Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Rare variants in LRRK1 and Parkinson's disease

Approximately 20 % of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) report a positive family history. Yet, a large portion of causal and disease-modifying variants is still unknown. We used exome sequencing in two affected individuals from a family with late-onset PD to identify 15 potentially causal variants. Segregation analysis and frequency assessment in 862 PD cases and 1,014 ethnically matched controls highlighted variants in EEF1D and LRRK1 as the best candidates. Mutation screening of the coding regions of these genes in 862 cases and 1,014 controls revealed several novel non-synonymous variants in both genes in cases and controls. An in silico multi-model bioinformatics analysis was used to prioritize identified variants in LRRK1 for functional follow- up. However, protein expression, subcellular localization, and cell viability were not affected by the identified variants. Although it has yet to be proven conclusively that variants in LRRK1 are indeed causative of PD, our data strengthen a possible role for LRRK1 in addition to LRRK2 in the genetic underpinnings of PD but, at the same time, highlight the difficulties encountered in the study of rare variants identified by next-generation sequencing in diseases with autosomal dominant or complex patterns of inheritance.

Youth unemployment and vocational training

This paper focuses on the determinants of the labor market situation of young people in developed countries and the developing world, with a particular emphasis on the role of vocational training and education policies. We highlight the role of demographic factors, economic growth and labor market institutions in explaining young people's transition into work. Subsequently, we assess differences between the setup and functioning of the vocational education and training policies across major world regions as an important driver of differential labor market situation of youth. Based on our analysis, we argue in favor of vocational education and training systems combining work experience and general education and provide some policy recommendations regarding the implementation of education and training systems adapted to a country's economic and institutional context.

Community projects: an experimental analysis of a fair implementation process

We define and experimentally test a public provision mechanism that meets three basic ethical requirements and allows community members to influence, via monetary bids, which of several projects is implemented. For each project, participants are assigned personal values, which can be positive or negative. We provide either public or private information about personal values. This produces two distinct public provision games, which are experimentally implemented and analyzed for various projects. In spite of the complex experimental task, participants do not rely on bidding their own personal values as an obvious simple heuristic whose general acceptance would result in fair and efficient outcomes. Rather, they rely on strategic underbidding. Although underbidding is affected by projects’ characteristics, the provision mechanism mostly leads to the implementation of the most efficient project.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Permanent Genetic Resources added to Molecular Ecology Resources Database 1 May 2009-31 July 2009

This article documents the addition of 512 microsatellite marker loci and nine pairs of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) sequencing primers to the Molecular Ecology Resources Database. Loci were developed for the following species: Alcippe morrisonia morrisonia, Bashania fangiana, Bashania fargesii, Chaetodon vagabundus, Colletes floralis, Coluber constrictor flaviventris, Coptotermes gestroi, Crotophaga major, Cyprinella lutrensis, Danaus plexippus, Fagus grandifolia, Falco tinnunculus, Fletcherimyia fletcheri, Hydrilla verticillata, Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus, Leavenworthia alabamica, Marmosops incanus, Miichthys miiuy, Nasua nasua, Noturus exilis, Odontesthes bonariensis, Quadrula fragosa, Pinctada maxima, Pseudaletia separata, Pseudoperonospora cubensis, Podocarpus elatus, Portunus trituberculatus, Rhagoletis cerasi, Rhinella schneideri, Sarracenia alata, Skeletonema marinoi, Sminthurus viridis, Syngnathus abaster, Uroteuthis (Photololigo) chinensis, Verticillium dahliae, Wasmannia auropunctata, and Zygochlamys patagonica. These loci were cross-tested on the following species: Chaetodon baronessa, Falco columbarius, Falco eleonorae, Falco naumanni, Falco peregrinus, Falco subbuteo, Didelphis aurita, Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops paulensis, Monodelphis Americana, Odontesthes hatcheri, Podocarpus grayi, Podocarpus lawrencei, Podocarpus smithii, Portunus pelagicus, Syngnathus acus, Syngnathus typhle,Uroteuthis (Photololigo) edulis, Uroteuthis (Photololigo) duvauceli and Verticillium albo-atrum. This article also documents the addition of nine sequencing primer pairs and sixteen allele specific primers or probes for Oncorhynchus mykiss and Oncorhynchus tshawytscha; these primers and assays were cross-tested in both species.

