Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preliminary findings of a systematic review and expert opinion workshop on Biosecurity on cattle farms in the UK

In this paper risk factors for the introduction of IBR, BVD, Salmonella and Johne's disease to cattle farms are reported. Two sources of information were used: literature was searched systematically and an expert opinion workshop was held. The findings from both indicate that direct contact between cattle is an important risk factor. Indirect and occasional contact is considered of less importance. Therefore, in the development of biosecurity programmes for cattle farms emphasis should be put on preventing direct contact with cattle from outside the herd.

Public opinion of a proposed wind farm situated close to a populated area in New Zealand: Results from a cross-sectional study

In accordance with New Zealand’s Resource Management Act 1991, in 2003, electricity generating company Genesis Energy made public its intention to apply for consent to build the Awhitu wind farm. Several community groups claiming to represent the majority opposed this application and in September 2004 consent was declined. The aim was to investigate the attitudes of local community members to the proposed wind farm. A survey was mailed to 500 Franklin residents, systematically selected from the local 2004/2005 telephone directory. Forty questionnaires were returned undelivered. Of the remaining 460, completed questionnaires were returned from 46% (211). Most, 70% (145), residents supported a wind farm being built in their area, with 17% (35) neutral, and only 13% (28) against the farm. There was no statistical difference in respondents’ attitudes between sex, age, or residential proximity to the farm. Respondents listed renewable resource (83%), suitability (78%), and environmental friendliness (76%) as main advantages. Visual unsightliness (24%) and noise pollution (21%) were listed as main perceived disadvantages. Contrary to the assertions of several lobby groups, the majority of local residents support the construction of the Awhitu wind farm. Scientifically robust methods are essential to measure appropriately community attitudes, particularly on contentious issues.

The Opinion Editorial: teaching physiology outside the box

Improving the public understanding of science is an important challenge for the future professional scientists who are our current undergraduates. In this paper, we present a conceptual model that explores the role of mass media as community gatekeepers of new scientific findings. This model frames the benefits for undergraduate science students to learn about media genres so that they can learn to communicate science more effectively to nonprofessional audiences. Informed by this Media Role model, we then detail a novel writing task for undergraduate physiology students, the Opinion Editorial (Op-Ed), and an accompanying Peer Review. The Op-Ed genre was directly taught to the students by a professional journalist. As an assessment task, students presented a recent, highly technical paper as an Op-Ed. This was assessed by both faculty members and peers using a detailed assessment rubric. Most students were able to replicate the features of Op-Eds and attained high grades on their writing tasks. Survey data from final-year physiology students (n = 230) were collected before and after the implementation of the Op-Ed/Peer Review. These indicated that most students were aware of the importance of scientists to effectively communicate their knowledge to nonprofessional audiences, that the Op-Ed writing task was challenging, and that they believed that their ability to write to nonprofessional audiences was improved after explicit teaching and feedback.

O MAL NA LITERATURA MACHADIANA: UMA LEITURA TEOLÓGICA E FILOSÓFICA DA OBRA QUINCAS BORBA, DE MACHADO DE ASSIS

A presente pesquisa apresenta um estudo sobre o mal a partir da leitura da obra Quincas Borba, de Machado de Assis, tendo como referência um viés da teologia e da filosofia uma vez que este problema historicamente suscitou questionamentos em ambos os campos do conhecimento. Concomitantemente, pretendemos apontar para a possibilidade de uma obra literária fazer surgir uma reflexão teológica e filosófica, sem contanto, ser necessário provar a religiosidade do escritor ou desvelar uma doutrina filosófica criada pelo mesmo. Para tanto, propomos como autores de base os teólogos Andrés Torres Queiruga, Juan Antonio Estrada, e a teóloga Ivone Gebara, e os filósofos Paul Ric ur, Blaise Pascal e Arthur Schopenhauer. Ao mesmo tempo, damos uma relevância ao livro do Eclesiastes, do qual o escritor carioca era leitor assíduo. Com isso, pretendemos evidenciar e compreender mais profundamente na já mencionada obra machadiana a presença do mal em suas mais facetadas manifestações nas relações humanas.

