Local power and size properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests in dispersion models

We derive asymptotic expansions for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the precision parameter. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular determinants of caste differentiation in the highly eusocial honeybee Apis mellifera

Abstract Background In honeybees, differential feeding of female larvae promotes the occurrence of two different phenotypes, a queen and a worker, from identical genotypes, through incremental alterations, which affect general growth, and character state alterations that result in the presence or absence of specific structures. Although previous studies revealed a link between incremental alterations and differential expression of physiometabolic genes, the molecular changes accompanying character state alterations remain unknown. Results By using cDNA microarray analyses of >6,000 Apis mellifera ESTs, we found 240 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between developing queens and workers. Many genes recorded as up-regulated in prospective workers appear to be unique to A. mellifera, suggesting that the workers' developmental pathway involves the participation of novel genes. Workers up-regulate more developmental genes than queens, whereas queens up-regulate a greater proportion of physiometabolic genes, including genes coding for metabolic enzymes and genes whose products are known to regulate the rate of mass-transforming processes and the general growth of the organism (e.g., tor). Many DEGs are likely to be involved in processes favoring the development of caste-biased structures, like brain, legs and ovaries, as well as genes that code for cytoskeleton constituents. Treatment of developing worker larvae with juvenile hormone (JH) revealed 52 JH responsive genes, specifically during the critical period of caste development. Using Gibbs sampling and Expectation Maximization algorithms, we discovered eight overrepresented cis-elements from four gene groups. Graph theory and complex networks concepts were adopted to attain powerful graphical representations of the interrelation between cis-elements and genes and objectively quantify the degree of relationship between these entities. Conclusion We suggest that clusters of functionally related DEGs are co-regulated during caste development in honeybees. This network of interactions is activated by nutrition-driven stimuli in early larval stages. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that JH is a key component of the developmental determination of queen-like characters. Finally, we propose a conceptual model of caste differentiation in A. mellifera based on gene-regulatory networks.

Assessing malaria transmission in a low endemicity area of north-western Peru

Background Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools. Methods Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP119) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR). Results The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP119 was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006). Conclusion Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.

Phylogeography of the neotropical Anopheles triannulatus complex (Diptera: Culicidae) supports deep structure and complex patterns

Abstract Background The molecular phylogenetic relationships and population structure of the species of the Anopheles triannulatus complex: Anopheles triannulatus s.s., Anopheles halophylus and the putative species Anopheles triannulatus C were investigated. Methods The mitochondrial COI gene, the nuclear white gene and rDNA ITS2 of samples that include the known geographic distribution of these taxa were analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using Bayesian inference, Maximum parsimony and Maximum likelihood approaches. Results Each data set analyzed septely yielded a different topology but none provided evidence for the seption of An. halophylus and An. triannulatus C, consistent with the hypothesis that the two are undergoing incipient speciation. The phylogenetic analyses of the white gene found three main clades, whereas the statistical parsimony network detected only a single metapopulation of Anopheles triannulatus s.l. Seven COI lineages were detected by phylogenetic and network analysis. In contrast, the network, but not the phylogenetic analyses, strongly supported three ITS2 groups. Combined data analyses provided the best resolution of the trees, with two major clades, Amazonian (clade I) and trans-Andean + Amazon Delta (clade II). Clade I consists of multiple subclades: An. halophylus + An. triannulatus C; trans-Andean Venezuela; central Amazonia + central Bolivia; Atlantic coastal lowland; and Amazon delta. Clade II includes three subclades: Panama; cis-Andean Colombia; and cis-Venezuela. The Amazon delta specimens are in both clades, likely indicating local sympatry. Spatial and molecular variance analyses detected nine groups, corroborating some of subclades obtained in the combined data analysis. Conclusion Combination of the three molecular markers provided the best resolution for differentiation within An. triannulatus s.s. and An. halophylus and C. The latest two species seem to be very closely related and the analyses performed were not conclusive regarding species differentiation. Further studies including new molecular markers would be desirable to solve this species status question. Besides, results of the study indicate a trans-Andean origin for An. triannulatus s.l. The potential implications for malaria epidemiology remain to be investigated.

