Numerical simulations of intense tropical storms

A high resolution general circulation model has been used to study intense tropical storms. A five-year-long global integration with a spatial resolution of 125 km has been analysed. The geographical and seasonal distribution of tropical storms agrees remarkably well with observations. The structure of individual storms also agrees with observations, but the storms are generally more extensive in coverage and less extreme than the observed ones. A few additional calculations have also been done by a very high resolution limited-area version of the same model, where the boundary conditions successively have been interpolated from the global model. These results are very realistic in many details of the structure of the storms including simulated rain-bands and an eye structure. The global model has also been used in another five-year integration to study the influence of greenhouse warming. The sea surface temperatures have been taken from a transient climate change experiment carried out with a low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The result is a significant reduction in the number of hurricanes, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Main reasons for this can be found in changes in the largescale circulation, i.e. a weakening of the Hadley circulation, and a more intense warming of the upper tropical troposphere. A similar effect can be seen during warm ENSO events, where fewer North Atlantic hurricanes have been reported.

The processing of number and gender agreement in Spanish: an event related potential investigation of the effects of structural distance

Previous research suggests that the processing of agreement is affected by the distance between the agreeing elements. However, the unique contribution of structural distance (number of intervening syntactic phrases) to the processing of agreement remains an open question, since previous investigations do not tease apart structural and linear distance (number of intervening words). We used event related potentials (ERPs) to examine the extent to which structural distance impacts the processing of Spanish number and gender agreement. Violations were realized both within the phrase and across the phrase. Across both levels of structural distance, linear distance was kept constant, as was the syntactic category of the agreeing elements. Number and gender agreement violations elicited a robust P600 between 400 and 900ms, a component associated with morphosyntactic processing. No amplitude differences were observed between number and gender violations, suggesting that the two features are processed similarly at the brain level. Within-phrase agreement yielded more positive waveforms than across-phrase agreement, both for agreement violations and for grammatical sentences (no agreement by distance interaction). These effects can be interpreted as evidence that structural distance impacts the establishment of agreement overall, consistent with sentence processing models which predict that hierarchical structure impacts the processing of syntactic dependencies. However, due to the lack of an agreement by distance interaction, the possibility cannot be ruled out that these effects are driven by differences in syntactic predictability between the within-phrase and across-phrase configurations, notably the fact that the syntactic category of the critical word was more predictable in the within-phrase conditions.

The influence of plant species number on productivity, ground coverage and floral performance in grass-free lawns

The grass-free lawn is a novel development in modern ornamental horticulture where the traditional monoculture of grass is replaced by a variety of mowing-tolerant clonal forbs. It brings floral aesthetics and a diverse species approach to the use of lawn space. How the number of constituent forb species affects the aesthetic and structural performance of grass-free lawns was investigated using grass-free lawns composed of four, six and twelve British native clonal perennial forb species. Lawn productivity was seen to increase with increasing species number but the relationship was not linear. Plant cover was dynamic in all lawn types, varied between years and was not representative of individual species' floral performance. The behaviour of component species common to all lawns suggested that lawns with 12 species show greater structural stability than the lawns with a lower species number. Visual performance in lawns with the greatest species number was lower than in lawns with fewer species, with increasing variety in floral size and individual species floral productivity leading to a trade-off between diversity and floral performance. Individual species were seen to have different aesthetic functions in grass-free lawns either by providing flowers, ground coverage or both.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

Dominant components of the Thoroughbred metabolome characterised by 1H‐NMR spectroscopy: a metabolite atlas of common biofluids

Summary Reasons for performing study: Metabonomics is emerging as a powerful tool for disease screening and investigating mammalian metabolism. This study aims to create a metabolic framework by producing a preliminary reference guide for the normal equine metabolic milieu. Objectives: To metabolically profile plasma, urine and faecal water from healthy racehorses using high resolution 1H-NMR spectroscopy and to provide a list of dominant metabolites present in each biofluid for the benefit of future research in this area. Study design: This study was performed using seven Thoroughbreds in race training at a single time-point. Urine and faecal samples were collected non-invasively and plasma was obtained from samples taken for routine clinical chemistry purposes. Methods: Biofluids were analysed using 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Metabolite assignment was achieved via a range of 1D and 2D experiments. Results: A total of 102 metabolites were assigned across the three biological matrices. A core metabonome of 14 metabolites was ubiquitous across all biofluids. All biological matrices provided a unique window on different aspects of systematic metabolism. Urine was the most populated metabolite matrix with 65 identified metabolites, 39 of which were unique to this biological compartment. A number of these were related to gut microbial host co-metabolism. Faecal samples were the most metabolically variable between animals; acetate was responsible for the majority (28%) of this variation. Short chain fatty acids were the predominant features identified within this biofluid by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Conclusions: Metabonomics provides a platform for investigating complex and dynamic interactions between the host and its consortium of gut microbes and has the potential to uncover markers for health and disease in a variety of biofluids. Inherent variation in faecal extracts along with the relative abundance of microbial-mammalian metabolites in urine and invasive nature of plasma sampling, infers that urine is the most appropriate biofluid for the purposes of metabonomic analysis.