Use of Information Visualization Methods Eliminating Cross Talk in Multiple Sensing Units Investigated for a Light-Addressable Potentiometric Sensor

The integration of nanostructured films containing biomolecules and silicon-based technologies is a promising direction for reaching miniaturized biosensors that exhibit high sensitivity and selectivity. A challenge, however, is to avoid cross talk among sensing units in an array with multiple sensors located on a small area. In this letter, we describe an array of 16 sensing units, of a light-addressable potentiometric sensor (LAPS), which was made with layer-by-Layer (LbL) films of a poly(amidomine) dendrimer (PAMAM) and single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs), coated with a layer of the enzyme penicillinase. A visual inspection of the data from constant-current measurements with liquid samples containing distinct concentrations of penicillin, glucose, or a buffer indicated a possible cross talk between units that contained penicillinase and those that did not. With the use of multidimensional data projection techniques, normally employed in information Visualization methods, we managed to distinguish the results from the modified LAPS, even in cases where the units were adjacent to each other. Furthermore, the plots generated with the interactive document map (IDMAP) projection technique enabled the distinction of the different concentrations of penicillin, from 5 mmol L(-1) down to 0.5 mmol L(-1). Data visualization also confirmed the enhanced performance of the sensing units containing carbon nanotubes, consistent with the analysis of results for LAPS sensors. The use of visual analytics, as with projection methods, may be essential to handle a large amount of data generated in multiple sensor arrays to achieve high performance in miniaturized systems.

Capacitive electrolyte-insulator-semiconductor structures functionalised with a polyelectrolyte/enzyme multilayer: New strategy for enhanced field-effect biosensing

A novel strategy for enhanced field-effect biosensing using capacitive electrolyte-insulator-semiconductor (EIS) structures functionalised with pH-responsive weak polyelectrolyte/enzyme or dendrimer/enzyme multilayers is presented. The feasibility of the proposed approach is exemplarily demonstrated by realising a penicillin biosensor based on a capacitive p-Si-SiO(2) EIS structure functionalised with a poly(allylamine hydrochloride) (PAH)/penicillinase and a poly(amidoamine) dendrimer/penicillinase multilayer. The developed sensors response to changes in both the local pH value near the gate surface and the charge of macromolecules induced via enzymatic reaction, resulting in a higher sensitivity. For comparison, an EIS penicillin biosensor with adsorptively immobilised penicillinase has been also studied. The highest penicillin sensitivity of 100 mV/dec has been observed for the EIS sensor functionalised with the PAH/penicillinase multilayer. The lower and upper detection limit was around 20 mu M and 10 mM, respectively. In addition, an incorporation of enzymes in a multilayer prepared by layer-by-layer technique provides a larger amount of immobilised enzymes per sensor area, reduces enzyme leaching effects and thus, enhances the biosensor lifetime (the loss of penicillin sensitivity after 2 months was 10-12%). (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Layer-by-Layer Assembly of Carbon Nanotubes Incorporated in Light-Addressable Potentiometric Sensors