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Molecular markers for the assessment of genetic variability in threatened plant species

La variabilità genetica è un importante strumento per lo studio e la conservazione della biodiversità in specie rare e minacciate di estinzione. Durante il mio dottorato mi sono quindi occupata di mettere a punto diverse metodologie molecolari al fine di valutare la diversità genetica in due specie rare della flora italiana che presentano problematiche diverse e specifiche. I marcatori arbitrari RAPD e i marcatori semi-arbitrari ISSR sono stati utilizzati per valutare la diversità genetica in Quercus crenata Lam. e per confermare l’ipotesi della sua origine ibridogena dalle due specie presunte parentali Quercus cerris L. e Quercus suber L., essendo Q. crenata presente in Italia settentrionale dove Q. suber è attualmente assente. I marcatori SSR o microsatelliti sono invece stati messi a punto su una specie a rischio di estinzione, endemica dell’Appennino Tosco-Emiliano, Primula apennina Widmer, applicando una metodologia specifica, basata sulla costruzione di una libreria genomica arricchita per l’isolamento di primer specifici. I marcatori RAPD e ISSR, utilizzati su un totale di 85 campioni, hanno mostrato alti livelli di diversità molecolare entro le specie studiate, eccetto per Q. suber le cui popolazioni rappresentano il margine orientale di distribuzione della specie, per questo più sottoposte ad impoverimento genetico. Oltre alla cluster analysis (UPGMA) e alla Analisi delle Componenti Principali effettuate per entrambi i marcatori, che confermano l’ipotesi dell’origine ibrida degli individui di Q. crenata diffusi in Italia Settentrionale, sono stati calcolati l’indice di ibridità basato sul maximum likelihood, che dimostra una introgressione asimmetrica di Q. crenata verso il parentale caratterizzato da superiorità demografica (Q. cerris) e il test di Mantel. Quest’ultimo ha permesso di confrontare i due marcatori RAPD e ISSR utilizzati ottenendo una bassa correlazione, a conferma del fatto che, amplificando tratti differenti del DNA nucleare, i dati non sono sovrapponibili, sebbene forniscano risultati analoghi. Per l’isolamento di loci microsatelliti ipervariabili ho utilizzato il protocolllo FIASCO (Fast isolation by AFLP of sequences containing repeats- Zane et al. 2002) che permette di costruire una libreria genomica arricchita partendo dal DNA estratto da P. apennina. Tale procedura ha previsto la digestione del DNA genomico per la produzione di una miscela di frammenti di DNA. Tramite ibridazione con opportune sonde sono stati isolati i frammenti contenenti i microsatelliti. Sequenziando i cloni ricombinanti, ho ottenuto sequenze contenenti repeats sulle cui regioni fiancheggianti sono stati costruiti 15 coppie di primer che potranno, in seguito, essere utilizzate per definire la quota di riproduzione clonale in P. apennina e per valutare la diversità genetica delle popolazioni che coprono l’areale di distribuzione della specie. Data la loro natura altamente variabile e la loro abbondanza nel DNA, gli SSR saranno, come i marcatori RAPD e gli ISSR, ugualmente validi per lo studio della variabilità genetica e per l’analisi di problematiche specifiche legate alle specie rare.

Metodi molecolari nello studio della variabilità genetica di Tuber borchii

Tuber borchii (Ascomycota, order Pezizales) is highly valued truffle sold in local markets in Italy. Despite its economic importance, knowledge on its distribution and population variation is scarce. The objective of this work was to investigate the evolutionary forces shaping the genetic structure of this fungus using coalescent and phylogenetic methods to reconstruct the evolutionary history of populations in Italy. To assess population structure, 61 specimens were collected from 11 different Provinces of Italy. Sampling was stratified across hosts and habitats to maximize coverage in native oak and pine stands and both mychorrizae and fruiting bodies were collected. Samples were identified considering anatomo-morphological characters. DNA was extracted and both multilocus (AFLP) and single-locus (18 loci from rDNA, nDNA, and mtDNA) approaches were used to look for polymorphisms. Screening AFLP profiles, both Jaccard and Dice coefficients of similarity were utilized to transform binary matrix into a distance matrix and then to desume Neighbour-Joining trees. Though these are only preliminary examinations, phylogenetic trees were totally concordant with those deriving from single locus analyses. Phylogenetic analyses of the nuclear loci were performed using maximum likelihood with PAUP and a combined phylogenetic inference, using Bayesian estimation with all nuclear gene regions, was carried out. To reconstruct the evolutionary history, we estimated recurrent migration, migration across the history of the sample, and estimated the mutation and approximate age of mutations in each tree using SNAP Workbench. The combined phylogenetic tree using Bayesian estimation suggests that there are two main haplotypes that are difficult to be differentiated on the basis of morphology, of ecological parameters and symbiontic tree. Between these two lineages, that occur in sympatry within T. borchii populations, there is no evidence of recurrent migration. However, migration over the history of the sample was asymmetrical suggesting that isolation was a result of interrupted gene flow followed by range expansion. Low levels of divergence between the haplotypes indicate that there are likely to be two cryptic species within the T. borchii population sampled. Our results suggest that isolation between populations of T. borchii could have led to reproductive isolation between two lineages. This isolation is likely due to sympatric speciation caused by a multiple colonization from different refugia or a recent isolation. In attempting to determinate whether these haplotypes represent separate species or a partition of the same species we applied Biological and Mechanistic species Concepts. Notwithstanding, further analyses are necessary to evaluate if selection favoured premating or post-mating isolation.

