Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle.

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.

Orographic drag associated with lee waves trapped at an inversion

The drag produced by 2D orographic gravity waves trapped at a temperature inversion and waves propagating in the stably stratified layer existing above are explicitly calculated using linear theory, for a two-layer atmosphere with neutral static stability near the surface, mimicking a well-mixed boundary layer. For realistic values of the flow parameters, trapped lee wave drag, which is given by a closed analytical expression, is comparable to propagating wave drag, especially in moderately to strongly non-hydrostatic conditions. In resonant flow, both drag components substantially exceed the single-layer hydrostatic drag estimate used in most parametrization schemes. Both drag components are optimally amplified for a relatively low-level inversion and Froude numbers Fr ≈ 1. While propagating wave drag is maximized for approximately hydrostatic flow, trapped lee wave drag is maximized for l_2 a = O(1) (where l_2 is the Scorer parameter in the stable layer and a is the mountain width). This roughly happens when the horizontal scale of trapped lee waves matches that of the mountain slope. The drag behavior as a function of Fr for l_2 H = 0.5 (where H is the inversion height) and different values of l2a shows good agreement with numerical simulations. Regions of parameter space with high trapped lee wave drag correlate reasonably well with those where lee wave rotors were found to occur in previous nonlinear numerical simulations including frictional effects. This suggests that trapped lee wave drag, besides giving a relevant contribution to low-level drag exerted on the atmosphere, may also be useful to diagnose lee rotor formation.

The bile acid receptor TGR5 does not interact with β-arrestins or traffic to endosomes but transmits sustained signals from plasma membrane rafts.

TGR5 is a G protein-coupled receptor that mediates bile acid (BA) effects on energy balance, inflammation, digestion and sensation. The mechanisms and spatiotemporal control of TGR5 signaling are poorly understood. We investigated TGR5 signaling and trafficking in transfected HEK293 cells and colonocytes (NCM460) that endogenously express TGR5. BAs (deoxycholic acid, DCA, taurolithocholic acid, TLCA) and the selective agonists oleanolic acid (OA) and 3-(2-chlorophenyl)-N-(4-chlorophenyl)-N, 5-dimethylisoxazole-4-carboxamide (CCDC) stimulated cAMP formation but did not induce TGR5 endocytosis or recruitment of β-arrestins, assessed by confocal microscopy. DCA, TLCA and OA did not stimulate TGR5 association with β-arrestin 1/2 or G protein-coupled receptor kinase (GRK) 2/5/6, determined by bioluminescence resonance energy transfer. CCDC stimulated a low level of TGR5 interaction with β-arrestin2 and GRK2. DCA induced cAMP formation at the plasma membrane and cytosol, determined using exchange factor directly regulated by cAMP (Epac2)-based reporters, but cAMP signals did not desensitize. AG1478, an inhibitor of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase, the metalloprotease inhibitor batimastat, and methyl-β-cyclodextrin and filipin, which block lipid raft formation, prevented DCA stimulation of extracellular signal regulated kinase (ERK1/2). BRET analysis revealed TGR5 and EGFR interactions that were blocked by disruption of lipid rafts. DCA stimulated TGR5 redistribution to plasma membrane microdomains, localized by immunogold electron microscopy. Thus, TGR5 does not interact with β-arrestins, desensitize or traffic to endosomes. TGR5 signals from plasma membrane rafts that facilitate EGFR interaction and transactivation. An understanding of the spatiotemporal control of TGR5 signaling provides insights into the actions of BAs and therapeutic TGR5 agonists/antagonists.

Error, reproducibility and sensitivity: a pipeline for data processing of Agilent oligonucleotide expression arrays

Background: Expression microarrays are increasingly used to obtain large scale transcriptomic information on a wide range of biological samples. Nevertheless, there is still much debate on the best ways to process data, to design experiments and analyse the output. Furthermore, many of the more sophisticated mathematical approaches to data analysis in the literature remain inaccessible to much of the biological research community. In this study we examine ways of extracting and analysing a large data set obtained using the Agilent long oligonucleotide transcriptomics platform, applied to a set of human macrophage and dendritic cell samples. Results: We describe and validate a series of data extraction, transformation and normalisation steps which are implemented via a new R function. Analysis of replicate normalised reference data demonstrate that intrarray variability is small (only around 2 of the mean log signal), while interarray variability from replicate array measurements has a standard deviation (SD) of around 0.5 log(2) units (6 of mean). The common practise of working with ratios of Cy5/Cy3 signal offers little further improvement in terms of reducing error. Comparison to expression data obtained using Arabidopsis samples demonstrates that the large number of genes in each sample showing a low level of transcription reflect the real complexity of the cellular transcriptome. Multidimensional scaling is used to show that the processed data identifies an underlying structure which reflect some of the key biological variables which define the data set. This structure is robust, allowing reliable comparison of samples collected over a number of years and collected by a variety of operators. Conclusions: This study outlines a robust and easily implemented pipeline for extracting, transforming normalising and visualising transcriptomic array data from Agilent expression platform. The analysis is used to obtain quantitative estimates of the SD arising from experimental (non biological) intra- and interarray variability, and for a lower threshold for determining whether an individual gene is expressed. The study provides a reliable basis for further more extensive studies of the systems biology of eukaryotic cells.

