of composites of atmospheric fields were generated, one based on excess/deficit rainfall anomalies and the other based on warm/cold SST anomalies in specific oceanic regions. The aim of the composite analysis was to determine the link between SST and rainfall in terms of large scale features. The modelling experiments were intended to explore the causality of these linkage. The results show that the equatorial Pacific, the midlatitude northwest Pacific and the Gulf of Guinea all exert an influence on the summer rainfall in various part of the country. The results demonstrate that different mechanisms linked to sea surface temperature control variations in rainfall in different parts of Ethiopia. This has important consequences for seasonal forecasting models which are based on statistical correlations between SST and seasonal rainfall totals. It is clear that such statistical models should take account of the local variations in teleconnections.

Orographic precipitation in the tropics: experiments in Dominica

The “natural laboratory” of mountainous Dominica (15°N) in the trade wind belt is used to study the physics of tropical orographic precipitation in its purest form, unforced by weather disturbances or by the diurnal cycle of solar heating. A cross-island line of rain gauges and 5-min radar scans from Guadeloupe reveal a large annual precipitation at high elevation (7 m yr^{−1}) and a large orographic enhancement factor (2 to 8) caused primarily by repetitive convective triggering over the windward slope. The triggering is caused by terrain-forced lifting of the conditionally unstable trade wind cloud layer. Ambient humidity fluctuations associated with open-ocean convection may play a key role. The convection transports moisture upward and causes frequent brief showers on the hilltops. The drying ratio of the full air column from precipitation is less than 1% whereas the surface air dries by about 17% from the east coast to the mountain top. On the lee side, a plunging trade wind inversion and reduced instability destroys convective clouds and creates an oceanic rain shadow.

Diurnal cycle of land surface temperature in a desert encroachment zone as observed from satellites

Climate variability in the African Soudano-Sahel savanna zone has attracted much attention because of the persistence of anomalously low rainfall. Past efforts to monitor the climate of this region have focused on rainfall and vegetation conditions, while land surface temperature (LST) has received less attention. Remote sensing of LST is feasible and possible at global scale. Most remotely sensed estimates of LST are based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) that are limited in their ability to capture the full diurnal cycle. Although more frequent observations are available from past geostationary satellites, their spatial resolution is coarser than that of polar orbiting satellites. In this study, the improved capabilities of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on the METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) instrument are used to remotely sense the LST in the African Soudano-Sahel savanna zone at a resolution of 3 km and 15 minutes. In support of the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence using the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF), GERB and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) project, African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) project and the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, the ARM Mobile Facility was deployed during 2006 in this climatically sensitive region, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate remotely sensed algorithms for deriving LST.

Predictability and skill of boreal winter forecasts made with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System II

The performance of boreal winter forecasts made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 11 Seasonal Forecasting System is investigated through analyses of ensemble hindcasts for the period 1987-2001. The predictability, or signal-to-noise ratio, associated with the forecasts, and the forecast skill are examined. On average, forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) have skill in most of the Tropics and in a few regions of the extratropics. There is broad, but not perfect, agreement between regions of high predictability and regions of high skill. However, model errors are also identified, in particular regions where the forecast ensemble spread appears too small. For individual winters the information provided by t-values, a simple measure of the forecast signal-to-noise ratio, is investigated. For 2 m surface air temperature (T2m), highest t-values are found in the Tropics but there is considerable interannual variability, and in the tropical Atlantic and Indian basins this variability is not directly tied to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. For GPH there is also large interannual variability in t-values, but these variations cannot easily be predicted from the strength of the tropical sea-surface-temperature anomalies. It is argued that the t-values for 500 hPa GPH can give valuable insight into the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere that generates predictable signals in the model. Consequently, t-values may be a useful tool for understanding, at a mechanistic level, forecast successes and failures. Lastly, the extent to which t-values are useful as a predictor of forecast skill is investigated. For T2m, t-values provide a useful predictor of forecast skill in both the Tropics and extratropics. Except in the equatorial east Pacific, most of the information in t-values is associated with interannual variability of the ensemble-mean forecast rather than interannual variability of the ensemble spread. For GPH, however, t-values provide a useful predictor of forecast skill only in the tropical Pacific region.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model

In the 1960s, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and the oceanic heat storage did not vary too much, then the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary too much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transport should be equal and opposite. This simple scenario has become known as Bjerknes compensation. A long control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) has been investigated. It was found that northern extratropical decadal anomalies of atmospheric and oceanic energy transports are significantly anticorrelated and have similar magnitudes, which is consistent with the predictions of Bjerknes compensation. ne degree of compensation in the northern extratropics was found to increase with increasing, time scale. Bjerknes compensation did not occur in the Tropics, primarily as large changes in the surface fluxes were associated with large changes in the TOA fluxes. In the ocean, the decadal variability of the energy transport is associated with fluctuations in the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. A stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to strong warming of surface temperatures in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. which results in a reduced equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient and reduced atmospheric baroclinicity. It is argued that a stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to a weakened atmospheric transient energy transport.