Essays in Applied Health Economics: Evidence on Health and Health Care in Italy and UK

This thesis is the result of my experience as a PhD student taking part in the Joint Doctoral Programme at the University of York and the University of Bologna. In my thesis I deal with topics that are of particular interest in Italy and in Great Britain. Chapter 2 focuses on the empirical test of the existence of the relationship between technological profiles and market structure claimed by Sutton’s theory (1991, 1998) in the specific economic framework of hospital care services provided by the Italian National Health Service (NHS). In order to test the empirical predictions by Sutton, we identify the relevant markets for hospital care services in Italy in terms of both product and geographic dimensions. In particular, the Elzinga and Hogarty (1978) approach has been applied to data on patients’ flows across Italian Provinces in order to derive the geographic dimension of each market. Our results provide evidence in favour of the empirical predictions of Sutton. Chapter 3 deals with the patient mobility in the Italian NHS. To analyse the determinants of patient mobility across Local Health Authorities, we estimate gravity equations in multiplicative form using a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, as proposed by Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006). In particular, we focus on the scale effect played by the size of the pool of enrolees. In most of the cases our results are consistent with the predictions of the gravity model. Chapter 4 considers the effects of contractual and working conditions on selfassessed health and psychological well-being (derived from the General Health Questionnaire) using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We consider two branches of the literature. One suggests that “atypical” contractual conditions have a significant impact on health while the other suggests that health is damaged by adverse working conditions. The main objective of our paper is to combine the two branches of the literature to assess the distinct effects of contractual and working conditions on health. The results suggest that both sets of conditions have some influence on health and psychological well-being of employees.

Informationsgehalt von ERS-1/-2 SAR-Daten zur Erfassung der Arteninventare und des Zustandes landwirtschaftlich genutzter Böden und Vegetation

Auf einer drei Anbauperioden umfassenden Ground Truth Datenbasis wird der Informationsgehalt multitemporaler ERS-1/-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Daten zur Erfassung der Arteninventare und des Zustandes landwirtschaftlich genutzter Böden und Vegetation in Agrarregionen Bayerns evaluiert.Dazu wird ein für Radardaten angepaßtes, multitemporales, auf landwirtschaftlichen Schlägen beruhendes Klassifizierungsverfahren ausgearbeitet, das auf bildstatistischen Parametern der ERS-Zeitreihen beruht. Als überwachte Klassifizierungsverfahren wird vergleichend der Maximum-Likelihood-Klassifikator und ein Neuronales-Backpropagation-Netz eingesetzt. Die auf Radarbildkanälen beruhenden Gesamtgenauigkeiten variieren zwischen 75 und 85%. Darüber hinaus wird gezeigt, daß die interferometrische Kohärenz und die Kombination mit Bildkanälen optischer Sensoren (Landsat-TM, SPOT-PAN und IRS-1C-PAN) zur Verbesserung der Klassifizierung beitragen. Gleichermaßen können die Klassifizierungsergebnisse durch eine vorgeschaltete Grobsegmentierung des Untersuchungsgebietes in naturräumlich homogene Raumeinheiten verbessert werden. Über die Landnutzungsklassifizierung hinaus, werden weitere bio- und bodenphysikalische Parameter aus den SAR-Daten anhand von Regressionsmodellen abgeleitet. Im Mittelpunkt stehen die Paramter oberflächennahen Bodenfeuchte vegetationsfreier/-armer Flächen sowie die Biomasse landwirtschaftlicher Kulturen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß mit ERS-1/-2 SAR-Daten eine Messung der Bodenfeuchte möglich ist, wenn Informationen zur Bodenrauhigkeit vorliegen. Hinsichtlich der biophysikalischen Parameter sind signifikante Zusammenhänge zwischen der Frisch- bzw. Trockenmasse des Vegetationsbestandes verschiedener Getreide und dem Radarsignal nachweisbar. Die Biomasse-Informationen können zur Korrektur von Wachstumsmodellen genutzt werden und dazu beitragen, die Genauigkeit von Ertragsschätzungen zu steigern.