Fuga da promessa e nostalgia do divino: a antropologia de Dom Casmurro de Machado de Assis como tema no diálogo entre teologia e literatura

A ocupação principal deste trabalho residiu no diálogo entre a teologia e a literatura, primordialmente no interior do romance machadiano Dom Casmurro. Esta dissertação preconizou a antropologia emergente no romance machadiano em questão, como lugar das reflexões de cunho teológico. Para pauta de discussões, foram trazidas obras referenciais, que se apresentaram como o estado atual da questão acerca do diálogo entre teologia e literatura. A sustentação teórica deste trabalho se deu com apropriações conceituais de Paul Ricoeur, Antonio Carlos de Melo Magalhães e Gerard Genette. Portanto, o objetivo deste trabalho se delimitou na demonstração das relações entre o Deus que se revela e o humano machadiano, a partir do caráter antropológico do romance Dom Casmurro. A promessa e o caráter paratextual do capítulo em que ela é narrada, conduziram todas as análises realizadas, que culminaram na observação do antropológico como tema central do romance. Defendemos que a quebra das relações estabelecidas entre o humano machadiano e o Deus da promessa estabeleceu a instalação de um mundo desencantado diante da existência e da realidade do protagonista do romance, Bento Santiago.(AU)

PARA UMA POÉTICA DA VITALIDADE: religião e antropologia na escritura machadiana (Uma leitura de Memórias póstumas de Brás Cubas, de Machado de Assis)

A literatura de Machado de Assis foi revisitada nesta tese porque tínhamos a convicção de que o tema da religião e suas implicações para o ser humano machadiano se constituíam como uma tarefa de investigação que esperava por ser feita. Para localizar o objetivo central da presente tese no campo das discussões travadas entre religião e literatura construímos, na primeira parte, um caminho que nos levou a constatação da efetiva aproximação entre elas. Amparados pela inabarcável discussão que trata das imagens religiosas e teológicas presentes nos textos literários, bem como pelas inúmeras construções metodológicas que visam a propiciar uma aproximação mais profícua entre religião e literatura, buscamos uma interpretação da literatura machadiana que apontasse para a expressão religiosa do ponto de vista de sua antropologia. O nosso eixo interpretativo foi construído a partir da teoria hermenêutica de Paul Ricoeur, mais especificamente a partir do conceito de metáfora. A reflexão que construímos em torno da expressão religiosa da antropologia machadiana foi inicialmente devedora do conceito de vitalidade de Jürgen Moltmann. A expressão religiosa da antropologia machadiana emergida do romance Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas (1881) apresenta-se sob a perspectiva de uma incondicionalidade a partir da qual a vida de Brás Cubas é tomada. Esta característica da antropologia machadiana fez com que estabelecêssemos um recurso conceitual para dar conta de sua particularidade. Propomos, portanto, que o ser humano do espaço literário machadiano seja chamado de homo vitalis.(AU)

PUBLICIDADE E O CONSUMO INFANTIL: Uma abordagem crítica

A sociedade de consumo contemporânea apresenta inúmeras produções textuais envolvendo a temática publicidade e consumo infantil . Sua complexidade divide opiniões, favoráveis e desfavoráveis, a respeito da legitimidade, da ética e da moral da publicidade dirigida à criança. Esta tese apresenta o cenário atual da publicidade infantil brasileira e como as crianças pensam, praticam e influenciam o consumo não planejado. A constituição do cenário infantil brasileiro foi desenvolvida em três etapas: a primeira, foi construída um painel da publicidade infantil , com a análise de 19 artigos científicos de todas as regiões do Brasil, que possibilitou a compreensão e a visão dos principais pesquisadores brasileiros sobre a temática, com isso, foram ouvidas, 433 crianças de 6 a 12 anos da classe socioeconômica A/B da cidade de Santos Litoral Sul do Estado de São Paulo, projetando a realidade que a publicidade exerce sobre o consumo infantil e a compra não planejada, na opinião das crianças. Na segunda etapa, foram ouvidos especialistas de diversas áreas e segmentos da sociedade, que se relacionam diretamente com o público infantil, que contribuíram com opiniões, críticas e visões dessa tendência comportamental das crianças modernas. Na terceira e última etapa, foram ouvidos, por intermédio de entrevista, os pais, objetivando compreender como e de que forma eles presenciam e contribuem para a compra não planejada dos seus filhos. O resultado revela as principais causas e efeitos que a publicidade direcionada para as crianças proporciona no comportamento de consumo e social da criança e da família (na opinião dos especialistas), os corresponsáveis desses efeitos e o que se espera para o cenário ético do consumo infantil brasileiro.