The current status of anticoagulant resistance in rats and mice in the UK

Introduction: Resistance to anticoagulants in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) and house mice (Mus domesticus) has been studied in the UK since the early 1960s. In no other country in the world is our understanding of resistance phenomena so extensive and profound. Almost every aspect of resistance in the key rodent target species has been examined in laboratory and field trials and results obtained by independent researchers have been published. It is the principal purpose of this document to present a short synopsis of this information. More recently, however, the development of genetical techniques has provided a definitive means of detection of resistant genotypes among pest rodent populations. Preliminary information from a number of such surveys will also be presented. Resistance in Norway rats: A total of nine different anticoagulant resistance mutations (single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs) are found among Norway rats in the UK. In no other country worldwide are present so many different forms of Norway rat resistance. Among these nine SNPs, five are known to confer on rats that carry them a significant degree of resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides. These mutations are: L128Q, Y139S, L120Q, Y139C and Y139F. The latter three mutations confer, to varying degrees, practical resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, the two second-generation anticoagulants in predominant use in the UK. It is the recommendation of RRAG that bromadiolone and difenacoum should not be used against rats carrying the L120Q, Y139C and Y139F mutations because this will promote the spread of resistance and jeopardise the long-term efficacy of anticoagulants. Brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against these three genotypes but cannot presently be used because of the regulatory restriction that they can only be applied against rats that are living and feeding predominantly indoors. Our understanding of the geographical distribution of Norway rat resistance in incomplete but is rapidly increasing. In particular, the mapping of the focus of L120Q Norway rat resistance in central-southern England by DNA sequencing is well advanced. We now know that rats carrying this resistance mutation are present across a large part of the counties of Hampshire, Berkshire and Wiltshire, and the resistance spreads into Avon, Oxfordshire and Surrey. It is also found, perhaps as outlier foci, in south-west Scotland and East Sussex. L120Q is currently the most severe form of anticoagulant resistance found in Norway rats and is prevalent over a considerable part of central-southern England. A second form of advanced Norway rat resistance is conferred by the Y139C mutation. This is noteworthy because it occurs in at least four different foci that are widely geographically dispersed, namely in Dumfries and Galloway, Gloucestershire, Yorkshire and Norfolk. Once again, bromadiolone and difenacoum are not recommended for use against rats carrying this genotype and a concern of RRAG is that continued applications of resisted active substances may result in Y139C becoming more or less ubiquitous across much of the UK. Another type of advanced resistance, the Y139F mutation, is present in Kent and Sussex. This means that Norway rats, carrying some degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, are now found from the south coast of Kent, west into the city of Bristol, to Yorkshire in the north-east and to the south-west of Scotland. This difficult situation can only deteriorate further where these three genotypes exist and resisted anticoagulants are predominantly used against them. Resistance in house mice: House mouse is not so well understood but the presence in the UK of two resistant genotypes, L128S and Y139C, is confirmed. House mice are naturally tolerant to anticoagulants and such is the nature of this tolerance, and the presence of genetical resistance, that house mice resistant to the first-generation anticoagulants are considered to be widespread in the UK. Consequently, baits containing warfarin, sodium warfarin, chlorophacinone and coumatetralyl are not approved for use against mice. This regulatory position is endorsed by RRAG. Baits containing brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against house mice and may be applied in practice because house mouse infestations are predominantly indoors. There are some reports of resistance among mice in some areas to the second-generation anticoagulant bromadiolone, while difenacoum remains largely efficacious. Alternatives to anticoagulants: The use of habitat manipulation, that is the removal of harbourage, denial of the availability of food and the prevention of ingress to structures, is an essential component of sustainable rodent pest management. All are of importance in the management of resistant rodents and have the advantage of not selecting for resistant genotypes. The use of these techniques may be particularly valuable in preventing the build-up of rat infestations. However, none can be used to remove any sizeable extant rat infestation and for practical reasons their use against house mice is problematic. Few alternative chemical interventions are available in the European Union because of the removal from the market of zinc phosphide, calciferol and bromethalin. Our virtual complete reliance on the use of anticoagulants for the chemical control of rodents in the UK, and more widely in the EU, calls for improved schemes for resistance management. Of course, these might involve the use of alternatives to anticoagulant rodenticides. Also important is an increasing knowledge of the distribution of resistance mutations in rats and mice and the use of only fully effective anticoagulants against them.