Die Entwicklung eines neuen Verfahrens zur Suche nach kosmischen Neutrino-Punktquellen mit dem AMANDA-Neutrinoteleskop

Die Suche nach kosmischen Neutrinopunktquellen ist durch dieFrage motiviert, wo die hochenergetische Kosmische Strahlungim Universum entsteht. Wenn dort Hadronen beschleunigtwerden, sollten Mesonen produziert werden und daraushochenergetische Neutrinos entstehen. Diese können nahezuungestört die Erde erreichen. Die Identifikation einerNeutrinopunktquelle ist eines der zentralen Ziele desAMANDA-Neutrinoteleskopes am geographischen Südpol. In dieser Dissertation wird zunächst gezeigt, wie dieWinkelauflösung für jedes einzelne Neutrinoereignisindividuell bestimmt werden kann. Zudem stellt sich derWinkelfehlerschätzer als guter Qualitätsparameter zurUnterdrückung von Untergrundereignissen heraus. Die bisher zur Punktquellensuche verwendete Suchmethode kanndiese zusätzliche Information nicht verwenden, da es sich umein reines Zählverfahren handelt. Dadurch motiviert wird einneues Verfahren entwickelt, das auf der Methode der MaximumLikelihood basiert. Darin wird die Winkelauflösung für jedesEreignis in natürlicher Art und Weise integriert. Die erreichte Sensitivität der Maximum-Likelihood-Methodevon bar{Phi}_nu^90 approx 2cdot 10^-8 cm^-2 s^-1 istvergleichbar mit derjenigen der bisherigen Vorgehensweise.Die Ortsauflösung, mit der die Position eineridentifizierten Quelle bestimmt wird, ist um den Faktor ca.4 verbessert, und liegt bei etwa einem Grad. Ebenfalls neu ist der Wegfall von künstlichen Suchgittern,mit denen der Himmel bei der Suche nach Quellen unbekannterLage bisher eingeteilt worden ist. Stattdessen werdenkontinuierliche Funktionen der Himmelskoordinaten studiert. Die im Jahr 2000 aufgezeichneten Daten wurden einer Suchenach Neutrinopunktquellen unterzogen. Wie schon bei einervorherigen Suche mit der alten Vorgehensweis konnte keineQuelle identifiziert werden. Für die 30 untersuchtenKandidatenobjekte ergeben sich obere Grenzen in der Nähe derSensitivität. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist problemlos auf jedesExperiment übertragbar, das ein Entdeckungspotenzial fürPunktquellen hat.

Analysis and modeling techniques for ultrasonic tissue characterization

This thesis introduces new processing techniques for computer-aided interpretation of ultrasound images with the purpose of supporting medical diagnostic. In terms of practical application, the goal of this work is the improvement of current prostate biopsy protocols by providing physicians with a visual map overlaid over ultrasound images marking regions potentially affected by disease. As far as analysis techniques are concerned, the main contributions of this work to the state-of-the-art is the introduction of deconvolution as a pre-processing step in the standard ultrasonic tissue characterization procedure to improve the diagnostic significance of ultrasonic features. This thesis also includes some innovations in ultrasound modeling, in particular the employment of a continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) model for ultrasound signals, a new maximum-likelihood CARMA estimator based on exponential splines and the definition of CARMA parameters as new ultrasonic features able to capture scatterers concentration. Finally, concerning the clinical usefulness of the developed techniques, the main contribution of this research is showing, through a study based on medical ground truth, that a reduction in the number of sampled cores in standard prostate biopsy is possible, preserving the same diagnostic power of the current clinical protocol.