Current practice and opinion in special schools for the maladjusted in England and Wales

This study seeks to describe current practice and opinion in schools for the maladjusted in England and Wales and to exarnlne how far this coincides with earlier descriptions. A review of the literature provides an account of this earlier work, and data accrued from questionnaires completed by 114 schools describe current practice and opinion. The study represents the most extensive empirical enquiry into the work of these schools since 1955 and provides a wide data basis for future research and assessment of progress and change. The data suggest that there is much communality of practice and opinion within the schools, with most schools emphasising their therapeutic rather than their educational purpose. The work is characterised by the wide use and perceived efficacy of warm, caring adult to child relationships, improvement of pupil self-image through success, and individual counselling and discussion, which permeate a structure of routine, discipline and educational concern. Specialised treatments are not used widely and involve only a minority of pupils. Practice tends to be in reference to conduct disordered pupils who are now perceived as the largest single disorder group within the schools, whereas previously neurotic disorders formed the largest single group. The majority of pupils are perceived as underachieving on entry and requiring remedial help: consequently the educational programme has a remedial bias. For staff, qualities of personality are considered to be more valuable than professional skills. The schools differ in the emphasis they allocate to one or more of four identified areas of treatment described as concern for pupils' needs; degree of pupil participation; theoretical orientation: and the use of external controls. There is a diminished reference to psychoanalytical theory and an increased reference to behaviourist theory relative to previous practice. Similarly, the use and perceived importance and effectiveness of pupil participation and unconditional affection has diminished.

Public opinion and the making of foreign policy in the 'New Europe':a comparative study of Poland and Ukraine

Since 1989, by drawing a new boundary between the EU and its eastern neighbours, the European Union has created a frontier that has been popularly described in the frontier states as the new 'Berlin Wall'. This book is the first comparative study of the impact of public opinion on the making of foreign policy in two eastern European states that live on either side of the new European divide: Poland and Ukraine. Focusing on the vocal, informed segment of public opinion and drawing on results of both opinion polls and a series of innovative focus groups gathered since the Orange Revolution, Nathaniel Copsey unravels the mystery of how this crucial segment of the public impacts on foreign policy-makers in both states. In developing this argument, Copsey takes a closer look at the business community and how important economic factors are in forming public opinion. Filling a gap in the literature currently available on the topic, this book presents a fresh approach to our understanding of Polish-Ukrainian relations and how the public's view of the past influences contemporary politics. It is an ideal resource for those researching in the field of Russian and Eastern European Studies.

Opinion leaders' role in innovation diffusion:a simulation study

This study investigates the critical role that opinion leaders (or influentials) play in the adoption process of new products. Recent existing reseach evidence indicates a limited effect of opinion leaders on diffusion processes, yet these studies take into account merely the network position of opinion leaders without addressing their influential power. Empirical findings of our study show that opinion leaders, in addition to having a more central network position, possess more accurate knowledge about a product and tend to be less susceptible to norms and more innovative. Experiments that address these attributes, using an agent-based model, demonstrate that opinion leaders increase the speed of the information stream and the adoption process itself. Furthermore, they increase the maximum adoption percentage. These results indicate that targeting opinion leaders remains a valuable marketing strategy.