Business process simulation in virtual worlds

This is an invited presentation made as a short preview of the virtual environment research work being undertaken at QUT in the Business Process Management (BPM) research group, known as BPMVE. Three projects are covered, spatial process visualisation, with applications to airport check-in processes, collaborative process modelling using a virtual world BPMN editing tool and business process simulation in virtual worlds using Open Simulator and the YAWL workflow system. In addition, the relationship of this work to Organisational Psychology is briefly explored. Full Video/Audio is available at: http://www.youtube.com/user/BPMVE#p/u/1/rp506c3pPms

Human resource behaviour simulation in business processes

The structure and dynamics of a modern business environment are very hard to model using traditional methods. Such complexity raises challenges to effective business analysis and improvement. The importance of applying business process simulation to analyze and improve business activities has been widely recognized. However, one remaining challenge is the development of approaches to human resource behavior simulation. To address this problem, we describe a novel simulation approach where intelligent agents are used to simulate human resources by performing allocated work from a workflow management system. The behavior of the intelligent agents is driven a by state transition mechanism called a Hierarchical Task Network (HTN). We demonstrate and validate our simulator via a medical treatment process case study. Analysis of the simulation results shows that the behavior driven by the HTN is consistent with design of the workflow model. We believe these preliminary results support the development of more sophisticated agent-based human resource simulation systems.

Numerical simulation of flow in a photocatalytic reactor containing baffles

In this study a new immobilized flat plate photocatalytic reactor for wastewater treatment has been investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The reactor consists of a reactor inlet, a reactive section where the catalyst is coated, and outlet parts. For simulation, the reactive section of the reactor was modelled with an array of baffles. In order to optimize the fluid mixing and reactor design, this study attempts to investigate the influence of baffles with differing heights on the flow field of the flat plate reactor. The results obtained from the simulation of a baffled flat plate reactor hydrodynamics for differing baffle heights for certain positions are presented. Under the conditions simulated, the qualitative flow features, such as the distribution of local stream lines, velocity contours, and high shear region, boundary layers separation, vortex formation, and the underlying mechanism are examined. At low and high Re numbers, the influence of baffle heights on the distribution of species mass fraction of a model pollutant are also highlighted. The simulation of qualitative and quantitative properties of fluid dynamics in a baffled reactor provides valuable insight to fully understand the effect of baffles and their role on the flow pattern, behaviour, and features of wastewater treatment using a photocatalytic reactor.

CFD Simulation of turbulence promoters in a water treatment reactor

A new immobilized flat plate photocatalytic reactor for wastewater treatment has been proposed in this study to avoid subsequent catalyst removal from the treated water. The reactor consists of an inlet, reactive section where catalyst is coated and an outlet parts. In order to optimize the fluid mixing and reactor design, this study aims to investigate the influence of baffles and its arrangement on the flat plate reactor hydrodynamics using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. For simulation, an array of baffles acting as turbulence promoters is inserted in the reactive zone of the reactor. In this regard, results obtained from the simulation of a baffled- flat plate photoreactor hydrodynamics for different baffle positions, heights and intervals are presented utilizing RNG k-ε turbulence model. Under the conditions simulated, the qualitative flow features, such as the development and separation of boundary layers, vortex formation, the presence of high shear regions and recirculation zones, and the underlying mechanism are examined. The influence of various baffle sizes on the distribution of pollutant concentration is also highlighted. The results presented here indicate that the spanning of recirculation increases the degree of interfacial distortion with a larger interfacial area between fluids which results in substantial enhancement in fluid mixing. The simulation results suggest that the qualitative and quantitative properties of fluid dynamics in a baffled reactor can be obtained which provides valuable insight to fully understand the effect of baffles and its arrangements on the flow pattern, behaviour, and feature.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

Check-in processing : simulation of passengers with advanced traits

In order to tackle the growth of air travelers in airports worldwide, it is important to simulate and understand passenger flows to predict future capacity constraints and levels of service. We discuss the ability of agent-based models to understand complicated pedestrian movement in built environments. In this paper we propose advanced passenger traits to enable more detailed modelling of behaviors in terminal buildings, particularly in the departure hall around the check-in facilities. To demonstrate the concepts, we perform a series of passenger agent simulations in a virtual airport terminal. In doing so, we generate a spatial distribution of passengers within the departure hall to ancillary facilities such as cafes, information kiosks and phone booths as well as common check-in facilities, and observe the effects this has on passenger check-in and departure hall dwell times, and facility utilization.

Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

Simulation of inplane and out of plane AE source in thin plate

In most materials, short stress waves are generated during the process of plastic deformation, phase transformation, crack formation and crack growth. These phenomena are applied in acoustic emission (AE) for the detection of material defects in a wide spectrum of areas, ranging from nondestructive testing for the detection of materials defects to monitoring of microseismical activity. AE technique is also used for defect source identification and for failure detection. AE waves consist of P waves (primary longitudinal waves), S waves (shear/transverse waves) and Rayleigh (surface) waves as well as reflected and diffracted waves. The propagation of AE waves in various modes has made the determination of source location difficult. In order to use acoustic emission technique for accurate identification of source, an understanding of wave propagation of the AE signals at various locations in a plate structure is essential. Furthermore, an understanding of wave propagation can also assist in sensor location for optimum detection of AE signals along with the characteristics of the source. In real life, as the AE signals radiate from the source it will result in stress waves. Unless the type of stress wave is known, it is very difficult to locate the source when using the classical propagation velocity equations. This paper describes the simulation of AE waves to identify the source location and its characteristics in steel plate as well as the wave modes. The finite element analysis (FEA) is used for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in thin plate. By knowing the type of wave generated, it is possible to apply the appropriate wave equations to determine the location of the source. For a single plate structure, the results show that the simulation algorithm is effective to simulate different stress waves.

Testing and simulation of extruded polystyrene foam at low to moderate strain rates

This paper presents a study into the behaviour of extruded polystyrene foam at low strain rates. The foam is being studied in order assess its potential for use as part of a new innovative design of portable road safety barrier the aim to consume less water and reduce rates of serious injury. The foam was tested at a range of low strain rates, with the stress and strain behaviour of the foam specimens being recorded. The energy absorption capabilities of the foam were assessed as well as the response of the foam to multiple loadings. The experimental data was then used to create a material model of the foam for use in the explicit finite element solver LS-DYNA. Simulations were carried out using the material model which showed excellent correlation between the numerical material model and the experimental data.

Including airport duty-free shopping in arriving passenger simulation and the opportunities this presents

Simulating passenger flows within airports is very important as it can provide an indication of queue lengths, bottlenecks, system capacity and overall level of service. To date, visual simulation tools such as agent based models have focused on processing formalities such as check-in, and not incorporate discretionary activities such as duty-free shopping. As airport retail contributes greatly to airport revenue generation, but also has potentially detrimental effects on facilitation efficiency benchmarks, this study developed a simplistic simulation model which captures common duty-free purchasing opportunities, as well as high-level behaviours of passengers. It is argued that such a model enables more realistic simulation of passenger facilitation, and provides a platform for simulating real-time revenue generation as well as more complex passenger behaviours within the airport. Simulations are conducted to verify the suitability of the model for inclusion in the international arrivals process for assessing passenger flow and infrastructure utilization.

Numerical simulation for the variable-order Galilei invariant advection diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term

In this paper, we consider the variable-order Galilei advection diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term. A numerical scheme with first order temporal accuracy and second order spatial accuracy is developed to simulate the equation. The stability and convergence of the numerical scheme are analyzed. Besides, another numerical scheme for improving temporal accuracy is also developed. Finally, some numerical examples are given and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis. Keywords: The variable-order Galilei invariant advection diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term; The variable-order Riemann–Liouville fractional partial derivative; Stability; Convergence; Numerical scheme improving temporal accuracy