The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

Spatial analysis of the error in a model of soil nitrogen

Models of the dynamics of nitrogen in soil (soil-N) can be used to aid the fertilizer management of a crop. The predictions of soil-N models can be validated by comparison with observed data. Validation generally involves calculating non-spatial statistics of the observations and predictions, such as their means, their mean squared-difference, and their correlation. However, when the model predictions are spatially distributed across a landscape the model requires validation with spatial statistics. There are three reasons for this: (i) the model may be more or less successful at reproducing the variance of the observations at different spatial scales; (ii) the correlation of the predictions with the observations may be different at different spatial scales; (iii) the spatial pattern of model error may be informative. In this study we used a model, parameterized with spatially variable input information about the soil, to predict the mineral-N content of soil in an arable field, and compared the results with observed data. We validated the performance of the N model spatially with a linear mixed model of the observations and model predictions, estimated by residual maximum likelihood. This novel approach allowed us to describe the joint variation of the observations and predictions as: (i) independent random variation that occurred at a fine spatial scale; (ii) correlated random variation that occurred at a coarse spatial scale; (iii) systematic variation associated with a spatial trend. The linear mixed model revealed that, in general, the performance of the N model changed depending on the spatial scale of interest. At the scales associated with random variation, the N model underestimated the variance of the observations, and the predictions were correlated poorly with the observations. At the scale of the trend, the predictions and observations shared a common surface. The spatial pattern of the error of the N model suggested that the observations were affected by the local soil condition, but this was not accounted for by the N model. In summary, the N model would be well-suited to field-scale management of soil nitrogen, but suited poorly to management at finer spatial scales. This information was not apparent with a non-spatial validation. (c),2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Orography in a contour dynamics model of large-scale atmospheric flow

The influence of orography on the structure of stationary planetary Rossby waves is studied in the context of a contour dynamics model of the large-scale atmospheric flow. Orography of infinitesimal and finite amplitude is studied using analytical and numerical techniques. Three different types of orography are considered: idealized orography in the form of a global wave, idealized orography in the form of a local table mountain, and the earth's orography. The study confirms the importance of resonances, both in the infinitesimal orography and in the finite orography cases. With finite orography the stationary waves organize themselves into a one-dimensional set of solutions, which due to the resonances, is piecewise connected. It is pointed out that these stationary waves could be relevant for atmospheric regimes.

Later Pleistocene evolution of the Exe valley: a chronostratigraphic model of terrace formation and its implications for Palaeolithic archaeology

This paper presents the first systematic chronostratigraphic study of the river terraces of the Exe catchment in South West England and a new conceptual model for terrace formation in unglaciated basins with applicability to terrace staircase sequences elsewhere. The Exe catchment lay beyond the maximum extent of Pleistocene ice sheets and the drainage pattern evolved from the Tertiary to the Middle Pleistocene, by which time the major valley systems were in place and downcutting began to create a staircase of strath terraces. The higher terraces (8-6) typically exhibit altitudinal overlap or appear to be draped over the landscape, whilst the middle terraces show greater altitudinal separation and the lowest terraces are of a cut and fill form. The terrace deposits investigated in this study were deposited in cold phases of the glacial-interglacial Milankovitch climatic cycles with the lowest four being deposited in the Devensian Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4-2. A new cascade process-response model is proposed of basin terrace evolution in the Exe valley, which emphasises the role of lateral erosion in the creation of strath terraces and the reworking of inherited resistant lithological components down through the staircase. The resultant emergent valley topography and the reworking of artefacts along with gravel clasts, have important implications for the dating of hominin presence and the local landscapes they inhabited. Whilst the terrace chronology suggested here is still not as detailed as that for the Thames or the Solent System it does indicate a Middle Palaeolithic hominin presence in the region, probably prior to the late Wolstonian Complex or MIS 6. This supports existing data from cave sites in South West England.

