Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Assessing wet crashes for the skid resistance management of road assets

Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$15 billion annually whilst the US estimates an economic impact of around US$ 230 billion on its network. Worldwide economic cost of road crashes is estimated to be around US$ 518 billion each year. Road accidents occur due to a number of factors including driver behaviour, geometric alignment, vehicle characteristics, environmental impacts, and the type and condition of the road surfacing. Skid resistance is considered one of the most important road surface characteristics because it has a direct effect on traffic safety. In 2005, Austroads (the Association of Australian and New Zealand Road Transport and Traffic Authorities) published a guideline for the management of skid resistance and Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) developed a skid resistance management plan (SRMP). The current QDMR strategy is based on rationale analytical methodology supported by field inspection with related asset management decision tools. The Austroads’s guideline and QDMR's skid resistance management plan have prompted QDMR to review its skid resistance management practice. As a result, a joint research project involving QDMR, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Corporative Research Centre for Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CRC CIEAM) was formed. The research project aims at investigating whether there is significant relationship between road crashes and skid resistance on Queensland’s road networks. If there is, the current skid resistance management practice of QDMR will be reviewed and appropriate skid resistance investigatory levels will be recommended. This paper presents analysis results in assessing the relationship between wet crashes and skid resistance on Queensland roads. Attributes considered in the analysis include surface types, annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed and seal age.

Improving road safety through deterrence-based initiatives : a review of research

The efficacy of road safety countermeasures to deter motorists from engaging in illegal behaviours is extremely important when considering the personal and economic impact of road accidents on the community. Within many countries, deterrence theory has remained a cornerstone to criminology and criminal justice policy, particularly within the field of road safety, as policy makers and enforcement agencies attempt to increase perceptions regarding the certainty, severity and swiftness of sanctions for those who engage in illegal motoring behaviours. Using the Australian experience (particularly the tremendous amount of research into drink driving), the current paper reviews the principles underpinning deterrence theory, the utilisation of the approach within some contemporary road safety initiatives (e.g., Random Breath Testing) as well as highlights some methods to enhance a deterrent effect. The paper also provides direction for future deterrence-based research, in particular, considering the powerful impact of non-legal sanctions, punishment avoidance as well as creating culturally embedded behavioural change.

The crash involvement of older drivers is associated with their hazard perception latencies

Hazard perception in driving is the one of the few driving-specific skills associated with crash involvement. However, this relationship has only been examined in studies where the majority of individuals were younger than 65. We present the first data revealing an association between hazard perception and self-reported crash involvement in drivers aged 65 and over. In a sample of 271 drivers, we found that individuals whose mean response time to traffic hazards was slower than 6.68 seconds (the ROC-curve derived pass mark for the test) were 2.32 times (95% CI 1.46, 3.22) more likely to have been involved in a self-reported crash within the previous five years than those with faster response times. This likelihood ratio became 2.37 (95% CI 1.49, 3.28) when driving exposure was controlled for. As a comparison, individuals who failed a test of useful field of view were 2.70 (95% CI 1.44, 4.44) times more likely to crash than those who passed. The hazard perception test and the useful field of view measure accounted for separate variance in crash involvement. These findings indicate that hazard perception testing and training could be potentially useful for road safety interventions for this age group.

Who makes the news : Australia : global media monitoring project 2010 national report

