On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Synthesis of optically complex core-shell colloidal suspensions: Pathways to multiplexed biological screening

The ability to generate enormous random libraries of DNA probes via split-and-mix synthesis on solid supports is an important biotechnological application of colloids that has not been fully utilized to date. To discriminate between colloid-based DNA probes each colloidal particle must be 'encoded' so it is distinguishable from all other particles. To this end, we have used novel particle synthesis strategies to produce large numbers of optically encoded particle suitable for DNA library synthesis. Multifluorescent particles with unique and reproducible optical signatures (i.e., fluorescence and light-scattering attributes) suitable for high-throughput flow cytometry have been produced. In the spectroscopic study presented here, we investigated the optical characteristics of multi-fluorescent particles that were synthesized by coating silica 'core' particles with up to six different fluorescent dye shells alternated with non-fluorescent silica 'spacer' shells. It was observed that the diameter of the particles increased by up to 20% as a result of the addition of twelve concentric shells and that there was a significant reduction in fluorescence emission intensities from inner shells as an increasing number of shells were deposited.

On the evaluation of some differential formulations for the pom-pom constitutive model

In recent years, progress has been made in modelling long chain branched polymers by the introduction of the so-called pompom model. Initially developed by McLeish and Larson (1998), the model has undergone several improvements or alterations, leading to the development of new formulations. Some of these formulations however suffer from certain mathematical defects. The purpose of the present paper is to review some of the formulations of the pom-pom constitutive model, and to investigate their possible mathematical defects. Next, an alternative formulation is proposed, which does not appear to exhibit mathematical defects, and we explore its modelling performance by comparing the predictions with experiments in non-trivial rheometric flows of an LDPE melt. The selected rheometric flows are the double step strain, as well as the large amplitude oscillatory shear experiments. For LAOS experiments, the comparison involves the use of Fourier-transform analysis.

A new wavelet-based adaptive method for solving population balance equations

A new wavelet-based adaptive framework for solving population balance equations (PBEs) is proposed in this work. The technique is general, powerful and efficient without the need for prior assumptions about the characteristics of the processes. Because there are steeply varying number densities across a size range, a new strategy is developed to select the optimal order of resolution and the collocation points based on an interpolating wavelet transform (IWT). The proposed technique has been tested for size-independent agglomeration, agglomeration with a linear summation kernel and agglomeration with a nonlinear kernel. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions (PSDs) are in excellent agreement. Further work on the solution of the general population balance equations with nucleation, growth and agglomeration and the solution of steady-state population balance equations will be presented in this framework. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Capital social: conceitos e contribui????es ??s pol??ticas p??blicas

Por meio da discuss??o cr??tica dos principais conceitos, o texto explora as contribui????es que a operacionaliza????o de capital social poderia aportar ??s pol??ticas p??blicas. H?? uma rede que pode ser fortalecida ou mesmo criada visando ao empoderamento das pessoas para que possam interferir nas decis??es p??blicas, melhorar a qualidade de vida e otimizar os efeitos das pol??ticas p??blicas. Esse potencial vem sendo ressaltado em ??reas como desenvolvimento social, mercado de trabalho, integra????o de imigrantes, multiculturalismo e diversidade, juventude, preven????o de crimes, sa??de, comunidades ind??genas e participa????o c??vica.

Rendering peacekeeping instrumental? The Brazilian approach to United Nations peacekeeping during the Lula da Silva years (2003-2010)

The article analyses how Brazilian state actions and policies regarding peace operations during the Presidency of Lula da Silva relate to the country's positions and attitudes towards United Nations peacekeeping. It argues that the inconsistencies identified on the Brazilian positions reflect the lack of a clear strategic horizon guiding the country's participation in UN peacekeeping, which consequentially hinders the country emergence as a great power.

Multi-level governance and social cohesion in the European Union: the assessment of local agents, a study case inside Galicia

Implementing multi-level governance has been a key priority in EU cohesion policy. This study assesses the perceived achievements and shortcomings in implementing European Social Fund by analyzing the deficits and weaknesses as well as the poor participation of local agents who are in direct contact with the beneficiaries in order to design and implement this fund, which is the main financial instrument of EU social policy.

Multi-scale modeling of the mechanical behavior of polymer-based materials

Polymers have become the reference material for high reliability and performance applications. In this work, a multi-scale approach is proposed to investigate the mechanical properties of polymeric based material under strain. To achieve a better understanding of phenomena occurring at the smaller scales, a coupling of a Finite Element Method (FEM) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) modeling in an iterative procedure was employed, enabling the prediction of the macroscopic constitutive response. As the mechanical response can be related to the local microstructure, which in turn depends on the nano-scale structure, the previous described multi-scale method computes the stress-strain relationship at every analysis point of the macro-structure by detailed modeling of the underlying micro- and meso-scale deformation phenomena. The proposed multi-scale approach can enable prediction of properties at the macroscale while taking into consideration phenomena that occur at the mesoscale, thus offering an increased potential accuracy compared to traditional methods.