Modelling effects of prolonged conditioning on dormancy and germination of Striga hermonthica

The impact of environment on the germination biology of the parasite was studied in the laboratory with seeds conditioned at various water potentials, urea concentrations and at 17.5 to 37.5°C for up to 133 days. Maximum germination was observed at 20 to 25°C. Water stress and urea suppressed maximum germination. The final percentage germination response to period of conditioning showed a non-linear relationship and suggests the release of seeds from dormancy during the initial period and later on dormancy induction. Germination percentage increased with increase in conditioning period to a threshold and remained stable for variable periods followed by a decline with further extension of conditioning time. The decline in germination finally terminated in zero germination in most treatments before the end of experimentation. The investigated factors of temperature, water potential and urea showed clear effects on the expression of dormancy pattern of the parasite. The effects of water potential and urea were viewed as modifying a primary response of seeds to temperature during conditioning. The changes in germinability potential during conditioning were consistent with the hypothesis that dormancy periods are normally distributed within seed populations and that loss of primary dormancy precedes induction of secondary dormancy. Hence an additive mathematical model of loss of primary dormancy and induction of secondary as affected by environment was developed as: G = {[Φ-1 (Kp+ (po+pnN+pwW) (T-Tb) t)]-[Φ-1 (Ks+ ((swW+sa)+sorT)t)]}[Φ-1(aT2+bT+c+cwW)].

A model of net amino acid absorption and utilization by the portal-drained viscera of the lactating dairy cow

A more complete understanding of amino acid ( AA) metabolism by the various tissues of the body is required to improve upon current systems for predicting the use of absorbed AA. The objective of this work was to construct and parameterize a model of net removal of AA by the portal-drained viscera (PDV). Six cows were prepared with arterial, portal, and hepatic catheters and infused abomasally with 0, 200, 400, or 600 g of casein daily. Casein infusion increased milk yield quadratically and tended to increase milk protein yield quadratically. Arterial concentrations of a number of essential AA increased linearly with respect to infusion amount. When infused casein was assumed to have a true digestion coefficient of 0.95, the minimum likely true digestion coefficient for noninfused duodenal protein was found to be 0.80. Net PDV use of AA appeared to be linearly related to total supply (arterial plus absorption), and extraction percentages ranged from 0.5 to 7.25% for essential AA. Prediction errors for portal vein AA concentrations ranged from 4 to 9% of the observed mean concentrations. Removal of AA by PDV represented approximately 33% of total postabsorptive catabolic use, including use during absorption but excluding use for milk protein synthesis, and was apparently adequate to support endogenous N losses in feces of 18.4 g/d. As 69% of this use was from arterial blood, increased PDV catabolism of AA in part represents increased absorption of AA in excess of amounts required by other body tissues. Based on the present model, increased anabolic use of AA in the mammary and other tissues would reduce the catabolic use of AA by the PDV.

An integrative model of amino acid metabolism in the liver of the lactating dairy cow

The objective of this work was to construct a dynamic model of hepatic amino acid metabolism in the lactating dairy cow that could be parameterized using net flow data from in vivo experiments. The model considers 22 amino acids, ammonia, urea, and 13 energetic metabolites, and was parameterized using a steady-state balance model and two in vivo, net flow experiments conducted with mid-lactation dairy cows. Extracellular flows were derived directly from the observed data. An optimization routine was used to derive nine intracellular flows. The resulting dynamic model was found to be stable across a range of inputs suggesting that it can be perturbed and applied to other physiological states. Although nitrogen was generally in balance, leucine was in slight deficit compared to predicted needs for export protein synthesis, suggesting that an alternative source of leucine (e.g. peptides) was utilized. Simulations of varying glucagon concentrations indicated that an additional 5 mol/d of glucose could be synthesized at the reference substrate concentrations and blood flows. The increased glucose production was supported by increased removal from blood of lactate, glutamate, aspartate, alanine, asparagine, and glutamine. As glucose Output increased, ketone body and acetate release increased while CO2 release declined. The pattern of amino acids appearing in hepatic vein blood was affected by changes in amino acid concentration in portal vein blood, portal blood flow rate and glucagon concentration, with methionine and phenylalanine being the most affected of essential amino acids. Experimental evidence is insufficient to determine whether essential amino acids are affected by varying gluconeogenic demands. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.