The Australian report for the Global Media Monitoring Project 2010 (GMMP 2010) involved a study of 374 stories that were sampled from 26 Australian newspapers, radio and television stations, and internet news services on 10 November 2009. This snapshot of reporting on that day suggests that women are under-represented in the Australian news media as both the sources and creators of news. Females made up only 24% of the 1012 news sources who were heard, read about or seen in the stories that were studied. Neglect of female sources was particularly noticeable in sports news. Women made up only 1% of the 142 sources who were talked about or quoted in sports stories. Female sources of news were disproportionately portrayed as celebrities and victims. Although women made up only 24% of sources overall, they comprised 44% of victims of crimes, accidents, war, health problems, or discrimination. Unsurprisingly, women made up 32% of sources in stories about violent crimes and 29% in stories about disasters, accidents or emergencies – usually in the role of victim. Females were commonly defined in terms of their status as a mother, daughter, wife, sister or other family relationship. Family status was mentioned for 33% of women quoted or discussed in the news stories compared to only 13% of male sources. Women also made up 75% of sources described as homemakers or parents. The Australian GMMP 2010 study also indicates a gender division among the journalists who wrote or presented the news. Only 32% of the stories were written or presented by female reporters and newsreaders. The gender inequality was again most evident in sports journalism. Findings from the Australian report also contributed to the GMMP 2010 Global Report and the Pacific GMMP 2010 Regional Report, which are available at http://whomakesthenews.org/gmmp/gmmp-reports/gmmp-2010-reports

Raman spectroscopic study of the mineral thorikosite Pb3(OH)(SbO3,AsO3)Cl2 : a mineral of archaeological significance

The mineral thorikosite Pb3(OH)(SbO3,AsO3)Cl2 is named after the ancient city of Thorikos, in the region of Attica, where the ancient mine sites dating back to the bronze ages are found. Raman spectra of the antimonate bearing mineral thorikosite Pb3(OH)(SbO3,AsO3)Cl2 were studied, and related to the structure of the mineral. Two intense Raman peaks are observed at 596 and 730 cm-1 and are assigned to the Sb3+O3 and As3+O3 stretching vibrations. A peak at 1085 cm-1 is assigned to the Sb3+OH deformation mode. Raman band at 325 cm-1 is assigned to an OAsO bending vibration of the As3+O3 units and the bands at 269 and 275 cm-1 are attributed to the OSbO bending modes of the Sb3+O3 units. The intense Raman bands at 112 and 133 cm-1 are associated with PbCl stretching modes. Minerals such as nealite and thorikosite are minerals of archaeological significance. Yet no spectroscopic studies of these minerals have been undertaken.

The mineral nealite Pb4Fe2+(AsO3)2Cl4•2H2O : a Raman spectroscopic study

The mineral nealite Pb4Fe2+(AsO3)2Cl4•2H2O is of archaeological significance as it is man made mineral formed through the dumping of mine wastes in the sea. The mineral has been studied by Raman spectroscopy. Raman spectroscopy identifies intense Raman bands at 708 and 732 cm-1 assigned to AsO33- stretching vibrations. In addition low intensity bands are observed at 604 and 632 cm-1 which are attributed to As2O42- symmetric and antisymmetric stretching modes. Low intensity Raman band is observed at 831 cm-1 and is assigned to the AsO44- stretching vibration. Intense Raman bands at 149 and 183 cm-1 are attributed to M-Cl stretching vibrations. Raman spectroscopy identifies arsenic anions in different oxidation states in the mineral. The molecular structure of the mineral nealite, as indicated by Raman spectroscopy, is more complex than has been reported by previous studies.

Suppressed democracy in China : theoretical rationalisation using a cosmopolitan methodology

The intention of this work is to explain theoretically that democracy logically exists in China, despite the statements to the contrary by China’s ruling party. We will have to look at several recent developments in social and political theory to fully understand my point. The first involves recent findings in the historical analysis of democracy from thinkers like Keane (2009), Isakhan and Stockwell (2011). The second deals with cosmopolitan theory and 2nd modernity, or from the works of David Held (2003), Ulrich Beck and Edgar Grande (2010) respectively. Finally, the third is a recent work of mine titled “Democratic Theory and Theoretical Physics” (2010).

Young drivers’ optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill : accountability and insight experience manipulations

This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers’ optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skilful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17 - 25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants’ comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers’ skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one’s accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for less experienced young drivers but the results suggest exercising caution with the use of insight type interventions, particularly hazard perception style tasks, for more experienced young drivers typically still in the provisional stage of graduated licensing systems.