Time is of the essence: a selective review of the fall and rise of brief therapy research

For compelling reasons of equity and the advance of public health, brief psychotherapy has become the dominant format in both practice and research. One consequence of this is the apparent decline of a distinct stream of brief therapy research. However, much of the agenda formerly identified with that research stream is of increasing importance to the field. Time is indeed of the essence in current psychotherapy research. For example, factors conducive to the time efficiency of brief psychodynamic therapy have been described recently. The important question ‘How much therapy is enough?’ has been addressed by studies inspired by the dose-response analysis of Howard and colleagues. The value of ultra-brief interventions has been examined. These issues are considered in a selective review, drawing in particular on the work of the Sheffield/Leeds psychotherapy of depression research group. This research treats the number of treatment sessions as an independent variable, thereby providing a causal analysis of the dose-response relationship over a range from two to 16 sessions, illuminated by a comparative analysis of change processes in treatments of different durations. Its results enable some specification of the extent and nature of incremental benefit derived from additional sessions in the psychotherapy of depression.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Participatory crop improvement: the challenges of and opportunities for institutionalisation in the Indian public research sector

This thesis considers Participatory Crop Improvement (PCI) methodologies and examines the reasons behind their continued contestation and limited mainstreaming in conventional modes of crop improvement research within National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS). In particular, it traces the experiences of a long-established research network with over 20 years of experience in developing and implementing PCI methods across South Asia, and specifically considers its engagement with the Indian NARS and associated state-level agricultural research systems. In order to address the issues surrounding PCI institutionalisation processes, a novel conceptual framework was derived from a synthesis of the literatures on Strategic Niche Management (SNM) and Learning-based Development Approaches (LBDA) to analyse the socio-technical processes and structures which constitute the PCI ‘niche’ and NARS ‘regime’. In examining the niche and regime according to their socio-technical characteristics, the framework provides explanatory power for understanding the nature of their interactions and the opportunities and barriers that exist with respect to the translation of lessons and ideas between niche and regime organisations. The research shows that in trying to institutionalise PCI methods and principles within NARS in the Indian context, PCI proponents have encountered a number of constraints related to the rigid and hierarchical structure of the regime organisations; the contractual mode of most conventional research, which inhibits collaboration with a wider group of stakeholders; and the time-limited nature of PCI projects themselves, which limits investment and hinders scaling up of the innovations. It also reveals that while the niche projects may be able to induce a ‘weak’ form of PCI institutionalisation within the Indian NARS by helping to alter their institutional culture to be more supportive of participatory plant breeding approaches and future collaboration with PCI researchers, a ‘strong’ form of PCI institutionalisation, in which NARS organisations adopt participatory methodologies to address all their crop improvement agenda, is likely to remain outside of the capacity of PCI development projects to deliver.

Restoring the azimuthal symmetry of lateral distributions of charged particles in the range of the KASCADE-Grande experiment

The reconstruction of Extensive Air Showers (EAS) observed by particle detectors at the ground is based on the characteristics of observables like the lateral particle density and the arrival times. The lateral densities, inferred for different EAS components from detector data, are usually parameterised by applying various lateral distribution functions (LDFs). The LDFs are used in turn for evaluating quantities like the total number of particles or the density at particular radial distances. Typical expressions for LDFs anticipate azimuthal symmetry of the density around the shower axis. The deviations of the lateral particle density from this assumption arising from various reasons are smoothed out in the case of compact arrays like KASCADE, but not in the case of arrays like Grande, which only sample a smaller part of the azimuthal variation. KASCADE-Grande, an extension of the former KASCADE experiment, is a multi-component Extensive Air Shower (EAS) experiment located at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Campus North), Germany. The lateral distributions of charged particles are deduced from the basic information provided by the Grande scintillators - the energy deposits - first in the observation plane, then in the intrinsic shower plane. In all steps azimuthal dependences should be taken into account. As the energy deposit in the scintillators is dependent on the angles of incidence of the particles, azimuthal dependences are already involved in the first step: the conversion from the energy deposits to the charged particle density. This is done by using the Lateral Energy Correction Function (LECF) that evaluates the mean energy deposited by a charged particle taking into account the contribution of other particles (e.g. photons) to the energy deposit. By using a very fast procedure for the evaluation of the energy deposited by various particles we prepared realistic LECFs depending on the angle of incidence of the shower and on the radial and azimuthal coordinates of the location of the detector. Mapping the lateral density from the observation plane onto the intrinsic shower plane does not remove the azimuthal dependences arising from geometric and attenuation effects, in particular for inclined showers. Realistic procedures for applying correction factors are developed. Specific examples of the bias due to neglecting the azimuthal asymmetries in the conversion from the energy deposit in the Grande detectors to the lateral density of charged particles in the intrinsic shower plane are given. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ether-Bond-Containing Ionic Liquids and the Relevance of the Ether Bond Position to Transport Properties