Vertical distribution and radiative effects of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosol over West Africa during DABEX

This paper presents measurements of the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction coefficient over West Africa during the Dust and Biomass-burning Aerosol Experiment (DABEX)/African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis dry season Special Observing Period Zero (AMMA-SOP0). In situ aircraft measurements from the UK FAAM aircraft have been compared with two ground-based lidars (POLIS and ARM MPL) and an airborne lidar on an ultralight aircraft. In general, mineral dust was observed at low altitudes (up to 2 km), and a mixture of biomass burning aerosol and dust was observed at altitudes of 2–5 km. The study exposes difficulties associated with spatial and temporal variability when intercomparing aircraft and ground measurements. Averaging over many profiles provided a better means of assessing consistent errors and biases associated with in situ sampling instruments and retrievals of lidar ratios. Shortwave radiative transfer calculations and a 3-year simulation with the HadGEM2-A climate model show that the radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol was somewhat sensitive to the vertical distribution of aerosol. In particular, when the observed low-level dust layer was included in the model, the absorption of solar radiation by the biomass burning aerosols increased by 10%. We conclude that this absorption enhancement was caused by the dust reflecting solar radiation up into the biomass burning aerosol layer. This result illustrates that the radiative forcing of anthropogenic absorbing aerosol can be sensitive to the presence of natural aerosol species.

Child anxiety and parenting in England and Italy: the moderating role of maternal warmth

BACKGROUND: Parenting factors have been implicated in the aetiology and maintenance of child anxiety. Most research has been correlational with little experimental or longitudinal work. Cross-cultural comparison could be illuminating. A comparison of Italian and British children and their mothers was conducted. METHODS: A sample of 8- to 10-year old children, 60 Italian and 49 English, completed the Spence Child Anxiety Scale. Mothers also completed two questionnaires of parenting: the Skills of Daily Living Checklist (assessing maternal autonomy granting) and the Parent-Child Interaction Questionnaire (assessing maternal intrusiveness). Parenting was assessed in two video-recorded blindly rated mother-child interaction tasks, the 'belt-buckling tasks and the 'etch-a-sketch', providing objective indices of overcontrol, warmth, lack of autonomy granting, and overprotection. RESULTS: There were no differences between the children in overall anxiety and specific forms of anxiety. Parenting, however, was markedly different for the two countries. Compared to English mothers, on the two questionnaires, Italian mothers were significantly less autonomy granting and more intrusive; and in terms of the observed indices, a significantly greater proportion of the Italian mothers displayed a high level of both overprotection and overcontrol, and a low level of autonomy granting. Notably, Italian mothers evidenced significantly more warmth than English mothers; and maternal warmth was found to moderate the impact of self-reported maternal intrusiveness on the level of both overall child anxiety and the level of child separation anxiety; and it also moderated the relationship between both observed maternal intrusiveness and overall child anxiety and observed maternal overprotectiveness and child separation anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Although, compared to the British mothers, the Italian mothers were more likely to evidence high levels of parenting behaviours previously found to be anxiogenic, the high levels of warmth displayed by these mothers to their children appears to have neutralised the adverse impact of these behaviours.

Examining vulnerability to involuntary memories in schizophrenia comorbid with post-traumatic stress disorder

The current study explored whether individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia and a high level of PTSD symptoms experience more frequent neutral intrusive memories than individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia with low level PTSD symptoms. Results supported a vulnerability to neutral intrusive memories within the comorbid group, which did not seem to be related to psychotic symptom severity. It is possible that a subgroup of psychotic individuals’ process information in a manner that make them susceptible to frequent intrusive memories, characteristic of a PTSD presentation. A longitudinal study is required to specify the development of this vulnerability so as to inform future interventions.

