Limited effect of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on molecular diversity in a rain forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae

To examine the effects of recent habitat fragmentation, we assayed genetic diversity in a rain forest endemic lizard, the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), from seven forest fragments and five sites in continuous forest on the Atherton tableland of northeastern Queensland, Australia. The rain forest in this region was fragmented by logging and clearing for dairy farms in the early 1900s and most forest fragments studied have been isolated for 50-80 years or nine to 12 skink generations. We genotyped 411 individuals at nine microsatellite DNA loci and found fewer alleles per locus in prickly forest skinks from small rain forest fragments and a lower ratio of allele number to allele size range in forest fragments than in continuous forest, indicative of a decrease in effective population size. In contrast, and as expected for populations with small neighbourhood sizes, neither heterozygosity nor variance in allele size differed between fragments and sites in continuous forests. Considering measures of among population differentiation, there was no increase in F-ST among fragments and a significant isolation by distance pattern was identified across all 12 sites. However, the relationship between genetic (F-ST) and geographical distance was significantly stronger for continuous forest sites than for fragments, consistent with disruption of gene flow among the latter. The observed changes in genetic diversity within and among populations are small, but in the direction predicted by the theory of genetic erosion in recently fragmented populations. The results also illustrate the inherent difficulty in detecting genetic consequences of recent habitat fragmentation, even in genetically variable species, and especially when effective population size and dispersal rates are low.

Mate choice in the brown thornbill (Acanthiza pusilla): are settlement decisions, divorce and extrapair mating complementary strategies?

In socially monogamous birds, females may express mate preferences when they first select a breeding partner, through divorce and subsequent breeding dispersal to a new partner and through extrapair mating. We examined settlement patterns, divorce and breeding dispersal in a sedentary Australian passerine, the brown thornbill (Acanthiza pusilla), in relation to two traits known to influence extrapair paternity (male age and male size). Settlement decisions, divorce and territory switching behaviour were all female strategies that reduced their likelihood of breeding with 1-year-old males. Females preferred to settle in territories with 2+ -year-old males, were more likely to divorce 1-year-old males, and only switched territories if they had an opportunity to form a new pair bond with an old male. In contrast, female settlement and divorce decisions were not influenced by male size. Female thornbills obtain a direct benefit from preferring older males as social mates because breeding success improves with male age in brown thornbills. Nevertheless, divorce rates in this species were low (14% of pair bonds were terminated by divorce), and individuals rarely switched territories following the death of a mate. Both of these mating strategies appeared to be primarily constrained by the distance adults moved to initiate a new pair bond (1-2 territories) and by the limited availability of unpaired older males in the immediate neighbourhood.

Fine-scale spatial genetic correlation analyses reveal strong female philopatry within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby colony in southeast Queensland

We combine spatial data on home ranges of individuals and microsatellite markers to examine patterns of fine-scale spatial genetic structure and dispersal within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colony at Hurdle Creek Valley, Queensland. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were once abundant and widespread throughout the rocky terrain of southeastern Australia; however, populations are nearly extinct in the south of their range and in decline elsewhere. We use pairwise relatedness measures and a recent multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the hypotheses that in this species, within-colony dispersal is male-biased and that female philopatry results in spatial clusters of related females within the colony. We provide clear evidence for strong female philopatry and male-biased dispersal within this rock-wallaby colony. There was a strong, significant negative correlation between pairwise relatedness and geographical distance of individual females along only 800 m of cliff line. Spatial genetic autocorrelation analyses showed significant positive correlation for females in close proximity to each other and revealed a genetic neighbourhood size of only 600 m for females. Our study is the first to report on the fine-scale spatial genetic structure within a rock-wallaby colony and we provide the first robust evidence for strong female philopatry and spatial clustering of related females within this taxon. We discuss the ecological and conservation implications of our findings for rock-wallabies, as well as the importance of fine-scale spatial genetic patterns in studies of dispersal behaviour.

Adsorption of quadrupolar, diatomic nitrogen onto graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit-shaped carbon pores. Effects of surface mediation

In this paper, we study the effect of solid surface mediation on the intermolecular potential energy of nitrogen, and its impact on the adsorption of nitrogen on a graphitized carbon black surface and in carbon slit-shaped pores. This effect arises from the lower effective interaction potential energy between two particles close to the surface compared to the potential energy of the same two particles when they are far away from the surface. A simple equation is proposed to calculate the reduction factor and this is used in the Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation of nitrogen adsorption on graphitized thermal carbon black. With this modification, the GCMC simulation results agree extremely well with the experimental data over a wide range of pressure; the simulation results with the original potential energy (i.e. no surface mediation) give rise to a shoulder in the neighbourhood of monolayer coverage and a significant over-prediction of the second and higher layer coverages. The influence of this surface mediation on the dependence of the pore-filling pressure on the pore width is also studied. It is shown that such surface mediation has a significant effect on the pore-filling pressure. This implies that the use of the local isotherms obtained from the potential model without surface mediation could give rise to a serious error in the determination of the pore-size distribution.