Optimal fluid injection strategies for in situ mineral leaching in two-dimensions

This paper examines the ground-water flow problem associated with the injection and recovery of certain corrosive fluids into mineral bearing rock. The aim is to dissolve the minerals in situ, and then recover them in solution. In general, it is not possible to recover all the injected fluid, which is of concern economically and environmentally. However, a new strategy is proposed here, that allows all the leaching fluid to be recovered. A mathematical model of the situation is solved approximately using an asymptotic solution, and exactly using a boundary integral approach. Solutions are shown for two-dimensional flow, which is of some practical interest as it is achievable in old mine tunnels, for example.

Construction safety in the repair and maintenance sector

Statistics indicate that the percentage of fatal industrial accidents arising from repair, maintenance, minor alteration and addition (RMAA) works in Hong Kong was disturbingly high and was over 56% in 2006. This paper provides an initial report of a research project funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the HKSAR to address this safety issue. The aim of this study is to scrutinize the causal relationship between safety climate and safety performance in the RMAA sector. It aims to evaluate the safety climate in the RMAA sector; examine its impacts on safety performance, and recommend measures to improve safety performance in the RMAA sector. This paper firstly reports on the statistics of construction accidents arising from RMAA works. Qualitative and quantitative research methods applied in conducting the research are dis-cussed. The study will critically review these related problems and provide recommendations for improving safety performance in the RMAA sector.

Automatic in-bucket volume estimation for dragline operations

This paper presents a method for calculating the in-bucket payload volume on a dragline for the purpose of estimating the material’s bulk density in real-time. Knowledge of the bulk density can provide instant feedback to mine planning and scheduling to improve blasting and in turn provide a more uniform bulk density across the excavation site. Furthermore costs and emissions in dragline operation, maintenance and downstream material processing can be reduced. The main challenge is to determine an accurate position and orientation of the bucket with the constraint of real-time performance. The proposed solution uses a range bearing and tilt sensor to locate and scan the bucket between the lift and dump stages of the dragline cycle. Various scanning strategies are investigated for their benefits in this real-time application. The bucket is segmented from the scene using cluster analysis while the pose of the bucket is calculated using the iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm. Payload points are segmented from the bucket by a fixed distance neighbour clustering method to preserve boundary points and exclude low density clusters introduced by overhead chains and the spreader bar. A height grid is then used to represent the payload from which the volume can be calculated by summing over the grid cells. We show volume calculated on a scaled system with an accuracy of greater than 95 per cent.

Discovering characteristics of stochastic collections of process models

Process models in organizational collections are typically modeled by the same team and using the same conventions. As such, these models share many characteristic features like size range, type and frequency of errors. In most cases merely small samples of these collections are available due to e.g. the sensitive information they contain. Because of their sizes, these samples may not provide an accurate representation of the characteristics of the originating collection. This paper deals with the problem of constructing collections of process models, in the form of Petri nets, from small samples of a collection for accurate estimations of the characteristics of this collection. Given a small sample of process models drawn from a real-life collection, we mine a set of generation parameters that we use to generate arbitrary-large collections that feature the same characteristics of the original collection. In this way we can estimate the characteristics of the original collection on the generated collections.We extensively evaluate the quality of our technique on various sample datasets drawn from both research and industry.

Mental harm, rescuers and the Civil Liability Act 2002 (NSW)

At common law, a duty of care may be owed to a claimant who suffers nervous shock or pure mental harm due to witnessing, or hearing about, physical injury caused to another due to a defendant’s negligence. “Pure mental harm” is the ‘impairment of a person’s mental condition’ that is not suffered as a consequence of any other kind of personal injury to them. However, as many accidents have the potential to create a wide circle of mental suffering to bystanders, family members or others not physically injured themselves, it has traditionally been ‘thought impolitic that everybody so affected should be able to recover damages from the tortfeasor.’ ‘To allow such extended recovery would stretch liability too far.’ Nevertheless, whilst adopting a restrictive approach to liability, the common law courts have recognised that a defendant might owe a duty in relation to the pure mental harm suffered by one who foreseeably attends an accident scene to rescue another from a situation created by the defendant’s negligence.