Coupling Mechanical and Electrical Behavior in the Multi-scale Simulation of Polymer-based CNT Nanocomposites

A numeric model has been proposed to investigate the mechanical and electrical properties of a polymeric/carbon nanotube (CNT) composite material subjected to a deformation force. The reinforcing phase affects the behavior of the polymeric matrix and depends on the nanofiber aspect ratio and preferential orientation. The simulations show that the mechanical behavior of a computer generated material (CGM) depends on fiber length and initial orientation in the polymeric matrix. It is also shown how the conductivity of the polymer/CNT composite can be calculated for each time step of applied stress, effectively providing the ability to simulate and predict strain-dependent electrical behavior of CNT nanocomposites.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

COORDINSPECTOR: a tool for extracting coordination data from legacy code

More and more current software systems rely on non trivial coordination logic for combining autonomous services typically running on different platforms and often owned by different organizations. Often, however, coordination data is deeply entangled in the code and, therefore, difficult to isolate and analyse separately. COORDINSPECTOR is a software tool which combines slicing and program analysis techniques to isolate all coordination elements from the source code of an existing application. Such a reverse engineering process provides a clear view of the actually invoked services as well as of the orchestration patterns which bind them together. The tool analyses Common Intermediate Language (CIL) code, the native language of Microsoft .Net Framework. Therefore, the scope of application of COORDINSPECTOR is quite large: potentially any piece of code developed in any of the programming languages which compiles to the .Net Framework. The tool generates graphical representations of the coordination layer together and identifies the underlying business process orchestrations, rendering them as Orc specifications

Predicting the mechanical behavior of amorphous polymeric materials under strain through multi-scale simulation

Polymeric materials have become the reference material for high reliability and performance applications. However, their performance in service conditions is difficult to predict, due in large part to their inherent complex morphology, which leads to non-linear and anisotropic behavior, highly dependent on the thermomechanical environment under which it is processed. In this work, a multiscale approach is proposed to investigate the mechanical properties of polymeric-based material under strain. To achieve a better understanding of phenomena occurring at the smaller scales, the coupling of a finite element method (FEM) and molecular dynamics (MD) modeling, in an iterative procedure, was employed, enabling the prediction of the macroscopic constitutive response. As the mechanical response can be related to the local microstructure, which in turn depends on the nano-scale structure, this multiscale approach computes the stress-strain relationship at every analysis point of the macro-structure by detailed modeling of the underlying micro- and meso-scale deformation phenomena. The proposed multiscale approach can enable prediction of properties at the macroscale while taking into consideration phenomena that occur at the mesoscale, thus offering an increased potential accuracy compared to traditional methods.

Preliminary clinical trial in percutaneous nephrolithotomy using a real-time navigation system for percutaneous kidney access

Background: Precise needle puncture of renal calyces is a challenging and essential step for successful percutaneous nephrolithotomy. This work tests and evaluates, through a clinical trial, a real-time navigation system to plan and guide percutaneous kidney puncture. Methods: A novel system, entitled i3DPuncture, was developed to aid surgeons in establishing the desired puncture site and the best virtual puncture trajectory, by gathering and processing data from a tracked needle with optical passive markers. In order to navigate and superimpose the needle to a preoperative volume, the patient, 3D image data and tracker system were previously registered intraoperatively using seven points that were strategically chosen based on rigid bone structures and nearby kidney area. In addition, relevant anatomical structures for surgical navigation were automatically segmented using a multi-organ segmentation algorithm that clusters volumes based on statistical properties and minimum description length criterion. For each cluster, a rendering transfer function enhanced the visualization of different organs and surrounding tissues. Results: One puncture attempt was sufficient to achieve a successful kidney puncture. The puncture took 265 seconds, and 32 seconds were necessary to plan the puncture trajectory. The virtual puncture path was followed correctively until the needle tip reached the desired kidney calyceal. Conclusions: This new solution provided spatial information regarding the needle inside the body and the possibility to visualize surrounding organs. It may offer a promising and innovative solution for percutaneous punctures.

Multi-centre validation of an automatic algorithm for fast 4D myocardial segmentation in cine CMR datasets

Quantitative analysis of cine cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images for the assessment of global left ventricular morphology and function remains a routine task in clinical cardiology practice. To date, this process requires user interaction and therefore prolongs the examination (i.e. cost) and introduces observer variability. In this study, we sought to validate the feasibility, accuracy, and time efficiency of a novel framework for automatic quantification of left ventricular global function in a clinical setting.