Residents' perceptions of walkability attributes in objectively different neighbourhoods: a pilot study

Physical attributes of local environments may influence walking. We used a modified version of the Neighbourhood Environment Walkability Scale to compare residents' perceptions of the attributes of two neighbourhoods that differed on measures derived from Geographic Information System databases. Residents of the high-walkable neighbourhood rated relevant attributes of residential density, land-use mix (access and diversity) and street connectivity, consistently higher than did residents of the low-walkable neighbourhood. Traffic safety and safety from crime attributes did not differ. Perceived neighbourhood environment characteristics had moderate to high test retest reliabilities. Neighbourhood environment attribute ratings may be used in population surveys and other studies. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective study of individual, social, and environmental predictors of physical activity: women's leisure running

Background: Understanding and influencing the determinants of physical activity is an important public health challenge. We used prospective data to examine the influence of individual, social, and environmental factors on physical activity behaviour, using regular running as the behavioural model. Methods: Over 500 middle-aged women completed two consecutive questionnaires in 2000 and 2002. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine factors predicting adoption of and regression from regular leisure-time running during the follow-up. Results: Women who frequently used behavioural change skills were more likely to adopt regular running (OR=4.0, CI=1.7-9.5). There was an interaction between the enjoyment of running and family support: those who rated enjoyment of running high and reported high family support were less likely to adopt running (OR= 0.2, CI = 0.1-0.5). Women who reported infrequent use of motives were more likely (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.6-6.9) to regress from regular running. There was an interaction between perceived health and the neighbourhood environment: those who perceived themselves to be in poor health and had an unattractive neighbourhood were more likely (OR = 2.7, CI = 0.9-8.3) to regress from regular running. Conclusions: Behavioural skills and enjoyment may be of particular importance for the adoption of regular activity; social support and an aesthetically attractive neighbourhood are likely to have a key role in encouraging maintenance. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Removable singularities for p-harmonic maps: The subquadratic case

We prove a removable singularity theorem for p-harmonic maps in the subquadratic case. The theorem states that an isolated singularity of a weakly p-harmonic map is removable if the energy is sufficiently small in a neighbourhood of the singularity.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America

Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian retrieval of scatterometer wind fields

The retrieval of wind fields from scatterometer observations has traditionally been separated into two phases; local wind vector retrieval and ambiguity removal. Operationally, a forward model relating wind vector to backscatter is inverted, typically using look up tables, to retrieve up to four local wind vector solutions. A heuristic procedure, using numerical weather prediction forecast wind vectors and, often, some neighbourhood comparison is then used to select the correct solution. In this paper we develop a Bayesian method for wind field retrieval, and show how a direct local inverse model, relating backscatter to wind vector, improves the wind vector retrieval accuracy. We compare these results with the operational U.K. Meteorological Office retrievals, our own CMOD4 retrievals and a neural network based local forward model retrieval. We suggest that the neural network based inverse model, which is extremely fast to use, improves upon current forward models when used in a variational data assimilation scheme.

On the relationship between Bayesian error bars and the input data density

We investigate the dependence of Bayesian error bars on the distribution of data in input space. For generalized linear regression models we derive an upper bound on the error bars which shows that, in the neighbourhood of the data points, the error bars are substantially reduced from their prior values. For regions of high data density we also show that the contribution to the output variance due to the uncertainty in the weights can exhibit an approximate inverse proportionality to the probability density. Empirical results support these conclusions.

Retail restructuring and consumer choice 2:understanding consumer choice at the household level

This paper complements the preceding one by Clarke et al, which looked at the long-term impact of retail restructuring on consumer choice at the local level. Whereas the previous paper was based on quantitative evidence from survey research, this paper draws on the qualitative phases of the same three-year study, and in it we aim to understand how the changing forms of retail provision are experienced at the neighbourhood and household level. The empirical material is drawn from focus groups, accompanied shopping trips, diaries, interviews, and kitchen visits with eight households in two contrasting neighbourhoods in the Portsmouth area. The data demonstrate that consumer choice involves judgments of taste, quality, and value as well as more ‘objective’ questions of convenience, price, and accessibility. These judgments are related to households’ differential levels of cultural capital and involve ethical and moral considerations as well as more mundane considerations of practical utility. Our evidence suggests that many of the terms that are conventionally advanced as explanations of consumer choice (such as ‘convenience’, ‘value’, and ‘habit’) have very different meanings according to different household circumstances. To understand these meanings requires us to relate consumers’ at-store behaviour to the domestic context in which their consumption choices are embedded. Bringing theories of practice to bear on the nature of consumer choice, our research demonstrates that consumer choice between stores can be understood in terms of accessibility and convenience, whereas choice within stores involves notions of value, price, and quality. We also demonstrate that choice between and within stores is strongly mediated by consumers’ household contexts, reflecting the extent to which shopping practices are embedded within consumers’ domestic routines and complex everyday lives. The paper concludes with a summary of the overall findings of the project, and with a discussion of the practical and theoretical implications of the study.

The public health role of community pharmacies

This article describes the experience of developing an enhanced public health role for a community pharmacy in the Castle Vale estate in Birmingham. It shows that the neighbourhood-based regeneration context of Castle Vale has created a stimulating setting for an ambitious and innovative pharmacy company to demonstrate what might be possible on a much wider scale in the UK. A core ethos of the Castle Vale regeneration initiative has been public-private partnership and this project reveals some 'critical success factors' for on-the-ground achievement.