The ionic liquids (ILs) 1-ethoxyethyl-2,3-dimethylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, [EtO-(CH(2))(2)MMI][Tf(2)N], and N-(ethoxyethyl)-N-methylmorpholinium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, [EtO(CH(2))(2)MMor][Tf(2)N] were synthesized, and relevant properties, such as thermal stability, density, viscosity, electrochemical behavior, ionic conductivity, and self-diffusion coefficients for both ionic species, were measured and compared with those of their alkyl counterparts, 1-n-butyl-2,3-dimethylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, [BMMI][Tf(2)N], and N-n-butyl-N-methylpiperidinium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide,[BMP][Tf(2)N] and N-n-butyl-N-methylmorpholinium bis(trilfuoromethanesulfonyl)imide [BMMor][Tf(2)N][. This comparison was done to evaluate the effects caused by the presence of the ether bond in either the side chain or in the organic cation ring. The salt, LiTf(2)N, was added to the systems to estimate IL behavior with regard to lithium cation transport. Pure [EtO(CH(2))(2)MMI][Tf(2)N] and their LiTf(2)N solutions showed low viscosity and the highest conductivity among the ILs studied. The H(R) (AC conductivity/NMR calculated conductivity ratio) values showed that, after addition of LiTf(2)N, ILs containing the ether bond seemed to have a greater number of charged species. Structural reasons could explain these high observed HR values for [EtO(CH(2))(2)MMor][Tf(2)N].

Genetic Control of Residual Variance for Teat Number in Pigs

The genetic improvement in litter size in pigs has been substantial during the last 10-15 years. The number of teats on the sow must increase as well to meet the needs of the piglets, because each piglet needs access to its own teat. We applied a genetic heterogeneity model on teat numberin sows, and estimated medium-high heritability for teat number (0.5), but low heritability for residual variance (0.05), indicating that selection for reduced variance might have very limited effect. A numerically positive correlation (0.8) between additive genetic breeding values for mean and for variance was found, but because of the low heritability for residual variance, the variance will increase very slowly with the mean.

Guides of the Falu Mine : Perceptions of Differences and Similarities onDomestic and International Visitors

Industrial heritage tourism has been in focus for many academic studies and tourism is an alternative developmental tool for mines and contributes to their economic success. This thesis is about the Falu Mine in Dalarna, Sweden, which has World Heritage status since 2001 and is one of the biggest attractions in the region. Its history and cultural importance are reasons for the importance of preserving the heritage. The Falu Mine is under the management of the Great Copper Mountain Trust and one of their ambitions is to ensure the continuous popularity among domestic and international visitors. In order to gain a better understanding of the visitors and to find strategies to improve performance, a visitor survey has been conducted in the summer of 2011. It is the authors believe that the guides of the Falu Mine have the best available insight and that their perceptions help to add to the understanding about the visitors. Therefore, this thesis aims to explore the perceptions of the guides about their visitors, to investigate how the perceptions correspond to the statistical results and to study if there are any differences between domestic and international visitors. The mixed methods approach will increase the depth and accuracy of the results, by linking qualitative with quantitative data. The results show that differences between domestic and international visitors exist, both proven by interviews with the guides and the visitor survey. These differences occur in the factors, such as level of education of the visitors, group size and number of children in the group, knowledge of the visitors prior to and after the visit, sources of information and the fulfillment of the visitor expectations. The perceptions emphasize how these differences impact the guided tours. The guides of the Falu Mine have to be aware of those differences in order to adjust the tour accordingly, as well as the management of the Falu Mine can use this knowledge in order to identify strategies for improving performance.