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

The grass-free lawn: management and species choice for optimum ground cover and plant diversity

In Britain, managed grass lawns provide the most traditional and widespread of garden and landscape practices in use today. Grass lawns are coming under increasing challenge as they tend to support a low level of biodiversity and can require substantial additional inputs to maintain. Here we apply a novel approach to the traditional monocultural lawnscape by replacing grasses entirely with clonal perennial forbs. We monitored changes in plant coverage and species composition over a two year period and here we report the results of a study comparing plant origin native, non-native and mixed) and mowing regime. This allows us to assess the viability of this construct as an alternative to traditional grass lawns. Grass-free lawns provided a similar level of plant cover to grass lawns. Both the mowing regime and the combination of species used affected this outcome, with native plant species seen to have the highest survival rates, and mowing at 4cm to produce the greatest amount of ground coverage and plant species diversity within grass-free lawns. Grass-free lawns required over 50% less mowing than a traditionally managed grass lawn. Observations suggest that plant forms that exhibited: a) a relatively fast growth rate, b) a relatively large individual leaf area, and c) an average leaf height substantially above the cut to be applied, were unsuitable for use in grass-free lawns. With an equivalent level of ground coverage to grass lawns, increased plant diversity and a reduced need for mowing, the grass-free lawn can be seen as a species diverse, lower input and potentially highly ornamental alternative to the traditional lawn format.

Humans use predictive kinematic models to calibrate visual cues to three-dimensional surface slant

When the sensory consequences of an action are systematically altered our brain can recalibrate the mappings between sensory cues and properties of our environment. This recalibration can be driven by both cue conflicts and altered sensory statistics, but neither mechanism offers a way for cues to be calibrated so they provide accurate information about the world, as sensory cues carry no information as to their own accuracy. Here, we explored whether sensory predictions based on internal physical models could be used to accurately calibrate visual cues to 3D surface slant. Human observers played a 3D kinematic game in which they adjusted the slant of a surface so that a moving ball would bounce off the surface and through a target hoop. In one group, the ball’s bounce was manipulated so that the surface behaved as if it had a different slant to that signaled by visual cues. With experience of this altered bounce, observers recalibrated their perception of slant so that it was more consistent with the assumed laws of kinematics and physical behavior of the surface. In another group, making the ball spin in a way that could physically explain its altered bounce eliminated this pattern of recalibration. Importantly, both groups adjusted their behavior in the kinematic game in the same way, experienced the same set of slants and were not presented with low-level cue conflicts that could drive the recalibration. We conclude that observers use predictive kinematic models to accurately calibrate visual cues to 3D properties of world.

Heuristic based evolution for the coordination of autonomous vehicles in the absence of speed lanes

The current state of the art in the planning and coordination of autonomous vehicles is based upon the presence of speed lanes. In a traffic scenario where there is a large diversity between vehicles the removal of speed lanes can generate a significantly higher traffic bandwidth. Vehicle navigation in such unorganized traffic is considered. An evolutionary based trajectory planning technique has the advantages of making driving efficient and safe, however it also has to surpass the hurdle of computational cost. In this paper, we propose a real time genetic algorithm with Bezier curves for trajectory planning. The main contribution is the integration of vehicle following and overtaking behaviour for general traffic as heuristics for the coordination between vehicles. The resultant coordination strategy is fast and near-optimal. As the vehicles move, uncertainties may arise which are constantly adapted to, and may even lead to either the cancellation of an overtaking procedure or the initiation of one. Higher level planning is performed by Dijkstra's algorithm which indicates the route to be followed by the vehicle in a road network. Re-planning is carried out when a road blockage or obstacle is detected. Experimental results confirm the success of the algorithm subject to optimal high and low-level planning, re-planning and overtaking.

Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from flight legs typically ∼40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (∼12 km) from 26 flights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk flux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several flights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic influence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coefficients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coefficient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Office models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher fluxes and exchange coefficients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length.

Simulation of the global ENSO–Tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model

This study assesses the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global tropical cyclone activity using a 150-yr-long integration with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model [High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM); with N144 resolution: ~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean]. Tropical cyclone activity is compared to an atmosphere-only simulation using the atmospheric component of HiGEM (HiGAM). Observations of tropical cyclones in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and tropical cyclones identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to validate the models. Composite anomalies of tropical cyclone activity in El Niño and La Niña years are used. HiGEM is able to capture the shift in tropical cyclone locations to ENSO in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, HiGEM does not capture the expected ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic. HiGAM shows more skill in simulating the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection; however, variability in the Pacific is overpronounced. HiGAM is able to capture the ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic more accurately than HiGEM. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity, is used to further understand the response of tropical cyclone activity to ENSO in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. The vertical wind shear response over the Caribbean is not captured in HiGEM compared to HiGAM and ERA-Interim. Biases in the mean ascent at 500 hPa in HiGEM remain in HiGAM over the western North Pacific; however, a more realistic low-level vorticity in HiGAM results in a more accurate ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection.

The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central-Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase, is caused by an interaction between the Western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central-Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional Eastern-Pacific (or EP) El Niño events rather than in Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend further west towards to the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies thus are able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response.