The integration of carbon nanotubes in conjunction with a chemical or biological recognition element into a semiconductor field-effect device (FED) may lead to new (bio)chemical sensors. In this study, we present a new concept to develop field-effect-based sensors, using a light-addressable potentiometric sensor (LAPS) platform modified with layer-by-layer (LbL) films of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) and polyamidoamine (PAMAM) dendrimers. Film growth was monitored for each layer adsorbed on the LAPS chip by Measuring current-voltage (IIV) curves. The morphology of the films was analyzed via atomic force microscopy (AFM) and field-emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), revealing the formation of a highly interconnected nanostructure of SWNTs-network into the dendrimer layers. Constant current (CC) Measurements showed that the incorporation of the PAMAM/SWNT LbL film containing LIP to 6 bilayers onto the LAPS Structure has a high pH sensitivity of ca. 58 mV/pH. The biosensing ability of the devices was tested for penicillin G via adsorptive immobilization of the enzyme penicillinase atop the LgL film. LAPS architectures modified with the LbL film exhibited higher sensitivity, ca. 100 mV/decade, in comparison to ca. 79 mV/decade for all unmodified LAPS, which demonstrates the potential application of the CNT-LbL Structure in field-effect-based (bio)chemical sensors.

Orbitally driven east-west antiphasing of South American precipitation

The variations of tropical precipitation are antiphased between the hemispheres on orbital timescales. This antiphasing arises through the alternating strength of incoming solar radiation in the two hemispheres, which affects monsoon intensity and hence the position of the meridional atmospheric circulation of the Hadley cells(1-4). Here we compare an oxygen isotopic record recovered from a speleothem from northeast Brazil for the past 26,000 years with existing reconstructions of precipitation in tropical South America(5-8). During the Holocene, we identify a similar, but zonally oriented, antiphasing of precipitation within the same hemisphere: northeast Brazil experiences humid conditions during low summer insolation and aridity when summer insolation is high, whereas the rest of southern tropical South America shows opposite characteristics. Simulations with a general circulation model that incorporates isotopic variations support this pattern as well as the link to insolation-driven monsoon activity. Our results suggest that convective heating over tropical South America and associated adjustments in large-scale subsidence over northeast Brazil lead to a remote forcing of the South American monsoon, which determines most of the precipitation changes in the region on orbital timescales.

Hästfot, bockfot oder horbock? : Verhaltensweisen zum Stil in schwedischen Übersetzungen von Kleists Der zerbrochene Krug

In dieser Arbeit werden drei schwedische Übersetzungen von Kleists Komödie Der zerbrochene Krug in Bezug auf die Verhaltensweisen zum Stil analysiert, die in den Übersetzungen zum Ausdruck kommen. Die Analyse betrifft vor allem solche stilistischen Mittel, die Werner Koller formal-ästhetische Qualitäten nennt, so wie Sprachspiel, den Blankvers oder Metaphorik. Ich habe einerseits versucht zu entscheiden, ob die Übersetzungen des betreffenden Stilmittels in erster Linie ziel- oder ausgangssprachlich ausgerichtet sind, andererseits inwiefern der stilistische Aspekt bei den Übersetzern überhaupt einen hohen Stellenwert hat oder ob er pragmatischen Rücksichten den Vorrang lassen muss. Die Übersetzungen weisen große Unterschiede auf. In Nils Personnes Übersetzung hat die Stiltreue im Verhältnis zur pragmatischen Adaption einen sehr hohen Stellenwert und er versucht den Stil durch ausgangssprachliche Mittel zu bewahren. In Carl-Edward Nattséns Übersetzung dagegen hat die pragmatische Adaption den höchsten Stellenwert, doch in den Fällen, wo er den Stil überhaupt wiedergibt, tut er das abwechselnd mit ziel- bzw. ausgangssprachlichen Mitteln. Nur in Horace Engdahls Übersetzung fällt eine überwiegend zielsprachliche Ausrichtung mit einem hohen Stellenwert des stilistischen Aspekts zusammen und nur dann wird der Stil im Sinne Kollers formal-ästhetischer Qualitäten in einem höheren Grad wiedergegeben. Die verschiedenen Strategien können mit den verschiedenen Zwecken der Übersetzer zusammenhängen, sowie mit den Übersetzungsidealen, die vorherrschend waren, als die Übersetzungen geschrieben wurden